How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Probus]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Visegrad, but it's confirmed:

So all Putin's efforts in Ukraine to make sure NATO doesn't creep any further East and now, quite possibly, NATO or the US is going to put Nukes that much closer to Moscow thanks to Poland.  Brilliant!

[Combatintman]

On 10/4/2022 at 9:20 AM, Butschi said:

When did that become an acknowledged fact here? Last time I asked if there was actual proof that there was early intel and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was due to that I was shouted down.

Since when did what become an acknowledged fact?  

To restate my point - the Afghan withdrawal pathway started in February 2020 and was supposed to have been put to bed well before it actually was put to bed.  There is an argument to say that it was sooner than that as the previous US administration was widely reported to be on the cusp of a deal in 2019 but stepped away from the dialogue in September 2019 following the death of US personnel in a Kabul IED attack.  From those start points the obvious question to ask in relation to the theory that the Afghan withdrawal is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in 2019 or 2020?

In my response to the reemergence of this canard ... President Biden announced the withdrawal decision on April 14, 2021 and being an insider on matters Afghan and somebody who regularly attended meetings at the European Delegation, HQ Resolute Support and the UK and US embassies, I can tell you for a fact that nobody in the international community in Kabul had any idea which way President Biden was going to go until the decision was announced.  The supplementary question; therefore, is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in April 2021?  The article I posted in my last post indicates that this was not the case until September 2021 which was after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C17 in Kabul. 

The main problem with politically motivated theories of this ilk (and this is one, because it has been doing the rounds for at least over a month now and the handling of the Afghan withdrawal is a subject of justified scrutiny in the US) is that very few people are prepared to run the facts down and, as I said in my August 18 post, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one

Feel free to challenge any of the above (on another thread) but Afghanistan and intelligence analysis is my day job, so it is always handy to have some facts to hand before doing so.

As to "actual proof that there was early intel" - that is a big ask - intelligence is generally classified and/or on a limited distribution.

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

[Butschi]

40 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK Germany has been quite vocal about their recognition of the historical fault in WW2?

Yes but tbh nowadays that is a set phrase that is often repeated on the the diplomatic floor or in speeches on Sunday but it rarely translates into action, much less money.

IMHO there is also a difference between guilt and responsibility. I can't accept guilt for something that my grandparents did. I see responsibility to remember and make sure such a thing didn't happen again.

Though, frankly, while this topic is discussed in more educated circles, the average German today doesn't care about guilt or responsibility, I think.

 

 

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

@danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?

Hi BeardieBloke.  That warning is my choice alone.  I do it so that someone can't say they were tricked into clicking for war coverage and then seeing things that upset their social/political sensibilities.  If anyone clicks and gets triggered, well, they can't say I didn't warn them.  The UKR articles there are all solid, but the sidebar links might fire some people up. 

[FancyCat]

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

There was more in the article, but it was just quoting Oryx so I quoted out the stuff from Ukrainians.

I just wanna say, my lord they screwed themselves, the Russians. Also, I quite like the idea of crewing and keeping their well earned captures, even tho they aren't meant to have them lol.

Quote

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.  “We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.” 

The chief of staff of a Ukrainian artillery battalion on the Kharkiv front said his unit now operates four recently captured Russian 2S19 Msta 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, alongside American-made guns, and now has abundant Soviet-caliber ammunition.

While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added. 

Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war. 

“Gaining the trophies gives us a sense of pride and raises everyone’s combat spirits,” said the commander, who used a captured Russian assault rifle in a recent battle during which the battalion seized a village in the Donetsk region.

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/what-cost-nato-countries-win-war-ukraine

How much will it cost NATO nations for Ukraine to defeat Russia?

Quote

General Sir Richard Barrons told Forces News that Ukraine would require "about $6bn a month to pay for the economy and about $30-40bn a year in military aid".

 

[Harmon Rabb]

45 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

Not very surprising now, but if 15 years ago someone told me in 2022 Russia would be buying military equipment from Afghanistan. I would have a hard time believing them.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[paxromana]

7 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

How much will it cost NATO nations for Ukraine to defeat Russia?

More to the point, what will the cost be if NATO nations don't support Ukraine to defeat Russia?

[Kinophile]

Man, I love the backflip symmetrical beauty of UKR with ****ty T64s beating RUS forces and capturing T80/90s, then using those more modern MBTs against the replacement RUS tanks that are... T62s. 

Perfect. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com

Another flag.... Notable that these guys self organized without the pressure of combat losses to get them stirred up. Someone motivated them, informed them and organized them to a  take a stand, despite threat of law enforcement. 

From little acorns... 

 

[Beleg85]

40 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK Germany has been quite vocal about their recognition of the historical fault in WW2?

There are official narrations and unofficial ones. In first it is true German gov. takes full responsbility (it cannot be otherwise, as they they are bounded by law). It is also fair to say German society as a whole did very good job at recognizing and internalizing their historical faults, which is very difficult thing to implement in reality.

Unfortunatelly, in reality we often encounter parallel narrations, when German common social conciousness do everything to push away responsibility by victim blaming, selective historical readings or focusing on own suffering.  There is still plenty of that in common communications; one just need to remember public figures like Erica Steinbach or former chancellor Schroeder. Add traditional Prussian (not German) language of disregard for Eastern neighours considered inferior  and "stateless" (not only against Poles, but also Czechs, Balts, Russians, Ukrainians etc.- it's surprising how this superiority complex simply don't want to die in practice, even after so many years), urge of DE oligarchic elites to make business with Russia at any cost, visible elements of economical colonialism in CEE, and -on CEE side- slow deconstruction of liberal democracy and rise of populism in many states.

In the effect we have a problem with common relations that goes well beyond differences re Russia. But perhaps we shouldn't talk about this issue too much here again, as it is deeply polarizing and may distract us from observing war.

 

Let's focus on new geopolitical devlopments...like sudden rise of Czech Navy.

 

 

 

[Grossman]

52 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Since when did what become an acknowledged fact?  

To restate my point - the Afghan withdrawal pathway started in February 2020 and was supposed to have been put to bed well before it actually was put to bed.  There is an argument to say that it was sooner than that as the previous US administration was widely reported to be on the cusp of a deal in 2019 but stepped away from the dialogue in September 2019 following the death of US personnel in a Kabul IED attack.  From those start points the obvious question to ask in relation to the theory that the Afghan withdrawal is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in 2019 or 2020?

In my response to the reemergence of this canard ... President Biden announced the withdrawal decision on April 14, 2021 and being an insider on matters Afghan and somebody who regularly attended meetings at the European Delegation, HQ Resolute Support and the UK and US embassies, I can tell you for a fact that nobody in the international community in Kabul had any idea which way President Biden was going to go until the decision was announced.  The supplementary question; therefore, is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in April 2021?  The article I posted in my last post indicates that this was not the case until September 2021 which was after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C17 in Kabul. 

The main problem with politically motivated theories of this ilk (and this is one, because it has been doing the rounds for at least over a month now and the handling of the Afghan withdrawal is a subject of justified scrutiny in the US) is that very few people are prepared to run the facts down and, as I said in my August 18 post, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one

Feel free to challenge any of the above (on another thread) but Afghanistan and intelligence analysis is my day job, so it is always handy to have some facts to hand before doing so.

As to "actual proof that there was early intel" - that is a big ask - intelligence is generally classified and/or on a limited distribution.

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

A good explanation. Russia started messing with European gas supplies in the spring 2021. Putin gave all kinds of reasons to limit the sale of spot gas, used to built up storage for the winter. It was obvious to alot of people that this was a precursor to something more serious, but most from the outside thought Putin would go for full scale invasion, although Russian watchers figured this was the first step in Putin's dream to reestablish Greater Mother Russia. We don't know the level of intel in the US administration, maybe there was/is a high level of penetration. The odds are quitting Afghanistan was fortunate precautionary timing 

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com

Another flag.... Notable that these guys self organized without the pressure of combat losses to get them stirred up. Someone motivated them, informed them and organized them to a  take a stand, despite threat of law enforcement. 

From little acorns... 

 

They got motivated from Telegram. Several RU Nat/Reporters/Propagandists channels put public pressure to resolve such cases. They literally asked mobilized to make a stand and report the issues they have promising everything will be fixed.

Telegram is big phenomena now in RU.

[LongLeftFlank]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Let's focus on new geopolitical devlopments...like sudden rise of Czech Navy.

Sorry, after hanging out in Bohemian bars in Toronto, NYC, DC and San Fran in my younger years, and in married middle age, simply walking by the Czech airlines check-in counters at any airport (filled with long-legged blonde stunners), I can tell you that any guys left alive in.... the Artist Formerly Known as Kaliningrad should be crawling on their knees to achieve this Anschluss!

Edited October 5, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry, after hanging out in Bohemian bars in Toronto, NYC, DC and San Fran in my younger years, and in married middle age, simply walking by the Czech airlines check-in counters at any airport (filled with long-legged blonde stunners), I can tell you that any guys left alive in.... the Artist Formerly Known as Kaliningrad should be crawling on their knees to achieve this Anschluss!

Somebody might be suffering from beer goggles

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, sburke said:

Somebody might be suffering from beer goggles

Oh, and did I mention the beer is damned good?

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry, after hanging out in Bohemian bars in Toronto, NYC, DC and San Fran in my younger years, and in married middle age, simply walking by the Czech airlines check-in counters at any airport (filled with long-legged blonde stunners), I can tell you that any guys left alive in.... the Artist Formerly Known as Kaliningrad should be crawling on their knees to achieve this Anschluss!

Oh boy...something tells me CZS "Karel Gott" may be in the making:

Reportedly Russian propaganda start to take those jokes seriously.

[Bulletpoint]

19 hours ago, acrashb said:

Time will tell as international CSI types show up and lend their expertise and credibility.

For now, regarding "they wouldn't just put them in a ... box" - the Nazis did, so why not the RA of today?  The boxes of 80 years ago look eerily similar:

 

 

Yes, a box looks like a box.

[Grigb]

Looks like we are on the verge of another regrouping in Kherson. Few hours ago, RU reported UKR started major assault. I was waiting for confirmation but just now RU solders from there reported:

Quote

I assess the situation in our direction as COMPLETELY F*CKED UP. And what the f*ck is going on [on our side] is still a mystery to me.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

Since when did what become an acknowledged fact?  

To restate my point - the Afghan withdrawal pathway started in February 2020 and was supposed to have been put to bed well before it actually was put to bed.  There is an argument to say that it was sooner than that as the previous US administration was widely reported to be on the cusp of a deal in 2019 but stepped away from the dialogue in September 2019 following the death of US personnel in a Kabul IED attack.  From those start points the obvious question to ask in relation to the theory that the Afghan withdrawal is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in 2019 or 2020?

In my response to the reemergence of this canard ... President Biden announced the withdrawal decision on April 14, 2021 and being an insider on matters Afghan and somebody who regularly attended meetings at the European Delegation, HQ Resolute Support and the UK and US embassies, I can tell you for a fact that nobody in the international community in Kabul had any idea which way President Biden was going to go until the decision was announced.  The supplementary question; therefore, is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in April 2021?  The article I posted in my last post indicates that this was not the case until September 2021 which was after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C17 in Kabul. 

The main problem with politically motivated theories of this ilk (and this is one, because it has been doing the rounds for at least over a month now and the handling of the Afghan withdrawal is a subject of justified scrutiny in the US) is that very few people are prepared to run the facts down and, as I said in my August 18 post, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one

Feel free to challenge any of the above (on another thread) but Afghanistan and intelligence analysis is my day job, so it is always handy to have some facts to hand before doing so.

As to "actual proof that there was early intel" - that is a big ask - intelligence is generally classified and/or on a limited distribution.

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

At some point in the future you and The_Capt need to write a book about Afghanistan. Between the two of you there is is just too much knowledge, history, and lessons learned not to get it all on paper. We will do a kickstarter if needed to get you off the ground on the project. I realize it might be five years from now, depending on who knows what, but it needs doing.

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like we are on the verge of another regrouping in Kherson. Few hours ago, RU reported UKR started major assault. I was waiting for confirmation but just now RU solders from there reported:

 

Such confusion is deeply satisfying. 

[Grigb]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like we are on the verge of another regrouping in Kherson. Few hours ago, RU reported UKR started major assault. I was waiting for confirmation but just now RU solders from there reported:

 

RU claims UKR are pushing from all three sides - Mykolaev, Andriev and Dudchany. Lates report - situation at Mykolaevv direction is very difficult.

[RandomCommenter]

Good video on Nordstream pipeline.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

So are these newly arrived ghazni true to the line of Fatima or followers of martyred Ali?

Wouldn't it be simpler just to say 'Syrian light infantry sent by Assad'?  With ZERO prior experience engaging an enemy now enjoying fire superiority at all echelons.

[Grigb]

Comedy break - after experiencing success with public pressure coordinated through uncensored Telegram anti-liberal RU started to turn to Western Democracy:

Quote

The host of the "talk show" "60 minutes" Evgeny Skobeev Popov, one of the main propagandists of Russian TV, suddenly became a liberal. He began to speak out on social networks about freedom of speech, assembly, independent trade unions and even for an impartial court. As if he is Navalny...

Popov is far from the first guardian [faction] who over the past couple of weeks suddenly remembered the values of democracy. One of Igor Strelkov's best friends, military expert Maxim Klimov, began to talk about it constantly. In between discussing the situation on the fronts and the possibility of a nuclear strike, he suddenly began to declare about the "need for feedback" between citizens and the government, which is "completely destroyed [by the Kremlin]", the freedom to criticize the government and the importance of "telling people the truth about the situation." And Strelkov himself seems to be slowly drifting towards democracy. At least, a nuclear strike on Ukraine, in his opinion, "will be worse than a crime — it will be a mistake."

However, these guys have not yet surpassed the powerful speech of Margarita Simonyan, who said to the RU pubic the other day "not to lie" and who received [sh*t] from both liberals and imperialists [RU Nats] for this. It remains to wait until Vladimir "The Abominable Liberota" Solovyov sees the light [of Democracy]

The author mixed up factions a bit - Klimov is not from Guardians, he is from Girkinites.