How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

From LostArmour: elements of 35th MRB of 41st CAA substitited elements of 503rd MRR near Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia oblast

Elements of 503rd MRR of 19th MRD (according to Mashovets - four "combat groups", maybe means company groups) were moved recently to Lyman from Zaporizhzhia oblast

Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

He definitely enjoyed himself  I wonder what he means by cockroaches though...

 

[Haiduk]

UKR sapper with twitter name Falcon received a gift from his friend, also soldier with twitter name Soldier of Fortune - the captured Russian new portable mine detectyor IMP-3, which was adopted several years ago. He says first imaginations are exellent. Though, he noticed, the case with detector was sealed - for seven months of war this device didn't touch the hand of sapper. Either there wern't trained personnel or Russian commander just kept expensive equipment in order do not lost it or ir wasn't damaged/stolen by untrained personnel, or unit still use old Soviet IMP-2, when newest and better equipment kept under lock.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I really like Perun but he is a civilian that appears to work deeply on the corporate side of things.  Sometimes when he wanders into military operations he gets a little off-menu - he has stated this multiple times.

So in order for the Russia mobilization to become “extremely significant” the Russian military needs to overcome much more than it mobilization challenges - it would have to rebuild a better military than it had on 23 Feb.  The RA is demonstrating it lags significantly in the stuff that really matters at this level of warfare - C4ISR, logistics and joint capabilities.  I have watched the RA repeatedly conduct unsynchronized and uncoordinated operations, while the UA does the opposite.  The Russian missile campaign should have been able to cut up Ukrainian infrastructure, both physical and information, if it was coordinated and armed with comparable ISR - they have not done this, instead leaning on terror strikes like this was 1940.  The closest we have seen was the strikes on those dam-locks but I am still not sure of the military value of that action.

If the UA managed to pull off two river crossings it is also a sign that the RA is lagging.  As we saw last spring, a major river obstacle crossing in an environment where ISR is everywhere should be next to impossible, yet the UA appears to have done it. So what? The RA can’t see them, or if they can, they can not act on it.

It will not matter if Russia can get 1 million men in uniform with rusty AKs on the line, if they cannot command, support and coordination those troops they are just going to die - pretty efficiently based on what we have seen from the UA.

I suspect that this war will go down as “the last war of the 20th century versus one of the first of the 21st”.  We have had the preludes in Iraq, Ukraine in 2014 - where the symmetry was reversed, Ukraine fighting like it was 1989 and the Russians fighting like it was 2005, and Armenia.

If the RA suddenly started to demonstrate a 21st century C4ISR architecture, I would be shocked and frankly we would have to rethink this war.  However, despite attempts (see Iranian drones), this is not about sensors, it is about boring things like All Source Intel Fusion and communications. - that takes years to build, years that Russia does not have.

Finally the fact that Russia thinks that mobilization of mass is a solution demonstrates that amateurs on the Russian side are running their war.

Thanks for these thoughts. Also, small point, when reading the PERUN summary, something like don’t underestimate the impact of 300,000 troops. “Troops?” Might be getting to persnickety semantic, but might the term “troops” be extremely misleading? At least as widely described, many if not all are either being thrown in practically just of the streets - or supposedly after a flawed Cliff Notes version of that was less than a CM single Tutorial. Even that 3rd AK was well equipped and had maybe the CM Training Campaign level. And has been badly ineffective. Rather than calling a mass like that now…amassing!…”troops”, aren’t they really nothing much more than the apt label, a mob with guns”?
 

Add to that your insights about the utter failure of any degree of modern intelligence, planning and leadership. The result of the mobilization looks like the destruction of a significant percentage of the productive male demographic. In a country already challenged demographically. Can the sum total of the highest Russian authorities actually be THIS suicidal?
 

 

[dan/california]

Ukraine is THE capital of trolling.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Thanks for these thoughts. Also, small point, when reading the PERUN summary, something like don’t underestimate the impact of 300,000 troops. “Troops?” Might be getting to persnickety semantic, but might the term “troops” be extremely misleading? At least as widely described, many if not all are either being thrown in practically just of the streets - or supposedly after a flawed Cliff Notes version of that was less than a CM single Tutorial. Even that 3rd AK was well equipped and had maybe the CM Training Campaign level. And has been badly ineffective. Rather than calling a mass like that now…amassing!…”troops”, aren’t they really nothing much more than the apt label, a mob with guns”?
 

Add to that your insights about the utter failure of any degree of modern intelligence, planning and leadership. The result of the mobilization looks like the destruction of a significant percentage of the productive male demographic. In a country already challenged demographically. Can the sum total of the highest Russian authorities actually be THIS suicidal?
 

 

What will the impact be of ANOTHER 100,000 zinc coffins. Although they will probably be down to cack handed pine boxes well before that point.

[Haiduk]

-1 Buk

 

[Haiduk]

Here is Russsin TG writing. Briefly - Ukrainains attack hard on north, they have many personnel and vehicles, on some sections of frontline they have success. They breakthrough watermellon, we slightly withdrew, we have tough showdown here. The road completely under their artillery control

Interesting phrase "breakthrough watermellon". Very likely he says about area where watermellon monument stands on T-2207 and T-0403 roads junction. So likely UKR troops pushed section of frontline between Khreshchenivka and Zolota Balka villages

 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is Russsin TG writing. Briefly - Ukrainains attack hard on north, they have many personnel and vehicles, on some sections of frontline they have success. They breakthrough watermellon, we slightly withdrew, we have tough showdown here. The road completely under their artillery control

Interesting phrase "breakthrough watermellon". Very likely he says about area where watermellon monument stands on T-2207 and T-0403 roads junction. So likely UKR troops pushed section of frontline between Khreshchenivka and Zolota Balka villages

 

The watermelon has been secured.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by akd

[Bulletpoint]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

-1 Buk

 

Good. I have not forgotten MH17.

[NamEndedAllen]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

What will the impact be of ANOTHER 100,000 zinc coffins. Although they will probably be down to cack handed pine boxes well before that point.

Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart:

It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart:

It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.

There's actually one nation with worse demographics: China.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

The watermelon has been secured.

 

On Deepstate map this area since 20th of Sep was painted with grey. Lower twitter says UKR troops advance to Osokorivka, but this village already under our control since 7th of Apri and we didn't lost it anymore.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Time to wrap up the North part of the bridge head?

[Tenses]

This is actually quite common pyramid in Europe. Look at Italy, I think this is the "worst" one(in Europe). I guess that their unemployment problem will end too quickly for their liking.

[Bulletpoint]

26 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart:

It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.

This is only a problem if there's a welfare state providing support for the elderly. In Russia, I guess the old people will just be left in the lurch to boil up whatever beetroot soup they are able.

[TheVulture]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Somewhere on the south

 

We've not seen a lot of footage of mechanised forces (better opsec amongst other things I guess), but that looks like they are staging a push with some heavy forces there. Good luck everyone.

 

EDIT: And then I saw MonkeyKing's post about a Ukraine mechanised attack north of Kherson. 

I think the Ukraine general staff are going to be the definitive source of information on operational art on a 21st century battlefield, and how to make it work in practice.

Edited October 1, 2022 by TheVulture

[Peregrine]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Putin signs a decree on the exclusion of Lyman from Russia

He will need to do it in pencil or have lots of space left of the page to add some more.

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is only a problem if there's a welfare state providing support for the elderly. In Russia, I guess the old people will just be left in the lurch to boil up whatever beetroot soup they are able.

They have at least one cannibal in the military so maybe they figure the problem will "solve itself"

[NamEndedAllen]

47 minutes ago, Tenses said:

This is actually quite common pyramid in Europe. Look at Italy, I think this is the "worst" one(in Europe). I guess that their unemployment problem will end too quickly for their liking.

Yes it is, throughout the West and also Japan, and as was mentioned China too. It is the choice in the wealthier nations to have fewer children per family. But Russia had its guts practically torn out during WWII and they’ve never really recovered from that demographic catastrophe. Alcoholism and assorted woes have contributed in modern times to the overall ethnic Russian population becoming static, or iirc actually shrinking for the first time. 

This general tendency in the other economically strong nations is well recognized for many decades in Population Studies research journals. And it is an interesting but off topic struggle for nations to address falling younger demographics/working population with increased productivity per worker. But even that is creating issues; technologies replacing existing workers creates social tensions and disruptions. The world is always@ complicated place in which to make large scale decisions. My wife buts in and reminds me of decisions we, um, I made during the summer. But let’s not get into that! ;-:

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

My wife buts in and reminds me of decisions we, um, I made during the summer. But let’s not get into that! ;-:

"buts in" - inserts her much more well thought out observations to correct some inadvertent errors in your recall of events I think is how it is translated.  

Edited October 1, 2022 by sburke

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Alexey Kharechko, unit unknown:

Maj. Alexander Maslennikov:

Maj. Roman Skoartsa, Deputy Chief of Staff for Troops and Security of the Military Service, 120th Guards Artillery Brigade:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

23 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

They are really only left with a defensive capability set....

So as we are presently seeing in the Kherson bridgehead, their defensive capability appears to rest mainly on heavy artillery on call, just as it did when they were still on the offence in the summer.  And if the UA (or air force, hint hint) can find a way to disrupt that 'on call' part, the scheme largely collapses into isolated and doomed redoubts.

While they've indeed made broad use of mines, the famed (historical) Russian ability to dig in deeply and strongly without any special instruction to do so, and to stubbornly defend to the last man has been AWOL in this war* (Lyman/Yampil may be a recent exception).  They seem to act like a few hull down AFVs at the edge of a village equal a fortified position.

They should have been pouring cement like madmen all along the 'land bridge,' especially where the Dniepr doesn't present a barrier. But I'd think satellite imagery and OSINT mavens would pick it up were it happening.  I periodically search 'Volnovakha' and 'Polohy' and there's bupkis.

* Except on the Ukrainian side!

Looks like others have noticed the half-assed nature of Russian defences in this war.

 

I think back to 'Suvorov' (Razun) rhapsodizing about how each Soviet soldier's most important weapon was a little green spade, or the +1 modifier the Squad Leader Russians got to entrenchment attempts.

Nope, sometime in the 1960s the Russian soldier became wedded to his BTR or BMP and decided that was all the entrenchment he needed. To hell with digging or wiring in, or perimeter patrolling, or infiltration.  Cuts into the sergeant's drinking time.  Leave the mining to the pioneers. Even the mujahideen noticed in Afghanistan how the Russians just wouldn't come away from their vehicles.

....And seriously, if there's anything all those mobiks ought to be good for, it's digging holes. Except for all those over-40 guys with bad backs and shot knees.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

"buts in" - inserts her much more well thought out observations to correct some inadvertent errors in your recall of events I think is how it is translated.  

She does display that all too uncanny quite annoying ability.  She is sooo fortunate I stay with her! And yet, 32 years later, here we are. She remains One Fine Gal.

[LongLeftFlank]

Hoom haroom!

Also, the Entwives didn't go far....