How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

That Pegov started to suspect something

Quote

...Yes, there is no collapse of the economy in Russia yet, we are holding on, brothers. But I wouldn't flatter myself. If we do not reorient Russia to other sales markets, if we do not establish our own production, then a recession is inevitable. Things may develop in such a way that sooner or later Europe will still be able to abandon our mineral [resources]. [They] have already partially refused.

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Japan has a prohibition of using their Self-Defense Forces outside of their country in their Constitution. Does Germany, France, or any of the other EU members have a same or similar one in any of their Constitutions or Charters?

No, but when a German hears words like "war", "army", "gun", etc. he gets very different mental images than an American does.

[Huba]

Dmitry translated the latest Rybar update about Liman front. A few interesting bits:

- mobile UA units reached Zherebets on the north

- Svatovo - Kreminna road under (artillery I presume) fire

- RU defending bravely, definitely it looks like they do not intend to retreat.

Overall, the kessel seems to be practically closed 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Huba

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

No, but when a German hears words like "war", "army", "gun", etc. he gets very different mental images than an American does.

Everything after the "but" is true but the legal aspect is not that simple. Like Japan, our constitution allows using the Bundeswehr only in defense. However it also allows Germany to enter alliances for mutual security. So we can also defend our partners. And because of that our supreme court has ruled that we can also take part in other missions of these alliances because it would not work to just gain all the benefits without the duties involved. That allowed the Bundeswehr to deploy in Yugoslavia, for instance. But these kinds of missions cannot be decided by the government alone but have to be decided in parliament. Still, this whole business is somewhat of a grey area and many legal experts say the constiution needs to be changed to have this on a firm basis.

[Grigb]

RU will mobilize they said. It will build a huge army, they said. Meanwhile RU:

Quote

Factories, "Spetsremont" and liquidation of defense plants during SMO

Against the background of numerous demands for the mobilization of the economy and its transfer to military rails, the news about the bankruptcy and sale of the property of defense plants sounds absolutely unreal. This process, of course, did not begin yesterday and has been going on for several years.

But seven months after the start of the special military operation and the seemingly obvious problems with the lack of production capacity of the military-industrial complex, these processes are astonishing.

The following plants are being liquidated now:

50th Automobile Repair Plant, Rostov-on-Don
258th repair plant for refueling and transportation of fuel, Bataysk
751st repair Plant, Rostov, Yaroslavl region
5th Central Automobile Repair Plant, Yekaterinburg
88th Central Automobile Repair Plant, Chita
15th Central Automobile Repair Plant, Novosibirsk
172nd Central Automobile Repair Plant, Voronezh
9th Central Automobile Repair Plant, Saratov and Engels
487th Central Car Repair Plant, Republic of Bashkortostan
81st Central Engineering Base, Yaroslavl region
1st Design and Fortification Bureau, Moscow
85th Repair Plant, Bryansk
261st repair plant, Novgorod.

This is not a complete list of dying defense enterprises, but I would like to focus on these separately. All of them belonged to the JSC "Spetsremont" controlled by the Ministry of Defense, which, in theory, is engaged in the repair and modernization of armored vehicles. But the effectiveness, to put it mildly, is controversial.

In 2017 , Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in the State Duma, that JSC "Spetsremont" owed the Ministry of Defense: for 2012-2013, the it's plants had to supply about 22 thousand units of military equipment for 12 billion rubles. However, this never happened.

Apparently, after that it was decided to transfer these plants to Rostec JSC. But the state corporation could not clearly answer the question about what would happen with these plants.

As a result, only one of the entire list of enterprises was lucky — the 258th plant in Bataysk, where Rostvertol is going to make a flight test station.

The rest of the factories sell unique equipment for cheap, experienced personnel is fired. Corruption scandals accompany this process.

For example, the former director of the 88th central vehicle repair plant from Chita, Andrei Yakovlev, was arrested in 2015 for organizing a criminal community. He was replaced by Sergey Chadaev, who, as they say, sold off the entire property of the plant. 

The 9th Central Automobile Repair Plant is a developer of unique ceramic armor for military equipment. But the military customers refused the plant's services, and it was bankrupted by its own trade union.

Most factories are waiting for the sale of equipment, cutting of all metal [for scrap] and repurposing them into warehouses, shopping malls, office premises, etc. Perhaps — a complete demolition and construction of a residential complex in their place. And this is now, in conditions of extremely acute need for military equipment against the background of hostilities.

All these plants are vital today to increase the country's defense capability. But since Russian Defense Ministry decided not to preserve them, most likely, we, naive bloggers, do not [really] understand anything about it: after all, up there, they know better what is needed and what is not for the needs of the military-industrial complex, right?

 

And there is more

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Yesterday's post about the deplorable state of defense plants owned by JSC "Spetsremont" caused a stormy reaction of our readers. We were approached by many people who asked to talk about other plants with a similar fate:

The most typicla situation has developed at PJSC "Motovilikha Plants". This holding unites plants with a full cycle of MLRS production.

In 2018, PJSC was declared bankrupt, the process was controlled by the Rostec structure RT-Capital. The same company is the largest creditor and requires 7.6 billion rubles from the enterprise. According to information from open sources, almost 40% of the holding's plants belong to Rostec. In 2022 — after the start of SMO  — the property of the factories began to be sold.

For example, in March 2022, during the acute need of the army in technology, the substation of one of the plants was sold to a local to an entrepreneur for only 550 thousand rubles [~10,000 Euros]. The administrative building went under the hammer for 238 million rubles [4 millions Euros].

Later it was decided to sell all the relevant assets of PJSC "Motovilikha Plants" in a single lot, although before that it was planned to divide into civilian and military lots. At the request of the Rostec structure, the company is forced to put up for sale property worth 3.5 billion rubles [53 million Euros]. It includes production workshops, an engineering building, administrative and utility rooms, and various equipment. Promsvyazbank demands another 1 billion rubles.

Local authorities are aware of the importance of "Motovilikha Plants" and ask Rostec and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to quickly finish the bankruptcy process in order to start expanding and investing in the enterprise.

Similar events occurred at the 98th automobile repair plant. In 2019, its directors were suspected in fraud with budgetary funds, a criminal case was opened against him. In 2020, the company ceased operations by court order.

By that time, the state of production was quite deplorable: almost all the equipment was made in the 60s, there were no funds for modernization or reprofiling. There were simply no orders from the only potential customer represented by the Ministry of Defense.

The Zhiguli Radio Plant in the Samara region, which produces radar equipment for carrier-based military aviation, is also on the verge of closure. It tried to convert to the production of equipment for AVTOVAZ [Lada plant], but cooperation did not work out.

For all the above-mentioned enterprises, the reason for bankruptcy and problems is the same: the absence of a state defense order (GOZ) and the resulting lack of money. As a result, outdated factories are often not subject to renewal or repurposing.

Sometimes, for years, production facilities that have not been working are in such a state that there really is nothing left to save there. But any decisions on bankruptcy and demolition should be dictated not by bankruptcy administrators or creditors, but by people who are personally responsible for the country's defense capability.

A song for my RU friends

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Grigb

[Zeleban]

https://t.me/place_kyiv/18606

The Ukrainian police have published footage of the executions of civilian vehicles by the Russian military, taken from surveillance cameras in the Kyiv region. It's very hard to watch this. It is obvious that they had a direct order from their leadership for these actions and carried out this order without hesitation. They arranged a real safari on civilian vehicles. In these cars are civilian families with children who are trying to leave the Kyiv region.

Video without English subtitles, so you can skip interviews with eyewitnesses.

[Zeleban]

 

One of the first victims was a German who came for his bride. He miraculously survived

Edited September 28, 2022 by Zeleban

[TheVulture]

Russia announces that the SMO will continue until they control all of Donetsk oblast (I assume they mean Russia rather than Ukraine, but all bets are off with these clowns). Does that mean they are tacitly giving up on Luhansk?

 

[Grigb]

My contact in Moscow confirms that internally RU is in shock. Development of business projects stopped. Only current once are still functioning.

Nothing will come out of this shock. But I got a feeling that the next one might be the last one and Moscow will explode. Because vibes are Moscow it too terrorized for now. 

[Grigb]

Сollaborators in Mykolaiv spreading announcements that Wagnerite concert will happen 10-Oct at 5 AM

 

[Grigb]

RUMINT

Quote

[We] gave a couple of days to negotiate.
...
The State Duma will hold an unscheduled meeting on October 3. Federation Council [Upper chamber] - [on October] 4 planned.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Dmitry translated the latest Rybar update about Liman front. A few interesting bits:

- mobile UA units reached Zherebets on the north

- Svatovo - Kreminna road under (artillery I presume) fire

- RU defending bravely, definitely it looks like they do not intend to retreat.

Overall, the kessel seems to be practically closed 

 

Where is the information on the river crossing in the south coming from? Only RUS sources?

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Where is the information on the river crossing in the south coming from? Only RUS sources?

You mean Seversky Donets? Yes mostly from RU sources. But from multiple independent from each other sources including trusted ones. For example on 12-Sept agent Murz reported:

Quote

Current
The AFU, don't laugh, successfully crossed the Seversky Donets near Belohorivka, flanking the positions of the 2nd AK NM of the LPR, facing the Seversk-Bakhmut highway and the rear of the Allied forces of the Kuban Cossacks and Lugansk reservists, still heroically defending the forester's hut near Lyman.

Basically, UKR were present in this area for a sometime but for some reason did not push aggressively toward Lyman-Kreminna road. Or did not want to be seen around the road until Northen pincer breakthrough.

[Grigb]

Mogilization in action - Khodakovsky

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Units formed [just] before the mobilization announcement started to come in - and their behavior resembles the behavior of an animal born and raised in a zoo and [suddenly] released into the wild. One company entered the settlement in a position next to us, settled down, laid out the ammo in the correct geometric shape, put the vehicles nearby - for convenience. Well, [when] our officers arrived to link up, they saw this picture and pushed everyone into basements - just in time as everything was hit with arty.

Today, from the same guard [unit], a column decided to drive from point A to point B and drove right into the enemy's position - few people escaped from enemy fire. Well, what is it????? Gentlemen army chiefs, what are you doing? We have been fighting for more than eight years, and [we participate] in this operation from the first days, who prevents you from coming [here] and build interaction [with us] so that we show, teach, accompany, help?....

It's the same thing every time - we are open [for interaction], and they look at us [sneering] from the height of the general's shoulder straps. Until you find[/put] sane officers at the bottom, the work is not [going to] get better. Maybe it's good to stop imitating [Grand] strategists already? I'm sick of cleaning up after you....

 

[Grigb]

Pegov reports from Torske that UKR are preparing to attack Torkse from Kolodyaz (North) and from forest East of Yampil (South).

[Zeleban]

 

[Probus]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Someone knowledgeable did a good piece on the practical problems with Russian mass mobilization.  Dunno if it had been linked here or if I stumbled upon it (ISW for sure spoke to many of the problems).  Basically, Russia doesn't have a mass mobilization system in place.  Instead there is a peacetime system designed to handle about 125k intake over a period of, IIRC, 2 months.  Now he wants that same system to grab 300,000 in a matter of days.  Yeah, not going to happen.

Good video illustrating you're point:

[poesel]

My take on the sabotage of the NS pipelines is that it is a test from Russia to see how far it can go. The 'boil the frog' thing we have talked about already.

The NS pipelines are important, but they aren't now because the gas isn't flowing anyway. The pipelines were damaged on NATO soil, but not anywhere visible enough for an article 5. The pipelines were also deliberately damaged on Swedish grounds - a NATO candidate - to send a message to them.

I guess that Russia is testing how far it can go with damaging infrastructure and what the repercussions are.

Edit: just read it was just outside of Denmark & Sweden. So one level down but still a message.

Edited September 28, 2022 by poesel

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, poesel said:

My take on the sabotage of the NS pipelines is that it is a test from Russia to see how far it can go. The 'boil the frog' thing we have talked about already.

The NS pipelines are important, but they aren't now because the gas isn't flowing anyway. The pipelines were damaged on NATO soil, but not anywhere visible enough for an article 5. The pipelines were also deliberately damaged on Swedish grounds - a NATO candidate - to send a message to them.

I guess that Russia is testing how far it can go with damaging infrastructure and what the repercussions are.

Edit: just read it was just outside of Denmark & Sweden. So one level down but still a message.

Yes, this is most likely. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Grigb

[Zeleban]

 

[Bulletpoint]

From now on, the video blog "Inside Russia" will be filmed outside Russia.

"So I go and I look at the flights, and it's to Tajikistan, to a tiny town no-one really knows. I didn't even know the name of it. And there are tickets. For the 27th, midnight, a little bit after midnight. And they cost an arm and a leg. I booked the ticket immediately".

 

 

[Rokko]

15 minutes ago, poesel said:

My take on the sabotage of the NS pipelines is that it is a test from Russia to see how far it can go. The 'boil the frog' thing we have talked about already.

The NS pipelines are important, but they aren't now because the gas isn't flowing anyway. The pipelines were damaged on NATO soil, but not anywhere visible enough for an article 5. The pipelines were also deliberately damaged on Swedish grounds - a NATO candidate - to send a message to them.

I guess that Russia is testing how far it can go with damaging infrastructure and what the repercussions are.

Edit: just read it was just outside of Denmark & Sweden. So one level down but still a message.

It will be interesting to see what exactly the repercussions will be, I don't think some further economic sanctions are going to cut it here. Maybe put a Kaliningrad blockade back on the menu, or send modern air-dropped ASW weapons to Ukraine (covertly) or declare to sink any Russian sub spotted anywhere near critical pipeline infrastructure. I doubt the EU has enough teeth for any of these, but they would be resolute responses.

[Grigb]

RUMINT: That Serdukov and his infamous mistress were spotted in airport.

[MSBoxer]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

No, but when a German hears words like "war", "army", "gun", etc. he gets very different mental images than an American does.

34 years ago when we were stationed in West Berlin, this was much less true.  Of course the local population lived in a city surrounded by Soviet forces who presented a pretty convincing threat.

Edited September 28, 2022 by MSBoxer

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I like this guy's maps.  Totally old school   They do seem to be reasonably accurate (leaning towards conservative), though of course easily outdated by events.

Steve

I find MacKay's constant use of non-English native speaker propaganda words like 'rashist invaders' to be an annoying affectation.

Is would be more amusing if fake Scotsman guy spoke mock pidgin Russiaglish, like 'Boris Alotovkrap' who used to troll (the other trolls) on ZH.

Death to moose and squirrel....

Edited September 28, 2022 by LongLeftFlank