How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So a lot of problems with your theory here:

- Belarus has about 10 million people and as far as this war they have not done Ukraine any favours.  I am not sure population base is a key metric of how much damage a nation can do to Ukraine.

Belarus is a vassal of a big empire adding those 10 mil to the total pool. That's a flawed argument.

If it was just Belarus invading Ukraine - the outcome would've been predictable... and faster.

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- A few 10 million population countries with a serious hate on for Ukraine - and I am pretty sure there will be that factor, can be problematic.

Those few 10 million pop countries will also be hating each other's guts and that works wonders. See Israel's neighbors.

And make no mistake - we are going to be the new Israel here. And we won't be in NATO exactly for that reason, let's be realistic.

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You are very likely to get non-state, or state sponsored terrorism against Ukraine for a long time.

We will be getting that regardless, Russia will never stop, except having a whole empire is much worse because otherwise at least it will be state sponsored terrorism akin to that of DPRK instead of akin to that of huge empire. Much more manageable. Any Ukrainian that cares - understands that it's a permanent war from here on. And fighting broken up pieces of empire is a lot easier, historical facts.

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"Too busy dying from hunger", ok so we are talking about using a humanitarian disaster to keep whatever is left of Russians in line?  Would that include withholding food aid like a Somalia warlord? 

No, just literally what I said. If it so happens that remnants of Russia will be too busy dealing with their own breakup crisis (whatever it may be, e. g. food) - it will prevent them from killing their neighbors. And that's a huge win.

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No, it is not "Ok" for Moldovia or Georgia to suffer but it is how things are - have you ever been to Africa?  However, I am not sure breaking Russia will really fix that, it could make it worse as the entire region falls into anarchy.

No it won't. There's nothing to fall into anarchy over. There are a bunch of territories occupied by Russia. No Russia = no occupation. Simple as that. In this whole region of planet Earth Russia alone generates 100% of all problems.

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Russia is definitely a problem, do not get me wrong; however, I have yet to hear a coherent solution to the post-conflict solution either within Ukraine or in Russia.  You have been advocating for the complete dissolution of Russia pretty early on, and frankly I get the impulse, but I see a lot of "worse" here, and not much that actually fixes anything.

Keeping a warmongering empire alive - is the worst possible thing that can ever be.

It's equal to keeping Germany post-WWI alive. Empires do not take lightly to being beaten.

Edited September 27, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

DefMon, who is always very conservative with his assessments, smells something brewing around Lyman

Edited September 27, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

15 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

1991 wasn't as well-guided as 2023 could be. Instead of clowns like Gorbachev/Yeltsin/Putin, we could put in (pun unintended) trained operatives.

Use the propaganda machine and repression like Pinochet, to ensure that they swallow the medicine.

puppet government will not work in Russia. Even ignoring how bloody it will be putting it in there - it will get dethroned almost immediately by people wanting revenge aka "RU Nats".

Because Russia is an empire, it's not a single country. Empires can never be puppeteered because that's not how they got to be an empire in the first place.

Edited September 27, 2022 by kraze

[Zeleban]

A visual demonstration of the state of roads in the east. A fighter passing by his fellow soldiers stuck in the mud makes fun of them using the Snickers slogan from the 2000s "don't slow down eat Snickers"

[Huba]

If somebody wasn't convinced that common EU defense policy is a complete dumpster fire, this Politico article explains it very nicely. Very well worth reading:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-olaf-scholz-defense-europe-strategic-autonomy-ukraine-war/

Edited September 27, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting, if true.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem.

 

From 'Map Sketcher'. Note the soft ground anchoring the left and the woodlands on the right.

EDIT: Per the below, it looks like the UA has broken through in force further east, directly threatening Kreminna, so this is now just a face of a larger cauldron. 

...Posting as a useful reminder of the major N-S arteries in Luhansk.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

It could also be because the specialists aren't on those trucks ... because they are off somewhere doing those refresher/familiarisation courses you talked about.

As you know well, what you see - or are shown - isn't everything there is to be seen.

Then again: Russia. So probably not

Didn’t we note many pages back that Russia had gutted their military school houses?  And here is why that is a last gasp of a professional military - any specialists are sitting in a classroom teaching themselves from a textbook right now because the training staff are dead in a field near Kherson.

[Huba]

Rybar just wrote an update regarding the situation there. Looks ZSU finally managed to clear the forests north of Bilohorivka, flanking the whole RU position east of Zherebets. Seems to be a huge chance that we'll see first mass encirclement of RU troops.

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To the east of Liman, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine set up several pontoon crossings between Kriva Luka and Belogorovka , created a bridgehead on the northern bank of the Seversky Donets, transferred equipment to the bridgehead and began preparations for an active attack on the positions of the allied forces in this sector

Enemy mobile reconnaissance groups on light armored vehicles conducted reconnaissance in combat of the positions of the RF Armed Forces in Yampol and Torskoy . The Kremennaya-Liman road is exposed to fire and is unsafe.

The last safe supply route for the Limanskaya Group of Forces runs along the Svatovo-Makeevka-Terny-Liman road. The route is under the threat of blocking the Armed Forces of Ukraine both from the west from the side of Novy and from the south from the side of the Seversky Donets .

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Probably made a new bridge out of the tanks wrecks Russia left there in its own crossing attempt in the summer. hah

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

And make no mistake - we are going to be the new Israel here. And we won't be in NATO exactly for that reason, let's be realistic.

Ok then, well good luck with that then.  So you plan is for the west to support until Russia shatters and then Ukraine ride it out as a lone state?  Unfortunately Ukraine does not appear in the Bible so I am not sure western support will last.

“A shattered Russia with an unsecured nuclear arsenal vs a lone state in a sea of people who can only agree on the fact that they hate you.” Is not a geopolitical solution.  Neither is hoping that making their dysfunction worse or them being pushed deeper into crisis will somehow lead to them forgetting you.

Your proposed strategy will have set conditions for long term direct threats to your nation without any real mitigating mechanisms against increasing regional insecurity.  This is extremely bad for business, so western economic investment is going to be very difficult.  Reconstruction is also at risk, as you note terrorism will be a significant threat in your country.  If these conditions create enough significant humanitarian crisis you could waves of former-Russian refugees try and get into Ukraine - which you can of course turn away by force, completely losing any strategic narrative high ground you have.

About the only way you approach would work would be for all Russians to cease to be at all, a strategy of extermination, but of course I know you are not proposing that.

I have to say that your isolationist entirely uncompromising view of the future sounds a lot like the narratives coming out of Russia itself, just pointed in the other direction.

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by The_Capt

[BornGinger]

The Russian orthodox church is of course supporting the war and now the mobilisation with the statement that Russian soldiers who die in Ukraine are cleansed of their sins.

It's interesting how the Baltic States and maybe even Finland and the Scandinavian countries look at those russians that are trying to leave the country to avoid being sent to the front. A Lithuanian politician said something like "These men were happy to sit on their butt and watch about the war on tv without it bothering them much. But now when they risk being sent to die they all of a sudden run away from their country or start protesting against being sent away".

Maybe stopping them from leaving the country can force them and their relatives to cause trouble to the Russian government.

Edited September 27, 2022 by BornGinger

[Huba]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Ok then, well good luck with that then.  So you plan is for the west to support until Russia shatters and then Ukraine ride it out as a lone state?  Unfortunately you don’t appear in the Bible so I am not sure western support will last.

“A shattered Russia with an unsecured nuclear arsenal vs a lone state in a sea of people who can only agree on the fact that they hate you.” Is not a geopolitical solution.  Neither is hoping that making their dysfunction worse or them being pushed deeper into crisis will somehow lead to them forgetting you.

You have set conditions for long term direct threats to your nation without any real mitigating mechanisms against increasing regional insecurity.  This is extremely bad for business, so western economic investment is going to be very difficult.  Reconstruction is also at risk, as you note terrorism will be a significant threat in your country.  If these conditions create enough significant humanitarian crisis you could waves of former-Russian refugees try and get into Ukraine - which you can of course turn away by force, completely losing any strategic narrative high ground you have.

About the only way you approach would work would be for all Russians to cease to be at all, a strategy of extermination, but of course I know you are not proposing that.

I have to say that your isolationist entirely uncompromising view of the future sounds a lot like the narratives coming out of Russia itself, just pointed in the other direction.

 

 

I on my end will add that as supportive as PL is, I absolutely don't believe we'd be willing to participate in any permanent security arrangements outside of NATO framework. Hell, if our gov got such idea, I'd be on the street protesting. NATO = US = nobody messes with you, it is really that simple. 

[LongLeftFlank]

Another propaganda bullseye....

Bonus

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Taranis]

Moscow will not seek extradition of Russians fleeing mobilization abroad

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Moscow said on Tuesday that it would not seek foreign governments to extradite thousands of Russians who fled the country to escape being drafted to fight in Ukraine:

“The Russian Defense Ministry, within the framework of the partial mobilization, has not sent, has not prepared and will not send requests to the authorities of Kazakhstan, Georgia and other countries regarding the issue of an allegedly forced return to Russia of Russian citizens there. »

 

Source : Le Monde

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

If somebody wasn't convinced that common EU defense policy is a complete dumpster fire, this Politico article explains it very nicely. Very well worth reading:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-olaf-scholz-defense-europe-strategic-autonomy-ukraine-war/

which policy? 

Although I do agree / think that we (EU) most create (a joint) one and be able to at minimum hold up our own pants (= protect EU). 

[rocketman]

7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

European countries could create a "pool" so that everyone chips in with 10-30% of they tanks that would be replaced sometime after Ukraine situation cools down then. Some of this pool would be internally swapped and some send to Ukraine, making sure Ukraine gets the up to date modes and similar versions.

From here you can find the operators: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

around half are 2A5-A7 and half 2A4.

This means Ukraine could easily get around 200. That would be a "worth it" amount.

and again to remind everyone most of these tanks exist only to counter Russian threat. In Ukraine they will be decreasing that threat even further. Russian threat has now decreased significantly(for the next decade or so) and Europe will be able to rearms faster than Russia after the war cools down.

Sweden should be on that list and send more than a handful. And while at it send some Archer systems as well.

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, rocketman said:

Sweden should be on that list and send more than a handful. And while at it send some Archer systems as well.

Yeah, missed that. Why did they have to rename it to Strv 122, haha.

Also some others missing but main point being even with very low balled analysis 200 modern Leopard 2's for Ukraine are totally doable.

[Huba]

Poland has around 240 (four battalions). I can't see any downside to this idea - it would help Ukraine greatly, be a show of EU unity, be good for industry, pissed off Russians... Why we didn't to it yet is beyond my comprehension.

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Keeping a warmongering empire alive - is the worst possible thing that can ever be.

It's equal to keeping Germany post-WWI alive. Empires do not take lightly to being beaten.

Would you kindly elaborate what you mean by that? What would you have done differently?

[FancyCat]

Kraze, forgive me if you explained already, how are we supposed to take apart Russia or control their government when they have nukes?

[Kinophile]

 

[akd]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Moscow will not seek extradition of Russians fleeing mobilization abroad

Source : Le Monde

Russia is very happy that other countries are providing a convenient social pressure release valve for them.

[Kinophile]

From ISW yesterday 

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The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its narratives are unlikely to placate Russians who can perceive the real mistakes all around them. The Kremlin is deflecting blame for the Russian government’s failure to abide by its own stated criteria for mobilization and exemptions onto the failing bureaucratic institutions responsible for the mobilization. The Kremlin is downplaying the widespread violations of the mobilization law as individual errors of local authorities, claiming to correct these errors as citizens call attention to them. The violations are clearly too common to be merely the result of individual errors, however, and Russian citizens can see them all too clearly. Unlike Russian failures in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has been able to minimize or deflect because its citizens cannot see them directly, violations of the mobilization decree are evident to many Russians. Word of these violations does not even require access to media or social media, because they are occurring in so many locations and victims’ families can spread their anguish by word of mouth.

And slaughter of that first wave hasn't even begun yet.  Not just UKR but the weather will soon take its cut, again and again. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Kinophile

[Armorgunner]

Nordstream 1 and 2. Gaslines from Russia to Germany is blown up, it look like . At four places, at the same time. 70-80 meters below surfare, so probably by some SF frogmen. And not enviromental ones

Its BIG NEWS in Swedish media today. Love it

Edited September 27, 2022 by Armorgunner