How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Drunken Russian mobiks

 

[Artkin]

What is the US army's reaction to all of this? Mobilization would seem like a change of strategy for the armed forces. Secretly a higher state of readiness?

[FancyCat]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so help me out here.  What would the roadmap back to full citizenship and democratic rights of the people in this region look like then?  Even people who do not want to be Ukrainian? Will they be given a chance to have free-from-interference referendums to chose what nation they live in?

Correct me if mistaken, the constitution of Ukraine does not allow for secession. While I don't know how reintegration will occur, I'm not sure why Ukraine needs to suppress democracy or such off the top of my head since you can't secede.

[keas66]

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

Well sure and I bet it is also happening  in the  halls of Power in Ukraine - since they want to both become a Member of the EU and  NATO ! .  I personally feel we should be putting a lot more faith in the Ukrainians   to do the right thing .

"Faith, belief" - you guys toss these around like they are hard truths and it is starting to irritate.  Second is the black and white calculus that anyone does not align with as "defeatists etc".

We are not investing billions, in the middle of post-pandemic recession, and risking a slow roll towards nuclear Armageddon because we have "faith and hope" that anyone will "do the right thing" - a concept we cannot even agree on internally.

We are doing it because of what we know.  We know Russia cannot win this war and we know Ukraine cannot lose the peace.  A significant portion of the populations of the west don't have faith in their own governments, let alone one 7-time zones away.

I honestly have watched the Ukrainian government steer a brilliant narrative, a few missteps but rock solid.  But Reconstruction/Post Conflict is like wedding - everyone loses their freaking minds!

You want to propose a non-negotiable push to the pre-2014 borders, then you need to answer the question of how to deal with those regions who have been outside of Ukraine for 8 years, because that post-game show directly impacts what we know.   

 

[keas66]

Just now, The_Capt said:

"Faith, belief" - you guys toss these around like they are hard truths and it is starting to irritate.  Second is the black and white calculus that anyone does not align with as "defeatists etc".

We are not investing billions, in the middle of post-pandemic recession, and risking a slow roll towards nuclear Armageddon because we have "faith and hope" that anyone will "do the right thing" - a concept we cannot even agree on internally.

We are doing it because of what we know.  We know Russia cannot win this war and we know Ukraine cannot lose the peace.  A significant portion of the populations of the west don't have faith in their own governments, let alone one 7-time zones away.

I honestly have watched the Ukrainian government steer a brilliant narrative, a few missteps but rock solid.  But Reconstruction/Post Conflict is like wedding - everyone loses their freaking minds!

You want to propose a non-negotiable push to the pre-2014 borders, then you need to answer the question of how to deal with those regions who have been outside of Ukraine for 8 years, because that post-game show directly impacts what we know.   

 

Yeah  I agree - you are starting to become irritating .  And I think as a US Citizen - I'm paying for this not you ?

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

Question for @Haidukand @Grigb

I am trying to understand what motivated Russia to do the prisoner swap.  It seems so counter to their narrative and guaranteed to upset a powerful constituency.  One item of info we don't have is beyond the one MP dude, who are the other 54 Russians swapped in this deal?

UKR offered to swap Medvedchuk on Azov commaders almost at once after falling of Azovstal. But Russia rejected. Medvedchuk can be interesting for Russia only for interrogation about purposelessly wasted Kremlin money and misleading of Putin in results of own activity in Ukraine - this is one of the reasons of Putin's fail in Ukraine. So, he wasn't interest for Russia. 

I read some hints from our soldiers, that during Balakliya operation our SOF not only disrupted C&C, attacking of comm lines and HQs, but also they captured some important representative of Russian authorities as well as many HQ officers. And maybe this made Putin more accomodating

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Correct me if mistaken, the constitution of Ukraine does not allow for secession. While I don't know how reintegration will occur, I'm not sure why Ukraine needs to suppress democracy or such off the top of my head since you can't secede.

So once retaken you are locked in?  You either have to flee or live under a constitution that does not allow for freedom to chose to be another nation or state?  And as you note, democracy of any kind should not be allowed for some period of time because of Russian war crimes?

How are these un-citizens going to be represented?  Will they have equal representation by, unelected/appointed officials because of your first assertation?  Are they going to be taxed?  Where will they sit in the reconstruction priority, how will you ensure that they are not discriminated against because they stayed in these regions during occupation - hell a not so small portion were born under that condition.

So now you may have a constitutional crisis on your hands?  Or you simply ignore the will of a significant portion of the population?  Do you drive them out...that ought to sell well in the west.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

Ah no, your arguments logic is broken right at the end. That opposite of that is exactly how RUS has been prosecuting this invasion (thank goodness).

Quote

As with everything [Russian], do it well  wrong, or don't do it at all.

There, fixed

But I suspect you're correct, the 300k is BS - one, I dont believe than can actually do that, and two, I think the true intended number is much higher. Its not that they think theyll get 100K+ actually in the field (my number) but that they think theyll get enough over  along enough timeframe to wear down/stall out the UKR offensive.

Literally, their last remaining strategic option is throw bodies (not tech) at the problem - yet the war is very much a technology problem. 

Funnily enough, this is exactly the thinking that ultimately ended with the Nicholas II saying "Wait, what?" to the barrel of a Checka pistol.

So, tally ho, Putler. Have at it.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Of course it is useless, the UA just took back all the LOCs it used to be attached to, that was not the point - it was a hypothetical.  The point was that an counter-invasion of Russian territory is off the table, even where it would make sense because Russia does have an escalation line that Ukraine does not want to cross.

You seem to be suggesting that the line does not exist at all.  That Russia is completely all bluster and smoke.  That no land within Ukraine nor the occupied regions would constitute, in Russian calculus a reason for escalation.  You sound very confident that the value of re-securing the pre-2014 is much higher than any false-escalation narrative coming out of Russia. 

Cool, got it.  Best Case scenario: Ukraine retakes all previously occupied regions, no escalation and Russia goes back to whatever mess it has created and tries to deal, but does not fall into Mad Max levels of governance.  We rebuild Ukraine and pull into the western power sphere and risk manage whatever is left of Russia. Totally fair and this is definitely a possibility if the cards all line up - I do not share your optimism or certainty but I can definitely see your vision of reality.

Worst case scenario: 

Is it likely, not so much; however, we are a lot closer to it than we were in Jan - I think we can agree on that much, or maybe not.

I think the biggest difference between our two positions is that I recognize that there is a spectrum of outcomes that we - the west and Ukraine - can still call victory that are less than your vision.  I also think that you have dismissed the worse case scenario largely based on assumptions - some are very good assumptions; however, I am not sure I would be willing to bet on all of them.  Further, in my experience, when someone is pushing the best case this hard, I immediately get nervous because we never get the best case scenario.  

In reality, I do not think your best case or the worst case will happen.  We will land in a stable but crappy spot where no one is happy but they can live with it.  For example, I fundamentally challenge the idea that Ukrainian security and by extension western security is tied directly to real estate.  It is tied to relationships, which we can solve for once the shooting stops, regardless of where lines are drawn.  I hope those lines are at the original Ukrainian border, but I also think we will live with less.

I base this on a lot of experience, but even that has limited use here, because we have never really been here before.

 

This is kind of a strange nuclear war scenario. The Russians launch a "nuclear warning shot" but target Berlin. I don't think that counts as a warning shot. At least not if the purpose of a warning shot is to warn and de-escalate the situation. It's like firing a warning shot at someone and aiming for his wife.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is kind of a strange nuclear war scenario. The Russians launch a "nuclear warning shot" but target Berlin. I don't think that counts as a warning shot. At least not if the purpose of a warning shot is to warn and de-escalate the situation. It's like firing a warning shot at someone and aiming for his wife.

I think that was actually the weird Dr Strangelove logic back in the day.  We could somehow trade cities and still de-escalate.  I think they definitely could have picked a secondary city but whatever.

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(HeliosRunner)

 

Just waiting for the second, associative UKR attack to happen.

[cyrano01]

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Interesting thread. I continue to believe that UKR airpower could furnish the 'tipping point' that lets UA mech break the RU defences in the south. Mainly by taking Russia's artillery substantially down, in conjunction with drones and counterbattery work.

 

 

I guess that depends on the extent to which the RU air defence environment has been disrupted.  Clearly some of it may have been hit by UKR artillery/rockets and maybe some of their missiles went up in the various supply dumps that have been destroyed. The HARMs  used by the UKR AF give some chances to shut down the AD sites during an attack but it's nothing like the sort of full spectrum SEAD that we have become accustomed to sseing in air power as practised bu the US.  Anyone got any sort of a steer on the curretn state of the RU air defences?

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, The_Capt said:

I think that was actually the weird Dr Strangelove logic of the day.  We could somehow trade cities and still de-escalate.  I think they definitely could have picked a secondary city but whatever.

Yes, a crazy doctrine. But even so, another strange thing in the video is that NATO retaliates at Kaliningrad after the Russians have destroyed Berlin. Even with the "trade cities" madness, I think the cities chosen would be roughly equal in significance.. Anyway this is getting off topic.

[Huba]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So once retaken you are locked in?  You either have to flee or live under a constitution that does not allow for freedom to chose to be another nation or state?  And as you note, democracy of any kind should not be allowed for some period of time because of Russian war crimes?

How are these un-citizens going to be represented?  Will they have equal representation by, unelected/appointed officials because of your first assertation?  Are they going to be taxed?  Where will they sit in the reconstruction priority, how will you ensure that they are not discriminated against because they stayed in these regions during occupation - hell a not so small portion were born under that condition.

So now you may have a constitutional crisis on your hands?  Or you simply ignore the will of a significant portion of the population?  Do you drive them out...that ought to sell well in the west.

 

Isn't the mentality of vast majority of therein inhabitants ('citizens' is hardly applicable) to just shut up and wave the flag handed to them by the people in charge? This is what your average homo sovieticus does, and while Ukraine obviously experiences  the raise of western type civil society, I bet whatever that the same is not happening in LDPR or Russia (Crimea). I'm sure that a lot of most problematic people will flee - however unpalatable the idea is for us, this is what will happen. A lot is already dead. Some might accept the new deal and return. Some won't. The ones that moved after 2014 will be expelled, and good riddance it will be.I imagine that a lot of people that left after 2014 will return too, and won't bring pro-Russian ideas with them.
I don't see why Ukraine should do anything to accommodate any pro-RU separatism in the liberated territories, not immediately at least. And few years later, while UA is being rebuilt and Russian plumbers start to immigrate to Kyiv, the question will be rendered moot.

At the moment, the official stance of major UA supporters, including Turkey, US and even FR and DE is that pre-2014 belong are Ukrainian and they support re-taking it. While I agree that blind faith in everything sorting itself out smoothly is naive, I'm pretty sure that for only for the practical reasons, UA won't pursue actions that would alienate the West. They prove time and again to be extremely skilled in maintaining right PR, and I see no reason to believe they will drop this attitude in the future.

And to sum it up, I personally am really looking forward to nice vacations in Crimea in 2024  

Edited September 22, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think that was actually the weird Dr Strangelove logic back in the day.  We could somehow trade cities and still de-escalate.  I think they definitely could have picked a secondary city but whatever.

Hackett's idea was I think Birmingham and Minsk?

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Yeah  I agree - you are starting to become irritating .  And I think as a US Citizen - I'm paying for this not you ?

Ok, I think that just about wraps up this topic, so glad we could come to rational common ground.  I am pretty sure the Canadian government will find and fleece me in my tax bracket over this, as they have demonstrated so much acumen to do, but so be it.

You guys in the "non-negotiable" camp do you, I hope maybe you found a few things to think about and mull over, I know I did - the entire post-conflict thing is something to unpack, but we need to get there first.

 

[cyrano01]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So once retaken you are locked in?  You either have to flee or live under a constitution that does not allow for freedom to chose to be another nation or state?  And as you note, democracy of any kind should not be allowed for some period of time because of Russian war crimes?

How are these un-citizens going to be represented?  Will they have equal representation by, unelected/appointed officials because of your first assertation?  Are they going to be taxed?  Where will they sit in the reconstruction priority, how will you ensure that they are not discriminated against because they stayed in these regions during occupation - hell a not so small portion were born under that condition.

So now you may have a constitutional crisis on your hands?  Or you simply ignore the will of a significant portion of the population?  Do you drive them out...that ought to sell well in the west.

 

All very fraught questions.  I was thinking about the constitutional questions when I saw this post and it did occur to me that there is no universal rule that says that if a province/state/oblast or whatever has a majority of people in it in favour of secession then that gives it a right to secede. Clearly the situations vary hugely from place to place but there is a danger of coming at this from an anglocentric perspective. The UK has obviously taken the view that Scotland and  N. Ireland  do have such a choice having either held referenda or legislated for them. Similarly Canada has, by implication, the same view regarding Quebec. The approach of, say, Spain is significantly different when it comes to Catalan independence.  There are  plenty of constitutions  that declare a country to be indivisible, France for example.

Even in the UK I suspect that UDI for, say, Yorkshire might get short shrift from HMG.

I guess the question comes down to whether the Ukrainians feel that:

(a) They can occupy the territory

(b) That there will either be no significant partisan/insurgent hostiles or that if there are they can be suppressed.

If the answer to both of these is yes then 'welcome back to the Ukraine, your rights as citizens will be protected but secession will not be tolerated.'

Not sure it would end well but it might look a runner from Kyiv? Way out of my military history depth here I might add.

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by cyrano01

[BFCElvis]

Deep breaths guys. Deep breaths. 

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Yeah  I agree - you are starting to become irritating .  And I think as a US Citizen - I'm paying for this not you ?

You are risking a vacation.  If this is how you respond to a discussion about points of view you do not agree with, then take your agreement somewhere else.

As a whole this thread has gone though a ton of very touchy subjects without much need to kick people out for being uncivil and unproductive.  The last 10+ pages since the last time I had to put my foot down is not making me happy.

Discuss things rationally and reasonably, without snide snipes at each other, or you'll find yourself on vacation.

Got it?

Steve

[Haiduk]

50 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Even people who do not want to be Ukrainian?

You can see what such people will do, when UKR troops were liberating Kharkiv oblast. They just fled to their beloved Russia, whith which they identified themselves. Of course, some pro-Russian part of population will remain, some will return from Europe and western Ukraine (yes, they, hating all european and ukrainian fled to the west, not to Russia). But Secretary of National Security Council Daniliov, answewring on the question of journalist "How we get along with people, whith wich we didn't leave together already 8 years?" said: "This is not about WE get along with them, this is about how THEY get along with us. This is fundamental thing. If someone is not satisfied our laws and other things, we don't keep anyone - the world is large"   

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So once retaken you are locked in?  You either have to flee or live under a constitution that does not allow for freedom to chose to be another nation or state?  And as you note, democracy of any kind should not be allowed for some period of time because of Russian war crimes?

How are these un-citizens going to be represented?  Will they have equal representation by, unelected/appointed officials because of your first assertation?  Are they going to be taxed?  Where will they sit in the reconstruction priority, how will you ensure that they are not discriminated against because they stayed in these regions during occupation - hell a not so small portion were born under that condition.

So now you may have a constitutional crisis on your hands?  Or you simply ignore the will of a significant portion of the population?  Do you drive them out...that ought to sell well in the west.

 

I don't think there's anything wrong with suspension of normality during war and obviously there will be a period of reintegration. EU influence on Ukraine will keep Ukraine from getting too anti-democratic or repressive, and Ukraine's civil society looks to be holding up well. We have no idea the will of the population in the pre-invasion regions now. I'm not sure how uncertainty about reintegration equals a scenario where the West needs to fret about Ukraine retaking all her territory back.

My only thoughts about reintegration stem from American history. Military occupation and administration of the southern states, lasted 12 years and in my opinion should have lasted way longer and been harsher. But comparing reintegrations like that has no value and offers little in the way of lessons.

[FancyCat]

How much do you want to bet that the quota numbers came in from Moscow and the expectation was they get fulfilled or else?

 

 

[keas66]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, I think that just about wraps up this topic, so glad we could come to rational common ground.  I am pretty sure the Canadian government will find and fleece me in my tax bracket over this, as they have demonstrated so much acumen to do, but so be it.

You guys in the "non-negotiable" camp do you, I hope maybe you found a few things to think about and mull over, I know I did - the entire post-conflict thing is something to unpack, but we need to get there first.

 

Well as much as I enjoy  someone taking the moral high ground .... you were the first to reach for the word "Irritate"

[keas66]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are risking a vacation.  If this is how you respond to a discussion about points of view you do not agree with, then take your agreement somewhere else.

As a whole this thread has gone though a ton of very touchy subjects without much need to kick people out for being uncivil and unproductive.  The last 10+ pages since the last time I had to put my foot down is not making me happy.

Discuss things rationally and reasonably, without snide snipes at each other, or you'll find yourself on vacation.

Got it?

Steve

Who used the word "irritate " first Steve ?