How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 Every attempt was made to massacre as many "politically unreliable" people as possible under the cover of war time conditions. Katyen Forest, and allowing the Germans to crush the Warsaw Ghetto before continuing their offensive are merely the best known examples. Ukrainian, Polish, Belorussian, and Baltic civilians were treated just as awfully as German ones. 

One small correction - it was not the Warsaw ghetto, but Warsaw entire. Warsaw ghetto fought in 1943. The rest of Warsaw in August 1944, which is when Russians got close, but stopped on the other side of Vistula (some say: were stopped by effective German defence; I would say that they were stopped initially, but then took their sweet time to get back moving.)

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

One small correction - it was not the Warsaw ghetto, but Warsaw entire. Warsaw ghetto fought in 1943. The rest of Warsaw in August 1944, which is when Russians got close, but stopped on the other side of Vistula (some say: were stopped by effective German defence; I would say that they were stopped initially, but then took their sweet time to get back moving.)

Noted, thank you.

[DesertFox]

QUESTION:  Yes, this is for the senior defense official.  You mentioned that you're providing Ukraine with what they need, when they need it.  Now there were three Ukrainian parliament members in town last week meeting with members of Congress.  They're pushing for tanks.  And they say there's some support on the Hill.

Is that something under consideration by either DOD or the administration?  Could you address that?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL:  Sure.  So we agreed that armor is a really important capability area for the Ukrainians.  Now they've largely been relying on Soviet type tanks and we've spent a good deal of effort in encouraging countries largely in Europe who have some of these, you know, formally Russian made tanks to provide them to Ukraine to supplement Ukraine's existing tank inventory.

But as I said before, when we look at Ukraine's longer term needs, we recognize that there will be a day when they may want to transition and may need to transition to, you know, NATO compatible models.  We're always very cognizant though with any new equipment that we provide to Ukraine or that our allies, our partners provide that there is substantial training, maintenance and sustainment -- and sustainment consideration.

So we want to make sure that when we provide capabilities that all of these are taken into account.

Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold a Background Briefing > U.S. Department of Defense > Transcript

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Knock on wood if true

 

 

Heard so too, the Evil Red Gnome aka WarGonzo is crying about the hard situation there since yesterday evening. It will happens sooner or later. Even with mobilization my bet is that northern Luhansk is lost for RU. I expect that Ukrainians will slowly grind east to Kreminna, and then just cut the whole north from the Donbas.

In the meantime, Putin's speech is being delayed for some reason. My guess is that it's for dramatic effect. My second guess is the coup is ongoing

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Knock on wood if true

 

 

I have read about Liman as often as I read about Russian take over of Pisky.

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

There have been a lot of references in this thread to the use of cocaine by the Russian elites. Now I'm not a doctor, but I'm thinking their behavior is starting to look more like some sort of Hallucinogen:

• Seeing things that aren't there (evil UKR nazis and NATO divisions rompstomping their beloved RA)
• Not seeing things that are there (HIMARS is no big deal, just repositioning forces, gestures of goodwill)
• Transposing of senses - synesthesia (seeing their dumpster fire of an invasion and smelling roses)
• Improper Identification of self: See themselves as benevolent good guys while raping, torturing and pillaging.

I guess there could be heavy poly drug use with a tab or two of LSD backed up by some lines of coke. Would explain a lot I guess. I think @sburke may be a deadhead, so he might be able to dissect the phenomenon and give us some clarity.  

well, it would explain not dealing with the ammo dumps as fireworks look pretty cool on acid, however my bet would be more that they are on meth.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

In the meantime, Putin's speech is being delayed for some reason. My guess is that it's for dramatic effect. My second guess is the coup is ongoing

He will very dramatically commit suicide just before going on air. His last words being the traditional farewell speech of Soviet/Russian suicides: "Comrades, don't shoot, I too am a Communist !"

[Grigb]

Still nothing. Just more BS news. Last minute negotiations?

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

well, it would explain not dealing with the ammo dumps as fireworks look pretty cool on acid, however my bet would be more that they are on meth.

They don't strike me as molly kind of people, which is a shame really - world would be a much better place.

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

So what is the root of the problem? Arabs? Russians? And you have a final-solution in mind for that root cause?

Yes russians are the root of the problem. Not just putin, not just their army, all of russians. They all caused this, collectively. All must be held responsible - which is where things are going, slowly but surely at least with their neighbors. And not just Baltic countries, but even Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Countries sending them all back home is a great damn start - look how enraged they get and how they go from "let's all be friends" pretense to suddenly crying e.g. "Estonia is **** and must be gangraped by our glorious army".

It's delightful to watch and it's the least they deserve.

And don't give me this "final solution" BS. Russians came here claiming to "finally solve the Ukrainian problem". In 7 months of outrageous warcrimes nobody in Russia was ever against any of it, even if they pretended there was none of it for 8 years prior. So let them reap what they sow.

Edited September 20, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

He will very dramatically commit suicide just before going on air. His last words being the traditional farewell speech of Soviet/Russian suicides: "Comrades, don't shoot, I too am a Communist !"

or, "why is that window open?"

[Grigb]

Girkin says he got invitation for tomorrow's TV program

Quote

Tomorrow at 13 o'clock I am invited to a briefing on the "National News Service". Haven't been there in a while... since April, AFAIR... or even since March.

Seems his info ban has been lifted.

[BlackMoria]

10 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

He will very dramatically commit suicide just before going on air. His last words being the traditional farewell speech of Soviet/Russian suicides: "Comrades, don't shoot, I too am a Communist !"

Putin gets his speech handed to him.  "What, this isn't my speech!   I am not announcing my retirement!"   Sound of trigger being cocked coming from behind his head.   Voice from behind... "Like all your assertions since all this started, you are wrong, Comrade.  Dead wrong."

[DesertFox]

I´m all for this version...

 

[BlackMoria]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin says he got invitation for tomorrow's TV program

Seems his info ban has been lifted.

"Come, Comrade Girkin.... the view from this window is breathtaking this time of year..."

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

It is very important to note, that the West has been attempting to give Russia escalatory first response. If Russia truly annexes Ukrainian territory in a desperate bid to generate domestic and international support for causing a stalemate or freezing the war, I expect the West to ramp up its support of Ukraine, not decrease it. That way, instead of having to defend against Russian accusations of ramping up the crisis, the West can express that at every point, Russia was given a chance to walk away, and instead has doubled down. 

A reminder, Putin's words at the beginning of the invasion were not to annex Ukrainian territory. 

Yes. An under rated aspect of this entire conflict is that the US has to keep a broad coalition together with often quite different views of the war...especially in terms of escalation and where that intersects with material support. The easiest way to manage it is to use each Russian escalation as an opportunity to broaden and heighten engagement. This event will continue that trend.

But...now Putin is practically two hours late for his pre-recorded speech. Hmmm...

[Grigb]

Interesting statement but could be part of Putin BS

Quote

The head of the Duma Committee of the State Duma on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the law introducing the concept of "mobilization" into the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation does not mean general mobilization. He said this in an interview with the Parliamentary Newspaper.

There will be no general mobilization. The president has repeatedly spoken about this and is directly speaking through the mouth of his press secretary Dmitry Peskov and many other federal-level politicians. "Law" is not equal to "mobilization". It is not accepted specifically for a special military operation, it is accepted in order to fulfill it for a long time. At least until the time comes when the need for it disappears.

 

[Grigb]

I got weird idea - what if Putin wanted to declare the start of a new RU offensive? Mashkovets said today:

Quote

The 42nd msd of the 58th CAA, stretched on the "Zaporozhye Front" by several BTGrs, began some strange movements, depicting some kind of regrouping...

And to be honest, it worries me... Especially, "together" with the transfer of forces and means of the 41st CAA  to the same direction (at least 2 BTGrs of this army, from the 35th and 74th MSBR, are in the process of moving somewhere to the Rozovka area).

There are still some interesting "processes" going on, which we will try to figure out closer to the evening...

And in order to "have a thought" for the day, as a starter before the review... for those who are interested in this, I advise you to try to study in detail all the information on the Melitopol and Mariupol directions... Of course, from open sources...

But something went wrong...

[Haiduk]

17 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Haven't heard much from Ukraine's 'Hemingway' Yuriy Butusov lately.

He seems alive and well in spite of his feats of derring-do, but I assume he mainly publishes and tweets in his native tongue.

 

Butusov makes very good reportages from frontline, but he has also reputation of alarmist, hype-eater and in last time politically biased. He tied with Dnipro city elites like Korban and Filatov. Since his patrons had conflict with Zelenskyi and Yermak (there are a rumors Korban and Filatov like a revenge have lobbied Victoria Spartz statements) he became spread narratives, which blame Zelenskyi and Presindent's Office with different conspiracy. Russia already several times has trown in information field of Ukraine narratives about conflict between President's Office and General Staff and between Zelenskyi and Zaluzhnyi. As if Zelenskiy scared with unbelievable growth of Zaluzhnyi popularity and seeks ways to dismiss him. From time to time this narartives appeared again and again with new details and Butusov as well as followers of Poroshenko gladly discussed "new treason". Interesting, that in 2014-15 Butusov considerd as puppet of Kolomoyskiy among Poroshenko-followers and was almost "enemy #1" for them.   

Now we have new conspirasy from Butisov - when president came to Izium he met with general Syrskiy and as if demostratively didn't take Zaluzhnyi wit him. As if media named him as "author of the victory", though this wasn't true, of course, because such operation developed by General Staff ad Syrskyi only acomplished tasks as chief of this direction. But Butusov went further and has been developing conspirasy that Zelenskyi pulls Syrskyi in "heroes", because he is preparing him like "pocket genetral" on the place of Zaluzhnyi. 

This is ridiculos, but before starting of offensive in Kherson oblast, Poroshenko-bots and his followers shared in social media two opposite conspiracy. "All is ready to offensive, but Zelenskiy doesn't allow to Zaluzhnyi to go forward, because he has surrendered the South to Russia, according secret Oman agreements" and "Zaluzhyi says that we are not ready to big offensive, but Zelenskiy claimed offensive and hurries Zaluzhnyi with offensive in order to it would be failed and we would be lost many soldiers, so this would be allow Zelenskiy to make peace with Russsia on Russian terms, according to secret Oman agreements" %)

Edited September 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

In the meantime there's more and more claims that Lyman was taken today - here's one by Konrad Muzyka, who tends to be on the safe side with claims like that:

Edit:
Also this :

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Huba

[poesel]

Is swan lake already running?

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

Is swan lake already running?

I wish but so far the same BS they said last couple of hours - now about deputies voting for referendum in L-DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye. 

[Zeleban]

According to rumors, RT and Channel One removed the announcement of the broadcast of Putin's speech

Edited September 20, 2022 by Zeleban

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

In the meantime there's more and more claims that Lyman was taken today - here's one by Konrad Muzyka, who tends to be on the safe side with claims like that:

 

This is not true yet. Locals reported about explosions in the town and clashes (but not in the center), but Lyman is under enemy control, though it already oviously shifted to "contested zone" 

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

According to rumors, RT and Channel One removed the announcement of the broadcast of Putin's speech

Lol someone literally just mentioned Russia doing **** like this and getting away with it like a page ago.