How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Subs are not corresponded to his speech. Likely mistake.

did he say something interesting? 

I have tears in my eyes from laughing so hard.  That's brilliant 

and who dresses him?  that shirt is ridiculous.

Edited September 14, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is possible that UKR just started a new phase of offensive at Kupyansk-Lyman-Lysichansk area. Tatarsky reports

I saw that too. The liberated territories seem to be mostly cleared by now, troops hopefully had time to sleep it off a bit and refuel rearm. If some reserves were to be committed, I guess they might be ready to roll in. And as Steve pointed out, the weather window is closing and every day counts.
What is a good sign is that given a multitude of reports, it looks like UA has firmly established a bridgehead around Borova, giving them a great starting position for any kind of offensive operation. 
I keep my fingers crossed, hope Ukrainians give orcs hell.

[Cederic]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Subs are not corresponded to his speech. Likely mistake.

Note the name of the user posting the video (on Twitter). More of a piss-take than a mistake.

[Cederic]

 

Another reason to welcome the Finns to NATO.

 

[Grigb]

Prigozhin PR campaign is working - there is video of his motivational speech in front of prisoners and new post that RU army needs to be reformed to be more like Wagnerites. It looks like they want to push RU public toward the idea of giving Prigozhin control of the RU Armed Forces under pretext of reforming them. 

[Huba]

double post

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

RU defeated another UKR landing. This time at Kinburn Spit. 

[FancyCat]

 

2 hours ago, Cederic said:

In a fight I'd rather have the Poles on my side than the French, the Germans, the.. well, the rest of Europe.

Nonetheless.

Ukraine doesn't need to mirror anybody's approach. Their way of fighting a war may not be optimal in a NATO style aerial dominance theatre but NATO absolutely needs to learn from and supplement how Ukraine has successfully mocked a near-peer adversary.

While military aid is absolutely important, and its important to recognize that Polish assistance is awesome, its also important to recognize the wholeness of western aid to Ukraine, for example, France offered 25% of its active duty Caesar SPGs, something no other state has offered in terms of active duty, in-use military hardware, Germany offered essential hardware like long-range AD, and short-range AD essential to keeping VVS away from the offensive in Kharkiv, the UK is hosting thousands of Ukrainians for training, and news has arrived Denmark will be hosting troops as well, NATO aircraft are ferrying munitions from states like Pakistan, sneaking stuff from Iran thru 3rd parties, smaller NATO states like the Baltics, Norway, Finland, Macedonia, have contributed good stuff, like the Harpoons on trucks, air frames, etc.

It is also extremely important to understand that the EU, being the biggest trading partner to Ukraine, and bordering Ukraine, is a essential part of keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. I don't think it can't be understated that if Ukraine's home front was not upheld by EU money and EU access, Ukraine would been having a extremely tougher time keeping her home front secure, and by extension, keeping her frontlines going. 

States that see war, see huge economic effects, usually negative as hell, and I'm sure Putin and those RU nationalists were relying on turning home front Ukraine into rubble and poverty as part of any threat to Ukraine, and it can't underestimated, that things like the Polish warmth to Ukrainian refugees, is assisted by EU economic aid to Poland and other states to assist refugees for example. 

I mean, money is important just for defense needs, Pakistan ain't giving away 152mm ammunition that is newly manufactured (nor should they, poor bastards, that flooding is horrible) for free, and I think its not the foreign reserves of the UKR central bank paying them either, its gonna be some sort of money from the EU or otherwise from the West getting those shells made. 

End of the day, its important for understanding that Ukraine ability to fight back is not just due to Ukrainian resolve alone, but Ukraine has done a great job harnessing the ability and resources of the West to equalize the playing field more against Russia, and I bet some of the reasons why the analysts were wrong on Ukraine pre-war, did not take into account stuff like the West backing Ukraine. Ukraine isn't fighting with just the Poles standing a little bit back, and the rest of Europe really far away, that is undermining the work Ukraine has done to ensure that the playing field is what it is today, where Europe is a safe harbor for Ukraine to dock in, and I think Putin absolutely did not consider Europe to be Ukraine's friend, and was expecting his efforts in Europe to make it much, much colder for Ukraine, and not a safe harbor where thousands of Ukrainian civilians can live safely from Russian missiles, and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers can train in peace and quiet, and where hundreds can be treated in safe hospitals. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by FancyCat

[Kraft]

Just now, Grigb said:

RU defeated another UKR landing. This time at Kinburn Spit. 

Since bodies on a defeated naval incursion should be easily photographed, even just from the safety of a drone, it surprises me that so far none of these supposed naval invasions have resulted in visual casulties  

[dan/california]

 

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Prigozhin PR campaign is working - there is video of his motivational speech in front of prisoners and new post that RU army needs to be reformed to be more like Wagnerites. It looks like they want to push RU public toward the idea of giving Prigozhin control of the RU Armed Forces under pretext of reforming them. 

Well he will be Czar, or stepping out a window soon...stepping might not be the right word.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

I think this article, while written very early on in the war, is still relevant. 

Perhaps it's implied in the article, but Russia does not have a lot of experience with putting together SEAD/DEAD strike packages to achieve air supremacy over an IAD and supporting CAPs - even one  based on technology from the late cold war. Also, Russia was smug believing they would not need to take a week or so to conduct such a campaign since Ukraine would fall quickly to their blitz of the capitol. In contrast, the US and NATO live and breath air tasking orders and practice them routinely. And they a have a lot of stand off weapons and decoys to open the door with using saturation tactics during the early strikes waves. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by kevinkin

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

While military aid is absolutely important, and its important to recognize that Polish assistance is awesome, its also important to recognize the wholeness of western aid to Ukraine, for example, France offered 25% of its active duty Caesar SPGs, something no other state has offered in terms of active duty, in-use military hardware, Germany offered essential hardware like long-range AD, and short-range AD essential to keeping VVS away from the offensive in Kharkiv, the UK is hosting thousands of Ukrainians for training, and news has arrived Denmark will be hosting troops as well, NATO aircraft are ferrying munitions from states like Pakistan, sneaking stuff from Iran thru 3rd parties, smaller NATO states like the Baltics, Norway, Finland, Macedonia, have contributed good stuff, like the Harpoons on trucks, air frames, etc.

It is also extremely important to understand that the EU, being the biggest trading partner to Ukraine, and bordering Ukraine, is a essential part of keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. I don't think it can't be understated that if Ukraine's home front was not upheld by EU money and EU access, Ukraine would been having a extremely tougher time keeping her home front secure, and by extension, keeping her frontlines going. 

States that see war, see huge economic effects, usually negative as hell, and I'm sure Putin and those RU nationalists were relying on turning home front Ukraine into rubble and poverty as part of any threat to Ukraine, and it can't underestimated, that things like the Polish warmth to Ukrainian refugees, is assisted by EU economic aid to Poland and other states to assist refugees for example. 

I mean, money is important just for defense needs, Pakistan ain't giving away 152mm ammunition that is newly manufactured (nor should they, poor bastards, that flooding is horrible) for free, and I think its not the foreign reserves of the UKR central bank paying them either, its gonna be some sort of money from the EU or otherwise from the West getting those shells made. 

End of the day, its important for understanding that Ukraine ability to fight back is not just due to Ukrainian resolve alone, but Ukraine has done a great job harnessing the ability and resources of the West to equalize the playing field more against Russia, and I bet some of the reasons why the analysts were wrong on Ukraine pre-war, did not take into account stuff like the West backing Ukraine. Ukraine isn't fighting with just the Poles standing a little bit back, and the rest of Europe really far away, that is undermining the work Ukraine has done to ensure that the playing field is what it is today, where Europe is a safe harbor for Ukraine to dock in, and I think Putin absolutely did not consider Europe to be Ukraine's friend, and was expecting his efforts in Europe to make it much, much colder for Ukraine. 

Can't disagree with that. At the end, it is a team effort. There are better and worse performing players in this team of course, and some that flat out refused to play (oh, and we're led by Captain America  ).

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

While military aid is absolutely important, and its important to recognize that Polish assistance is awesome, its also important to recognize the wholeness of western aid to Ukraine, for example, France offered 25% of its active duty Caesar SPGs, something no other state has offered in terms of active duty, in-use military hardware, Germany offered essential hardware like long-range AD, and short-range AD essential to keeping VVS away from the offensive in Kharkiv, the UK is hosting thousands of Ukrainians for training, and news has arrived Denmark will be hosting troops as well, NATO aircraft are ferrying munitions from states like Pakistan, sneaking stuff from Iran thru 3rd parties, smaller NATO states like the Baltics, Norway, Finland, Macedonia, have contributed good stuff, like the Harpoons on trucks, air frames, etc.

It is also extremely important to understand that the EU, being the biggest trading partner to Ukraine, and bordering Ukraine, is a essential part of keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. I don't think it can't be understated that if Ukraine's home front was not upheld by EU money and EU access, Ukraine would been having a extremely tougher time keeping her home front secure, and by extension, keeping her frontlines going. 

States that see war, see huge economic effects, usually negative as hell, and I'm sure Putin and those RU nationalists were relying on turning home front Ukraine into rubble and poverty as part of any threat to Ukraine, and it can't underestimated, that things like the Polish warmth to Ukrainian refugees, is assisted by EU economic aid to Poland and other states to assist refugees for example. 

I mean, money is important just for defense needs, Pakistan ain't giving away 152mm ammunition that is newly manufactured (nor should they, poor bastards, that flooding is horrible) for free, and I think its not the foreign reserves of the UKR central bank paying them either, its gonna be some sort of money from the EU or otherwise from the West getting those shells made. 

End of the day, its important for understanding that Ukraine ability to fight back is not just due to Ukrainian resolve alone, but Ukraine has done a great job harnessing the ability and resources of the West to equalize the playing field more against Russia, and I bet some of the reasons why the analysts were wrong on Ukraine pre-war, did not take into account stuff like the West backing Ukraine. Ukraine isn't fighting with just the Poles standing a little bit back, and the rest of Europe really far away, that is undermining the work Ukraine has done to ensure that the playing field is what it is today. 

It is not that Europe has done nothing, Europe has done a great deal. It is that if the rest of Europe had leaned in the way the Poles and the Baltics have this thing would have been over in July.

But as a very old saying goes "Victory has a thousand father, and defeat is an orphan". The Minority leader of the US Senate and the German Foreign minster are now both calling for absolutely MAXIMUM support, and doing it cameras rolling in the cold clear light of day. The Russians will get the point now, or when a couple of brigades with full NATO gear smash them into the Sea of Azov, and bleep on the smoking, bleeding, wreckage.

[kraze]

So Armenia is learning the hard way that CSTO is for attacking its members, not defending them.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Since bodies on a defeated naval incursion should be easily photographed, even just from the safety of a drone, it surprises me that so far none of these supposed naval invasions have resulted in visual casualties  

Video with old pier and scared seaguls was priceless though. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Despite Strela-10M3 are usual AD asset in any UKR brigade, they almost never were spotted in action. But this one is exclusion

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

30 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

did he say something interesting? 

I have tears in my eyes from laughing so hard.  That's brilliant 

and who dresses him?  that shirt is ridiculous.

Nothing, just usual bravado and threats.

[Cederic]

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Cederic said:

 

As bad as the Russian army is going to be my new goto phrase.

[Harmon Rabb]

5 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Probably thought Fury was a tactical model for armoured combat ... hence ending up zapped and captured when confronted with the real thing.

At this point it really would not surprise me to find out that some of these Russian soldiers received most of their "training" by watching Hollywood movies and playing Call of Duty on the computer.

[FancyCat]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Prigozhin PR campaign is working - there is video of his motivational speech in front of prisoners and new post that RU army needs to be reformed to be more like Wagnerites. It looks like they want to push RU public toward the idea of giving Prigozhin control of the RU Armed Forces under pretext of reforming them. 

I'm sure you were only referring to Russian domestic opinion, but I want to note, nothing in Prigozhin's speech gives any indication to the creation of a modern, professional military needed to compete with Ukraine. Nothing about shooting deserters implies a ability to allow lower-command officers to operate on the frontlines with flexibility, nothing about this indicates a willingness for Russian soldiers to feel confident in their hierarchy. 

I think a important part of morale in the war against Ukraine, is the ability for relying on your command, your society to support you, nothing about this implies any willingness for the creation or reformation of the Russian military into a force that can compete with a Ukrainian military that understands their society is behind them, their command is behind them, that their comrades will be alongside them. 

Nothing in that speech will keep the Wagner units from breaking in a rout, nothing in that speech will let the units alongside and in front of the Wagner units remain confident in advancing, retreating, nada. Nothing about this speech will let other factions and units in the war in Ukraine give up their fiefdoms and power structures for a greater cause. 

It is important to recognize even in the time of the Soviet Union, that it was not just fear that drove the fight against the Axis, for example, Stalin and co conducted rapprochement with the church, Order 227 during WWII, was never fully implemented and dropped after the realization that it was not helping.

Prigozhhin will do nothing to fix the problems in the Russian military. 

 

 

[sburke]

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

Can't disagree with that. At the end, it is a team effort. There are better and worse performing players in this team of course, and some that flat out refused to play (oh, and we're led by Captain America  ).

Freind of mine has a young daughter playing soccer.  Another parent yells out "go team T-E-M team".  I told him- hope that wasn't a teacher.... 

Ukraine may not be a member of NATO, but Putin got a good taste of what a war with NATO might be like.  It'd be short.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

"in strict military terms" the Russian retreat in the east is more of a withdrawal than a collapse.

Oh, I do NOT agree with that at all.  And yes I'm going to quibble about this because by this guy's definition, Germany's forces in June of 1944 withdrew to Poland, Hungary, and Romania.  Anybody think that sounds correct?

In rough terms an enemy leaves the battle because it withdraws, is routed, or collapsed. 

A withdrawal is the best as it implies an orderly movement away from the enemy.  You do not leave massive quantities of mobile assets behind.

The difference between a route and a collapse is more subtle, in my view, though they both amount to a disorderly retreat.  I think of routing as the main force is defeated and the rest is obligated to move without proper planning or perhaps even orders.  But the forces haven't disintegrated, though they likely leave behind a lot of stuff.  Collapse, on the other hand, is more akin to "every man for himself" sort of panicked withdrawal.  This is the type of action that leaves stuff behind on a massive scale.

Another way to think of it is with a withdrawal you should be able to stop, turn around, and offer meaningful resistance.  Routed units might take some hand holding and rebuilding, but they can fight again rather soon wit.  Collapse?  They are sitting in civilian cars at the border trying to go home.

Steve

[Grigb]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I'm sure you were only referring to Russian domestic opinion, but I want to note, nothing in Prigozhin's speech gives any indication to the creation of a modern, professional military needed to compete with Ukraine. Nothing about shooting deserters implies a ability to allow lower-command officers to operate on the frontlines with flexibility, nothing about this indicates a willingness for Russian soldiers to feel confident in their hierarchy. 

I think a important part of morale in the war against Ukraine, is the ability for relying on your command, your society to support you, nothing about this implies any willingness for the creation or reformation of the Russian military into a force that can compete with a Ukrainian military that understands their society is behind them, their command is behind them, that their comrades will be alongside them. 

Nothing in that speech will keep the Wagner units from breaking in a rout, nothing in that speech will let the units alongside and in front of the Wagner units remain confident in advancing, retreating, nada. Nothing about this speech will let other factions and units in the war in Ukraine give up their fiefdoms and power structures for a greater cause. 

It is important to recognize even in the time of the Soviet Union, that it was not just fear that drove the fight against the Axis, for example, Stalin and co conducted rapprochement with the church, Order 227 during WWII, was never fully implemented and dropped after the realization that it was not helping.

Prigozhhin will do nothing to fix the problems in the Russian military. 

 

 

Yes, as you said that speech was an internal morale booster. Regarding other problems the PR campaign uses other ways to convey superiority of Wagnerites organization (and Prigozhin as manager supreme) - RU reporter

Quote

No matter who I spoke to from different units and directions in the Donbas (and not only [in Donbass]), most agree that Wagner is fighting better than any one else today. It's not that they are braver and more persistent (you can't belittle the bravery of the army, there are heroes everywhere). But in addition to these qualities, there are many indicators by which Wagner is superior to average army units. In particular, the absence of a murderous bureaucracy in the war and a high level of fairness in terms of personnel policy, hierarchy, and the incentive system. Wagner is becoming an important phenomenon of this war, and Yevgeny Prigozhin is one of its key participants. This is especially important to understand in view of the deafening failures and the acute personnel crisis in the Russian army. With the way the units of the Armed Forces are sometimes organized, it is absolutely impossible to fight. With the way PMCs are organized, it is possible and necessary. But we won't win the war with Wagner alone.

Strictly speaking Wagnerite's approach will not make RU army as capable as western counterparts but it will undoubtedly make it better. Though I suspect the core issue though is Prigozhin desire to control Armed Forces.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

I predict that Russia will fall apart before the year ends. There I said it. Wishful thinking, but someone has to take the early spot.

Noted

Steve