How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, and unfortunately that's why the 'grand strategy' / reelpolitik types in Washington and London will talk themselves -- yet again! -- into propping up a 'good Tsar' in Moscow. To the permanent detriment of its neighbours, not to mention the Russian people themselves.

....To prevent loose nukes and keep the Chinese 'out' of the Far East.

Best advice I ever got:  strategy is not about good or bad, it is about bad and worse.

A “good enough” Tsar would be sufficient at this point.  

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Best advice I ever got:  strategy is not about good or bad, it is about bad and worse.

A “good enough” Tsar would be sufficient at this point.  

In practice (and in business context), I have found that strategy is about screening out the many great ideas we are NOT going to expend our time and treasure pursuing. That may actually be a variant of your definition. 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In practice (and in business context), I have found that strategy is about screening out the many great ideas we are NOT going to expend our time and treasure pursuing. That may actually be a variant of your definition. 

or put another way The road to hell is paved with good intentions

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, kraze said:

I mean AFU did build a pontoon bridge there months prior.

I got this joke. 

[Battlefront.com]

I was poking around the Oryx site and Twitter account.  They had 99 documented Russian vehicles just today!  I hope someone buys them rounds of beer after work.

Russia - 5902, of which: destroyed: 3713, damaged: 136, abandoned: 303, captured: 1750

When you look at that captured + abandoned number, that really says a lot about this war.  The amount of pointless waste Russia has committed itself to is astonishing.

Someone pointed out that today the T-72B3 counts have now surpassed T-72B with T-72B3 Obr 2016 close behind them.  Collective T-80 variants is also around the same amount.  T-90 counts, though, are still quite small.  The OSINT says that 3rd Army Corps got a lot of T-90s.  Maybe because they've run out of everything else and are now dipping into the stuff they had been holding back in case NATO intervened?  BMP-3 counts seem to have gone up a bit more lately, perhaps for the same reason.

And then there is this... every red blooded American prepper's wet dream!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, alison said:

Not directly related to the recent military offensive, but something that might be interesting to people looking at the Kremlin palace intrigue is that there is a meeting of SCO (China's wannabe NATO) coming up on September 15/16. Despite increasing COVID lockdowns at home, it's now been confirmed that Xi will attend in his first foreign trip since the pandemic began. Putin and Modi are on track to be there too.

There's not much concrete news about the summit yet, but a lot of rumors. Putin has said he will meet Xi one-on-one, and surely Ukraine will be part of that discussion. My guess is that Putin might seek support from Xi in cementing his grip on power. I still don't think China will step into this war, but the party is good at propping up foreign dictators, and could spin it as some kind of benevolent regional security agreement (see Solomon Islands). I don't know enough about domestic Russian politics to understand how that might be received there, but I'd be interested to hear from people with a stronger background in the topic. I also wonder what Xi would get out of any potential deal. Certainly not good press in the west. Flip side - Xi might prefer to play hardball with Putin to try earn enough goodwill to see some of Biden's sanctions and tariffs dropped.

Others have chimed in, but focused on what China does and what it might get out of meeting with Putin.  I'm looking at this from Putin's perspective.  I am sure he's going there with hopes of securing a wide range of aid from Xi, mostly in the form of things that sanctions have cut off and are made in China anyway.  Chips being one of them.  Arms and ammo?  Well, if that's announced I think we here will find that VERY interesting and adjust our "how long can Russia last" equations accordingly. 

I'm not sure that Putin would announce any of this to the public even if he secured something as it does indicate Russia's in a weak position.  Instead, I think Putin will continue with the tradition of announcing the strengthening relationship with Xi against the evil West, generic announcement of more trade (maybe monetary value, but not what explicitly), and some sort of energy deal.  None of which will happen, but all of which play well to Putin's domestic audience.

It's like a rather famous part of the first Foundation book by Asimov.  The pinhead administrators on Terminus got assurances of protection and independence from the Emperor.  They were satisfied.  The Mayor, on the other hand, had it analyzed and it was determined that it really promised absolutely nothing.  It was all fluff and no substance.  That is the sort of thing that usually comes out of these Russia-China summits.

Steve

[sross112]

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Others have chimed in, but focused on what China does and what it might get out of meeting with Putin.  I'm looking at this from Putin's perspective.  I am sure he's going there with hopes of securing a wide range of aid from Xi, mostly in the form of things that sanctions have cut off and are made in China anyway.  Chips being one of them.  Arms and ammo?  Well, if that's announced I think we here will find that VERY interesting and adjust our "how long can Russia last" equations accordingly. 

I'm not sure that Putin would announce any of this to the public even if he secured something as it does indicate Russia's in a weak position.  Instead, I think Putin will continue with the tradition of announcing the strengthening relationship with Xi against the evil West, generic announcement of more trade (maybe monetary value, but not what explicitly), and some sort of energy deal.  None of which will happen, but all of which play well to Putin's domestic audience.

It's like a rather famous part of the first Foundation book by Asimov.  The pinhead administrators on Terminus got assurances of protection and independence from the Emperor.  They were satisfied.  The Mayor, on the other hand, had it analyzed and it was determined that it really promised absolutely nothing.  It was all fluff and no substance.  That is the sort of thing that usually comes out of these Russia-China summits.

Steve

Seriously: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/31/Joint_Statement_of_the_Russian_Federation_and_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China_on_the_International_Relations_Entering_a_New_Era_and_the_Global_Sustainable_Development__President_of_Russia.pdf

[chris talpas]

Fanciful speculation:

Putin seeing that things are looking less likely to end well for himself, quietly transfers a portion of his personal wealth to China.  During his visit with Xi, he decides he enjoys China so much that he will stay there and step down pre-emptively thus vastly improving his life expectancy.  
I would imagine other Russian operatives would be reluctant to mess with him in China.  China benefits internationally  from assisting in regime change that offers a pathway to de-escalation.

 

[dan/california]

 

 

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Seriously: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/31/Joint_Statement_of_the_Russian_Federation_and_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China_on_the_International_Relations_Entering_a_New_Era_and_the_Global_Sustainable_Development__President_of_Russia.pdf

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community."

The quote is from the document billindc linked above. Ii would be hilarious if there wasn't a genocidal war under way in Ukraine, and a a mere genocide or three underway in China, conducted by the signatories. Pretty much tells you how much faith to put in the rest of it. 

We will know as much about that meeting as the Five Eyes intelligence services want to tell us. There is literally no point in even skimming what China and Russia put out.

EDIT: I mean some poor bleeps in various foreign ministries have to read it, but I suspect the need strong coffee and stronger stomachs...

Edited September 13, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Seriously: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/31/Joint_Statement_of_the_Russian_Federation_and_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China_on_the_International_Relations_Entering_a_New_Era_and_the_Global_Sustainable_Development__President_of_Russia.pdf

They might just change the date on that document and save someone from having to type it up fresh

This sort of thing happened back in 2014 and 2015 when the war really started with Ukraine.  I remember two deals in particular; mobile phone network and oil pipeline.  Both announced to great fanfare from the pro-Russian numbnuts (back then calling themselves pan-Eurasians or something else the world has forgotten).  We had some pretty spirited and heated debates with the pro-Russians on this Forum about how neither deal was going to negatively impact the West's ability to crush Russia like a grape in any form of economic, political, or military conflict.  They saw it the other way around, even when the deals were dissected by experts to show that Russia got shafted on both deals. 

The oil deal was particularly hilarious in that Russia had to build the pipeline at its own expense in order to sell China deeply discounted oil.  Oh, and it had to go through some of the most challenging terrain on the planet too!  Icing on the cake was Putin didn't want to pay cash for the deal so Russia took out a loan to cover the few billions it was going to cost to complete the pipeline.  Guess who got gave them the interest bearing loan?  You guessed it... China.

I'm not even sure the telecom deal ever got off the ground.  I was shaking in my boots so much over it that I was afraid to check up on it.

Steve

[danfrodo]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

 

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community."

The quote is from the document billindc linked above. Ii would be hilarious if there wasn't a genocidal war under way in Ukraine, and a a mere genocide or three underway in China, conducted by the signatories. Pretty much tells you how much faith to put in the rest of it. 

We will know as much about that meeting as the Five Eyes intelligence services want to tell us. There is literally no point in even skimming what China and Russia put out.

EDIT: I mean some poor bleeps in various foreign ministries have to read it, but I suspect the need strong coffee and stronger stomachs...

Chutzpah.  The only word for it. 

Definition by example:  Son murders parents then asks judge for mercy because he's an orphan -- chutzpah.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Fanciful speculation:

Putin seeing that things are looking less likely to end well for himself, quietly transfers a portion of his personal wealth to China.  During his visit with Xi, he decides he enjoys China so much that he will stay there and step down pre-emptively thus vastly improving his life expectancy.  
I would imagine other Russian operatives would be reluctant to mess with him in China.  China benefits internationally  from assisting in regime change that offers a pathway to de-escalation.

 

heh.  Well, I am sure Putin's reported $200 Billion (pre war, of course!) is stashed all over the place.  Think about it... he could park $1b in every country in the world AND still have plenty to stash in his mattress in the Kremlin.  I think he's got his bases covered.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report for September 12th has some interesting tidbits.  As we all know, they are somewhat conservative in what they print and how they phrase things.  However, they have "confirmed" several significant things we noted throughout the day, which should give us a little more confidence in their truth:

• Russia's volunteer battalions have second thoughts about going to Ukraine.  So much so that Russia has put on hold any deployment of these forces into Ukraine.  We had initially taken this as a sign that maybe Putin wanted to keep the border secure from possible Ukrainian attacks or (hoped for!) to use as a security force in the event of a challenge to his power.  Seems to be more they are afraid of mutinies if they relocate them rather than anything else.
• Russian forces have likely withdrawn from what used to be the Kharkiv/Luhansk area, not reinforced it.This means Russia isn't even trying to create a new front.  Instead, it seems that's up to LPR.
• LPR doesn't have the forces to man the entire front of their supposed territory.  Remember, the LPR territory was only about 40% of Luhansk Oblast pre-February, so this increases their frontage by, I dunno, a factor of 3?  This might mean that Ukraine doesn't have to stop at the Oskil River if it feels up to more advances.
• The Lyman area is still hopping and the Russian mix of forces there aren't seeming to do much about it.
• Kherson hasn't seen mass surrenders yet, but DPR forces withdrew from a key point NE of Kharkiv in an apparent "screw you guys, we're going home" move.  With the DPR's northern flank now under threat, perhaps they decided to pull them back home?

Seems like a pretty good position for Ukraine to be in!

Steve

[chuckdyke]

The point of Special Military Operations. This means the soldiers are not automatically entitled to combat pay. Salaries are not paid sometimes at all. The point of special operations is war where the normal norms don't apply. Targeting infrastructure reallocating civilians ignoring the Geneva convention and more. This dictator sees Ukrainians as Russians with an accent he can reallocate the local population where he wants when he wants. For Russian people this is dangerous what he does with Ukrainian people he can do with them. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by chuckdyke

[FancyCat]

Small Jomini update,

I wonder how every collaborator in the post invasion territory feels at this point? Can't be good watching Russia melt away.

 

[Letter from Prague]

Wait so local governors / oligarchs are supposed to get the volunteer battalions.

I didn't realize it until now, but is this vassals levying soldiers for their lord? Did Russian governance regress to goddamn feudalism?

I did expect a lot of things, but not Crusader Kings II cosplay in year 2022.

[Bennie]

First report I've seen of significant advances into Northern Luhansk.

[paxromana]

2 minutes ago, Bennie said:

First report I've seen of significant advances into Northern Luhansk.

Hopefully the first of many - and a precursor to the collapse of the LPR forces (Goblins?) on the same scale as the Orcs.

[FancyCat]

Ehhh...Chuck might not be the best source. Best to wait for photos or better sources to say something.

[Huba]

27 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Wait so local governors / oligarchs are supposed to get the volunteer battalions.

I didn't realize it until now, but is this vassals levying soldiers for their lord? Did Russian governance regress to goddamn feudalism?

I did expect a lot of things, but not Crusader Kings II cosplay in year 2022.

It's more like various caporegime  making their subordinates available for don's war. Which is  also feudal

Edited September 13, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers in an armored vehicle in the region northeast of Kharkiv, during the advance of the kyiv army, September 12, 2022. KOSTIANTYN LIBEROV / AP"

[chuckdyke]

On a lighter note a morale booster.

 

[Taranis]

"Photo taken on September 11, 2022 shows a Ukrainian soldier perched on an abandoned Russian tank near a village in the suburbs of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast. JUAN BARRETO / AFP"

*T-72

[The_MonkeyKing]

49 minutes ago, Bennie said:

First report I've seen of significant advances into Northern Luhansk.

seems the difference is that in the chucks map areas vacated by the Russians are presumed to be under Ukrainian control. While many other mark it as unknown or neutral.