How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

No need to choose between retaking territory and destroying the enemy. Capturing territory faster than the enemy can retreat from it will destroy them just fine. That's where all those POWs are coming from.

It's important for armed forces to understand when two distinct paths can be taken. For example, in '41, Hitler choose to bag ten of thousands in the Kiev encirclement delaying the attack on Moscow taking huge losses in the process. A year later, Hitler choose to drive straight to Stalingrad when finishing a huge encirclement west of the city might have been the correct decision leaving the city as a fait accompli. While the two approaches can support one another, it's important to note when one is subservient to the other. Murat's ruthless cavalry pursuit following Jena cared more about destroying the Prussian army than gains on the ground. In 2022, there are territorial constraints being placed on Ukraine. But few care how much of the Russian Army is destroyed within those constraints. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by kevinkin

[kraze]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

There are two or three hard first questions. Are we trying to keep Russia together or break it apart? Are we trying to make Russia pay for all of the damage to Ukraine? Or is the risk of Versailles type bitterness too high if we just seize half of their oil and gas revenue for the next twenty years? Extracting real money from them pretty much requires that Moscow remain in control of the whole country? What is the best way to unwind 500 years of bad government and worse decisions while trying to keep a handle on several thousand nukes? Are treaties with the current Russian government even possible given the extent to which they lie about everything, all the time?

Secondary considerations, how much do we care if China benefits at Russian expense? would a relatively free hand in Russia convince China it has better things to do than destroy the world economy by attacking Taiwan? Can we break the the lock the current Moscow elite has on the oil and gas revenue? Is ANYTHING resembling decent, never mind democratic, governance remotely possible in any significant portion of this mess.

Oh, and can we manage a government change in Belarus that puts it on trajectory that vaguely resembles Ukraines at acceptable cost? Do we have a choice? There is probably a Phd in foreign relations in the answer to each of those questions, but I don't think we can wait that long.

 

 

Those 500 years happened because that's just how they are - it can't be changed by giving them McDonald's and a pat on the back. You already tried.

Russian empire ceasing to exist is a much much better long term investment for (and into) Ukraine then making them pay reparations (they won't, giving 1000 BS excuses, like sanctions made us poor, no money sorry *drives off in his packed Bentley*). Because Russia will be back to kill again. It's just how it is, everybody should just stop trying to change people who are not willing to change themselves. Maybe when the remnants of their empire will be stuck in a permanent survival war (like we are) - it will cause changes (like it did to us).

Same goes for Belarus. They genuinely, absolutely love Lukashenko. It's not some oppressive dictator, who makes poor people feel sad. To them he is the best ever leader they had and will ever have. Real world is not Just Cause or Far Cry, overthrowing dictators is a responsibility of parties involved, not somebody else coming and doing it.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

A few trenchant points from Galeev's early briefing threads. (His feed is a bit of a bag of cats these days)

....

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

https://wartranslated.com/the-good-russians-congress-godot-over-de-gaulle/

Quote

 

many opposition figures blame all the Russian problems on Putin. In the worldview of the Russian Liberal opposition, with rare exceptions like Roizman and Novodvorskaya, Putin’s removal from power will immediately transform the whole system into a free liberal paradise.

In reality, Putin’s physical removal from power via a coup or natural causes will neither address the deep-routed imperialistic aspirations and fascist inclination of many Russians nor guarantee the installation of a truly democratic regime.

As noted before, the Russian Nuclear Border is the Great Filter of external pressure on Russian society.  There's only so much can be effected "Outside ——> In" before activating 1)intense & unifying patriotism, and/or 2) Nuclear strikes to eradicate the external threat. 

I think it was "Strontium Dog"  series (2000AD mag) which had a bad guy, forget his name, who was unkillable due to his impenetrable skin-  until someone shoves a nuke down his throat. It explodes but because his skin is impenetrable, its nuclear fireball is contained inside him, damages nothing else but roasts his insides, leaving him a dead empty, impenetrable  husk. 

So, the only possibility of initial attempts at Russian Regime change will come from inside. The fantasy's of the West effecting anything beyond moral support are a waste of time. 

Because those first passes at change will be purely internal fights,  the geopolitical goals of any particular agent of change need not be very different from the current regime geopolitical goals.  Also, the current regime has had decades to inculcate acceptance and support of those goals in the general population, to the point where Russians have bound those goals into a mass,  albeit disjointed belief syatem that now equates fascist imperialism with Russianess. 

If anything,  echoing or hyper-amplifying those existing geopolitical goals and beliefs is now be a vital, basic accreditation that any agent of change will need  in order to be viewed as a viable alternative to the existing in-power Faction. 

This state of affairs is the poison pill of Putins regime,  the one factor that could save his personal bacon and political legacy. It's a major factor why I'm personally highly sceptical of true regime change as a result of battlefield losses on an expedition army war,  of distinctly different political systems emerging and a different  Russia rising up.  I'm not saying change is impossible,, just that the current Russky Mir mindset has not yet been discredited and its difficult to see what could do it for long enough to have permanent effect. War losses only have an effect while the Army is in Ukraine. Once it croses/kicked back, the losses stop hard and the internal nuclear fireball of War Weariness evaporates. 

How does any one faction or alliance manage to out-Putin, Putin himself? 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[kraze]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Except what about the nukes? How the  do you deal with those? Everybody knows, or at least assumes, that the Ukraine invasion would not have happened if they had kept the nukes in 1991. That is going to be uppermost on the minds of every single mafia boss looking to move up to head of state of Inner Crapistan. Not to mention ten or 15 bad actors bidding for the bleeping things. Honestly if I was in charge of Ukraine it would have some prominence on my to do list too, absent actual NATO membership.

It's not that hard, just takes a lot of time that will be worth it in the end.

In 1991 Russia was starving. But instead of taking those nukes in exchange for food - everybody just rushed to feed those poor guys for free.

it's just enough to not repeat the mistake again when that happens again during the empire's fall.

Just need to stop with the humanist BS about "but they are human beings too" at least for a couple of years until they prove they are ones.

[Zeleban]

Izyum defense plan

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

Or, better yet, once russian army is done for good here (even if there are reserves but they are all stuck here defending whatever they occupied) - we can see almost simultaneous actions of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan (and whatever entities inside the empire itself) taking back their land. Problem isn't putin, his fall solves nothing. Empire must collapse.

I mean we already see how russians are incapable of defending whatever they occupy in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan already treads carefully, yet surely, to retake what was stolen from them - only because they aren't sure yet if they can take on russian army, once it stops pretending to be "peaceful local citizens from Karabakh's People's Republic"

Yes. The empire must collapse. Not just Putin's regime.

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Izyum defense plan

Out of likes, but I owe you one.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[kraze]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army...

We would rather happily donate those oblasts to people who are into extreme survival sports. Not to mention that we already need to deal with russians from Belgorod and Rostov on Don who came here just this year.

[Grigb]

I have to be on the phone today as well. So, mini update:

1. RU reports UKR made crossing near Lyman

2. RU local soldier at Izum demands urgent actions from RU command (implying nothing is done yet) or Izum grouping will be surrounded and lost. Says Lyman loss=encirclement of Izum (AFAIR the last road from Izum is going through or near Lyman)

3. Izum has communication with RU land, just take more time (seems they are relying on that road at Lyman)

4. I think you saw video of UKR in Kypaunsk. I am guessing they were there for some time already - that's why RU destroyed the bridge. You do not blow the bridge if you hold enemy few km away. 

Kypaunsk as road and rail road logistics hub is lost. 

[Aragorn2002]

31 minutes ago, kraze said:

We would rather happily donate those oblasts to people who are into extreme survival sports. Not to mention that we already need to deal with russians from Belgorod and Rostov on Don who came here just this year.

Quite right. Ukraine should try to win all it's territory back, including the Crimea. But more would be a dangerous development and will only guarantee the rise of another lunatic like Putin and stiffen the fighting spirit of his followers and those who hesitate.  Remember Versailles, which basically wasn't anything else than a contract for another war in 20 years, as Lloyd George put it. 

There are other ways to weaken Russia. But let's not get carried away. This is far from over and a couple of counteroffensives just proves that Ukraine is getting stronger and our investments are paying off. Still a long, cold winter ahead, both in Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

Melting in the autumn sun.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian army soldiers sitting on the roof of an armed vehicle in Kharkiv, September 9, 2022, JUAN BARRETO / AFP"

* BMP-1

[Grigb]

It looks like UKR control western part (until bridge) of Kupynsk.

[poesel]

IF(!) some or all parts of Russia would break away, there would be no real problems with the nukes.

Why? What these new parts direly & immediately need is:

1. international recognition
2. trade contracts

Without 1) it will be difficult to stay a political entity, and you are likely to be gobbled up by a neighbor.
Without 2) there is no money and without that no state, either.

I guess those parts would be immediately recognized by Ukraine and the Baltics just for the fun of it and to get the ball rolling, but any negotiations with the West will have the #1 demand to destroy the nukes. With nukes, no contract, period.

With nukes, any new post-Russian state would stay a pariah forever.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Melting in the autumn sun.

Khereson looks like slow motion disaster now.

[Grigb]

Be carefull about RU reports that Kupyansk is taken. They are based on UKR photos from Western part.

[dan/california]

I am starting to suspect they carefully some of them to be captured.

[Taranis]

On 9/8/2022 at 1:04 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

1. Another video for the future scenario and mapmaking files. Hostomel.

2.  Pimp my ride, Varangian edition.

3. Reaching out and touching someone....

4.  A tank vs tank kinetic kill?  Pretty rare in this war, at least captured on drone camera...

 

 

Red effect's statement about the "T-90M" video :

 

[kevinkin]

Looking for additional articles on this one:

---

Russian police arrested five people who proposed officials arrest and charge Vladimir Putin with treason for his decision to launch the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to catastrophic outcomes for Russia and its interests. 

"The fact that several municipal deputies in St. Petersburg, Putin’s hometown, came forward accusing [him] of treason and calling for his removal is highly significant," Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer and author of "Putin’s Playbook," told Fox News Digital. 

"They know the punishment will be severe. They can easily face a death sentence based on Russian federal law. The significance of this act of defiance and dissent by a handful of Russian officials cannot be possibly overstated." 

---

Perhaps they have been posted already.

Edited September 10, 2022 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Be carefull about RU reports that Kupyansk is taken. They are based on UKR photos from Western part.

Thanks for reminding us about the fact the city spans both banks of the Oskii, that said, especially if Ukraine intends on using the Oskii as a anchor, wouldn't it be a bad idea to take over the left bank of Kupyansk? As long as they control the right bank, they can basically turn the railyard and etc into flaming bits and pieces no?

Tho it would be nice to seize it intact.

[Aragorn2002]

No update on ISW yet. They must have a lot to think about...

[LongLeftFlank]

Capitulation?

 

 

 

[Hapless]

Looks like an update on the blog, but not the site yet :https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_10.html

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Thanks for reminding us about the fact the city spans both banks of the Oskii, that said, especially if Ukraine intends on using the Oskii as a anchor, wouldn't it be a bad idea to take over the left bank of Kupyansk? As long as they control the right bank, they can basically turn the railyard and etc into flaming bits and pieces no?

Tho it would be nice to seize it intact.

Really hard to tell - we do not know RU situation. They might already prepared defensive positions there (see one of my previous post from Kupyansk). But because it is mess there, push across the river the might still work.