Grigb Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 UKR published video where UKR civilians mentions that liberated village is Oleksandrivka. Well, it might be that Oleksandrivka from Kherson (on my map to the West from Kherson, above Stanislav). It might mean UKR are turning RU left flank. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Judging from past wars, it seems the only thing that can save Russia now is if Ukraine outruns its supply lines and artillery due to a superfluity of success and has to pause to catch its breath. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Grigb said: UKR published video where UKR civilians mentions that liberated village is Oleksandrivka. Well, it might be that Oleksandrivka from Kherson (on my map to the West from Kherson, above Stanislav). It might mean UKR are turning RU left flank. Thede were some mentions about Oleksandrivka just north of Vesele in Kharkiv being liberated today, maybe they meant that one? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: What on earth is happening. Seems like about a 100km of Russian front is collapsing. With no reserves in sight. Definitely has that collapsing feeling doesn't it? Answer likely is: the Russians spread themselves too thin, wasted people and resources to take tiny patches of ground in the Donbas, for "reasons", UA HIMARed them in depth breaking logistics, and now the whole rotten side of the house is caving in. A little later than we had hoped (I think we were talking Jun-Jul) but hey, looking very promising. Edited September 9, 2022 by The_Capt 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Funny bit - RU published video with SOBR guy from Balaklya. He says: Russians! Forward! But the sound and motion he is in fast driving van, means it is their retreat from Balaklya. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I don't know how long Putin has left. Now that we see some UA success I humbly suggest three possible time frames for the end of Putin's regime. I think it will either happen in the next month or two - I favour this one. Over the winter or by June of next year at the latest. General Mud will start making an appearance in Ukraine in October or November that will suspend the fighting for the winter. If the current collapse gets worse then someone will react in before Winter and end Putin. If the RA can stabilize the front even a little before general mud calls the season then Putin could survive the winter. Could. If he does then once the UA beat the living **** out of the RA in the late spring early summer someone will take out Putin then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Huba said: Thede were some mentions about Oleksandrivka just north of Vesele in Kharkiv being liberated today, maybe they meant that one? Could be. But civilian gives watermelon to soldiers. So, I am leaning toward Kherson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, IanL said: I don't know how long Putin has left. Now that we see some UA success I humbly suggest three possible time frames for the end of Putin's regime. I think it will either happen in the next month or two - I favour this one. Over the winter or by June of next year at the latest. General Mud will start making an appearance in Ukraine in October or November that will suspend the fighting for the winter. If the current collapse gets worse then someone will react in before Winter and end Putin. If the RA can stabilize the front even a little before general mud calls the season then Putin could survive the winter. Could. If he does then once the UA beat the living **** out of the RA in the late spring early summer someone will take out Putin then. I've always thought of the end of Putin as some kind of coup. But maybe it doesn't look like that. Maybe that vote by the council in St Petersburg means something. What if regional gov'ts decide on their own to stop taking orders from Putin. Putin's power stems from men w guns ready to make people follow orders. What if regional govts are able to muster enough rifles & men to just say 'no!' when a dozen FSB men show up? Maybe Putin's fall is just from various entities around Russia simply refusing to take his orders, condemning him, and having enough local firepower to back it up since the army is rather busy being destroyed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I was going to ask about whether the UA is rolling over Russians and killing them vs. capturing them, and apparently Arestovych has started to answer that: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 minute ago, chrisl said: I was going to ask about whether the UA is rolling over Russians and killing them vs. capturing them, and apparently Arestovych has started to answer that: ahh wasn't it mentioned here recently that the real sneaky Russian plan was to overwhelm UA resources with PoWs? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Definitely has that collapsing feeling doesn't it? Answer likely is: the Russians spread themselves too thin, wasted people and resources to take tiny patches of ground in the Donbas, for "reasons", UA HIMARed them in depth breaking logistics, and now the whole rotten side of the house is caving in. A little later than we had hoped (I think we were talking Jun-Jul) but hey looking very promising. This gives the RA less time to try to get reorganized before the mud arrives. Anybody the UA doesn't get in the offensive will probably have a very poorly supplied autumn. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 After showing up there this morning to assure us everything was under control and there was no panic, WarGonzo Pegov finds himself really needing to very quickly leave Izium in the evening: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 March them west in chains, when they are far enough west make them build their own camps....As fun as that would be I expect the AFU have done more planning than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Just to note about Velykij Burluk- infoabout shelling was from Telegram of Z.Prilepin, known compere of Russian Nats sphere. It is hard to believe, but if (big if) Ukrainians manage to capture it, they can open road north toward Russia border... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, akd said: After showing up there this morning to assure us everything was under control and there was no panic, WarGonzo Pegov finds himself really needing to very quickly leave Izium in the evening: Please let his next broadcast be from the chow line of a POW camp. Edit: Would he technically be a POW? Or could they just accidentally leave him in handcuffs in room full of AZOV widows. Edited September 9, 2022 by dan/california 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I finally managed to catch up. Regarding Izum - info about fighting at Izum extremely unreliable. I see no major fighting there yet. But Izum already have only one road left for communication. And this the road is dangerous to use after night fall due to UKR recon groups. According to UKR rumors they expects noticeable part of RU will be able to leg it out of forming Izum pocket but without vehicles and equipment. Lyman situation is unclear - UKR seems to be moving there but apart from that I see no info. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, sburke said: ahh wasn't it mentioned here recently that the real sneaky Russian plan was to overwhelm UA resources with PoWs? Yeah. The other problem is that at the current rate of advance, Ukraine will have to stop liberating more towns soon, because they will run out of flags to raise. Edited September 9, 2022 by Letter from Prague 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Yeah. The other problem is that at the current rate of advance, Ukraine will have to stop liberating more towns soon, because they will run out of flags to raise. Babushkas will sew more. Sheets boiled with food coloring if that is what it takes. Edited September 9, 2022 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, dan/california said: Babushkas will sew more. Sheets boiled with food coloring if that is what it takes. They can be included in the next NATO airlift. Maybe package one with every ATGM. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Grigb said: I finally managed to catch up. Regarding Izum - info about fighting at Izum extremely unreliable. I see no major fighting there yet. But Izum already have only one road left for communication. And this the road is dangerous to use after night fall due to UKR recon groups. According to UKR rumors they expects noticeable part of RU will be able to leg it out of forming Izum pocket but without vehicles and equipment. Yup, some pro-UA journalists and accounts seem to slightly hold their horses in last 2 hours, especially regarding Izyum. I only hope Russians will not mount some counterattack, it's already 4 days Ukrainians ride over their necks like cattle and no sign of any serious resistance... Clip from oleksandrivka, weather and melons may indeed point to Kherson. Edited September 9, 2022 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Read the whole thread! Not just me BSing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Video reportedly from V.Burluk from today. That means Ukrainian attack has northern prong as well : 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 As the line from Mississippi Burning movie.... "Looks like the rattlesnakes are committing suicide", referring to the Klan members starting to turn on each other. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 (edited) A bit of humor: I posted this yesterday, but it seems today it is even more true: Edited September 9, 2022 by Huba 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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