How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

20 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. Saw that film on Netflix. Very sad story how that bombing of Jeanne d´Arc school came about. War is hell.

 

14 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, it is. I live and work close by, and I think of it every time I pass by the memorial.

Anyway, back to the topic of Ukraine.

+1, out of reactions.

Indeed. I know this is a very Commonwealth thing for me to say, but we really need a Remembrance poppy reaction...

[poesel]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

This literally applies to every populated place on earth. Not just the 'exceptional' US.

Well, except for Central Africa.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers fire at the front line in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Saturday, September 3, 2022. KOSTIANTYN LIBEROV / AP"

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The multimillionaire [50], whose US$100-million fortune earned him the 88th spot on the Forbes list of the 100 wealthiest Ukrainians, has started his own battalion, leading 200 volunteers.

Ukrainian authorities have provided the volunteers in his battalion with military equipment, but everything else – vehicles, food, medical supplies, even salaries – is funded by Mr. Kozhemiako and his business partners....

The Mykolaiv home of Oleksiy Vadaturskyy was hit by three Russian missiles. The 74-year-old entrepreneur died with his wife under the debris of his house. His firm, Nibulon, is one of Ukraine’s largest grain producers and exporters, and Mr. Vadaturskyy’s fortune was estimated by Forbes to be about US$450-million before his death. He had bought medical supplies and armoured vehicles for the military, and his firm even repaired military equipment.

“We do help a lot, but we don’t talk openly about this – otherwise Russian rockets will hit our plant,” explained one of the owners of a large pharmaceutical company. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/world/article-russia-war-ukraine-millionaires/

(quotes pasted above)

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

 

 

UA General Staff morning report is out. They started reporting about Kherson again, and they mentioned enemy shelling in Novovaskresenske, which is really deep inside RU held territory. If that is right, it would mean that UA managed to break 10 km inside RU positions. It would be great to have some other confirmation of course, but sounds very optimistic nonetheless:

Might be a decent chance they are referring to: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aNEUGcJnqfAZ4aMz8

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Huba]

Finally, no more BS. Now is the time for reciprocal FU in Russia's direction, hopefully in form of heavy vehicles and aircraft crossing PL-UA border.

 

[Butschi]

27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Finally, no more BS. Now is the time for reciprocal FU in Russia's direction, hopefully in form of heavy vehicles and aircraft crossing PL-UA border.

 

Interesting they'd officially admit it... But it's really not like anyone actually believed in technical issues.

Don't get your hopes up, though. As far as I am aware, the reluctance to deliver tanks and/or aircraft is not caused by fear of the Russians turning off gas supply but by fear of escalating the war itself. I mean, I wouldn't vouch for my own government but surely the US would already be delivering that kind of equipment - they are not dependent on Russian gas.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Butschi

[BletchleyGeek]

I recommend to set aside some time to watch Perin latest video. The topics covered couldn't be more timely.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Interesting they'd officially admit it... But it's really not like anyone actually believed in technical issues.

Don't get your hopes up, though. As far as I am aware, the reluctance to deliver tanks and/or aircraft is not caused by fear of the Russians turning off gas supply but by fear of escalating the war itself. I mean, I wouldn't vouch for my own government but what reason surely the US would already be delivering that kind of equipment.

Yeah I know, if anything it will be the US leading the way on that. Still, I think that a kind of a tit for tat really is in order, it is the only language Russia understands. Not answering in kind means losing face here.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Mk1 one eyeball the Russians need pull out the Northern 1/4 of what they are holding in the Kherson pocket while they still have enough room to make it a pull out and not the Highway of Death, Ukrainian edition, part one. They have some their ever shrinking supply of VDV and other elite units up there. Mind I am happy make popcorn and pour a beer to watch that show...

If confirmed, these are some very good indicators.  I would only add here that this is an attrition-to-manoeuvre based strategy at play, or at least I suspect so.  That means that while taking ground is an indicator it is secondary to the primary, which is taking RA off the board at a rate their already stressed system cannot sustain.  If/once the RA buckles from the pressure of that attrition, then we may see more manoeuvre warfare that we recognize better.  This is corrosive warfare.

[womble]

52 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yeah I know, if anything it will be the US leading the way on that. Still, I think that a kind of a tit for tat really is in order, it is the only language Russia understands. Not answering in kind means losing face here.

And "tit for tat" or "in kind" here means

MOAR SANCTIONS!!! .

Not more weapons. Russia is banking on the uncomfortable winter to sap European will. Let's see how fast Russian will drains away once tougher, broader sanctions start biting. Including confiscation of assets.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by womble

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Interesting they'd officially admit it... But it's really not like anyone actually believed in technical issues.

Don't get your hopes up, though. As far as I am aware, the reluctance to deliver tanks and/or aircraft is not caused by fear of the Russians turning off gas supply but by fear of escalating the war itself. I mean, I wouldn't vouch for my own government but surely the US would already be delivering that kind of equipment - they are not dependent on Russian gas.

Correct. Equipment provision is being stepped to manage escalation. Aircraft and other limitations will likely end if Russia uses chemical weapons and direct intervention will result in the case of Russia using a nuke. 

[akd]

 

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Finally, no more BS. Now is the time for reciprocal FU in Russia's direction, hopefully in form of heavy vehicles and aircraft crossing PL-UA border.

 

The EU has been planning to be off Russian gas by Dec 1-22 or into 2023. The EU average storage is up to 75%, the EU target. . Putin is trying try maximum disruption in the EU.  He has now played all his gas cards. At the outset of the invasion he would have never dreamed of such a scenario. 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, akd said:

 

Damn, they are using MRAPs as IVFs with tanks. You work with what you have of course, but that just doesn't feel right  West could do better than that.

[Artkin]

Yeah those Mrap's are sitting on top of the front line, I never thought I would see them used that way. Pretty risky

[DesertFox]

Chornobaevka the gazillions time...

 

 

[Huba]

Just now, Grossman said:

The EU has been planning to be off Russian gas by Dec 1-22 or into 2023. The EU average storage is up to 75%, the EU target. . Putin is trying try maximum disruption in the EU.  He has now played all his gas cards. At the outset of the invasion he would have never dreamed of such a scenario. 

He is still pumping the gas to Ukraine paradoxically,through the same pipe that supports Hungary, Slovakia and AFAIK Austria. If he reduces the supply there, I bet Ukraine won't have a problem to halt the gas going further west. I wonder how this will play out during the winter.

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, womble said:

And "tit for tat" or "in kind" here means

MOAR SANCTIONS!!! .

Not more weapons. Russia is banking on the uncomfortable winter to sap European will. Let's see how fast Russian will drains away once tougher, broader sanctions start biting. Including confiscation of assets.

 

 

 

 

Assuming translation is correct and FT didn't leave out relevant parts, what's interesting is that they want the sanctions to be lifted. I'd have thought weapon deliveries are the most pressing issue and lifting the sanctions would only help in the long run.

They wager everything on this winter. If they thought they could last longer, the smarter move (in the long run) would be to keep some gas flooring and making up all sorts of technical problems. We know they are lying but as long as they overtly honor the contract they are in a better position. Yes, Germany and other European countries may stop buying gas asap but that doesn't really matter. Wether we take the gas or not, we still have to pay for a large part of it - as long as the contract remains intact. The only way out is via an embargo from either side. If we would have been willing to do that we'd have already done it. The Russians openly admitting they will not entirely fulfill the contract could be seen as cancelling it from their side. Don't know, I'm not a lawyer. But in addition this way they again show how unreliable they which makes it even more difficult for mainstream people here who argue that week shouldn't hurt ourselves more than the Russians.

[DesertFox]

Happy fishing...

 

 

[Grigb]

I am becoming even more suspeciou or Rybar post lately. He is becoming shy about reporting Kherson situation and I feel he is trying to hide the real picture. Firms is not very useful today. So, as per @Huba post let's look at villages RU shelled up until 6 AM today. while shelling does not indicate village is under UKR control it does indicate UKR troops are near.

Left to right

• UKR troops are holding positions near Oleksandrivka but otherwise the RU flank seems to be holding there 
• It is not clear what Kiselevska was shelled - near Mykolaiv-Kherson highway or near Mykolaiv-Snihirevka. There are reports of UKR activity in both places.
• Bridgeheads settlements get hit hard. As per Rybar it is possible RU is counter-attacking there
• As @Huba said it looks like UKR made relatively deep penetration toward Novovoskresens'ke. This flank seems to be most vulnerable. And looks like this is where UKR are focusing

Still need to remind about what @The_Capt said:

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

If confirmed, these are some very good indicators.  I would only add here that this is an attrition-to-manoeuvre based strategy at play, or at least I suspect so.  That means that while taking ground is an indicator it is secondary to the primary, which is taking RA off the board at a rate their already stressed system cannot sustain.  If/once the RA buckles from the pressure of that attrition, then we may see more manoeuvre warfare that we recognize better.  This is corrosive warfare.

RU is buckling at East and there are RU rumors that Ru suffered heavy losses there (claim - 2nd battalion 83rd Ussyrisk VDV brigade was destroyed) but RU is still holding at West and at Bridgheads. But the general situation is not as good as RU pretends, they are holding due to aviation now.

Quote

Vysokopolye, as well as a number of settlements, was occupied by the enemy, in fact, a very difficult situation in the direction of Kherson, our forces are on the defensive, pulling up reserves for counter-attacks, fighting is going on. Aviation helps out a lot, pilots are really Heroes, without them there would be pitchfork [very bad].

The mood of RU Nats is already changing as well - they are already expects that there won't be victory except Putin claim.

Quote

Oleg Tsarev very correctly notes that the victory of [similar to] May 1945 format is not worth waiting for. We have entered an era of the most powerful historical turbulence. There will be a victory. But military operations will end not when [there will be] "banner of victory over the Reichstag", but when the president of Russia decides that military methods have given the results necessary for Russia. The chairman has decided to launch the operation, and at some point he will  also decide to end the hostilities. We can give our assessments of what is happening. We can advise the president and the country's leaders on something. Perhaps they will even listen to us.

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

Drone bombers are improving faster than WW1 aircraft it seems. Compare these badboys to the crappy contraptions from few months ago that were dropping handgranedes in bottles. I can't find the link right now, but I saw some Polish project that was  armed with DPICM, this sounds like the perfect weapon for the bomber drones. Oh, and I picked up a new favorite neologism - "Bombodron".

[Grigb]

About mines - RU remotely mining UKR villages with petal mines

 

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

The EU has been planning to be off Russian gas by Dec 1-22 or into 2023. The EU average storage is up to 75%, the EU target. . Putin is trying try maximum disruption in the EU.  He has now played all his gas cards. At the outset of the invasion he would have never dreamed of such a scenario. 

Yup. Broader population sentiments are not following rational data but emotions, though; they don't know we are stronger. This will be Russian schwehrpunkt in this game now, not even political elites themselves. Expect massive protests, in accordance with KGB playbooks.

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

hey wager everything on this winter. If they thought they could last longer, the smarter move (in the long run) would be to keep some gas flooring and making up all sorts of technical problems. We know they are lying but as long as they overtly honor the contract they are in a better position. Yes, Germany and other European countries may stop buying gas asap but that doesn't really matter. Wether we take the gas or not, we still have to pay for a large part of it - as long as the contract remains intact. The only way out is via an embargo from either side. If we would have been willing to do that we'd have already done it. The Russians openly admitting they will not entirely fulfill the contract could be seen as cancelling it from their side. Don't know, I'm not a lawyer. But in addition this way they again show how unreliable they which makes it even more difficult for mainstream people here who argue that week shouldn't hurt ourselves more than the Russians.

This reinforce previous point- targets now are not business interests (with assorted rules, like reliability) but purely public notions of what Russian can do. I'd expect him now to turn the valve on and off in following months to swing public mood even more. It is analogous to Skripal murder- point is not gaining something, but sowing chaos and doubts alone. Very characteristic for Putin and his background.

We lost "rubbles for euro" rund, so it was ofc signal for him to use even more stick and carrot. What is troubling is that he may have much better recognition what is happening among Western business and partly political circles in the West than he had about military situation at Ukraine. Really awaiting what will be our short-term collective response now.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Beleg85