How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

On 8/24/2022 at 6:14 AM, Haiduk said:

Lt.colonel Sergey Privalov, killed on 17th of June. Unit unknown.

@sburke @Kinophile

Privalov was a member of the FSB VOG-9 unit and was killed trying to arrest a drunk 8th Separate Artillery Regiment soldier in Kherson.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by akd

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

As I understand it: the fog is doing the eating, the snow is being eaten. It refers to a particular and real meteorological phenomenon in which fog rolls in over a heavily snow covered piece of terrain, then when the fog lifts the snow is just ... gone.

Serves me right for trying to be humourous and snarky when a skull shooting freeking laser beams from its eyes is patrolling the thread.... 

I once had a high concept gourmet dinner (on a client's dime) in Barcelona. One of the 8 courses was rabbit paired with stingray (chased down IIRC with a mellow Tokaj). So I mused aloud whether the rabbit was fed on stingray, or the reverse, or whether they both got starved, tossed into a shallow pool and left to fight it out....

Sorry, where was I again?

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

First off @LongLeftFlank has said he is a Canadian expat; however, it is clear he does not hail from Atlantic Canada or he would know the term by heart 

Shall I tiktok a few bars of 'Farewell to Nova Scotia' over to you?

... And btw Sir, you really do need to get an avatar. That generic "T" just doesn't cut it any more. Unless you're a Toronto grad, or like yodeling (not that there's anything wrong with either....)

 

Suggestions follow:

And here ends my OT catechism. The Ignore button is over there.

[Grigb]

Extremly interesting development

Quote

"Sahih al-Bukhari" is included in the list of extremist books

"Sahih al-Bukhari" is included in the list of extremist books
The Ministry of Justice has included one of the six main collection book of the Sunni Islamic tradition "Sahih al-Bukhari" in the list of extremist materials. According to the information and analytical center "Owl" (entered in the register of foreign agents), the decision to recognize the hadith as extremist was made by the Laishevsky Court of Tatarstan in December 2021, and on July 5 of this year the Supreme Court of Tatarstan approved the decision.

This is slap on Kadyrov face because Kadyrov plays role kind of Islamic defender in RU. If he ignores it, he will lose reputation and if he does not then there is good cause to arrest him as an extremist. Well, Kadyrov already stated his extreme displeasure.

Given that he is goon of Putin it begs a question how Putin has allowed it to happen. And who controls the power now in RU? Because Supreme Court of Tatarstan would not do a thing without consulting Kremlin. So, we have two versions:

1. Kadyrov did something so Putin got mad decided to get rid of his most loyal ally 
2. Somebody already disconnected Putin from at least some of the State decision making procedures and is making move to get rid of Putin most loyal ally. 

This story is our window inside Kremlin power struggle. I do not believe in Kadyrov did something extremely bad for Putin. I do believe that there is power struggle and we can see the degree of Putin control over RU by watching if decision is reversed in coming days. 

If the decision is reversed, he is still in power. If not - oh, boy, there is a coup and it is half successful already. 

[UPDATE] Actually it is even worse - Kadyrov de fact o gave ultimatum to RU gov but it sounds like  he gave it to Russians upsetting some hot headed RU Nats. Somebody sets Putin allies against each other.   

Edited September 1, 2022 by Grigb

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Extremly interesting development

This is slap on Kadyrov face because Kadyrov plays role kind of Islamic defender in RU. If he ignores it, he will lose reputation and if he does not then there is good cause to arrest him as an extremist. Well, Kadyrov already stated his extreme displeasure.

Given that he is goon of Putin it begs a question how Putin has allowed it to happen. And who controls the power now in RU? Because Supreme Court of Tatarstan would not do a thing without consulting Kremlin. So, we have two versions:

1. Kadyrov did something so Putin got mad decided to get rid of his most loyal ally 
2. Somebody already disconnected Putin from at least some of the State decision making procedures and is making move to get rid of Putin most loyal ally. 

This story is our window inside Kremlin power struggle. I do not believe in Kadyrov did something extremely bad for Putin. I do believe that there is power struggle and we can see the degree of Putin control over RU by watching if decision is reversed in coming days. 

If the decision is reversed, he is still in power. If not - oh, boy, there is a coup and it is half successful already.   

Occam's razor. Some bureaucrat did bureaucracy. It's a book with weird language different from russian. Different from russian = extremist. Easy.

Expect it to be reversed and whoever did this apologize to kadyrov.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Occam's razor. Some bureaucrat did bureaucracy. It's a book with weird language different from russian. Different from russian = extremist. Easy.

Now back to reality - the decision was made by Supreme Court of Tatarstan. Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Republic of Tatarstan is Gilazov, Ilgiz Idrisovich. This is what he said about himself

Quote

I was raised by my grandmother, who laid the foundations of Islam for us. I am a believer. Presenting myself before the Almighty, I should say: "Maybe I didn't succeed, but I tried to do it"

Compare this fact with your statement above. 

Whoever came with this plan is smart because he covered RU gov *ss - It is not us, it Muslims themselves.

 

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

No doubt some corpses will be conveniently found. Perhaps garbed as sinister British commandos!

....And in the pocket of one will be found a droll note from Lord Mountbatten: "He might bring some sardines with him - they are 'on points' here!"

Jolly good!

Written in Russian.

[Grigb]

Rybar admitted what RU (including Rybar himself) previously denied:

Quote

There are several security chains at the NPP. It is guarded by soldiers of the Russian Guard, equipped with heavy vehicles [in RU it means AFV and tanks]. To break through the defense lines armed only with light small arms by the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces is an extremely difficult task.

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats already spreading this BS

• it was Boris Johnson who brought the plan of operation to Kiev
• It was sort of last his deed as UK PM
• But in case of success he planned to declare major international crisis with global consequences and refuse to hand over the position of PM
•  He also brought with him military trainers
• British MI-6 officers coordinated the operation from villa near Kiev
• 6-8 British officer were killed

This is beyond beautiful.

I try to follow Russian fascination with everything British in this conflict, and it is already like Alice in Wonderland on acid. Somebody will need to write a solid anthropological wok about this phenomenon when war ends. Still don't know if it is more phantom pain after "Londongrad", ambition to level up to Victorian imperialism esthetics, some very late burps after Crimean War or urge to find equal adversary with Anglophilia masked as Anglophobia. Or simply too much exposure to British cinema (Bond...)and Netflix serials. But it is very real phenomenon that just keeps giving so much joy (or rather would be, if not the grim circumstances).

Edited September 1, 2022 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

55 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Extremly interesting development

This is slap on Kadyrov face because Kadyrov plays role kind of Islamic defender in RU. If he ignores it, he will lose reputation and if he does not then there is good cause to arrest him as an extremist. Well, Kadyrov already stated his extreme displeasure.

Given that he is goon of Putin it begs a question how Putin has allowed it to happen. And who controls the power now in RU? Because Supreme Court of Tatarstan would not do a thing without consulting Kremlin. So, we have two versions:

1. Kadyrov did something so Putin got mad decided to get rid of his most loyal ally 
2. Somebody already disconnected Putin from at least some of the State decision making procedures and is making move to get rid of Putin most loyal ally. 

This story is our window inside Kremlin power struggle. I do not believe in Kadyrov did something extremely bad for Putin. I do believe that there is power struggle and we can see the degree of Putin control over RU by watching if decision is reversed in coming days. 

If the decision is reversed, he is still in power. If not - oh, boy, there is a coup and it is half successful already. 

[UPDATE] Actually it is even worse - Kadyrov de fact o gave ultimatum to RU gov but it sounds like  he gave it to Russians upsetting some hot headed RU Nats. Somebody sets Putin allies against each other.   

Sorry, I don't even get the background, maybe you can explain. I mean Sunni Islam is the second largest religious group in Tatarstan. So, power struggle or not, why should someone forbid one of the most important books for a significant part of your population - someone who is a member of that part of the population - unless he wants a nice little civil war... ? Am I missing the important bit of information here?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Serves me right for trying to be humourous and snarky when a skull shooting freeking laser beams from its eyes is patrolling the thread.... 

I once had a high concept gourmet dinner (on a client's dime) in Barcelona. One of the 8 courses was rabbit paired with stingray (chased down IIRC with a mellow Tokaj). So I mused aloud whether the rabbit was fed on stingray, or the reverse, or whether they both got starved, tossed into a shallow pool and left to fight it out....

 

The Rabbit did the eating of course.. just look at the bones!

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

The Rabbit did the eating of course.. just look at the bones!

 

[Billy Ringo]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, I don't even get the background, maybe you can explain. I mean Sunni Islam is the second largest religious group in Tatarstan. So, power struggle or not, why should someone forbid one of the most important books for a significant part of your population - someone who is a member of that part of the population - unless he wants a nice little civil war... ? Am I missing the important bit of information here?

And, could this create additional internal friction between the Russian government and their Islamic population?  (Not just Kadyrov and the Chechens but on an even bigger internal scale.) 

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I try to follow Russian fascination with everything British in this conflict, and it is already like Alice in Wonderland on acid. 

Hey, let me post something actually OT.

Just read an interesting piece by an author I respect (though often differ with) on the idea of Russia-Germany as a historical counterweight to the (perfidious!) Anglo-Saxons. Which purports to explain some of Germany's diffidence toward Putin. 

https://policytensor.substack.com/p/the-moscow-berlin-line

... I mean, other than some slight unpleasantness in 1914-18 and 1941-45.

As a longtime Diplomacy player, I find this thesis interesting, but it doesn't in fact flange that well with history, and kind of ignores other major players like France and the non-Russian Slavs.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

This is beyond beautiful.

I try to follow Russian fascination with everything British in this conflict, and it is already like Alice in Wonderland on acid. Somebody will need to write a solid anthropological wok about this phenomenon when war ends. Still don't know if it is more phantom pain after "Londongrad", ambition to level up to Victorian imperialism esthetics, some very late burps after Crimean War or simply Anglophilia masked as Anglophobia. Or simply too much exposure to British cinema (Bond...)and Netflix serials. But it is very real phenomenon that just keeps giving so much joy (or rather would be, if not the grim circumstances).

And the worst of all is the question of what these people will do when the war is over. Whose doors they will come knocking seeking revenge. They are not exactly smart and competent, but we know that it is not the main requirement for mass murdering other people.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, let me post something actually OT.

Just read an interesting piece by an author I respect (though often differ with) on the idea of Russia-Germany as a historical counterweight to the (perfidious!) Anglo-Saxons. Which purports to explain some of Germany's diffidence toward Putin. 

https://policytensor.substack.com/p/the-moscow-berlin-line

... I mean, other than some slight unpleasantness in 1914-18 and 1941-45.

As a longtime Diplomacy player, I find this thesis interesting, but it doesn't in fact flange that well with history, and kind of ignores other major players like France and the non-Russian Slavs.

There are a lot of dubious assertions in there...not least: "Why did Russo-Western relations break down in 2022? We do not know what precisely happened on the Ukrainian question". It's also a fairly bizarre thing to write off the economics of Russian gas for Germany or what has already happened and is about to happen to the Russian economy from the sanctions regime. 

Finally, he used the term "dyad". Automatic memory hole offense.

Edited September 1, 2022 by billbindc

[Huba]

First satellite photo of Antonovsky bridge after the recent big strikes:

 

[Kinophile]

On 8/31/2022 at 9:41 AM, Battlefront.com said:

They are not accustomed to Russia being on the brink of total collapse at the hands of üntermensch.   

Okay, hold up.

Let's agree on some common descriptions and understandings. 

Can you clarify what you mean when you say total collapse? 

Is that societal,  military, regime, cultural,  scientific, what? 

You're describing some fairly dramatic consequences for what is fundamentally an expeditionary campaign that has no real consequences for Russia as a national entity - its borders will still be secure, the police apparatus will still function,  food supply will still be sufficient and oil/gas will still flow. While some extremists might draw some kind of demented zig-zag line from the loss of Kherson to the fall of Russia, its a big ask to get the other 99.999% of Russian society to make that connection and arrive at similar conclusions, to one degree or another. Or any degree,  tbh. And sure, a revolution doesn't need 99% approval  (ebthe Bolshies probably had at best 30% support even within St. Petesberg /Moscow before the civil war). 

So, ok, there could be a change in which mafia gang claims the Kremlin but there's zero indications of anything that could lead to "collapse". 

Big claims need big proof, and all that... 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[Grigb]

42 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, I don't even get the background, maybe you can explain. I mean Sunni Islam is the second largest religious group in Tatarstan. So, power struggle or not, why should someone forbid one of the most important books for a significant part of your population - someone who is a member of that part of the population - unless he wants a nice little civil war... ? Am I missing the important bit of information here?

It is because you get used to the western system of justice. Behind legal theater RU justice works differently. It does not matter what the law says. What matters is how it applied. Selective justice is the cornerstone of RU.

It does not matter what they forbit. What matters is whether they enforce it rigorously.  In Tatarstan they will not enforce it at all, so there won't be any problems. Actually, it won't be enforced anywhere except in a few selective cases against political troublemakers. So, itself it will not cause any major disturbances. 

On other hand (apart from Kadyrov) it allows RU gov to make nonpolitical case against practically any religious Sunni. You does not like a particular Sunni imam? Off he goes to prison. You need to recruit Sunni Muslim to be agent - search his house and holding the book make him offer he cannot refuse. You do not like any Muslim organization? Raid it and lock them all up.  

Somebody is preparing not just move against Kadyrov but against whole RU Sunni Muslims as well. Somebody plans to show RU Muslims their true place. As if he is RU Nat.

Just saying...

[Grigb]

39 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

And, could this create additional internal friction between the Russian government and their Islamic population?  (Not just Kadyrov and the Chechens but on an even bigger internal scale.) 

It should if RU gov enforce it too rigorously. But otherwise, I do not think it will make a difference.  However, Kadyrov might stir the pot enough for friction to appear, especially in Chechnya. But I am not Muslim so cannot say whether it is plausible scenario. 

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Okay, hold up.

Let's agree on some common descriptions and understandings. 

Can you clarify what you mean when you say total collapse? 

Is that societal,  military, regime, cultural,  scientific, what? 

You're describing some fairly dramatic consequences for what is fundamentally an expeditionary campaign that has no real consequences for Russia as a national entity - its borders will still be secure, the police apparatus will still function,  food supply will still be sufficient and oil/gas will still flow. While some extremists might draw some kind of demented zig-zag line from the loss of Kherson to the fall of Russia, its a big ask to get the other 99.999% of Russian society to make that connection and arrive at similar conclusions, to one degree or another. Or any degree,  tbh. And sure, a revolution doesn't need 99% approval  (ebthe Bolshies probably had at best 30% support even within St. Petesberg /Moscow before the civil war). 

So, ok, there could be a change in which mafia gang claims the Kremlin but there's zero indications of anything that could lead to "collapse". 

Big claims need big proof, and all that... 

Russia is still far from collapsing. To pretend otherwise is just wishful thinking.

[BlackMoria]

Given how prickly Muslims tend to be against perceived threats to their faith, I don't see this playing well outside of Russia and Tatarstan.

So, two things come to mind. 

 1. Placate Iran (Shia) to get them closer to Russia.   

2.  Bonehead move because if the world largely hates you, might as well double down.

I'm thinking it is 1.   But I can't rule out 2.   Because stupid is as stupid does.

[Grigb]

34 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, let me post something actually OT.

Just read an interesting piece by an author I respect (though often differ with) on the idea of Russia-Germany as a historical counterweight to the (perfidious!) Anglo-Saxons. Which purports to explain some of Germany's diffidence toward Putin. 

https://policytensor.substack.com/p/the-moscow-berlin-line

... I mean, other than some slight unpleasantness in 1914-18 and 1941-45.

As a longtime Diplomacy player, I find this thesis interesting, but it doesn't in fact flange that well with history, and kind of ignores other major players like France and the non-Russian Slavs.

BTW, Putin is Germanophile and as result current elite is sort of Germanophile as well. I mean they do not care about language or culture but they like external attributes like black Mercedes or black G-Wagon and generaly German technology. 

[Huba]

And here are 2 videos of Bayraktar blowing s**t up somewhere in Kherson. We didn't see such footage since few months. To me it's a clear indicator that RU air defense on the right bank is degraded to the point that Bayraktars dare to hang out around the front. I wonder if the Azerbaijani LGBs are being used, environment might be permitting it. But perhaps the most important thing is that UA should have access to medium altitude drone reconnaissance, with all the advantages it offers.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

The Ukrainian army, which has been leading a counter-offensive towards Kherson since August 29, faces artillery fire and reinforcements from Russian troops

Quote

The Ukrainian army launched, on August 29, its most ambitious counter-offensive since the beginning of the Russian invasion on February 24. From the fronts east of Mykolaiv and south of Kryvyi Rih, the armed forces of kyiv attack in the direction of the Kherson region, the only Ukrainian regional capital to have been conquered by the army of Moscow, without significant combat , from the first week of the war.

In Mykolaiv, back from the front, an officer, V., agrees to confide, on condition of anonymity, his impressions of the first two days of battle. "It's hard," he said immediately. The Russians have concentrated a lot of troops in the south. They brought in reinforcements. He describes a Russian army that reacts very differently depending on location and unit. “On the front line, the Russian soldiers are panicking. They loot the villages where they are stationed and flee. On the other hand, tank and artillery fire is intense and, in some places, there is fierce fighting. »

 

source : Le Monde

Edited September 1, 2022 by Taranis

[Grigb]

Putin said today something... strange

He literally said: "Diligence is generally a separate talent, it's not just, sorry, a rubber butt (laughs)". It is not Russian phrase like at all. It is just plain nonsense. 

I do not know if he is still sane, but I do know that he has a new nickname now.