How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Ru Nats are sobering. They started to discuss the possibility that RU is on defensive now. And they do not like it.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Grigb

[dan/california]

From ISW

The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces are deploying elements of the newly-formed 3rd Army Corps, which is at least in part composed of inexperienced volunteers, to reinforce neglected Russian positions in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[10] The deployment of the 3rd Army Corps may indicate that Russian forces seek to recoup combat power for use in offensive operations around Donetsk City or defensive operations in Kherson by replacing experienced troops with raw and poorly trained volunteer units.

From me

The Ukrainian General Staff would never go looking for a stretch of line held by raw recruits would they? I men that wouldn't be sporting. A battalion or twos worth of freshly abandoned T-90s would be nice though. 

[Grigb]

Kharkiv is hit hard:

Quote

On the Kharkov front, just tin is happening right now! Everything that is now flying towards Kharkov! Judgment Night, it is! I have seen it like this only once - on February 24 here.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainian General Staff would never go looking for a stretch of line held by raw recruits would they? I men that wouldn't be sporting. A battalion or twos worth of freshly abandoned T-90s would be nice though. 

Have a blast, kid....

 

****

Things happening on the 'quiet front' between Dniepr bend and Donetsk?  Hulyaipole.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

Useful bits from RU frontline reporter 

• At this moment, our people are being hacked in the Olhino area, almost surrounded by [UKR] fire
• The result of the "offensive" of the APU on the 1st day is 6 km and 5 settlements. [He] have made progress in our weak spot, where there were "mobiks" from the DPR [looks like it is Bridgeheads initial penetration]
• [Funny claim] The enemy launched the "faggots" from the 3 brigades trained by the British. Well-prepared, motivated, personnel [It looks like UK trained units became RU boogeyman]
•  In Olhino he [UKR advance] was blocked by the 45th brigade of the SPN Airborne Forces with a detachment of military recon [unit]. "Forty-fifths" were thrown to plug the hole of UKR breakthrough [that's type of the forces RU uses to plug the holes]
• The AFU used 5 directions
• UKR did everything beautifully conceived: an attack in 5 directions (2 main and 3 auxiliary). A lot of equipment is at Brid and Olhino. They tried to bypass the Brid, Belohirka, they succeeded. They gnawed out the neck of the bridgehead, walking 2 "petals" - bypassing the Brid and along the road to Kakhovka. But they were stopped by Airborne [troops], like in Olhino [confusing description but it seems UKR used two axis of attack as on my latest map. However, on my map the second push stopped at Kostromka while in reality it looks like it pushed toward the road. UKR most likely tried to cut the road in two places.]  
• Three pontoons, which were put by the AFU, are still standing [that's why I call it battle of Bridgeheads - it seems UKR established 2 more crossing - next to Andriivka bypassing RU defenses there and Davydiv Brid. So two Bridgeheads now]
•  At each site of the breakthrough [RU uses] the airborne forces - 76th (Pskovichi), Ivanovo regiment and etc. [RU is forced to use elite lighter forces in place of line infantry]
•  Having destroyed the enemy's attacks, [and enemy starts retreating] you can go further to Mikolaev on his "shoulders" ...But we have... no one. In this regard, the enemy is different, constantly introducing a reserve into battle. 

[UPDATE] Others started to claim that there are RU reserves.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Grigb

[LongLeftFlank]

Even the most generic looking terrain can be geolocated by a savvy analyst.

(Hopefully this video is stale dated)

 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Even the most generic looking terrain can be geolocated by a savvy analyst.

(Hopefully this video is stale dated)

 

It is fairly recent, but the cat is already out of the bag - it is UKR advance toward Arhkangelse village. UKR forces attacked the village yesterday (or maybe they attacked before yesterday and yesterday they made strong push) and RU tactically repositioned toward rear. UKR claim they liberated the village, but I am waiting for some confirmation. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Using the range provided by RA to sprinkle 105s around deeper in their backfield /without/ associated manoeuvre is a bit silly. Harassment and introduction is totally a thing, but effective h&i is not achieved by sprinkling.

This is what I think every time I see a Ukrainian field hit by dozens, if not hundreds, of Russian shells with absolutely no hint of there having been anything to hit anywhere in that genera vicinity.  You gotta think... was the 4 man Ukrainian AT team hiding 500m away in the woodline really harassed by all this bravado, or did Russia simply waste a lot of ammunition and put its guns one step closer to decommissioning?  Well, at least the Russian battery commander can report he completed his task.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Kharkiv is hit hard:

 

Typical Russian response.  "We're getting our asses kicked over here, so let's beat up some old ladies and children to feel good about ourselves".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Useful bits from RU frontline reporter 

• At this moment, our people are being hacked in the Olhino area, almost surrounded by [UKR] fire
• The result of the "offensive" of the APU on the 1st day is 6 km and 5 settlements. [He] have made progress in our weak spot, where there were "mobiks" from the DPR [looks like it is Bridgeheads initial penetration]
• [Funny claim] The enemy launched the "faggots" from the 3 brigades trained by the British. Well-prepared, motivated, personnel [It looks like UK trained units became RU boogeyman]
•  In Olhino he [UKR advance] was blocked by the 45th brigade of the SPN Airborne Forces with a detachment of military recon [unit]. "Forty-fifths" were thrown to plug the hole of UKR breakthrough [that's type of the forces RU uses to plug the holes]
• The AFU used 5 directions
• UKR did everything beautifully conceived: an attack in 5 directions (2 main and 3 auxiliary). A lot of equipment is at Brid and Olhino. They tried to bypass the Brid, Belohirka, they succeeded. They gnawed out the neck of the bridgehead, walking 2 "petals" - bypassing the Brid and along the road to Kakhovka. But they were stopped by Airborne [troops], like in Olhino [confusing description but it seems UKR used two axis of attack as on my latest map. However, on my map the second push stopped at Kostromka while in reality it looks like it pushed toward the road. UKR most likely tried to cut the road in two places.]  
• Three pontoons, which were put by the AFU, are still standing [that's why I call it battle of Bridgeheads - it seems UKR established 2 more crossing - next to Andriivka bypassing RU defenses there and Davydiv Brid. So two Bridgeheads now]
•  At each site of the breakthrough [RU uses] the airborne forces - 76th (Pskovichi), Ivanovo regiment and etc. [RU is forced to use elite lighter forces in place of line infantry]
•  Having destroyed the enemy's attacks, [and enemy starts retreating] you can go further to Mikolaev on his "shoulders" ...But we have... no one. In this regard, the enemy is different, constantly introducing a reserve into battle. 

[UPDATE] Others started to claim that there are RU reserves.

This is a fun read!  Thanks

Here's something that I've been counting on coming as a rude shock to the RU Nats... rates of advance. 

The Russian bloggers have been frustrated by how slow they have been on their side.  Bitterly so at times.  Whatever excuses/reasons they've come up with to explain it away, the fact remains that they have been forced to recognize their progress has been measured in METERS per day for most of the last 3 months with only slightly better news in a few specific areas.

Now they are looking at the map in Kherson and seeing Ukraine launch its first offensive and they are already chalking up advances in KILOMETERS.  They have to be asking themselves why are Ukrainian units able to do what their units can not?  We're already seeing excuses (British training).  They'll come up with even more creative things as the battles go on.

Same thing with settlement counts.  Russians fight for weeks to gain a tiny little village somewhere, and the Nats talk of it as if they just took Berlin.  In one day Ukraine has taken more Berlins than Russia has in weeks if not months.  Oh, and Ukraine really has taken these spots where as so often the Russians claim some gain that they didn't actually make.

This has got to be causing a world of hurt to their understanding of the world around them.  Especially because it seems they are coming to realize that Ukraine is only just getting started.

Even if this offensive bogs down, RU Nat's confidence is not going to recover.  This is Siverskyi Donets crossings mental anguish for them times 10 at a minimum.  If things go the way we hope they go, it will be times 1000.

It's not going to be fun for Russia's biggest military fan bois, but it is likely to be quite entertaining for us

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Nice accounting of probable Ukrainian partisan attacks right up to August 31.  The high profile ones have been noted here, but there were some we didn't mention explicitly:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/guerilla-warfare-ukraines-partisans-are-taking-the-war-to-russia/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another assessment of Russia's stocks of shells and vehicles.  This one predicts more along the lines of what we've discussed here... by the end of this year they will run into serious problems with replacements for at least certain types of munitions and vehicles.  This is what we concluded after picking apart the last more generic report that said end of 2023 Russia will effectively run out of stuff.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is what I think every time I see a Ukrainian field hit by dozens, if not hundreds, of Russian shells with absolutely no hint of there having been anything to hit anywhere in that genera vicinity.  You gotta think... was the 4 man Ukrainian AT team hiding 500m away in the woodline really harassed by all this bravado, or did Russia simply waste a lot of ammunition and put its guns one step closer to decommissioning?  Well, at least the Russian battery commander can report he completed his task.

Steve

Amazed nobody's posted any Bairnsfather yet in this thread....

 

My personal favourite....

 

[Battlefront.com]

Report from today (Sept 1) from Ukraine MoD stating what Russians have lost recently:

https://censor.net/en/news/3364378/in_southern_direction_afu_destroyed_more_than_200_occupiers_enemy_equipment_and_6_ammunition_depots

In the south this was noted:

Quote

According to OC "South", as a result of the firepower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy reduced its presence by 201 people, 12 T-72 tanks, and 18 units of armored vehicles.

"Solntsepek" heavy flamethrower system, "Buk-M3" anti-aircraft missile system, 5 "Msta-B" howitzers, " Akatsia" self-propelled howitzer, 2 self-propelled gun mounts, and 3 mobile mortars were successfully destroyed.

In addition, 6 enemy ammunition depots in the Berislavsk, Genichesk, and Kherson districts, as well as the command posts of the 331st Paratrooper and 56th Paratrooper Regiments of the enemy troops, were liquidated. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3364378

Steve

[chrisl]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Another assessment of Russia's stocks of shells and vehicles.  This one predicts more along the lines of what we've discussed here... by the end of this year they will run into serious problems with replacements for at least certain types of munitions and vehicles.  This is what we concluded after picking apart the last more generic report that said end of 2023 Russia will effectively run out of stuff.

Steve

Missing link?

And when does the Fall mud season start?  With the Russian GLOC stretched way out by their ammo dumps exploding for 100's of km and UA precision (and partisans) that can shut down rail lines, RU will be stuck trying to move tons of ammo just-in-time through hundreds of km of mud.  That may effectively silence their artillery within range of UA lines.  And given that ammo dumps on the Russian side of the border seem to be fair game, it could even silence the arty from the Donbas.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Missing link?

Oops!  Here is the summary of it:

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-face-ammunition-armored-vehicle-shortage-end-year-report-3608025

And the report itself:

https://theins.ru/en/politics/254573

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

And when does the Fall mud season start?  With the Russian GLOC stretched way out by their ammo dumps exploding for 100's of km and UA precision (and partisans) that can shut down rail lines, RU will be stuck trying to move tons of ammo just-in-time through hundreds of km of mud.  That may effectively silence their artillery within range of UA lines.  And given that ammo dumps on the Russian side of the border seem to be fair game, it could even silence the arty from the Donbas.

The previous report took mud season into account, this one does not make it clear either way.

This is just one analysis which relies on some tea leaves, but a quick skimming of it was favorable.  Too tired to do more than that right now!

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is an APPEARANCE that Putin's regime is better protected than 1917 or 1991.  We won't know until that theory has been put to the test.  It hasn't yet, but circumstances indicate it won't be long before it is.

Yep, we can see the signs of strain and the stability of Putin's rule is shaky but the thing about falling dictators is everything seems fine until you wake up one morning and it isn't.

Predicting Putin's fall is more a matter of seeing the precursors of problems and assessing the increased risks to his leadership rather than picking the day he's going to fall.

I like the thoughts that have been expressed in this discussion.

 

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

While there was discussion of history repeating as far as coups, which we don't know it will repeat, there is one history thing that is definitely repeating:  Dictator is told region is lost, must pull forces out before cut off.  Dictator lectures generals on the incredible value of the region and need for its resources or political meaning.  So instead of just losing the region, the dictator loses region and his forces, not understanding that his need to hold it has nothing to do w his ability to hold it.  I guess that's why we call him Putler.

I rather like Mark Twain 's observation that history doesn't repeat itself it rhymes. 

There sure seems to be alot of poetry being thrown down at the moment.

[Grigb]

Another thick plot - RU is fighting somebody at Enerhodar. Either partisans or they are fighting among themselves like at Battle of Pub. Or they are inventing reason to block Western inspectors from reaching the Station. 

 

[Grigb]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another assessment of Russia's stocks of shells and vehicles.  This one predicts more along the lines of what we've discussed here... by the end of this year they will run into serious problems with replacements for at least certain types of munitions and vehicles.  This is what we concluded after picking apart the last more generic report that said end of 2023 Russia will effectively run out of stuff.

Steve

And right on time Mashkovets post about RU arty state

Quote

For your information...

- The average maximum operational firing per tube of 122-mm or 152-mm (the most common calibers in Russian tube artillery) reaches an average of 2,000 to 3,000 rounds, depending on the type  of artillery system and type of ammunition. To date, from 85% to 87% of their arty is very close to the exhaustion of this norm.

- The barrels of tank guns have similar limits, from 240 shots (armor-piercing sub-caliber projectile), up to 480 shots (HE)... Only a quarter of the Russian tanks they have not exhausted this resource...

- Before the invasion, the Russian Federation had a stock of ammunition of the main large calibers of about 15 million pieces, even according to the most careful calculations and taking into account the production of 1.4-1.5 million pieces per year, the Russian army has ALREADY spent in Ukraine and other places (for example, in Syria) at least 7.5 million pieces of these ammunition (if you take daily indicators of 25,000 shots during a relative "lull", or 45 – 60 thousand shots during intense fighting).

By the way, it is quite possible that the statistical data on the presence of "pre-war" ammo reserves in Russia and its ability to produce them, to put it mildly, are somewhat exaggerated. At least, at the conclusion of the so-called Second Chechen Campaign (which is in no way comparable in scope  of warfare with the war in Ukraine) all the main groups of Russian troops operating on the territory of this republic were forced to sharply limit the daily norms of ammunition consumption.
This is not my claim, it is written by the Russians themselves in an Insider...

So when I see it again and again in the comments... another moan about the "limitless" reserves of Russians, which allegedly allow them to wage war in Ukraine indefinitely, I would like to wish such a groaning man to go and smash his forehead against the wall.

 

[Grigb]

So far, no news of significant changes:

• RU counter attacks seems to stabilize the situation so fighting now is around Sukhi Stavok - Kostromka - Bruskinske but not at Bruskinske itself or road
• At Vysokopillia there is vague report that UKR as slowly pushing at Arhkangelske and situation is slowly getting worse for RU but grain of salt is needed as usual
• Ru Nats are getting concerned now about situation in Kherson and loss of initiatives.

[Ts4EVER]

Certainly getting the feeling that the offensive has some tactical successes but might be grinding to a halt. Then again, hard to tell and basically a total arm chair take on the whole thing.

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Certainly getting the feeling that the offensive has some tactical successes but might be grinding to a halt. Then again, hard to tell and basically a total arm chair take on the whole thing.

But I think that's the thesis of 'fog eating snow' that's being discussed here (aside:  that's either 'snow that eats fog' or 'fog that eats snow', or maybe both, I dunno). Punctuated equilibria or sumfink.

.... Trying for that Big Buildup (Mass!) followed by that 1944 or 1991 'Big Push to the Green Fields Beyond' at this time in miltech only seems to bog down in a bloodbath of more-or-less accurate heavy artillery. Neither side has really made it work since Feb, or not at an acceptable price.

So it seems better now on the attack to eat the elephant one bite at a time:  avoid presenting dense targets by sending only enough forces into close contact to force the defender to reinforce (it's also possible some of them may crack and rout). Then whack those noobs while they're still on the move and not dug in.  Eat the snow (or the fog)!

....If you're HIMARs-rich, you also whack their entire LOC as far back as you can, railheads, airfields, HQs, etc. 

There are several variants on that theme, but that's my current dumbed down grasp of it.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

UKR forces attacked the village yesterday (or maybe they attacked before yesterday and yesterday they made strong push)

This video belonged to volunteer Chehen battalion, at the end of video cameraman said "28th of August". 

About other news, here is RUMINT from Russian TG channel, among usual statements "UKR offensive is exhausting, VDV and Rosgvardia are eliminating the enemy", most interesting this - "AFU are in Davydiv Brid settlement"

Also Russians TG and even MoD are sharing the news about UKR forces landed SOF group in 60 fighters in Energodar and they are trying to seize nucliar plant. Blue - as if landing site, large purple circle - nuclear plant territory, small inner circle - reactors. As if Russian helicopters and artillery now eliminatig landing group, but very likely this is "virtual war" to prevent inspectors access to the plant 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/29/dutch-commando-soldier-dies-after-shooting-outside-us-hotel

Godverdomme.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Another thick plot - RU is fighting somebody at Enerhodar. Either partisans or they are fighting among themselves like at Battle of Pub. Or they are inventing reason to block Western inspectors from reaching the Station. 

 

"Moscow accuses Ukraine of sending a team of "saboteurs" near the Zaporizhia power plant
While Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), announces his intention to go and inspect the Zaporizh plant, Moscow accuses the Ukrainian army of having led a landing of "saboteurs" near the central. “Around 6 a.m. [5 a.m. in Paris], two groups of Ukrainian army saboteurs, up to sixty people, landed aboard seven boats (…) 3 kilometers northeast of the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhia", announced the Russian Ministry of Defense in a press release, adding that it had taken "measures to annihilate the enemy".

On Telegram, the head of the military-civilian administration of Enerhodar (pro-Russian), quoted by the Russian official agency Interfax, published the images of a correspondent of the Russian newspaper Izvestia showing what is supposed to be the bombardment of Enerhodar by the Ukrainian army."

Warning propaganda (links) :
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/3873
https://ria.ru/20220901/vsu-1813618159.html