How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

While there was discussion of history repeating as far as coups, which we don't know it will repeat, there is one history thing that is definitely repeating:  Dictator is told region is lost, must pull forces out before cut off.  Dictator lectures generals on the incredible value of the region and need for its resources or political meaning.  So instead of just losing the region, the dictator loses region and his forces, not understanding that his need to hold it has nothing to do w his ability to hold it.  I guess that's why we call him Putler.

[pavel.k]

10 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The pro russian sources are talking about a UA waterloo with half the polish m1 fleet gone (60 tanks ko) and around 1. 200 Kia. There are quite a few videos to reinforce their claims and a rather silence from pro UKR accounts that makes this all more suspicious. Both sides sources are far from objective (understandable) but RU are lying a little more so I don't know what to believe. 

Grigb's theorem is: divide russian numbers by 10. So it means 6 tanks ko and 120 kia

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The pro russian sources are talking about a UA waterloo with half the polish m1 fleet gone (60 tanks ko) and around 1. 200 Kia. There are quite a few videos to reinforce their claims and a rather silence from pro UKR accounts that makes this all more suspicious. Both sides sources are far from objective (understandable) but RU are lying a little more so I don't know what to believe. 

If they have 60 tanks added by Oryx, I would believe it, otherwise those sources are worth jack ****. How many times has the Ukrainian Air Force been wiped from the skies? That said, Oryx has confirmed UKR losses but pro-RU sources are quite worthless in terms of losses.

Since the clampdown by the government, most of what I follow has shut up so I'm not surprised at the silence from UKR side.

Personally for me, a reminder that Ukraine was losing at least 200 soldiers a day during Russia's artillery dominant phase, so let's not forget war takes its toll on both sides.

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The pro russian sources are talking about a UA waterloo with half the polish m1 fleet gone (60 tanks ko) and around 1. 200 Kia. There are quite a few videos to reinforce their claims and a rather silence from pro UKR accounts that makes this all more suspicious. Both sides sources are far from objective (understandable) but RU are lying a little more so I don't know what to believe. 

Do not believe RU.

[Harmon Rabb]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Do not believe RU.

After 6 months of this I believe RU sources about as much as I believed this guy in 2003. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

UKR seems to be unable to clear RU out of Olyne and Vysokopilla at the moment but Ru seems to be unable to counter-attack UKR as well.

Our General Staff reported yesterday about Russian attacks on Potiomkyne, so they try to attack too. 

 From Vysokopillia area we have today this post of Russian trooper:

 

Translation:

Vesokopillia direction. Authentically

Attempt of enemy's breakthtrough is going on.

Our company of mountain battalion has withdrew, because of it was semi-encircled. Company commaner has been called fire on himself, we received an order to withdrew remains of company. For holding positions and holes closing reserves are pulled up. The fighting is going on along all frontline. The enemy involved up to three brigades (14, 56, 86). Bayraktar is used.

My remark. He said about mountain battalion - likely this is 34th cossack motor-rifle brigade (mountain) of 49th CAA (it has MTLB-VMK/ MTLB-6MB as combat transport)

About involved UKR brigades - he didn't match. Also there is no 86th briagde.

[Haiduk]

Video from Kherson front

UKR troops are prepared to attack. The tank is trying execute "hull down" command %) 

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

 

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

The pro russian sources are talking about a UA waterloo with half the polish m1 fleet gone (60 tanks ko) and around 1. 200 Kia. There are quite a few videos to reinforce their claims and a rather silence from pro UKR accounts that makes this all more suspicious. Both sides sources are far from objective (understandable) but RU are lying a little more so I don't know what to believe. 

Good rule of a thumb is to never believe Russian claims. Just a friendly reminder. Yesterday they already determined today's Ukrianian casualties, so probably they simply have some intern with excell doing the work. Maybe they have a quota for the rest of the week or something. Or somebody spill the coffee on the charts. Who knows.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our General Staff reported yesterday about Russian attacks on Potiomkyne, so they try to attack too. 

Yes, but it was yesterday. What caught my eye today is lack of their attacks (obviously I could be mistaken)

 

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 From Vysokopillia area we have today this post of Russian trooper:

 

Translation:

Vesokopillia direction. Authentically

Attempt of enemy's breakthtrough is going on.

Our company of mountain battalion has withdrew, because of it was semi-encircled. Company commaner has been called fire on himself, we received an order to withdrew remains of company. For holding positions and holes closing reserves are pulled up. The fighting is going on along all frontline. The enemy involved up to three brigades (14, 56, 86). Bayraktar is used.

My remark. He said about mountain battalion - likely this is 34th cossack motor-rifle brigade (mountain) of 49th CAA (it has MTLB-VMK/ MTLB-6MB as combat transport)

About involved UKR brigades - he didn't match. Also there is no 86th brigade.

Yep, but I would say it is retreat from Arhkangelske village nearby.

 

[Haiduk]

UKR strikes Russian rears - hitting coming reserves

Reportedly Russians tried to move trucks convoy through railroad bridge, but also were hit

Locals are reporting about several laud explosions in Melitopol area. 

[Haiduk]

FIRMS markings shifted for today deeper on south on Vysokopillia direction

 

[Grigb]

There is a good Girkin post that explains how it work in RU army. But Girkin is not the author of original story. It is RU military folklore. I heard it when... you know. I believe it originates from W2. 

Quote

The recipe for the correct report to the command (along the chain), which guarantees successful promotion and maintaining high morale in the deep rear:

Given: in the area of the village of Small Farts, the "Cannibal" battalion having 18 still alive fighters climbed out of the trenches and lied down under enemy fire.
The Battalion Commander gets a call from the Regiment Commander:
- Report the results of the attack!
Battalion Commander (pressing himself into the depth of the trench and hastily pulling on the helmet dropped by a close hit):
- Our [troops] departed! Moving forward to the enemy's positions! It was possible to suppress 2 [enemy] firing points with mortars.
Regiment commander - Brigade Commander:
- The Cannibal battalion broke into the first line of trenches! The enemy is retreating!
Brigade Commander - Division Commander:
- We are approaching the second line of defense! The enemy's firing points have been destroyed. The trophies have been taken!
Division Commander - Corps Commander:
- We are breaking the third line of defense on the outskirts of the village! On the battlefield... uh... 50 enemy corpses.
Corps Commander - Army Commander:
- We are fighting street battles.... (Looks at the Yandex map) in the area of the 2nd village shop! We took a barber shop and an ice cream kiosk! A hundred enemy corpses!
Press secretary of one of the Smart Militia [Reference to People Militia of L-DPR] :
- According to available data, the 5009th brigade of Ukrainian nationalists abandons Small Farts, throwing away military equipment!
The Main Chatterbox-on-TV:
- Today, for the fourth day in a row, our troops liberated the urban-type settlement of Small Farts and will soon approach Kiev! Destroyed, ... uh... up to 500 nationalists.

10 to 12 survivors of the battalion are retreating to their starting positions, pulling out their wounded.

So, the rule of thumb is to ignore any RU claim regarding losses. No photo/video - never happened. 

[womble]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

So, the rule of thumb is to ignore any RU claim regarding losses. No photo/video - never happened. 

And if there is visual evidence, scrutinise it for how many times it's been used before...

 

[Haiduk]

Here is first signs of artillery defficite in Russia

Murz writes post about 3rd Corps and artillery. No sense to translate all, but more important:

- DPR and LPR units encountered with lack of 122 mm ammunition (main caliber of LDPR brigades) and while they were crossing on 152 mm caliber of D-20 howtzers, this pause was one cases of humble results of LDPR troops at the end of spring and beginning of summer

- Russian MoD decided to take all D-20 in good conditions only for own purpose, so even D-20 recently given to LDPR will be taken back and substituted on other howitzers and "you can see with WHAT will be make war LDPR gunners, most experienced in Russian army".

Our commentators think this can be old WWII ML-20 howitzers, having identical ballistic with own successor D-20

Edited August 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely.  I can't prove there is a coup about to happen any more than Beleg85 can prove it is going to happen.  Either of us could be correct, neither of us, or both depending on how things play out.  My primary disagreement with his arguments is that he's all but ruled it out based on what I see are arguments that are less relevant each day the war goes on. 

Now that is unfair ...I literally underline at the every sentence you may be right, and rule out nothing. Nats may try to do something for real. And dynamics may change. Where we differ indeed is their real influence, boundary conditions, and  probablity of action, possible gravity, timing, chances of success etc. I still for example tend to treat Girkin as serious state asset with some hidden goal rather than rogue nationalist who "speaks the truth" (he often does ofc, but for reasons that are very murky and unknown to us). He is still alive somehow.

Also before judging all Russian security institutions as ultimetelly crappy we need to answer many uneasy questions, for example why they were so successfull in last decade by sowing divisions, planting agents and effectivelly supporting entire political blocks in Europe and US, despite having vastly less resources. And one last thing to remember- unlike militaries, we judge secret service, security and intelligence almost exclusively by their failures rather than successes. Thus Mossad, CIA and GRU/KGB often on the surface look like incompetent jerks with giant egos. But this is not ture. Even if they are mainly smoke and mirrors, remember that setting beliveable cabinet of smoke and mirrors is an art of itself, unlikely to succeeed without some level of competence.

I am also personally much more cautious with using certain methods of deduction, like historical or institutional analogies. Perhaps simply classical historians tend to be  much more methodology-savvy ( in  a sense of acknowledging limits of our understanding ) than those engaging with modern history, because nature of our work and source material forces us to think that way. We generally are also more prone to use auxiliary sciences like anthropology, religious studies and seveal others.

But beside that, I generally agree with Steve.

 

On lighter note, excellent and absolutelly chilling communicate from Soloviov:

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

Thanks for the reporting!

My take on this is things are going pretty well for Ukraine already.  In many deliberate attacks against prepared defenders there attacker suffers heavy losses compared to the defender for the first couple of days.  This is logical and might be what we're seeing, however I have a feeling that (and it is just a feeling) that losses are more-or-less even, perhaps a little favorable for the Ukrainian side.  This feeling is mostly based on relative losses in previous battles (Russians generally losing more than one would typically expect).

So far the offensive is unfolding pretty much as expected.  The primary focus is on the middle (bridgehead) with the goal of cutting Russia's defenses in two.  Pressure is being exerted on the north to tie up reserves and to deplete their limited supplies (more on this in a second).  Nothing big is going on in the south yet, from what I can tell, but I expect Ukraine is at least pressure to keep Russia from redeploying.

New forces have been noted in the area.  I saw one report of 128th Brigade being involved near the bridgehead (probably a battalion).

Some of Russia's best units are in the northern portion of Kherson.  This is great for Ukraine because Russia's ability to resupply this area is the most difficult for the entire Kherson front.  Simple math about the distance and the fact that there's only one significant road makes this a pretty easy thing to see.  As the fighting goes on it is probable that Russia's forces there will suffer increasing and compounding deficits in resupply each day that passes.  There's only so many days they can hold out before becoming combat ineffective.

My predictions are that tomorrow we'll see more breakthroughs around the bridgehead by Ukraine, we'll see significant (though not as bold) attacks in the north, and the south will likely stay relatively quiet.  Russian counter attacks will be difficult to counter for another day or two, then they will become less effective and more sporadic.  If Ukraine has the sorts of forces we think they have, constriction of the northern portion should be possible.  Especially if Russia's forces there decide to fight in place instead of withdrawing.

About withdrawal of Russian forces... because the forces in the north are higher quality, they likely won't withdraw unless Ukraine is overtly threatening to cut off road T-04-03.  If Ukraine is able to do that it will likely mean that Russia's reserves have been committed and are still inadequate, leaving the northern forces not much choice but either withdraw or get snuffed out.  My thinking is they will try to breakthrough.

This battle likely won't be over in a week, but I think within a week we'll see clear signs of some sort of conclusion.  Hopefully it will be Ukraine on top, but it could be that the offensive stalls out and Ukraine conservatism halts the operation.

Steve

 

[FancyCat]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

- DPR and LPR units encountered with lack of 122 mm ammunition (main caliber of LDPR brigades) and while they were crossing on 152 mm caliber of D-20 howtzers, this pause was one cases of humble results of LDPR troops at the end of spring and beginning of summer

- Russian MoD decided to take all D-20 in good conditions only for own purpose, so even D-20 recently given to LDPR will be taken back and substituted on other howitzers and "you can see with WHAT will be make war LDPR gunners, most experienced in Russian army". Our commentators think this can be old WWII ML-20 howitzers, having identical ballistic with own successor D-20

Interesting that the puppet republics are getting screwed over equipment wise. While obviously the puppet republics are controlled by Russia wholly, this to me indicates prioritizing Russia over the republics, and so despite their intents on "annexing the Donbas", the reality is Russia and their forces are more important than the republics. So while the republics are drained of manpower intensively, and if rumors are accurate, are being used in the first line of defenses to soak up the UKR fire, they aren't being equipped as equally as the Russian forces. 

Now, on one hand, many DPR and LPR units seem to break easier, so I can see Russia opting to prioritize their better units over the newly raised formations. These are artillery units, so I assume aren't being raised and hit as badly as frontline units tho. Also, DPR and LPR units have been protesting being used outside of the republics borders, but still, these are artillery units, one will assume their protests are less likely. 

If any Russian forces withdraw in the future from some location in Ukraine, its likely the DPR and LPR units will fight harder and without Russian forces beside them since its their own soil, (once say UKR pushes into the claimed DPR and LPR borders) If Russia is taking already allocated D-20 artillery from the DPR and LPR units, indicates a disregard for their defense in the future. 

If Russia wants to move to a stalemated front, part of it i assume is a deescalating move like leaving the puppet republics of regular Russian forces with only puppet republics forces, having them lose control of their artillery for opposing Ukraine, is not a great sign for faith or willingness for them to hold out without Russian forces alongside them. 

(besides, Russia probably wants to reinforce the newly conquered territories anyhow)

[Cederic]

I'm disappointed by this.

 

Amusing as it is, OFFER THEM SURRENDER!

There's an entire division knowing they're cut off from supplies, cut off from retreat. Give them another option! Don't make them feel they have to fight for raw survival.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Now that is unfair ...I literally underline at the every sentence you may be right, and rule out nothing. Nats may try to do something for real. And dynamics may change. Where we differ indeed is their real influence, boundary conditions, and  probablity of action, possible gravity, timing, chances of success etc. I still for example tend to treat Girkin as serious state asset with some hidden goal rather than rogue nationalist who "speaks the truth" (he often does ofc, but for reasons that are very murky and unknown to us). He is still alive somehow.

Also before judging all Russian security institutions as ultimetelly crappy we need to answer many uneasy questions, for example why they were so successfull in last decade by sowing divisions, planting agents and effectivelly supporting entire political blocks in Europe and US, despite having vastly less resources. And one last thing to remember- unlike militaries, we judge secret service, security and intelligence almost exclusively by their failures rather than successes. Thus Mossad, CIA and GRU/KGB often on the surface look like incompetent jerks with giant egos. But this is not ture. Even if they are mainly smoke and mirrors, remember that setting beliveable cabinet of smoke and mirrors is an art of itself, unlikely to succeeed without some level of competence.

I am also personally much more cautious with using certain methods of deduction, like historical or institutional analogies. Perhaps simply classical historians tend to be  much more methodology-savvy ( in  a sense of acknowledging limits of our understanding ) than those engaging with modern history, because nature of our work and source material forces us to think that way. We generally are also more prone to use auxiliary sciences like anthropology, religious studies and seveal others.

But beside that, I generally agree with Steve.

I respect how deep into the background and possibilities you gents are getting re a coup, but I have some reservations based on things we definitely know.

For example:  https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/. The bare fact is that this war is not yet unpopular in Russia and for some time at least, the more significant effects are going to be hidden from the core areas of the state.  Until that happens what do the Russian nationalists have to offer? General mobilization that the people don't want and who they can't arm anyway? Continuing the war...which is already going to continue?

If the war goes south and public opinion swings against it in the heartlands of Moscow, Smolensk and Ryazan the political position of the reanimated homo sovieticii are in a situation that's worse. "Let's fight this war better" has the ring of Kerenksy much more than it does Comrade Lenin. There is nobody in the elites in Russia who isn't aware of this history. They won't move unless the effort takes them out of the war.

Edited August 31, 2022 by billbindc

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

About withdrawal of Russian forces... because the forces in the north are higher quality

I would be say most hardcore Russian units are in the center - 7th air-assualt division, elements of 76th air-assault division, 126th coastal defense. Also at least two BTGs of 35th CAA and 5th CAA, moved from left bank (64th MRB and 127th MRD). MRB. Northern group is 11th air-assault, 34th MRB. This is what I could recall at the moment.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

UKR is deploying fresh reserves at front line at least at Soledar as well.

Quote

Breakthrough to Kherson. The eyes of all analysts are now directed there. We've been wandering for 2 days around Soledar. Yes, the place is not hyped, but it is important for understanding the overall picture at the front.

The AFU recently made a rotation of personnel. Motivated fighters came to the positions. If earlier, we talked about delaying groups consisting of poorly trained reservists. Now they have been replaced by a new type, equipped with NATO weapons. The new shift switched to aggressive defense tactics. Small groups are not afraid to come close to our positions and try to take individual [defensive] positions in a rush.

We walked around familiar places. [We] used to go there during the day, now [we] move exclusively at night. AFU are increasingly using UAVs of the "wing" type. It is more difficult to shoot them down, and they fly further and longer than the Mavics.

The number of attacks on our positions has increased markedly. The AFU has overcome shell famine in this sector of the front, and they can hit a point target from 155mm guns. In addition, I will note the counter-battery fire. The new shift brought radars with them, which seriously spoils the nerves of our gunners.

In a word, the approach of the Ukrainian fresh forces is felt on the entire front line. Battered units are taken to the rear. There they will be re-equipped, switched to NATO equipment and prepared for new attacks. It is important not to oversleep this moment.

 

[sburke]

any idea how Russian caseevac is doing?  We know it is difficult for them to keep resupplied, I would expect the other direction has the same issues.  Russian casualties are likely not getting reliable access to rear medical services.  that is gonna suck on their morale.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

any idea how Russian caseevac is doing?  We know it is difficult for them to keep resupplied, I would expect the other direction has the same issues.  Russian casualties are likely not getting reliable access to rear medical services.  that is gonna suck on their morale.

It would be if they ever had experience of good medical services. But they don't so it is not a serious factor.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now that is unfair ...I literally underline at the every sentence you may be right, and rule out nothing. Nats may try to do something for real. And dynamics may change.

Ack!  Sorry, what I said came out wrong.  Clumsy English on my part.  I'll clarify...

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Where we differ indeed is their real influence, boundary conditions, and  probablity of action, possible gravity, timing, chances of success etc. I still for example tend to treat Girkin as serious state asset with some hidden goal rather than rogue nationalist who "speaks the truth" (he often does ofc, but for reasons that are very murky and unknown to us). He is still alive somehow.

What I was trying to say before is that you seem to think the "boundary conditions" haven't dramatically changed in the last couple of months from where they were before.  Specifically that the equations the RU Nats are using to calculate risk to reward are largely unchanged.  I would grant you this even 2-3 months ago, but not today.  As I keep emphasizing, the RU Nats are fanatics and believe their entire world is at risk of being destroyed.  Only full mobilization and martial law can solve this, but Putin won't do it.  Ergo, Russia is going to be destroyed if Putin remains in power.  This is new.

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also before judging all Russian security institutions as ultimetelly crappy we need to answer many uneasy questions, for example why they were so successfull in last decade by sowing divisions, planting agents and effectivelly supporting entire political blocks in Europe and US, despite having vastly less resources.

Oh, I think fundamentally Putin's security services are competent.  However, context is important.  Circumstances have changed rather dramatically since the war started.  Much of what Russia achieved over the past 20 years disappeared in a couple of months.  Why?  Because the West's previous mentality that fed into the cost:benefit calculations changed dramatically.  The old system of threats and rewards no longer works like it used to.  We should expect the same thing is going on within Russia as well.

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am also personally much more cautious with using certain methods of deduction, like historical or institutional analogies. Perhaps simply classical historians tend to be  much more methodology-savvy ( in  a sense of acknowledging limits of our understanding ) than those engaging with modern history, because nature of our work and source material forces us to think that way. We generally are also more prone to use auxiliary sciences like anthropology, religious studies and seveal others.

I focus on Human behavior more than anything.  We like to think of ourselves as having complete "free will" in that our individual actions are completely our own.  History shows that this is not really the case.  Groups of Humans tend to act similarly to similar stimuli.  That is what I spend my time looking at, not so much the historical precedence.  For example, I see many similarities between Hitler's Beer Haul Putsch as I do the January 6th storming of the US Capitol.  I do not think the two historical events are comparable in any meaningful way, but the reasons that motivated both groups, the conditions that got them energized, and the specific spark that led to violence are very similar.

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But beside that, I generally agree with Steve.

Yup, I don't think we disagree much.

Steve