How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

UKR is deploying fresh reserves at front line at least at Soledar as well.

 

Deeply interesting, if Ukraine can afford to cycle units in with NATO gear and training, and utilize artillery in the Donbas, with the ongoing in Kherson, that speaks greatly for UKR logistics and reserves and NATO ramp up of supplies and training. Meanwhile, Russia has to take D-20 artillery from the puppet republics. 

I am very, very pleased, that Ukraine can rotate out units, and potentially send them to the EU for training and re-equipment. My biggest worry has always been Ukraine being unable to properly cycle out units, rearm them, against constant Russian attacks. 

Also, I'm very pleased to see NATO doing training of personnel for the frontline, and not just simply artillery crew or other specialized units. 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR crew limbers M777. 1 minute 16 seconds according to video, but obviously some small initial part was skipped, so , I think real time is about 1 minute 30 seconds 

 

You get better at it when you do it five or ten times a day. We will know it is all over the when they can stay longer and pack less hurriedly. It will be the gold standard proof that they have won the counter battery fight.

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by dan/california
doubled up part of a sentence

[FancyCat]

Part of a thread on treatment of Russian officers, particularly junior ones. Interestingly, this sheds light on why officers abuse their enlisted personnel, they themselves are abused by those above them, one huge abusive structure. 

I link this portion for the relation with the professionalization of the Russian military via making it more composed of contract soldiers, which many Western analysts lauded and warned about before the invasion in reference to the poor state of the Russian military in the 90s. Seemingly, a lot of it was paperovered. 

Much more, including how personnel with specialized skills are placed in improper units, with jobs not suited for their skill sets, bad living conditions, corruption causes a cascade of corruption, as every level takes their cut from the allocation of money, every level has to make up for it with their corruption downward focused.

Now, obviously no military is immune to issues, the NYT just broke a story about how the Navy Seals BUD/S training and certification program is broken, abusive, and corrupted, and housing issues abound in the U.S military, but the very poor food served to in the thread, cadets at a Airborne school, infested with tapeworms, I think we can safely say the U.S military is not that deficient. Ditto for medical care, cleaning standards. 

Still confused how analysts who I would assume have Russian language skills skipped this stuff pre-invasion. 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

For example:  https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/. The bare fact is that this war is not yet unpopular in Russia and for some time at least, the more significant effects are going to be hidden from the core areas of the state.  Until that happens what do the Russian nationalists have to offer? General mobilization that the people don't want and who they can't arm anyway? Continuing the war...which is already going to continue?

This is something I find very humorous.  The regime has convinced the population that the war is going well and Poland is next on the menu.  The ability for the regime to peddle such nonsense is in large part due to the RU Nats vocal support for Putin's clampdown on freedoms pushed upon them by Westerners.  Now, all of a sudden, the RU Nats think Putin's ability to control messaging is a bad thing because it's leading people to think the war is going really well instead of getting people to understand it isn't and that full mobilization is their patriotic duty.  Haha

The RU Nats seem to think that if the population only knew the truth and that Russia's existence is under threat, then mobilization would be supported by enough to make a difference.  Martial law, which is also mentioned by Girkin and others, takes care of those who are more reluctant to fight and die for the Fatherland.  However, for that to happen the leadership (e.g. Putin) has to be convinced to enact it and sell it to the people.  Putin is unwilling to do it.  And that means...

The RU Nats find themselves in quite the dilemma.  If the only path to victory is full mobilization, but Putin refuses to do it, then either the RU Nats have to act against Putin or they have to resign themselves to watching Russia be humiliated and defeated forever.  This is a position they have been avoiding for years, certainly since the war's reversals were undeniable, but that is where they are at right now.

I personally don't think their coup will work, but then again I want Russia to fail so I'm not motivated like a RU Nat is

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If the war goes south and public opinion swings against it in the heartlands of Moscow, Smolensk and Ryazan the political position of the reanimated homo sovieticii are in a situation that's worse. "Let's fight this are better" has the ring of Kerenksy much more than it does Comrade Lenin. There is nobody in the elites in Russia who isn't aware of this history. They won't move unless the effort takes them out of the war.

I dunno.  By that logic the August Coup of 1991 wouldn't have happened.  Especially because there was no war at the time.  Yet the coup happened and for many of the same reasons I think the RU Nats are likely to make a move.

That being said, I agree that the RU Nats are likely reluctant to act any time soon.  Perhaps even after Kherson is over they will still hesitate.  But following their own logic they can't wait much longer than that if they really want what they say the want.  Which is to be successful in this present war against Ukraine.  Logically that means they need to act BEFORE total military collapse, not after.  Otherwise they will have to restart the war from Russian territory, not Ukrainian, with a non-existent army. 

Whether the RU Nats act according to their own belief system or not... nobody can know.  I'm simply saying, their beliefs require them to either act soon or accept Russia as a forever defeated nation.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Not to be snarky, but if a Kherson falls in Ukraine and no one in Russia hears it, does it make a sound?

I've been wondering for a while whether the majority of Russians will even know if Kherson falls?  What if it's an epic disaster w ~10,000+ prisoners and giant haul of war booty?  How much will they actually know?  Can Putin sell it as part of the plan, like the Kyiv disaster? 

Given the astonishing amount of complete and utterly delusional politically-based beliefs in an open society like the US, how much worse is that in Russia and what does that mean for turning or not turning the public against Putin?

Edited August 31, 2022 by danfrodo
typo

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Not to be snarky, but if a Kherson falls in Ukraine and no one in Russia hears it, does it make a sound?

I've been wondering for a while whether the majority of Russians will even know if Kherson falls?  What if it's an epic disaster w ~10,000+ prisoners and giant haul of war booty?  How much will they actually know?  Can Putin sell it as part of the plan, like the Kyiv disaster? 

Given the astonishing amount of complete and utterly delusional politically-based beliefs in an open society like the US, how much worse is that in Russia and what does that mean for turning or not turning the public against Putin?

Well Russia is no where as locked down as say North Korea. If Russia loses Kherson, plenty of people will say so, internet wise at least. 

There is no way Putin can sell Kherson loss as planned, as Russia's only conquest of a oblast capital since the start of the invasion, the plans for annexation make it one reason why Putin has refused to withdraw units from it.  

[Maquisard manqué]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

I'm disappointed by this.

 

Amusing as it is, OFFER THEM SURRENDER!

There's an entire division knowing they're cut off from supplies, cut off from retreat. Give them another option! Don't make them feel they have to fight for raw survival.

I agree with the sentiment but It’s surely for internal and NATO consumption rather than Russian troops’.

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Well Russia is no where as locked down as say North Korea. If Russia loses Kherson, plenty of people will say so, internet wise at least. 

There is no way Putin can sell Kherson loss as planned, as Russia's only conquest of a oblast capital since the start of the invasion, the plans for annexation make it one reason why Putin has refused to withdraw units from it.  

I'm sure getting a few thousand calls to their relatives in Russia will help get the word out.  UA seems to have been pretty good at that so far - letting folks contact their families.  Nice psyop move.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I dunno.  By that logic the August Coup of 1991 wouldn't have happened.  Especially because there was no war at the time.  Yet the coup happened and for many of the same reasons I think the RU Nats are likely to make a move.

It was Cold, certainly, but in terms of how it affected Russians on a daily basis it was certainly a war.

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

You get better at it when you do it five or ten times a day.

That vid was a thing of beauty - the soldiers looked like a NASCAR pit stop crew.

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Still confused how analysts who I would assume have Russian language skills skipped this stuff pre-invasion. 

Based on readings here and elsewhere, I think the answer is: analysts did macro-quantitative analysis, i.e., counting MBTs and artillery shells.  Too lazy / complacent / unwilling to go against the grain and lose their grants / audiences by dipping into macro- and micro-qualitative analysis, which requires judgement (risking reputations) instead of just counting things.  

Group-think is difficult to dislodge, and the path of least resistance is to go along with the group.

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The regime has convinced the population that the war is going well

So they have, and this brings to mind the inflection point in US support for the US-Vietnam war effort, where the NVA was supposedly beaten until the Tet offensive, something of a military disaster for the NVA, happened anyway.  So the US public revolted and politicians had to respond, although not instantly.

Same theatre, Dien Bien Phu had a similar effect on the French.

Early on I understood that 60-70% of the Russian populace got all their news from television ,which is easily controlled.  I expect that this percentage has dropped, and if the Kherson pocket is successful for the UA the Russian government will not be able to adequately suppress the reality, which is completely counter to the current narrative.

Coup time?  It's soap box, ballot box, bullet box - but the soap box is dangerous and Putin has ensured that "ballot box" doesn't work, so maybe Russians will skip a step.

Someone on this thread recently said that history happens only once.  I disagree, and so does Santayana.  The wheel keeps turning.

 

[chuckdyke]

 

25 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

I agree with the sentiment but It’s surely for internal and NATO consumption rather than Russian troops’.

Sorry I see you beat me to it.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I was trying to say before is that you seem to think the "boundary conditions" haven't dramatically changed in the last couple of months from where they were before.  Specifically that the equations the RU Nats are using to calculate risk to reward are largely unchanged.  I would grant you this even 2-3 months ago, but not today.  As I keep emphasizing, the RU Nats are fanatics and believe their entire world is at risk of being destroyed.  Only full mobilization and martial law can solve this, but Putin won't do it.  Ergo, Russia is going to be destroyed if Putin remains in power.  This is new.

Ok, then I'll explain myself again- I agree this war creates this kind of tension that was not there barely 6 months ago within those circles, hard to dispute that. What I have my doubts are how influential, determined, coherent and effective they can be. Several buckets of ice water on their heads "Motorolla-elevator" style may be enough to calm them down, just as it was during "spring cleaning" of first wave of Donbas veterans.

Even if they are indeed so dangerous, and Putin do face new (albeit fringe) political power in his country, it is still not such a big deal for regime. It holds all the power keys and resources the state apparatus have, and can take on them in myriad proactive ways, just as it faced previous political opponents from left and centre. It probably already is. Creating staged resistance to lure them in (Girkin anyone...?), wide human and cyber surveillance like in Liberals case (already almost given), intimidation, selective assassinations, giving up some crappy carrots like irrelevant political positions (narodno-bolsheviks set nice precedent here), further planting agents and traitors, and if things somehow really go south- hard Soviet-style repressions we did not see yet. I would say that till some of the really big fishes inside the walls (not medium ones) give them lock, Kremlin' position as ultimate powerhouse is relatively safe. But even if this unlikely scenario realises, Putin can still deliver a lot of proactive and passive measures. He still holds authority, half-tsarist charisma as effect of 20 years of conditioning - in Russian system knowledge who the boss is  is crucial. @billbindc is right here- Russian population is passive-supportive of war, but most importantly want stabilization to last. Putn give them that, at least for now, while fanatics absolutelly do not. Conversly, loose of legitimacy as cosequence of this war may be much more dangerous for regime than several crazies running around- here we will probably agree. But that is for possible future.

Nats may need special handling slightly different than those applied against liberals or oligarchs in order to turn them into Putin's useful tools, but "riding the tiger" is not something he would refrain from. Unlike liberals, they have some uses till the war last (ofc. it can also be waged without them, but why throw away useful blade even if handle holds slightly uncomfortable?). Also note that most criticism is still directed NOT personally against V.V.Putin, but advisors and particluar military leaders or general "government".

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I personally don't think their coup will work, but then again I want Russia to fail so I'm not motivated like a RU Nat is

Yup, me either . But we should Keep it Real, like great western philosopher Ali G. once said.

 

Maybe let's better keep this discussion for later, as now we have a lot of movement on military front and I have no time to even check beautiful new maps here.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Had to post it, the use of hysterical is quite pleasing to me. Much more worrisome tweet for civilians in the newly occupied regions, a defector politician thinks that winter will be much harsher on them than those still controlled by Ukraine and thinks the resulting refugee overflow into the existing puppet republics will be overwhelming.

Notably, with Ukraine ceasing payments to those in occupied areas, Russian payments disappearing into thin air, Russian bureaucracy needing their cut, the economy being war mobilized, its not looking great for civilians. 

Hopefully, maybe civilians might be able to head west and get to Ukraine controlled regions before winter.  

 

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by FancyCat
updated tweet to reflect update to original tweet.

[dan/california]

Girkin is NOT stupid, he NOT a coward, and he is effectively bat bleep crazy. I say "effectively crazy" because while he is quite sane in the clinical sense, his belief system is so detached from reality he could do something that makes no sense to the rest of us. He quite capable of turning a "fake" organization into a real one, and using it to launch a coup. Lenin was an irritating gadfly with a lot more grudges, and enemies, than he had friends until about ten minutes before he was the most dangerous man in the world. Then he acted on all those grudges, rather harshly. Ghirkin seems more similar by the day. Hopefully Ghirkin's path has the ending everyone always thought Lenin's would, involving two bullets and an anonymous ditch, as opposed to a blood drenched mausoleum that stands to this day.

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ghirkin seems more similar by the day. Hopefully Ghirkin's path has the ending everyone always thought Lenin's would, involving two bullets and an anonymous ditch, as opposed to a blood drenched mausoleum that stands to this day.

Oh, Lenin was profoundly religious figure that no current political player/influencer is, even including Putin himself. No strange they turned him into a mummy and worshiped like some god damn pharaon.

In strange perverted way only modernized XX century could deliver, he was a version of core Russian phenomenon:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foolishness_for_Christ#Eastern_Christianity

Edited September 1, 2022 by Beleg85

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

The downside is that HERA rounds are generally a lot less precise. Part of that is simply down to range (1mil at 10km is 10m, while at 20km it's 20m, based on equivalent triangles), but the RA bit of HERA tends to ... not be a precision instrument.

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, JonS said:

The downside is that HERA rounds are generally a lot less precise. Part of that is simply down to range (1mil at 10km is 10m, while at 20km it's 20m, based on equivalent triangles), but the RA bit of HERA tends to ... not be a precision instrument.

Sometimes there is something to be said for sprinkling the whole grid square, be it however so thinly. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by dan/california

[JonS]

Sure, but bear in mind we've spent approximately 1245 pages here telling ourselves how great precision is, and how the Russians are Gomer Pyles for their spray and pray approach.

Edit: also, sprinkling a 105mm battery - or even regiment - across an entire grid square would be very thin indeed.

Edited September 1, 2022 by JonS

[fireship4]

Quote

...Ivanov described "holy fool" as a term for a person who "feigns insanity, pretends to be foolish, or who provokes shock or outrage by his deliberate unruliness."...

...and occasionally being disruptive and challenging to the point of seeming immoral (though always to make a point).

...Ivanov argued that, unlike in the past, modern yurodivy are generally aware that they look pathetic in others’ eyes. They strive to pre-empt this contempt through exaggerated self-humiliation, and following such displays they let it be known both that their behaviors were staged and that their purpose was to disguise their superiority over their audience.

...The practice was recognised in the hagiography of fifth-century Byzantium, and it was extensively adopted in Muscovite Russia, probably in the 14th century. The madness of the Holy Fool was ambiguous, and could be real or simulated. He (or she) was believed to have been divinely inspired, and was therefore able to say truths which others could not, normally in the form of indirect allusions or parables. He had a particular status in regard to the Tsars, as a figure not subject to earthly control or judgement.

Cool piece of history, though it sounds less like Lenin and more like a figure with a social function protected by the position.  It makes me think of the traditional clown, or a court jester.

Quote

The Eastern Orthodox Church holds that holy fools voluntarily take up the guise of insanity in order to conceal their perfection from the world, and thus avoid praise.

Hmm, so you have in your head to criticise the social order, OK, instead of how they did it in the past, really make people think you are mad, you will be seen as such, and it will do the more good for it.  In the end.  In heaven maybe.  Just not now. 

Like the figure of the self-hating Jew perhaps, used so criticism can be ignored when it comes from within, tainted by it's source - the internalisation of the outer world's persecution.

 

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, JonS said:

Sure, but bear in mind we've spent approximately 1245 pages here telling ourselves how great precision is, and how the Russians are Gomer Pyles for their spray and pray approach.

Edit: also, sprinkling a 105mm battery - or even regiment - across an entire grid square would be very thin indeed.

And the entire infinity of pages is correct, but you can't always get the whole chain working. Keeping their heads down a bit is better than not all. Perfectly placing one guided round in every fighting position alway the best, but...

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

What I have my doubts are how influential, determined, coherent and effective they can be. Several buckets of ice water on their heads "Motorolla-elevator" style may be enough to calm them down, just as it was during "spring cleaning" of first wave of Donbas veterans.

Granted, nobody really knows how many influential people are theoretically "on board" with toppling Putin.  I suspect it is a lot because the security and military apparatus is loaded with people who align with RU Nat's basic philosophy... Russia to rule over all.  I don't think there is likely any other ideology in Russia that is as universally found amongst the levers of power as that. 

The fact that Girkin hasn't been blown up or otherwise made to shut his cakehole is pretty clear evidence, to me, that he's protected.  If he's protected then the people protecting him must be numerous and influential.  Either that or he's left out there as a "honey pot" to lure in others which the FSB goes after.  I don't think that's likely, but it's possible.

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Even if they are indeed so dangerous, and Putin do face new (albeit fringe) political power in his country, it is still not such a big deal for regime.

I'm sure Gorbachev felt the same way when he went down to hid dacha and found that all communications were cut and he was effectively under house arrest.  The KGB was supposedly pretty badassed in its day and there to make sure something like that didn't happen.  It did because the RU Nats of the day made it happen.

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

@billbindc is right here- Russian population is passive-supportive of war, but most importantly want stabilization to last.

I'm not sure how stable Russians feel things are these days.  However, as I keep saying... the RU Nats don't care about the population's opinions because if they get into power they will declare martial law and beat, arrest, or disappear anybody that causes them trouble.  In their minds this will work because the Russian people want stability, even at the expense of personal liberty.

Again, you need to get inside their heads and think like they do if you want to try and second guess their behavior.  Even then that's a dicey proposition to predict behavioral trends of anybody.

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Nats may need special handling slightly different than those applied against liberals or oligarchs in order to turn them into Putin's useful tools, but "riding the tiger" is not something he would refrain from. Unlike liberals, they have some uses till the war last (ofc. it can also be waged without them, but why throw away useful blade even if handle holds slightly uncomfortable?).

 

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Also note that most criticism is still directed NOT personally against V.V.Putin, but advisors and particluar military leaders or general "government".

It's getting less and less that way.  They are even mentioning Putin in a critical way.  This is one of the reasons I think at least some RU Nats are losing their patience with Putin.  If they are saying this stuff in public, I can only imagine what they are saying in private.

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Maybe let's better keep this discussion for later, as now we have a lot of movement on military front and I have no time to even check beautiful new maps here.

They are beautiful   I think we're going to have some very interesting things to talk about tomorrow.  I also think we'll start getting some more solid news.  The Russian bloggers might not be a fully reliable source (hah), but they are useful.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW is again late with their report for today.  Their report from yesterday is up and there's a lot of good summary material in there to read:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30

Specific to the 3rd Army Corps, it seems Kharkiv received some of its forces and the rest are now in southern Ukraine or headed to there.  It is unclear if any of these forces have moved into frontline positions.

ISW also concludes that the large amount of equipment moving into Crimea is indeed headed northward into southern Ukraine.  We can presume much of this is in support of the 3rd Army Corps.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Sober reminder that offensive actions are not without costs.

This WSJ reporter interviews wounded Ukrainian soldiers and their doctors in the South:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338

[JonS]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

And the entire infinity of pages is correct, but you can't always get the whole chain working. Keeping their heads down a bit is better than not all. Perfectly placing one guided round in every fighting position alway the best, but...

Again, sure. Suppression is a super important element of combined arms fire and manoeuvre, allowing friendly infantry to close with the enemy, to kill or capture him. But sprinkling has no role to play in suppression.

Using the range provided by RA to sprinkle 105s around deeper in their backfield /without/ associated manoeuvre is a bit silly. Harassment and interdiction is totally a thing, but effective h&i is not achieved by sprinkling.

Using the extra range from RA to pull the guns back into your own backfield makes sense - in terms of protecting them from CB - but comes with reduced precision. That's important because it means that the suppressing fire will have to lift earlier as the friendly bullet-catchers close in, leaving them exposed for longer to hostile fire. There's a trade off here: closer guns = more precision = better suppression but more exposure of the guns. Deeper guns = less precision (made worse by using RA) = less suppression but safer guns.  Where you land on that spectrum depends mostly on which you value more: filthy grunts, or noble and dignified gunners.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by JonS

[Grigb]

RU reports active arty battles at Kharkiv direction

Quote

The Kharkov front has come to life. Even in Belgorod, the cannonade can be heard. According to information from comrades, active work is underway on the rear and the accumulation of manpower at the forefront. The AFU is maneuvering.