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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

About 3rd Corps. Today loacals wrote about "endless stream of Russian vehicles, driving through Torez to Donetsk - about 150 of tanks and light armor, about 150 of artillery, MLRS and trucks with ammunition and about 300 other supply trucks and special vehicles"

Likely part of this column uploaded Russians themselve. The sign of 3rd Corps presumably on vehciles

 

That is a big bunch of trouble, even if poorly trained.  Hopefully Putin will put them somewhere stupid.  Or will send them on an offensive against well prepared UKR defenses that smashes them at no cost.

But if these units are heading west, what are they gonna do?  They can't cross the river to Kherson.  The only thing they can do, offensively, would be to threaten Zaporizhe.

Edited by danfrodo
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32 minutes ago, Cederic said:

It feels that would be a strategic mistake. Right now they can demonstrably reduce the Russian front line presence by 20,000 of its experienced troops; letting them withdraw allows redeployment to other battles.

Some may need to be killed but I suspect most can be captured. Paying to guard, house and feed them through the winter feels cheaper than having to fight them in Donetsk.

@FancyCat

If you meant this... 

...that's obviously mockery. "Negotiation" = "Offensive".

"Gesture of goodwill" is a Russian "new language" terms is "we got fu...d and forced to retreat" :)

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:

...the left bank of the Dnieper

I would like to clarify for those that don't know, which was me until about half an hour ago (though I had suspected), that this means the eastern bank of the river, since it flows south.  There is also some history to using the terms 'left bank' and 'right bank' in the context of the Dnieper in particular.

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37 minutes ago, kraze said:

So how many women did this brave man, a future "native French citizen" rape and how many men he killed during these two months, during which he was perfectly OK with doing warcrimes?

I also wondered about these questions. On the one hand, he may be useful for exposing Russian crimes, but on the other, admitting his faults does not make him less of a criminal. Perhaps he will be sheltered during the conflict and then be judged when the war is over for the crimes he may have caused (just like all those little comrades who consider themselves safe from everything judgement).

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See the column moving across open ground in daylight. What are the night fighting capabilities of the opposing forces? I assume they are fairly equal, since it has not come up in any of the reporting during the war. Ops are 24/7, but does one side have any advantage at night? 

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15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video from RT supposedly showing a standard line division in Kharkiv area (obviously not frontline).  But the guy talking to the camera has, I think the new 3rd AC patch on his left arm.  Doesn't he?

No, this is usual patch "guard/st.Georgiy strip", 3rd corps  chevron is schematic picture of Russian flag on purple background. Also tanks have "old" Z marking, not "circle in triangle" like probably 3rd Corps. 

27th MBR holds positions in Kharkiv oblast already long time ago 

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Mikhail Gorbachev is dead. I remember seeing this from a distance...and simply not realizing what was happening because Soviet leaders simply didn't do crowds or personal popularity. It was refreshing and the relief one felt at the time in DC is hard to explain to those who don't remember the Ground Zero Cafe or dancing to Party at Ground Zero. 

I am quite sure this won't be an event of obvious consequence now but keep an eye on it later. It's the sort of thing that brings old allies together, that reminds the public that the end result of Gorbachev's very complicated legacy didn't need to be *this* (as in Putin's grim autarky).

 

Edited by billbindc
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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, this is usual patch "guard/st.Georgiy strip", 3rd corps  chevron is schematic picture of Russian flag on purple background.

OK, some Twitter guy got it wrong I think.

Although I have to ask a rhetorical question... how much St. George stripes can one soldier have on him at one time?  Russian soldiers could probably be a whole kilo lighter if he just tripped down on that alone ;)

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also tanks have "old" Z marking, not "circle in triangle" like probably 3rd Corps. 

Yeah, I was wondering about that.  The paint was really faded so wasn't sure if they hadn't got around to painting the new symbols yet.

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

27th MBR holds positions in Kharkiv oblast already long time ago 

Yup.

Thanks!

Steve

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24 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

but does one side have any advantage at night? 

All depends from units one opposite other on selected part of frontline. Of course, SOF of both sides equipped very well. And LDPR conscripts, having almost nothing as well as UKR new-formed rifle battalions, attached to existing brigades, which have too few NV equipment even in comparison with territorial defense units. 

UKR has some advantage in that we have huge volunteer funds and many small volunteer groups, which can supply quickly all - from whole battalion to individual soldier if he ask about thermal or NV for own squad or platoon, for example. Of course, all this staff is continuosly losing, breaking, destroying and requireing constant replenishment. So, our volunteers I, suppose, can replenish and fill our troops with devices more quickly, that Russian centralized supply system 

Edited by Haiduk
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Interesting piece in the NY Times (paywall, sorry!) about how units barter equipment with each other, especially captured Russian stuff.  It is both a means of overcoming problems with Ukraine's supply chain, but also a way to efficiently redistribute captured equipment from those who don't need it to those who do.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/30/world/europe/ukrainian-soldiers-weapons-front-line.html

Steve

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There was claimed yesterday about 12 directions of attack and 4 successful directions from this number. Here is example of one unsuccessful...

The area near Petrivka village, 126 km NE from Kherson (more even Nikopol' direction)

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Are the airforces still active in this war?

In the beginning, we saw many videos of planes and helicopters being shot down, but it's been a while now since I saw any.

Well, we do know that Ukrainian MiG-29s have (ahem) HARMed Russian air defenses a bit lately...

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