How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Exactly how I imagine my perfect vacation evening to look like:

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

instead of map today I decided to translate Mashkovets post about 3 AK.

That is even  uglier than I expected.  And I expected ugly

I thought Russia would focus the manpower on fighting units, not try to build a real Corps with all of its support units.  It's one thing to throw a bunch of untrained guys into a rifle unit, it's another to throw untrained guys into specialist units.  This is the Luftwaffe Field Division mistake all over again.  Good

What Russia should have done was create battalion sized fighting units and assign them to existing Divisions or even Corps.  This would leverage logistics and support capabilities that are likely underutilized at the moment due to depleted BTG strength.  Better use of untrained manpower, better use of existing units (without the messiness of refitting, as I laid out a couple of pages ago), and probably faster deployment.

And I'm glad Russian leaders made the decisions they did because it is favorable to Ukraine that Russia use its limited manpower in this way.

It will be interesting to see if the other three Corps come to fruition before this one gets shredded to pieces.  Odds are Russia will learn nothing from the disaster and simply repeat the mistake.  If it even has that sort of time left before collapse.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

That you can have spineless surrender monkeys like this in relatively prominent academic positions is remarkable to me. You can either help Ukraine fight this war to a conclusion today or let your children and grandchildren fight Russia in 20 years' time.

This Richard Hanania seems like a real fool.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

Grigb, thanks for fleshing out some of my arguments with more detail and bring a few more things into the discussion.

Kinophile raises some good points to examine to check and see what the status is of a shift in power within Russia.  I think we mostly agree on what the ingredients are for such a thing to happen.  The difference is that some of us (Grigb and myself for sure) see those things already existing while others (Kinophile in this case) thinks they aren't there yet even though the trend towards them is headed in that direction.

The importance of our difference of opinion is what sort of impact a singular event might have on Putin's reign in power.  Grigb and I are of the belief that we've arrived at a time when one more major mistake could tip the balance towards coup or civil war.

The two big ones to watch for are:

• Kherson falling in a spectacular way (it is likely to go that direction once Ukraine starts a ground offensive)
• 3rd Corps getting slaughtered at the front with little to show for it
• Putin attempts to make a decisive move against the RU Nats

I suspect a military defeat more than a political house cleaning event, but we don't know how far along the latest coup attempt might be.

Steve

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

This Richard Hanania seems like a real fool.

He needs to be run right off the internet...

Edited August 29, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[fireship4]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

Captain Blackadder

An understandable mistake, the correct contact name is in fact 'Catpain Blackudder' if I remember correctly.

 

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

It would be if Putin did not clean military leadership a long time ago. One charismatic and competent general would already amass enough political influence to get loyalty of the army and majority of country. It is just that all such generals are dead or thrown out of the army (see general Lebed example in the period of 1 Chechen war. Not very well known general quickly became a major political star capable of challenging Yeltsin. He died under suspicious circumstances in 2002)

One reason the leadership is so bad perhaps: do too well and you die!

 

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

The same FSB that for years was unable/unwilling even to threaten Girkin or Murz credibly enough to shut their mouths. The truth is FSB is actually RU Nat organization. It is just the top leadership that is loyal to Putin.

So they kill Girkin, nationalist leaning FSB guys on the front-line get super jumpy and declare allegiance to the nats, who don't trust them because they are FSB... I would just go and have a lie down.  Give me Generation Kill any day.

 

2 hours ago, kraze said:

To some hammer and sickle sculpted out of cow crap gives hope and not fear.

As a holy book may be seen as dangerous knowledge by some, and a symbol of freedom by others, some have read it, some have not.  Some words and histories are more easily bent than others, a scaffold of interpretation is built, the intent of the writer lost or irrelevant. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by fireship4

[Battlefront.com]

I want to highlight one particular comment from Grigb's excellent post on the last page in order to make a point neither of us have reminded people of lately...

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Except it is exactly what happened in August 1991 when bunch of USSR Nats took control of a few military units and rushed Moscow. For around three days they had control over the whole Moscow except for a small patch of land around White house. 

I know we've mentioned the 1991 coup many times to remind people that Russia has an established history of coups of various types (some were fairly quiet affairs).  It is good to bring it up again, but I'm going to go another step.

There have already been several coup plots against Putin in the last 8 years.  We lack details, but it does seem there was one back in 2014, presumably by the oligarchs.  While Putin stayed in power, there were some leadership changes and the oligarchs were shut out of Putin's decision making going forward.  They were completely absent in his 2022 war calculations.  Then it seems the oligarchs tried again after the war started and this lead to some grisly massacres to thwart whatever was going on.  There's been RUMINT that there's been others plots, but nothing concrete.

The point here is that Putin is coming into this war politically weak.  He already has lost the confidence of the oligarchs and his faith in FSB's ability to read situations properly seems to be harmed.  He is also not pleased with the military.  That means three pillars of his regime are in an antagonistic relationship with him already.  Those are preconditions for a power shift if I've ever seen them.

Steve

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I want to highlight one particular comment from Grigb's excellent post on the last page in order to make a point neither of us have reminded people of lately...

I know we've mentioned the 1991 coup many times to remind people that Russia has an established history of coups of various types (some were fairly quiet affairs).  It is good to bring it up again, but I'm going to go another step.

There have already been several coup plots against Putin in the last 8 years.  We lack details, but it does seem there was one back in 2014, presumably by the oligarchs.  While Putin stayed in power, there were some leadership changes and the oligarchs were shut out of Putin's decision making going forward.  They were completely absent in his 2022 war calculations.  Then it seems the oligarchs tried again after the war started and this lead to some grisly massacres to thwart whatever was going on.  There's been RUMINT that there's been others plots, but nothing concrete.

The point here is that Putin is coming into this war politically weak.  He already has lost the confidence of the oligarchs and his faith in FSB's ability to read situations properly seems to be harmed.  He is also not pleased with the military.  That means three pillars of his regime are in an antagonistic relationship with him already.  Those are preconditions for a power shift if I've ever seen them.

Steve

The issue isn't that Putin is in a weaker position...it's that all of the contenders are in weak positions too. The intelligence/suppression services are humiliated by their misread of Ukraine. The military is humiliated by its continued malpractice at making war. The oligarchs are divorced from the levers of power and don't have any resonance within Russian nationalism. The first two pillars of power are also intensely, mutually antagonistic and neither has much time for the money men. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. It is a feature of this sort of state...it's bad at everything except forestalling the rise of a competing power structure. If Putin falls, it won't be a revolution so much as a corollary to total systemic exhaustion. We aren't there yet.

[chuckdyke]

A German explanation of the Russian artillery missions in the Donbass. The translation is OK the missions were 60000  shells a day HE of 40 kg . Looks like the Russians make the same mistake as the Germans did during the Blitz of 1940. Target civilian infrastructure whist the Ukrainian Army targets the Russian military. 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by chuckdyke

[chuckdyke]

Re the above video. The German artillery stresses that during operations 'Smartphones should be put in the soldier's lockers. Putting them on the end of a 155mm shell could also be a solution. Lol

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

The issue isn't that Putin is in a weaker position...it's that all of the contenders are in weak positions too. The intelligence/suppression services are humiliated by their misread of Ukraine. The military is humiliated by its continued malpractice at making war. The oligarchs are divorced from the levers of power and don't have any resonance within Russian nationalism. The first two pillars of power are also intensely, mutually antagonistic and neither has much time for the money men. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. It is a feature of this sort of state...it's bad at everything except forestalling the rise of a competing power structure. If Putin falls, it won't be a revolution so much as a corollary to total systemic exhaustion. We aren't there yet.

All true, but this reinforces my point.  Putin is the glue that kept these three competing interests in line and working together.  Dysfunctional?  Absolutely, but still "rowing in the same direction" by and large.  The only thing a power bloc wants less than to have Putin's job is to have a rival bloc get it. 

As Putin grows weaker each group will suspect the other one is going to make a move.  Nobody wants to move too soon, but nobody wants to move too late either.  Each of the power blocs, and the factions within them, are assessing the timing, who their competition is, and plotting ways to out ahead of them.  This sort of thing is normal daily business for these guys, so they are used to it.  The new element is that Putin's job is now in the mix.

What we don't know is how far along towards this enviable end we are at this time.  All we can be (reasonably) sure of is we're very far down that path already.  Someone could make a move at any time, but personally I think they are waiting for a high profile battlefield defeat or some other major military disaster (e.g. another Moskva type incident) to make a move. 

Another possibility is Putin might be forced to do a preemptive strike.  That could force things to a head all on its own.  That could make things quite messy to the point of Putin temporarily retaining power.

Either way, I think we're going to see something visible to us outsiders much sooner than later.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Video reportedly of T-64BM2 moving around.  How rare are these now?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wzvfns/ukrainian_t64bm2s/

Steve

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

All true, but this reinforces my point.  Putin is the glue that kept these three competing interests in line and working together.  Dysfunctional?  Absolutely, but still "rowing in the same direction" by and large.  The only thing a power bloc wants less than to have Putin's job is to have a rival bloc get it. 

Steve

Interestingly, some historians argue that Hitler was able to maintain his grip on supreme power in Germany because he played off competing interests against each other - not just at the top levels (SA, SS, Gestapo, Army, Navy, Luftwaffe) but even at mid levels (competing design teams for aircraft and any number of weapons or research programs) ...

Sounds like Putler is living down to his 'namesake' and role model

[Huba]

More and more bavovna in Kherson city.

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

On 8/27/2022 at 4:45 AM, billbindc said:

Germany couldn't envision anything that would induce the Russians to screw up something so obviously and mutually beneficial

I'm reminded of the old story of the scorpion and the frog.

A story which, incidentally, is from Russia.

[Thomm]

Since I have never heard of this:

From Wikipedia:

A scorpion wants to cross a river but cannot swim, so it asks a frog to carry it across. The frog hesitates, afraid that the scorpion might sting it, but the scorpion promises not to, pointing out that it would drown if it killed the frog in the middle of the river. The frog considers this argument sensible and agrees to transport the scorpion. Midway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway, dooming them both. The dying frog asks the scorpion why it stung despite knowing the consequence, to which the scorpion replies: "I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's in my nature.

That's pretty dark.

Best regards
Thomm

[Fenris]

Nothing important, just interesting.  Although jokes about German weapons deliveries do present themselves.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video reportedly of T-64BM2 moving around.  How rare are these now?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wzvfns/ukrainian_t64bm2s/

Steve

Four belonging to 92 OMBr were shown in the 2021 Independence Day parade, at least one was verified destroyed in Kharkiv by artillery back in March at the tank training school.

In 2021 it was reported that a full company of T-64BM2s was to be created (which would be 13 tanks including the company commander tank), but no idea how far they got with that before the war. It's the most capable tank in the Ukrainian army besides the Oplot-M (which never really entered full service).

Edited August 29, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Huba]

More targets HIMARSed today, including targets in Nova Kakhovka, and the ferries:

And, let's not be overly optimistic, but reports start arriving that IT'S ON and UA finally makes a move against russians on the right bank of Dnipro:

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Strelkov confirms that UA is HIMARSing RU infantry on the very front line. It's going to be an interesting day:

https://t.me/strelkovii/3142

And some UA officials comment on the matter. TBH if they were really at it, they wouldn't say a word I think. Perhaps it's a ruse to make RU move their reserves, that can then be attacked? 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Small update on RU movement (Just noticed small mistake - latest tweet about Torez was posted today.)

Discussion:

• It is unknow who these guys are but most likely they are related to 3 AK
• It could be deliberate disinformation move 
• If not, why do they go to Donetsk?

Let look at another map!

• From Donetsk they have two routes - up to Yasinovataya where Avdyivka and Pisky are located. 
• Down to Maryinka and Volnovakha
• The problem with Volnovakha is HIMARS. Why go that route if they can drive from Mariupol and be outside of HIMARS range most of the time? BTW Neklidovka train station is down there as well.

Another one mystery.

[kraze]

10 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

A German explanation of the Russian artillery missions in the Donbass. The translation is OK the missions were 60000  shells a day HE of 40 kg . Looks like the Russians make the same mistake as the Germans did during the Blitz of 1940. Target civilian infrastructure whist the Ukrainian Army targets the Russian military. 

 

At this point we pretty much established that Russia is just really a big cosplay of Nazi Germany.

They just hope what didn't work for their forefathers - will totally work from the second attempt.

People in Ukraine at this point really became numb to russian terrorism - it happens daily, it's just 'telly news' for those who didn't die this night - which is both a good and a bad thing - but bad for russian Nazis either way because it gives them nothing - but they can't wage war in any other way.

[Huba]

Splinter damage on the armoured truck cabin. Life and death difference for the crew it seems:

 

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

but they can't wage war in any other way.

It is what the German said, an artillery mission depends on the right intelligence. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

And some UA officials comment on the matter. TBH if they were really at it, they wouldn't say a word I think. Perhaps it's a ruse to make RU move their reserves, that can then be attacked? 

 

Mashovets wrote just now

Quote

There are certain news from the South...
but about them - a little later ...
Remember, during the war it is not worth it to make public in a hurry every piece of information that comes to you, even if it seems very good to you...

 

Meanwhile something happening in Izum and both sides are quiet except couple of RU Nat posts.

[UPDATE] I am busy with other things and making maps on the fly.  So, unfortunately I am making mistakes as well - in the post of GAW it is not On the third day but third day in the row disturbing news..

[UPDATE2] Noticed another mistake - GAW post in P.S. it is not military officers but military reporters. This is what attracts my attention to this direction - for a some time RU intentionally limits information from there (blocking reporters, telling Girkin to be quiet about it). But no significant RU offensive has happened there yet.

So, what are they hiding there that is not RU offensive? Rhetorical question. 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Grigb