How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MSBoxer]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

An M113 shouldn't be near anything more dangerous than a paintball gun. 

Agreed, I don't want to see them "in combat"  I do hope they can be of use supplying those that are in combat.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Splinty said:

Please no 

 

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

An M113 shouldn't be near anything more dangerous than a paintball gun. 

Hell yeah! With the assorted 8inchers! 

( I wanted to insert a photo here, but Google doesn't want to find any anymore. Thanks God for that. /joke) 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Huba

[Bannon]

I found the following on YouTube and since so many of you are well informed and/or experienced, I wonder how you feel about what is presented here and how what we’re learning in Ukraine might change the Army’s plans?
 

The Transformation of US Tank Divisions (2030): https://youtu.be/nV4W8w1plug

Edited August 25, 2022 by Bannon

[Letter from Prague]

39 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

Hell yeah! With the assorted 8inchers! 

( I wanted to insert a photo here, but Google doesn't want to find any anymore. Thanks God for that. /joke) 

The only correct solution is the AeroGavin

[Kinophile]

Jeebus, that's unseeable

[Kinophile]

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Today someone asked me about the Dugin Daughter stuff,  and after I tried explaining current thoughts, somewhat clearly,  they summed it up for me:

So- we dont know why, or by whom or what it means.  We haven't a clue, really. Does it matter? [as an event] Maybe. 

 

[sburke]

24 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

successful mine clearing operation RA style.

Goal of operation - clear the mines

success rate - 100%

you can't argue with sucess!

Edited August 25, 2022 by sburke

[Fenris]

Perhaps hitting a mine and walking back to your lines alive is preferable to getting close the UKR light infantry.

[danfrodo]

37 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

5 tanks???  Plus whatever is burning at top of frame?  that's a good day in that sector for sure!

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

It is excessively brutal except for FSB, GRU and probably oligarchs close to Putin like Prigozhin. For these guys it is normal if loyalty is the main issue. Or it was Malofieiev wife - while it is too complicated for love triangle murder, we must not forget that sometimes wifes have powerful fathers who could be really pissed off at another woman.

Ok, that is what one may call thickening of the plot. Now we are past Suvorov novels and landed somewhere between Agatha Christie and Mario Vargsa Llosa.

Reportedly Rusian Kornet hitting squad of infantry, probably with thermobaric warhead.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

 looking at photos from Dugin lecture I noticed an interesting guy:

 

Damned longhaired peacenik hippies! 

Oh, wait. 

Not sure about your 'minder' theory. Usually those guys are no-necks and either look deadpan, or else glower or sneer at the camera. Nor do they take the 'keener / teacher's pet' chair in the front row; they keep an eye on the crowd.

This guy looks like kind of a dork and my first instinct (totally unconfirmable and doesn't mean he's a foreigner) is that he's non-Slavic. Journalist or LARPer? Rich kid who was the daughter's love interest, or wanted to be? Who knows....

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

I thought this was going to be a repeat of another video posted in this thread previously, but nope. I think this is the second time I've seen a clip like this

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I thought this was going to be a repeat of another video posted in this thread previously, but nope. I think this is the second time I've seen a clip like this

Yes, it was from July. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1WVyR2V4Wg

Such epic display of military fatalism is hard to forget.

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This guy looks like kind of a dork and my first instinct (totally unconfirmable and doesn't mean he's a foreigner) is that he's non-Slavic. Journalist or LARPer? Rich kid who was the daughter's love interest, or wanted to be? Who knows....

Or he's the videographer sitting behind his camera and is more aware of or knows the person taking the photo, or even triggered it remotely himself.

At this point, I'm hoping it was the Ukrainians who did it, with the simple purpose of sowing chaos. Given the effort and thought put into figuring out who did it and why around the internet, imagine the growing confusion and paranoia among the FSB, GRU, Russian nats, Kremlin, et al.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Offshoot

[Beleg85]

...Or maybe all this fuss was just to change the name of the operation to even more lame?

At Kremlin they still think they are USA in very early 2000's and it is fashionable to fight "terrorists". It looks all imperial complexes that bottled inside Putin's head for last two decades suddenly jumped out... I'd swear the guy relives his second youth this way.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

...Or maybe all this fuss was just to change the name of the operation to even more lame?

At Kremlin they still think they are USA in very early 2000's and it is fashionable to fight "terrorists". It looks all imperial complexes that bottled inside Putin's head for last two decades suddenly jumped out... I'd swear the guy relives his second youth this way.

Reminds me of a corporation that is doomed to go bankrupt and the best idea the CEO has is to change the name.

[sburke]

29 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

...Or maybe all this fuss was just to change the name of the operation to even more lame?

At Kremlin they still think they are USA in very early 2000's and it is fashionable to fight "terrorists". It looks all imperial complexes that bottled inside Putin's head for last two decades suddenly jumped out... I'd swear the guy relives his second youth this way.

freer rein? They launched an f'n war that is causing turmoil around the globe.  Where did they hold back.. oh wait yeah those folks who still think Russia can win this and feel there is another gear.  

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

Been out of town for a few days. A LOT of discussion about different threats to armor in general and MBTs in particular. I would just point out that mines remain an extremely unsolved problem. Given that they are cheap and everyone has them, this is a definite mark against ten million dollar armored vehicles designed to be used out at the pointy end of the spear.

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/01/13/army-readies-to-deliver-first-set-of-strykers-with-50-kilowatt-laser-weapons/

All publicly available information seems to indicate the army found this vehicle to be worth having around, But there are no specifics on performance. They do not tell us the dwell time required to kill drones of various sizes at various ranges.  They do not tell us if the primary tracking mechanism is infrared, radar, radio emissions from the drone, or all of the above.

If it REALLY works it would be close to game changing. My definition of "really works" is the ability to swat an Orlan ten at ten kilometers in a minute, and do it minute after minute after minute. This would imply even faster kills against quad copter type drones. this level of performance would force drones to fly like this guy.

And would be a significant shift from the current doctrine. The laser Styrker or similar would become an integral part of every artillery battery and command group. All of this ties nicely into the boards previous discussions of protecting your sides ISR bubble while popping the other guys. An open question if even the U.S. can afford enough of them, but the lessons of this war would seem to imply we can't afford NOT to buy them.

I still think that hot new thing at the forward edge of battle is going to a multispectral ghillie suit that resembles the bush of your choice.

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by dan/california

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

...Or maybe all this fuss was just to change the name of the operation to even more lame?

At Kremlin they still think they are USA in very early 2000's and it is fashionable to fight "terrorists". It looks all imperial complexes that bottled inside Putin's head for last two decades suddenly jumped out... I'd swear the guy relives his second youth this way.

Knives cut both ways. Something like that would increase the chances of the US and UK, at least, declaring Russia to be a State Sponsor of Terrorism (which it is, of course) ... and then real sanctions would kick in.

Or they could declare the leadership of the so-called DPR/LPR to be terrorists and put bounties on their heads ... including any faux 'Judges' who might be called on to 'try' the defenders of Mariupol.

[JonS]

On 8/20/2022 at 8:26 AM, Ultradave said:

Reduce power levels to very low level, disconnect from the grid, shutdown the plants, either leave them in hot standby for restart or cool them down to cold shutdown.  Done.  20% of UKR electricity cut off.

There is no danger to the plant, or to the environment to do that. None at all. Nuclear plants, and for that matter ANY electrical generation plant, do that ALL THE TIME. There's absolutely no reason to cut the plant off from the electric grid to stop it from operating and providing electricity. I would think by cutting it off they mean cut off IT from supplying electricity to the grid. It can still draw from the grid for it's own power loads. But if they did do that (cut off completely), there are backup diesel generators to supply power for cooling, unless of course someone blows those up. Fukushima was a problem because the DGs and their fuel were located above the design basis tsunami water level. They had what they call a "beyond design basis" accident. 

Dave

You might want to contact the IAEA, telling them to stand down and stop fretting. They seem quite exercised about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/26/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-ukraine-russia-europe-radiation-disaster

https://www.iaea.org/contact

 

[LongLeftFlank]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Been out of town for a few days. A LOT of discussion about different threats to armor in general and MBTs in particular. I would just point out that mines remain an extremely unsolved problem. Given that they are cheap and everyone has them, this is a definite mark against ten million dollar armored vehicles designed to be used out at the pointy end of the spear.

 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/01/13/army-readies-to-deliver-first-set-of-strykers-with-50-kilowatt-laser-weapons/

All publicly available information seems to indicate the army found this vehicle to be worth having around, But there are no specifics on performance. They do not tell us the dwell time required to kill drones of various sizes at various ranges.  They do not tell us if the primary tracking mechanism is infrared, radar, radio emissions from the drone, or all of the above.

If it REALLY works it would be close to game changing. My definition of "really works" is the ability to swat an Orlan ten at ten kilometers in a minute, and do it minute after minute after minute. This would imply even faster kills against quad copter type drones. this level of performance would force drones to fly like this guy.

And would be a significant shift from the current doctrine. The laser Styrker or similar would become an integral part of every artillery battery and command group. All of this ties nicely into the boards previous discussions of protecting your sides ISR bubble while popping the other guys. An open question if even the U.S. can afford enough of them, but the lessons of this war would seem to imply we can't afford NOT to buy them.

I still think that hot new thing at the forward edge of battle is going to a multispectral ghillie suit that resembles the bush of your choice.

 

Yeah, agreed, and hey, that's another potential plus for the Remote Lego Battle Buggies:

Low ground pressure that makes Russia's Cold War stockpile of conventional AT mines useless, or at least in need of some rewiring.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Splinty said:

Please no 

I rarely hand out likes, but that sir got a like

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

In my opinion Malofeev hit is unlikely. She wasn't his relative so her death would not cause any real pain to him. As a result, as message to him it's counterproductive as it shows - we are too afraid of you to cause you real pain.

However, that got me thinking - what's if she was his lover? I mean - young daughter and cool (for RU Nat) looking rich friend of father...

Let's look at the photo from the event - she is not with her father. She is with...

Oh my, that is an interesting tidbit to chew on.  Not because I think Malofeev's wife was jilted and had Dugina killed.  Nope, because one of my theories earlier on (before I hit upon GRU thought) was, just like all others familiar with Russia, related to organized crime.  But not because of criminal activity of Dugina or Dugin, but because of their benefactor -> Malofeev.

At first I thought it was a bit of a stretch that someone wanted to get at Malofeev and chose Dugina, his protege's daughter.  Possible, but not very likely.  However, if Dugina was his lover... whoa boy would that make sense.  Taking away his "bit of crumpet" (as our Brit friends might have said 40 years ago) would hit him, but not in a way he could publicly get too upset about.

The thing is, if someone was going to kill Dugina to send a message to Malofeev, I'm thinking a high profile bomb blast would not be the method.  I'd guess something more mundane, such as "suicide" or "drug overdose" followed by a cryptic note that makes the connection crystal clear.  Less likely to have a spill over problem such as making FSB look bad.  Therefore, on its own I don't think criminal underworld hit fits, putting me back to GRU with a twist. 

I've taken the time to write up my theory thus far.  Much of it contains elements which are likely at play even if my GRU theory is incorrect.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

... including any faux 'Judges' who might be called on to 'try' the defenders of Mariupol.

There is only one Judge in the Cursed Earth, and He Is The Law!