How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Just to get you taste of the unofficial version, quote:

Quote

Let's be clear right away: we honestly doubt that Ukrainians are behind the murder of Dasha Dugina. Since most of the @rybar project team was familiar with Dasha and worked together, we decided to share our vision of the situation.
...

You can be a liberal and sing the praises of the Ukrainian army, which is supplied by the whole world, as much as you like, write complimentary odes to the Ukrainian infobors [info fighters], whose actions are led by British specialists, and also admire the work of the Ukrainian special forces, under whose "legend" [legend is RU terms for cover story] the SAS detachments operate...

Ukrainians are able to make a drone out of **** and sticks and drop a mine on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainians are capable of media inflating the toilet blown up in Nizhny Tagil, passing it off as the greatest victory of Ukrainian saboteurs.

To carry out an attempt to eliminate the father of Great Russian nationalism? Not their level, not their handwriting, not their style...

It can be assumed that some specialists — with the help from inside Russia — under the guise of refugees penetrated into the territory of Russia from Ukraine and carried out an operation, as a result of which Dasha was mistakenly killed. But there is too little data to say for sure who exactly was the performer. And it's not so important.

But the organizers — they are there, sitting on the stands of the transhumant UN, OSCE, EU and NATO.

Interesting points:

• They assign blame directly to heinous westerners
• They specifically name British as evil masterminds behind UKR 

On the other hand, RU intelligence is hardly more competent than RU army. Here is RU operative who followed Grozev:

 

And here is RU operative from Bulgaria scandal (not sure about country)

 

 

[Beleg85]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Hi, I am back. I was helping my friend. He was trying to access the men who supposed to deal with RU Nats. You know it is difficult to sit idle in a chair when people are dying. Also, I am of the opinion that things will get worse and better to start defending Europe now. It took significant efforts and time, so I had to go offline for some time. Unfortunately, my friend was not successful. Well, he will try to figure out some other ways to contact the men.

Back to Dugin daughter assassination:

• Clearly, it is FSB false flag operation. FSB false flag ops are very easy to recognize - they are useless for other side yet aimed at generating some shock value at RU population. That is exactly what happened.
• UKR would use Switchblade. Full stop.
• From details of assassination, you can see strange occurrences. Dugin miraculously escaped it - at the last moment he decided to go to a different car and assassins did not detect it. IED was under driver seat which given age of Dugin was unlikely to be occupied by Dugin. The explosion miraculously happened not when a lot of RU Nats were around the car - a bit of more explosives and lot of RU Nats would go to Stalin.
• Strange target for assassination is not that strange - they do not want to generate excessive shock, so Dugin as useless but infamous target is good (general public does not care about him to uncontrolably freak out) . Also, FSB likes to test public reaction first, so killing Dugin daughter is even a better way to see how general public reacts. So, they selected Dugin but decided to kill his daughter first as a test.
• Actually, there is whole RU narrative behind the attack - unofficial RU propaganda claim that because UKR is losing (according to RU propaganda) Zelinsky planning to wage terror campaign in mainland RU in late August-early September. So, this is supposed to be the first terror attack of the campaign.
• RU Nats are grieving but subjectively I do not feel as much shock as in the case of Saki strike. That strike left them speechless. This one left them grieving. Let see how it will develop.
• On the separate note they call for terror strikes against UKR and Europe. Most likely Putin
  having exhausted RU military options (Donbass offensive is stalled and they have severe manpower crisis blocking them from launching any big offensive elsewhere) is planning to wage non-military terror campaign himself. First in RU to influence RU population to support the war and give him more cannon fodder. Then in UKR and possibly in Europe to increase support of peace deal. They literally do not have anything left. 

Hey, cool you are back here again. Also, tell your friend to look after himself; seems like dangerous stuff.

 

My doubts regarding Dugina:

-For 99% it was not Ukrainians. And for 90% highest Kremlin officials must knew about assassination; rogue bandits and businesspeople usually avoid killing persons under possible political protection, especially during war.

-If they wanted to spice up things to motivate public more, they could do this in 1000 other ways, including mass casualties events you described. The point is one relatively obscure fascist (or his daughter) is not something wide Russian public will immediatelly jump into rage about. Yup, they will be martyrs of sort for some fringe cricles, but what with rest? On the other side, you may be right thye are just probing for now.

I am seriously afraid that, for example taking down airliner landing at Sheremetievo airfield on August 24th, using captured Stinger/Piorun - that could produced desired effect.

-Right wing Russians are of course fully for war anyway, so no need to motivate them additionally. Unless it was to kick their heads down, but then also there were much better targets. Why hit your most loyal supporters like guys from Carograd TV?

-Assasination so close to the capital? It may remind people of 90's and may actually be counterproductive- seen as a failure by Russian security ans state apparatus.

-One theory lately arised that Dugins were responsible for contacts with Western European far right; and like in may such cases, they were suspected of defraudation of part of the money. Makes sense if some of is true.

-Galeev (for all his faults) lately also bring one interesting point- while Dugin was unimportant politically, his unearned fame in the west could paradoxially be reason for his fall. But that would mean assassination (and blaming UA) was directed at western public rather than domestic one. This could also make sense;Kremlin is still very stubbornly trying to sell this "UkroNazi" theory to the western public despite obvious failure of this strategy.

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

The currently discussed visa ban is mostly about tourist visas or Shengen visas. They are somewhat painful and do limit Kremlin options but do not eliminate all RU routes to Europe. Also, Kremlin view the ban differently - because it does not affect them that much, they hope the ban will drive liberals to their side (it would not but as you said we are dealing with imbeciles abd they are grasping for a last straws).

This is very interesting take. However, official propagandist have such meltodown over it that I have a sense that visa ban could really endanger their personal interests. But Kremlin may have that wrong too.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

13 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In Putin Russia, Score settle YOU!

Galeev has been a little scattershot lately, but he does make a relevant point here:

... 

 

TL:DR  All cards can go wild in extremis. Especially in Russia, where an economy/polity 'demodernised' itself twice within the last 100+ years.

Even shorter:  for Kremlinologists, GIGO

***

P.S.  Remember the Skripals and any number of other minor players for whom the 'punishment' did not seem to fit the crime, at least by any rationale rational people might use....

“‘Who ever heard of Moscow Rules in the middle of bloody Hampstead anyway?’ Strickland asked, waving out the match.

‘Bloody Hampstead is right,’ Smiley said quietly.”

that's why it's good to have LLF back.  Some out of the box thinking.  Interesting premise, that we all think international actors will be rational despite the endless litany of irrational history at our disposal.  Very, very good point.

Meanwhile, in other posts I see some talk of RU terror attacks in EU.  This would be insane and uber-counterproductive to RU interests -- therefore, citing LLF above, it is quite possible.

And something occurred to me that was probably mentioned a long time ago in forum and I've forgotten it.  But when we look at all the 'whys' of Putin invading, it occurred to me that perhaps he trapped himself.  He massed forces and made maximalist demands.  Probably hoping to get some nice concessions and could then de-escalate w a victory.  but when no one would give him anything, he was now in trap of his own making.  If he pulled the troops he would look incredibly weak everyone would see it as an obvious loss, and his super-genius facade would be severely damaged.  So maybe he took the big risk because he felt he couldn't back down, especially given his super-genius multi-pronged failsafe victory plan.

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Well they're getting it in spades now ... wonder why the United Kingdom supplied shedloads of NLAWs etc to Ukraine?

Yup.  The West may deliberately let things slide in order to avoid uncomfortable confrontation, but they do not forget.  I bet there are a lot of people in positions of decision making authority that are waiting for "payback" for various things Russia has done to them over the years.

Russia definitely is risking Article 4 and 5 invocations by such actions now vs. before.  In ordinary times it would take a very big, blatant attack to get any country to even think about (basically) declaring war on Russia.  After all the warcrimes, damage to economies, and costs to help Ukraine fight back... well... let's just say Russia has chewed up almost all of the good will it bought and/or earned since the fall of the Soviet Union.  I still think it will take a pretty significant event to get Article 4 or 5 to be successful, but whatever that event is it's likely smaller than it would have been even a couple of years ago.

Russia is like that obnoxious guy at a bar who says a bunch of crap to people and there's no bar fight.  But each time he says something it gets it closer.  Then he makes some comment about someone's mother and boooooom... fists go flying even though the comment itself wasn't nearly as bad as the ones before it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Like Russia, Ukraine has some pretty complicated internal problems with violent criminal activities and corruption that result in assassinations.

Steve

[pavel.k]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

These are the type of attacks I am talking about.   

Thanks for the great explanation!

50 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Yeah ... this.  Russia is concerned about Islamic terrorism on both its own soil and in the CSTO 'Stans bordering Afghanistan.  Using an Islamic militant for an attack would also not go down well with China.  A definite non-starter.

Yeah, I meant that using islamist would mask true perpetender. But as Grigb explained me, Russian organizations are not just evil, they are evil with purpose.

[Beleg85]

Short break from conspiracies  for a spectacle:

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Hey, cool you are back here again. Also, tell your friend to look after himself; seems like dangerous stuff.

 

My doubts regarding Dugina:

-If they wanted to spice up things to motivate public more, they could do this in 1000 other ways, including mass casualties events you described. The point is one relatively obscure fascist (or his daughter) is not something wide Russian public will immediatelly jump into rage about. Yup, they will be martyrs of sort for some fringe cricles, but what with rest? On the other side, you may be right thye are just probing for now.

FSB got painful lesson when they got caught by regional FSBs in Ryzan in 1999. So, they cannot be sure that mass casualty event will create necessary controllable shock - it might blow them in the face instead. So, they do need a dry ran to judge public mood first and Dugin's daughter assassination fits it perfectly. It is somewhat shocking but not too much and obscure enough to suppress it if public opinion starts blaming FSB.

 

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

-Right wing Russians are of course fully for war anyway, so no need to motivate them additionally. Unless it was to kick their heads down, but then also there were much better targets. Why hit your most loyal supporters?

A lot of RU Nats are for war but when somebody else is doing the fighting. The Kremlin sends them a signal that sitting in RU mainland will not save them from UKR terror attacks.

Also, do not forget that Kremlin does not like RU Nats per se. For Kremlin they are nothing more than useful idiots and they have no qualm about killing them. They are expendable for the greater cause. 

 

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

-One theory lately arised that Dugins were responsible for contacts with Western European far right; and like in may such cases, they were suspected of defraudation of part of the money. Makes sense if some of is true.

Kremlin does not punish people for stealing. Death is punishment for unloyalty/betrayal. Killing relatives is specifically punishment for unloyalty/betrayal. And this got me thinking that my version might be wrong, and your version might be right. This is the beauty of this forum as Steve said - if you are heading in the wrong direction there is always somebody to stop you. 

We know RU Nats are displeased with Putin. What's if Dugin believed Putin cannot threaten him due to his age/popularity among RU Nats. So, he made a move - let's say discussed with Western European far right life without Putin. In this case assassination of Dugin daughter right in front of him is what Putin would do.

So, we have these two versions - dry run and punishment for making premature move. If we will not see in few weeks any other similar attacks then I am wrong, and you are right - it was punishment for Dugin actions.

[Battlefront.com]

Good to see Grigb and LLF back.  Grigb, you in particular are excused for not being here for last week's fun filled adventures

My take on Dugin assassination is similar to what has been discussed in the previous page.  Very likely an FSB operation with the primary objective of sending a message within Russia's internal political order.  The target was not high profile in terms of power/influence, but was immediately recognizable.  This is similar to other assassinations, such as the slaughtering of relatively minor oligarchs when the war was still young.  The targets are selected to influence through warnings rather than a straight forward leadership hit.

And like pretty much all FSB operations, they likely have multiple objectives with the hit.  Killing Dugin's daughter sends a message to the RU Nats that they need to remember who they are dealing with.  It also gives Russia a false flag incident to ramp up rhetoric against Ukraine and, perhaps, act as an excuse for some assassination or other action it already has in mind.

Obviously this isn't Ukraine or (big laugh) the West.  A real attack like this would be exceptionally difficult to pull off successfully, including asset extraction following the hit.  If a Ukrainian or Western intel agency was going to do an assassination it would be against Shoigu or similar.  Why?  Because they would be seeking to affect the war in some direct way, which attacking Dugin absolutely in no way contributes to.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Kremlin does not punish people for stealing. Death is punishment for unloyalty/betrayal. Killing relatives is specifically punishment for unloyalty/betrayal. And this got me thinking that my version might be wrong, and your version might be right. This is the beauty of this forum as Steve said - if you are heading in the wrong direction there is always somebody to stop you. 

We know RU Nats are displeased with Putin. What's if Dugin believed Putin cannot threaten him due to his age/popularity among RU Nats. So, he made a move - let's say discussed with Western European far right life without Putin. In this case assassination of Dugin daughter right in front of him is what Putin would do.

So, we have these two versions - dry run and punishment for making premature move. If we will not see in few weeks any other similar attacks then I am wrong, and you are right - it was punishment for Dugin actions.

Interesting theory!  I think there is something to this, though not necessarily this specifically.

As I just posted, to me this looks like a warning to the RU Nats.  What I didn't do was speculate why now.  I was kinda assuming it was the usual... RU Nats are being a little too pro-Russia and not enough pro-Putin with their increasingly agitated commentary and (we can presume) private activities.  Killing either Dugin, therefore, would remind them that if any individual RU Nat gets too irritating for the regime, the establishment will strike back hard.

As Grigb said, killing someone like Dugin's daughter indicates that the Kremlin establishment is dealing with some perceived or actual "disloyalty".  For pretty much any other reason they would have done an arrest with the usual planted evidence.

If correct, this indicates that the RU Nat problem is perceived as being pretty serious for Kremlin (as the oligarchs were obviously a perceived threat earlier in the war).  Otherwise I would have expected something out of the public eye or even one of those strangely worded statements out of Putin, Peskov, or other Kremlin official that we see from time to time.

Steve

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting theory!  I think there is something to this, though not necessarily this specifically.

As I just posted, to me this looks like a warning to the RU Nats.  What I didn't do was speculate why now.  I was kinda assuming it was the usual... RU Nats are being a little too pro-Russia and not enough pro-Putin with their increasingly agitated commentary and (we can presume) private activities.  Killing either Dugin, therefore, would remind them that if any individual RU Nat gets too irritating for the regime, the establishment will strike back hard.

As Grigb said, killing someone like Dugin's daughter indicates that the Kremlin establishment is dealing with some perceived or actual "disloyalty".  For pretty much any other reason they would have done an arrest with the usual planted evidence.

If correct, this indicates that the RU Nat problem is perceived as being pretty serious for Kremlin (as the oligarchs were obviously a perceived threat earlier in the war).  Otherwise I would have expected something out of the public eye or even one of those strangely worded statements out of Putin, Peskov, or other Kremlin official that we see from time to time.

Steve

My only quibble with this theory is that there's very little reason for the Kremlin to whip the Duginists into shape so publicly. Russia is already clearly not winning even to the Russian public. Beach goers in Crimea are fleeing. Lots of their boys aren't coming home again. A car bomb, while a salutary lesson to the nationalists, also says that the government isn't in full control even in the heartland. 

We don't know yet, of course, but the primary goal of Putin's team has been to ensure stability. It's why there's been no general mobilization. I can't see them doing this, in this manner, with the complications for the messaging they do elsewhere. Russia certainly doesn't lack for windows.  

Edited August 21, 2022 by billbindc

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If correct, this indicates that the RU Nat problem is perceived as being pretty serious for Kremlin (as the oligarchs were obviously a perceived threat earlier in the war).  Otherwise I would have expected something out of the public eye or even one of those strangely worded statements out of Putin, Peskov, or other Kremlin official that we see from time to time.

Steve

In my humble opinion it is becoming very serious. I am seeing more and more RU Nats posts openly advising to stay away from RU army on account of incompetence and complete lack of care for cannon fodder.  

[cesmonkey]

From a cynical point-of-view, you would think the U.S. Air Force leadership would be screaming their head-offs urging POTUS to give A-10s to the Ukrainians.  They've been asking Congress for permission to retire them for years because they view them as obsolete.  If they were easily shot down by Russian fighters and air defense over Ukraine, they could smugly tell Congress, "I told you so!".

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My only quibble with this theory is that there's very little reason for the Kremlin to whip the Duginists into shape so publicly.

I think this hints at the seriousness of the problem.  It is more difficult to send a clear and strong message, quickly, through back channels (lower profile).  My thinking is those sorts of messages have already been sent and they have failed to quiet things down.  Looks to me that the Kremlin lost patience and doesn't think it has the time to do it with a lower profile (like false arrests).

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

From a cynical point-of-view, you would think the U.S. Air Force leadership would be screaming their head-offs urging POTUS to give A-10s to the Ukrainians.  They've been asking Congress for permission to retire them for years because they view them as obsolete.  If they were easily shot down by Russian fighters and air defense over Ukraine, they could smugly tell Congress, "I told you so!".

I heard USAF don't want to retire A-10 because then the Army might get them, and they don't want Army to operate fixed wing combat aircraft.

[MSBoxer]

12 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I heard USAF don't want to retire A-10 because then the Army might get them, and they don't want Army to operate fixed wing combat aircraft.

The USAF never wanted the A-10 and has been trying to kill the program for years.  It has only been saved by legislators forcing them to continue.  In the eyes of the Air Force CAS is secondary to their mission of air supremacy, flying fast and bombing the **** out of things.  Hence their proposed use of fighters/attack aircraft to fill those roles with secondary capability.

 

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this hints at the seriousness of the problem.  It is more difficult to send a clear and strong message, quickly, through back channels (lower profile).  My thinking is those sorts of messages have already been sent and they have failed to quiet things down.  Looks to me that the Kremlin lost patience and doesn't think it has the time to do it with a lower profile (like false arrests).

Steve

We'll know eventually. Either way, it's a loud notification that the system is less stable than it was 6 months ago.

[Cederic]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

You should have ended with "A10 sucks. Fight Me" 

 

 

I would nonetheless challenge your 'combat proven' claim. The US don't want it, don't need it, don't even plan to replace it - the F35 will be picking up its role; go in fast, deliver precision ordinance on the right target, get back out again in one piece.

Ukraine already has slow moving armoured weapons platforms, and they're not using them to attack artillery or tanks. Drones not helicopters. Drones not A-10. The world has moved on.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Cederic

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Like Russia, Ukraine has some pretty complicated internal problems with violent criminal activities and corruption that result in assassinations.

Steve

Besides what the Kyiv Independent tweeted I know literally nothing about this event but wouldn't it be more likely that Russia assassinated this SBU official? I know the Ukrainians are more than happy to take out FSB personal given the chance and I'm sure the Russians are just as happy to take out SBU personnel during this war.

Here is a video from an unrelated event showing Ukrainians using a drone to take out some FSB guys in Russia.

 

[Grigb]

Now I would like to catch up with some military staff. 

Previously I was asked if AFV-tanks are valuable/can be used in current UKR-RU Arty ping pong. I sniffed around and the answer is they are used more as long-range direct fire support and less as shock force. They are used as mobile protected long range direct fire support.

• Mobile - they can be held in a safe place and pop up in unexpected places then get away before retaliation. RU especially is having difficulty with hitting in timely manner unexpected tanks in unexpected positions 
• Protected  - blind arty fire cannot stop tanks (unlike jeeps with ATGMs)
• Long Range - tanks survive staying as far away from target as possible. Actually, it applies to every fire support weapon. Keep in mind that the majority of commercial drones have limited range and endurance. We are talking about 2 km from the frontline. So, if you find position let say 3 km from front line then you have up to 2.5 minutes (given 20 mps speed) before drone arrives on top of your head. With 10 rounds in carousel (see below) and 10 seconds per shot you will be long gone before drone will be able to bring pain.
• Direct fire - unlike arty tank can hit moving target or respond immediately to fleeting target

So, here is my impression on the entire process:

Tanks are kept in a safe place a few km back from the front line. Preferably in urban areas (one of the reasons current fights gravitate toward urban areas) - they park directly behind tall buildings, like this:

Obviously, NATO NLOS ATGM gunners must be trained to deal with these targets as per image above.

Next, based on intel and appreciation, tank commanders select several possible firing positions, preferably as far away from targets as possible (keyhole positions are the best). 

In case of defense, when enemy reaches desired kill zone tanks move to a required position. They quickly pin moving attackers so attackers lose momentum and the drone adjusted arty can crush them. Keep in mind that once attack momentum is lost drone adjusted arty will either annihilate attackers or attackers will run back to cover.

In case of attack tanks wait for assault groups to reach a specific point (often beaten zone of a strongpoint) then they move to the required position overwatching the strongpoint and either hit it or (if it was already hit sufficiently with arty) watch for any sudden enemy appearances, allowing assault group to move safely through the danger zone. 

To minimize the danger of fire tanks load as minimum ammo as possible. So, around 20 round carousel becomes 10 round carousel but it does not matter much as tanks spend little time on the frontline. On other hand once you have done a fire mission then even if enemy hit you, it is unlikely to cause catastrophic fire and loss of tank.

Keep in mind this is not a universal tactic. You can find RU regulars who are still using classical shock tactics (AFAIK they still trying it at Kharkiv direction). But I believe eventually they will adopt it just like they adopted commercial drones for arty.  

[FancyCat]

Dugin was rumored to supposed to be in the same car so I’m sure the impact of avoiding death, and the death of his loved one is more an impact on recent heart problems than a finishing attempt on him. That said, I don’t think Ukraine could pull off a 2nd hit after the one fails on the same person (assuming they would even want to kill him)

 

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Dugin was rumored to supposed to be in the same car so I’m sure the impact of avoiding death, and the death of his loved one is more an impact on recent heart problems than a finishing attempt on him. That said, I don’t think Ukraine could pull off a 2nd hit after the one fails on the same person (assuming they would even want to kill him)

 

So seems clear that the attempt was on Dugin and his daughter was collateral, w Dugin just getting lucky.  And hopefully won't recover from the stress.  Spend your life promoting sectarian violence and maybe one day you'll get a taste of it.

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So seems clear that the attempt was on Dugin and his daughter was collateral, w Dugin just getting lucky.  And hopefully won't recover from the stress.  Spend your life promoting sectarian violence and maybe one day you'll get a taste of it.

in a famous quote - The chickens come home to roost.

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

The USAF never wanted the A-10 and has been trying to kill the program for years.  It has only been saved by legislators forcing them to continue.  In the eyes of the Air Force CAS is secondary to their mission of air supremacy, flying fast and bombing the **** out of things.  Hence their proposed use of fighters/attack aircraft to fill those roles with secondary capability.

 

The USAF may not have but as a (at that time, when they were first introduced) US Army FIST Chief and "occasional controller when no FAC around" my response to it, as well as all my peers, was, "Holy *(%#&*, that thing is the BOMB!!" 

Of course that was quite a few years ago and the air environment has gotten more lethal. But man, when they first showed up.....

Dave

[MikeyD]

You can bomb and straff things with A-10s in CMCW, which is set more than 40 years ago (halfway between now and WWII). I recall at the time congress mandated the Pentagon conduct tests to see if the old WWII P51 Mustang was still a viable ground attack platform (it wasn't). Nostalgia over the 'mystique' of certain aircraft often outlive the aircraft themselves.