How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Doesn't mention the ammunition/stores at the locations of the craters... assumes SOF raid must have been during the day as opposed to the night before... doesn't explain multiple planes in revetments with some blast cover being destroyed... 

Not a thorough assessment I feel.

He did, though maybe not as thoroughly as we've discussed here.  Blast cover doesn't protect from falling debris and craters are not created by collective rounds going boom.  Craters are caused by a singular detonation, which is what this guy was focused on.  No way SOF could lug enough explosives there to create that sort of crater.  Plus, we have video evidence of the dumps going up all at once instead of cooking off, and that requires about the same amount of explosives that created the craters.

Steve

[fireship4]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

He did, though maybe not as thoroughly as we've discussed here.  Blast cover doesn't protect from falling debris and craters are not created by collective rounds going boom.  Craters are caused by a singular detonation, which is what this guy was focused on.  No way SOF could lug enough explosives there to create that sort of crater.  Plus, we have video evidence of the dumps going up all at once instead of cooking off, and that requires about the same amount of explosives that created the craters.

Steve

I don't think that all follows, to me it seems plausible that det cord or somesuch was used to wire up a bunch of the piles of ammo, explosives were placed on a number of planes, timers were set, and they went home.  Blast cover doesn't protect from falling debris yes but I don't know how likely that is to destroy (not simply damage) so many planes without leaving the place a wasteland.  Unless they had bombs on their racks, making it a bit more likely.

Edited August 19, 2022 by fireship4

[Letter from Prague]

Now I'm imagining bunch of Ukrainians in Russian uniforms dragging wheelbarrows of explosives to the airport while the security looks at them and thinks "eh, it's probably fine, I don't care enough to look into it".

[kraze]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hmm, not sure this matches observed history to be honest.  We had a conversation awhile back on Russia culture and it influence on this war and obviously there are some very strong opinions.

I don’t think it is easy to paint any culture in one monotone colour, internal divisions and stressors exist in far more closed cultures that Russia (eg NK), it is human nature.  We in North America have a proud tradition of lemming [I know it is a myth but just put that aside: insert Marlin Perkins meme] behaviours.  Ours come from religion and sub-cultures - we convinced ourselves that slavery was a good idea and that God supported it- that have been just as restrictive as any autocratic government.  In fact these “norms” can be more tyrannical than any one leader - plenty of evidence of that.  Also there is the fact that Russia has had 2 major revolutions and a pretty nasty Civil War in 20th century, so I am not all onboard that they are “sheeple”.

I do believe that Russia appears to have a bit of an addiction to autocrats, democracy has never really stuck in that nation.  We discussed this previously and I don’t think there was a consensus as to why.  I suspect Russians are a product of their environment, so a weird collection of outsiders who have been invaded repeatedly likely has a role to play in them embracing strongmen leaders.

Regardless, based on history the Russians can definitely “awaken” and pretty violently.  The real question is “what will it take for that to happen?”, followed by “does this insane war qualify?”.  And then finally, “do we need to help that happen sooner than later?”

There's no consensus because one takes russian self-invented history at face value. And then wonders why nothing makes sense.

However if one is to draw Russia's roots not from (semi)republic that was Rus (to which it has zero relation) but to Golden Horde as the initial point and go from there up till now - you suddenly realize that 100% of russian history is serfdom. They have zero clue what democracy is, their culture only knew violent dictatorship.

Historians easily accept that stolen "Roman Empire" of barbaric Germanic tribes was indeed stolen and nobody questions any point in German history because of that. But not accepting Peter I and his exiled Germans that invented Russia and Romanov dynasty doing the same is what leads to this mess.

[chuckdyke]

More for the German speakers, found it interesting the German Infantry has much in common with the US. Split in Motorized Infantry, Marines, Rangers, Paratroopers and Special Forces. 

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 

[FancyCat]

Continuing from their earlier reporting, WP has reported on the FSB’s failure to accurately judge the Ukrainian resistance. interestingly, late January, Ukrainian security picked up chatter between the VDV and FSB that was considered join operation planning, a sign of the assault on Hostomel.

Also, Russian unpreparedness for the invasion, did confuse Ukraine, as the SZR sent recon teams to check the forward units across the border and found them not ready for invasion. A lot more info than this in the article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/

 

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by FancyCat

[Letter from Prague]

Guy who played orc in Lord of the Rings asks to stop comparing Russians to orcs because orcs are proud warriors who don't steal washing machines.

[Huba]

Kamikaze drone for individual soldier, even more compact than Switchblade 300, fired from 40mm grenade launcher.

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Huba

[womble]

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Now I'm imagining bunch of Ukrainians in Russian uniforms dragging wheelbarrows of explosives to the airport while the security looks at them and thinks "eh, it's probably fine, I don't care enough to look into it".

This makes me wonder whether the necessary quantity of HE could've been driven onto base by UKR SOF using faked Russian bonafides, and parked up or even unloaded as "legitimate resupply", all detcorded together to go off at once on either a timer or by radio control... Would "enough" HE make the wreckage of trucks undetectable at the crater locations? How much time would the subterfuge have had to have bought to allow the commandos to offload their little presents?

Or could the SOF demo guys have arranged the "initiator" explosion from the ordnance already stored in place, cleverly combined together to make big enough boom?

[Thomm]

I wonder if belay glasses for climbers would be helpful for spotting stuff hovering directly above an observer.

Best regards
Thomm

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey look at what a US Navy SEAL came up with:

I'm pretty pleased I came to the same conclusion the day after the attack happened.

The one thing I think the SEAL got wrong is the weapon used.  The craters seem to be too big for what ATACAMS packs.  We've also seen plenty of other HIMARS attacks and the resulting explosions were of a very different character.  So either what was blown up at this base was significantly different, and therefore reacted differently, or it was hit by something other than ATACMS. 

To me the debate is between ATACMS or Hrim-2.  Whatever it was, I hope Ukraine has a lot more of them.

Steve

I would exercise a lot of caution here:

-Someone says they are SOF - it is the internet buyer beware

-A SOF operator has expertise but does not have all the expertise.  In the west we have elevated these guys well beyond their actual jobs and skill sets.  The internet is filled with “bros” with SF tabs spewing a lot of garbage but because they have “SOF Combat Veteran” in the splash title page so they “must know all about logistics”.  

-BDA is a multidisciplinary activity, the US military has an actual trade occupation of “targeting”.  I would put far more stock in a targeteer assessment than a door-kicker.

- The fact that this was not a Direct Action (DA) mission was obvious from the start.  The idea that the UA sent in a 30 pers ground team that deep behind enemy lines, well out of range of support, in broad daylight is nonsense.  Further, the idea that they humped 1000-1500 lbs of HE is insane.  However, none of this eliminates the use of SOF in this, or any other attack.

- If this was SOF (and I say if, I do not know one way or the other, but I have a suspicion), it was likely a black bag sabotage job, or a complex attack.  If it were sabotage then they would have infiltrated the airfield, could have been local workers or even RA.  They would have placed and wired the charges onto large warheads - this is technical btw- and then either had a timer or an LOS controlled detonator.  The initial warheads hit very likely had enough NEQ to do the craters, and then set off the secondaries.  Again, IF, very hard to tell from Sat photos posted on twitter.

-This could have very well been ATACMS, a SOF/partisan loitering munition or combination of all that, without detailed assessment of the crater this is impossible to rule out.

- The lack of missile or drones on video streams for any of these weird “cigarette missions” is telling;however, also not definitive.  All we really know is that some very high value targets are being prosecuted beyond what we - and more importantly the Russians - thought was the maximum range of UA capability…and that is all good no matter how it happened.

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by The_Capt

[poesel]

13 hours ago, Huba said:

 

I'd like to point out that this very interesting graph has also a very interesting scaling on the x-axis. Neither linear nor logarithmic. If it was scaled like the Ukrainian dot, the width would be about 4x. Puts some 'scale' into WWII.

 

10 hours ago, sburke said:

on the artillery question.  Even assuming they have all those shells, and they are the right kind, and they are in good shape AND they are accesssible..... what about the tubes themselves?  What is the perspective on how long Russian can keep firing before they are just too worn out and start having technical boom difficulties?

That is answered on the lower right: 23.4 months.

This data doesn't take corruption and graft into account. I guess we can safely deduct at least 20% from these numbers.

But there is also this line about the 108 million shells from Soviet times, which are deemed obsolete and can only be used with 'some risk'.
I doubt anyone here will take a bet against the Russians happily taking that risk. So I don't think the Russians will run out of ammo anytime soon, but there is a difference between 'having' ammo and being able to use it.
 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, poesel said:

 

I'd like to point out that this very interesting graph has also a very interesting scaling on the x-axis. Neither linear nor logarithmic. If it was scaled like the Ukrainian dot, the width would be about 4x. Puts some 'scale' into WWII.

 

That is answered on the lower right: 23.4 months.

This data doesn't take corruption and graft into account. I guess we can safely deduct at least 20% from these numbers.

But there is also this line about the 108 million shells from Soviet times, which are deemed obsolete and can only be used with 'some risk'.
I doubt anyone here will take a bet against the Russians happily taking that risk. So I don't think the Russians will run out of ammo anytime soon, but there is a difference between 'having' ammo and being able to use it.
 

Looks like solid evidence that precision beats mass.  Ukraine has not only stopped Russia dead in its tracks they have wrestled operational initiative away from them utilizing a fraction of the firepower.

Edited August 19, 2022 by The_Capt

[poesel]

Germany will supply 255 shells of Vulcano ammunition for the Pzh2000 and the Italian FH70.
The shells have a range of 70 km at 1 m precision. Ukraine will get the GPS version, the Bundeswehr the laser guided version (in 2025). The bigger range comes at a cost of a lesser charge.

http://soldat-und-technik.de/2022/08/bewaffnung/32586/praezisionsgelenkte-vulcano-artilleriemunition/

Some more info about Vulcano in English:

https://navalpost.com/vulcano-restores-the-importance-of-gun-systems/

https://www.difesa.it/SGD-DNA/Staff/DT/NAVARM/Vulcano-EN/Pagine/default.aspx

Edited August 19, 2022 by poesel

[Billy Ringo]

At what point does Russia diminish their weapons/artillery stockpile as to endanger themselves from other more predatory organizations or countries?   It's interesting to theoretically estimate how long Russian artillery will last in Ukraine, but shouldn't their be some internal threshold that says--below this we are putting ourselves in grave danger?

Russia has already diminished their ability to project global power.  (Reduced manpower, exposed serious flaws and weaknesses in both execution and weapons capabilities, economic devastation, etc.)   But if they keep this up much longer they would seem to be inviting those who hold a grudge to start pushing back in other places.   Do they simply assume that because of their nukes no one will consider picking off pieces of their perimeter?  Or even China taking larger chunks in the East?

This isn't just about Ukraine in the short term.  Is there anyone in Russia thinking 5-10 years down the road?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

At what point does Russia diminish their weapons/artillery stockpile as to endanger themselves from other more predatory organizations or countries?   It's interesting to theoretically estimate how long Russian artillery will last in Ukraine, but shouldn't their be some internal threshold that says--below this we are putting ourselves in grave danger?

Russia has already diminished their ability to project global power.  (Reduced manpower, exposed serious flaws and weaknesses in both execution and weapons capabilities, economic devastation, etc.)   But if they keep this up much longer they would seem to be inviting those who hold a grudge to start pushing back in other places.   Do they simply assume that because of their nukes no one will consider picking off pieces of their perimeter?  Or even China taking larger chunks in the East?

This isn't just about Ukraine in the short term.  Is there anyone in Russia thinking 5-10 years down the road?

Given the paranoia displayed from the political level, one would think the threshold is an ability to fend off a NATO "attack".  But given the mixed and contrary signals coming from the power bases, who knows if the Russians actually believe that, or are just going to rely on the nuclear option.

More pragmatically, the threshold should be the level when they can no longer sustain defensive operations in the areas that have taken since 2014.  They will be well and truly screwed if the primary mechanism they have to keep the UA from invading Russian territory is the nuclear equation and diplomatic pressure from the west, especially if they start playing fast and loose with nuclear power plants. 

[Letter from Prague]

I would almost expect the opposite. If what Grigb said about Russian internal politics being mostly about FSB vs Military/Nationalists vs "Liberals", weakening the armed forces might be important to make the possible nationalist coup less likely.

[hcrof]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62602367

Quote

What, then, is the risk to this nuclear plant which houses six reactors and is Europe facing a Fukushima-type meltdown?

 

"I wouldn't be too worried," says Mark Wenman, head of the Centre for Doctoral Training in Nuclear Energy Futures. "Zaporizhzhia was built in the 1980s, which is relatively modern. It has a solid containment building. It's 1.75m (5.75ft) thick, of heavily reinforced concrete on a seismic bed, and it takes a hell of a lot to breach that."

According to the article, damage to the transmission lines are the biggest risk that may cause overheating because that energy has to go somewhere. But the reactor has been set up to hopefully safely shut down in that event, using the existing diesel generators for power during this time.

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey look at what a US Navy SEAL came up with:

I'm pretty pleased I came to the same conclusion the day after the attack happened.

The one thing I think the SEAL got wrong is the weapon used.  The craters seem to be too big for what ATACAMS packs.  We've also seen plenty of other HIMARS attacks and the resulting explosions were of a very different character.  So either what was blown up at this base was significantly different, and therefore reacted differently, or it was hit by something other than ATACMS. 

To me the debate is between ATACMS or Hrim-2.  Whatever it was, I hope Ukraine has a lot more of them.

Steve

Does he account of the effect on plausible sized C4 charges left opportunistically on ammunition stockpiles? 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

 

I'd like to point out that this very interesting graph has also a very interesting scaling on the x-axis. Neither linear nor logarithmic. If it was scaled like the Ukrainian dot, the width would be about 4x. Puts some 'scale' into WWII.

 

That is answered on the lower right: 23.4 months.

This data doesn't take corruption and graft into account. I guess we can safely deduct at least 20% from these numbers.

But there is also this line about the 108 million shells from Soviet times, which are deemed obsolete and can only be used with 'some risk'.
I doubt anyone here will take a bet against the Russians happily taking that risk. So I don't think the Russians will run out of ammo anytime soon, but there is a difference between 'having' ammo and being able to use it.
 

Is there an assessment out there that looks at gun barrel depletion in relation to ammunition expenditure for the Russian army? 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

More for the German speakers, found it interesting the German Infantry has much in common with the US. Split in Motorized Infantry, Marines, Rangers, Paratroopers and Special Forces. 

 

And they have an entire reinforced company of each. Which is cool, but doesn't really make a terribly coherent regiment. Only sort of kidding.

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Given the paranoia displayed from the political level, one would think the threshold is an ability to fend off a NATO "attack".  But given the mixed and contrary signals coming from the power bases, who knows if the Russians actually believe that, or are just going to rely on the nuclear option.

More pragmatically, the threshold should be the level when they can no longer sustain defensive operations in the areas that have taken since 2014.  They will be well and truly screwed if the primary mechanism they have to keep the UA from invading Russian territory is the nuclear equation and diplomatic pressure from the west, especially if they start playing fast and loose with nuclear power plants. 

If I may both saddle up one of my little hobby horses, and make an observation that is quite relevant, BELARUS. If Putin pushes his army to utter, absolute, disintegrating failure Lukshenko will go down to some combination of internal rebellion and Ukrainian intervention. It would allow the Ukrainians to inflict a truly paradigm altering defeat on the Russians without crossing the big red line that is the Russian border.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Is there an assessment out there that looks at gun barrel depletion in relation to ammunition expenditure for the Russian army? 

This was addressed in the same thread/article, and the answer was in the same general area of more than a year, but not forever. It is even less precise because you have to make assumptions about the state of the stored guns/barrels.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I would exercise a lot of caution here:

-Someone says they are SOF - it is the internet buyer beware

Always cautious, but the Twitter account is an unambiguous name with unambiguous claims that link to a real guy who is verifiable:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Pfarrer

That box is checked

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

-A SOF operator has expertise but does not have all the expertise.  In the west we have elevated these guys well beyond their actual jobs and skill sets.  The internet is filled with “bros” with SF tabs spewing a lot of garbage but because they have “SOF Combat Veteran” in the splash title page so they “must know all about logistics”.  

Yup.  And sometimes these guys miss pretty obvious stuff.  The video linked to a bunch of pages ago done by a well known YouTube ex-US Army guy, who was convinced it was SOF, hadn't looked at the videos of the explosions and that knocked some significant holes in his theories.  So even if his service record gave him the experience to know this or that, he lacked some pretty basic analytical skills that were pretty important.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

-BDA is a multidisciplinary activity, the US military has an actual trade occupation of “targeting”.  I would put far more stock in a targeteer assessment than a door-kicker.

This is my self-admitted gray area in my assessments.  I'm not a professional trained in BDA, so I could be missing something from my analysis that explains the primary piece of evidence that this was a missile strike.  Namely, the full involvement of all the dump's munitions in one go.  I'm pretty comfortable with my conclusions based on what I do know, it's just that I know I don't know everything

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- The fact that this was not a Direct Action (DA) mission was obvious from the start.  The idea that the UA sent in a 30 pers ground team that deep behind enemy lines, well out of range of support, in broad daylight is nonsense.  Further, the idea that they humped 1000-1500 lbs of HE is insane.  However, none of this eliminates the use of SOF in this, or any other attack.

Oh for sure.  At a minimum I suspect they did something to disrupt air defenses.  NOTHING has been reported about this either way, but it seems logical and would be an absolutely perfect text book use of SOF.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- If this was SOF (and I say if, I do not know one way or the other, but I have a suspicion), it was likely a black bag sabotage job, or a complex attack.  If it were sabotage then they would have infiltrated the airfield, could have been local workers or even RA.  They would have placed and wired the charges onto large warheads - this is technical btw- and then either had a timer or an LOS controlled detonator.  The initial warheads hit very likely had enough NEQ to do the craters, and then set off the secondaries.  Again, IF, very hard to tell from Sat photos posted on twitter.

Entirely possible.  Using the explosives that are there is definitely the way they would have gone.  However, this would then assume they had the time and opportunity to place them all.  I imagine that would likely involve cracking open a few dozen crates.  Again, given the probably crappy Russian security that opportunity was possible.  Plenty of open field to approach from as well.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

-This could have very well been ATACMS, a SOF/partisan loitering munition or combination of all that, without detailed assessment of the crater this is impossible to rule out.

I don't think ATACMS has the amount of explosives to do it on its own.  Loitering munitions is also too small and would have had to negotiate all that smoke after the first explosion.  The accuracy of the hits would likely not have been perfect as it was in that case.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- The lack of missile or drones on video streams for any of these weird “cigarette missions” is telling;however, also not definitive.  All we really know is that some very high value targets are being prosecuted beyond what we - and more importantly the Russians - thought was the maximum range of UA capability…and that is all good no matter how it happened.

 

Yup, another strike against drones is they would have been visually and likely audibly recorded on the videos.  Missiles with super sonic terminal velocity, however, would not have been picked up from that range by simple shaky hand held cellphones.

Anyway, it is all speculation.  I'm still keeping an open mind about this, but I think the hits themselves were most likely Hrim-2.  I also suspect that Ukraine doesn't have any more in inventory or so few that we're unlikely to see another strike like this any time soon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Does he account of the effect on plausible sized C4 charges left opportunistically on ammunition stockpiles? 

 

No, which is kinda weird without some sort of explanation as to why he ruled it out.  We've all seen enough spy/SOF ops in movies to have thought of this possibility, so maybe there's some reason we're not aware of that his SEAL experience informs him that it wouldn't be used.

I do find his analysis of the destruction of the planes being blast effects quite plausible.  He didn't even mention the fact that if SOF was running around with a mission to blow up planes they did a crappy job of it as most were untouched even though they were within an easy jog of the area of focus.

Steve