How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Why running trains inside GMLRS range is not practical. Looks like just one round was fired:

 

[DesertFox]

Another hypersonic cigarette butt ?...

 

 

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

When talking about people who suffered under Soviet rule, many seem to forget that Eastern Germany (aka former GDR) was no less under Soviet rule. Strangely though, support for Putin is especially strong in Eastern Germany. So there has to be more to it that just having suffered from the Soviets.

Of course there is more. Former lands of Eastern Germany is by far only place in Europe (maybe except Greece and Albania) where local politician can still build his career on post-Soviet sentiments (or post-Prussian ones; AfD is also very strong there for a reason, right?). While almost everywhere else Soviets are rigthly viewed as barbaric hordes responsible for mass murder and -at best -decade-long misery of whole societies, somehow many ossi still seem to cherish this past.

Reasons are probably quite diverse. "Yes-sir!" militaristic, hierarchical Prussian (not uniquely German) mentallity is definitelly one of main causes. Four decades of conditioning on darwinistic notion that "might is right"-common to both fascism and communism- is another. Add physical Russians influence, shockingly large scale of Stasi surveillance, wide business connections and business/politicla elites that are one leg in Moskow. And myriad other things.

I read several books about it and spoke with some persons there, but I must admit still this phenomenon of sympathy for Russia/Soviets in former Eastern Germany escapes my imagination. Just as why DDR was only communist state in which things generally tend to work- not in intended way ofc, but comparatively better than in all other barracks behind the Iron Curtain.

 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

According to Politico, the Biden Administration has reaffirmed Ukraine can attack targets inside her de jure borders using NATO provided weapons, including Crimea, so maybe Ukraine might start taking responsibility for the blasts ongoing in Crimea? (Maybe not, easy trolling instead)

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/08/17/u-s-approves-of-ukraine-striking-russian-occupied-crimea-00052364

 

[FancyCat]

22 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Another hypersonic cigarette butt ?...

 

 

bushfire probably. 

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

59 minutes ago, Huba said:

Why running trains inside GMLRS range is not practical. Looks like just one round was fired:

 

Putin made trains run on time!

Disclaimer: the time is HIMARS o'clock.

 

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Of course there is more. Former lands of Eastern Germany is by far only place in Europe (maybe except Greece and Albania) where local politician can still build his career on post-Soviet sentiments (or post-Prussian ones; AfD is also very strong there for a reason, right?). While almost everywhere else Soviets are rigthly viewed as barbaric hordes responsible for mass murder and -at best -decade-long misery of whole societies, somehow many ossi still seem to cherish this past.

Reasons are probably quite diverse. "Yes-sir!" militaristic, hierarchical Prussian (not uniquely German) mentallity is definitelly one of main causes. Four decades of conditioning on darwinistic notion that "might is right"-common to both fascism and communism- is another. Add physical Russians influence, shockingly large scale of Stasi surveillance, wide business connections and business/politicla elites that are one leg in Moskow. And myriad other things.

I read several books about it and spoke with some persons there, but I must admit still this phenomenon of sympathy for Russia/Soviets in former Eastern Germany escapes my imagination. Just as why DDR was only communist state in which things generally tend to work- not in intended way ofc, but comparatively better than in all other barracks behind the Iron Curtain.

 

I think things generally worked better as you go West, as Central Europe was much more developed, industrialised and less poor even before WW2.

But Czechs remember Prague Spring, and Poles have a long list of things to remember of Soviet Friendship as well, so that leaves the DDR as the least messed up place I think.

At the same time, around here it's also ... suspicious. The Communist Party of Czechoslovakia renamed itself to Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia in 1990 while keeping the Stalinist tradition and yet it was elected to Parliament every elections since (hanging around 10 to 15 % voters) up until last year when they finally ****ed off as their voters either died off or switched to Nazis or populists.

Not banning that party in 1990 was obviously a mistake.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, kraze said:

It may be much simpler that that. Why waste lives (and huge cash) on a country that does not want to change and does not want you there? As was clearly proven by an instant collapse when the big guy was out - everybody rushed towards supporting and joining Taliban.

Real "Mission Accomplished" was at least a decade ago. Staying in Afghanistan was only helping people that cope with reality by thinking that dictators run the show and not people put dictators in power, hence why people need somebody else to depose that one for them and guide them to Democracy, Liberty and Freedom.

And I am quite certain that is how Biden felt about it for most of that decade. But I still think the trigger for pulling the band aid off and getting it over with when we did and how we did was the near certainty the situation with Russia and Ukraine heating up. It was a significant short term political hit, and was opposed by a lot of people who just couldn't get past the sunk cost fallacy.

How to turn a badly run country into a decently run country is literally the hardest question in human history. One of the worst underlying barbarities of Putin's war is that it is basically an attempt to block Ukraine from doing exactly that. And providing that example to a world that needs it rather badly.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

At the same time, around here it's also ... suspicious. The Communist Party of Czechoslovakia renamed itself to Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia in 1990 while keeping the Stalinist tradition and yet it was elected to Parliament every elections since (hanging around 10 to 15 % voters) up until last year when they finally ****ed off as their voters either died off or switched to Nazis or populists.

Not banning that party in 1990 was obviously a mistake.

Well, PZPR (Polish United Workers Party) changed it's name to SLD ( Alliance of Democratic Left) and was even in power for a few terms in late nineties/ early 2000s. And IIRC they didn't make it to the Sejm only in this (and maybe previous) term. I'd think this is quite typical to most ex WarPac countries. End of off-topic

[Kinophile]

Just when we want an actual local's perspective, its probably too dangerous for  @L0ckAndL0adto comment ...

[mosuri]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

 

There have been some good parodies of the VDV propaganda song, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzK1gl6UoM0 , maybe the meme corps can come up with one for the Spetsial Nazis as well?

[billbindc]

49 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And I am quite certain that is how Biden felt about it for most of that decade. But I still think the trigger for pulling the band aid off and getting it over with when we did and how we did was the near certainty the situation with Russia and Ukraine heating up. It was a significant short term political hit, and was opposed by a lot of people who just couldn't get past the sunk cost fallacy.

How to turn a badly run country into a decently run country is literally the hardest question in human history. One of the worst underlying barbarities of Putin's war is that it is basically an attempt to block Ukraine from doing exactly that. And providing that example to a world that needs it rather badly.

It’s a matter of record that Biden was pretty stridently for not doing the surge in 2009 and pulling out shortly thereafter. It wasn’t news then because he was very clear with WH staff that he would bury anyone who embarrassed the Obama administration by making his disagreement public. So it’s fair to say he was ready to do it in policy terms and with a son who died at least tangentially from service in the region, he felt it was a moral imperative to do it as well.

All of that said, I don’t think the Afghan pullout was done in reaction to Russia’s plans for Ukraine as the withdrawal was in progress well before Putin’s intentions were clear. But…there may be an argument that the one distracted from the other in the sense that the Biden teams was looking well past Afghanistan while the rest of Washington was still caught up in it. That’s my personal take and it will be awhile before the inside story will become publicly available.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It is worth to read this article by Kyiv Independent about criminal commander of International Legion. There were before many informations from fighters about this kind of problems in part of the unit that was subordinate to GUR. It is unfortunate that "top", including people from Zhelenksy entourage, were reportedly not interested in checking and correcting how things were going there. Now we have scandal.

On one side, Russian propaganda have a Christma present. On the other, it shows that independent journalism is well in Ukraine; publishing such article would be impossible in Russian press.

https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

Someone posted this a few days ago but I just got around to reading it.  Depressing read, but unfortunately not a shock.  Ukraine still has a lot of Soviet practices to work out of its system and, unfortunately, Zelensky's track record on anti-corruption is not great.  Getting better, though.

What is kinda surprising to me is why the GUR and Zelensky's office would put up with such an obviously incompetent, as well as criminal (not even a Ukrainian one!), being in charge of what could be a crack military unit.  That is what baffles me.  Not only that, it's full of soldiers who are more likely to make it public than, for example, a TD unit.  And because it is the International Legion, it is going to get a lot more attention the press.  Eventually international press.

Contrast this with a scenario where a corrupt and/or incompetent Ukrainian Army officer, with the technical credentials to command the Legion, being put in charge.  He might be as bad, but at least it would be more obvious why he was there in the first place.  Putting an organized crime figure with no military background from a foreign country in charge of a military unit is just... well... so Russian.

Hopefully this will get worked out soon now that it's received higher exposure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Still no visuals or reports on the various Kherson bridges, eh?  I'm guessing Russia FINALLY decided to stop people from taking and uploading videos demonstrating just how thoroughly f'd they are.  Which makes sense, because that last nighttime strike video pretty clearly shows a span dropping into the water.  That definitely undermines Russia's statements that the bridges would be repaired shortly.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Hi All,

Sorry for yet another thread sidetrack but to update re @Haiduk's laptop etc:

It's arrived here in Canada at long last. I'll post photos when my phone recharges.

The funds raised came to about $1700 so we've gotten a Laptop for Haiduk's wife and major pc part upgrades for his own PC. Those I will be buying today/tomorrow.

I'll be sending everything to Przemsyl in Poland, with a reliable family member who lives there, on this Monday coming, Aug 22nd.

They'll hand off to someone Haiduk sends to pick up during that week.

If the UKR Law is relaxed a bit then maybe he can pick it up in person, we'll see.

 

POSTSCRIPT

This process has been badly delayed on my end, due to a heavy couple of months for me, personally and work-wise. Especially the personal side. It's been...difficult...to focus outside the household for a while. But things have finally stabilised, the laptop is here beside me and the pc parts are a short walk away to buy, once Haiduk confirms his choices. Everything is moving forward again.

 

[akd]

These illustrations from a VDV textbook on urban warfare look oddly familiar…

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

These illustrations from a VDV textbook on urban warfare look oddly familiar…

 

LOL!  Sad, looks like they could only afford CMx1 - Steve, you might want to get a press release out to explain that BFC did not violate international sanctions. 

[danfrodo]

AKD -- what is ZSU??  I love it when jomini clearly states russian & ukraine then uses some acronym to say one side is attacking.  I am guessing ZSU is Ukraine?

[akd]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

AKD -- what is ZSU??  I love it when jomini clearly states russian & ukraine then uses some acronym to say one side is attacking.  I am guessing ZSU is Ukraine?

Yes, ZSU is Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think things generally worked better as you go West, as Central Europe was much more developed, industrialised and less poor even before WW2.

East Germany was treated relatively well during my time in Berlin.  Proximity to the prosperous West Germany made it hard to disguise how well off the west was compared to communist east, Berlin in particular was a thorn in the side of communists.

Since it was impossible to hide the truth, the leaders attempted to match as much as possible to the determent of areas/countries farther east.

We must also bear in mind that sheer number of soviet military bases provided a massive economic boost to the East German Economy.

The result is that when the wall came down and after the eventual re-unification, many portions of East Germany were better off, but then soon suffered when the Soviet bases closed down and economic support from Russia stopped.

They quickly fell farther behind, instead of immediately matching their western counterparts they slide deeper and this caused much resentment initially.

I believe that this only helped the growth of soviet nostalgia and Russian support.

[danfrodo]

 

@JominiW

Replying to @JominiW

10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian & Ukrainian artillery are engaged in a duel to cause maximum damage to command posts, critical infrastructure, supply & ammo depots, key lines of communication, and air defense systems ahead of a highly anticipated ZSU counteroffensive. #Kherson

(above from AKD post)

 

THis is what I wanna see.  UKR forcing RU to burn through it's arty ammo, knowing it can't get replace w the bridges out.  

 

[FancyCat]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Someone posted this a few days ago but I just got around to reading it.  Depressing read, but unfortunately not a shock.  Ukraine still has a lot of Soviet practices to work out of its system and, unfortunately, Zelensky's track record on anti-corruption is not great.  Getting better, though.

What is kinda surprising to me is why the GUR and Zelensky's office would put up with such an obviously incompetent, as well as criminal (not even a Ukrainian one!), being in charge of what could be a crack military unit.  That is what baffles me.  Not only that, it's full of soldiers who are more likely to make it public than, for example, a TD unit.  And because it is the International Legion, it is going to get a lot more attention the press.  Eventually international press.

Contrast this with a scenario where a corrupt and/or incompetent Ukrainian Army officer, with the technical credentials to command the Legion, being put in charge.  He might be as bad, but at least it would be more obvious why he was there in the first place.  Putting an organized crime figure with no military background from a foreign country in charge of a military unit is just... well... so Russian.

Hopefully this will get worked out soon now that it's received higher exposure.

Steve

Probably busy. Also note that it's not just one officer, it's probably a whole cabal covering for each other. Let's be honest, theres no shortage of dirtbag leadership in any military, U.S included. This is not Russian exclusive. Allegations of organized crime, ties to gangs, abusive leadership do occur and get busted time to time in the U.S and this even occurs in mid-level leadership. Luckily, hopefully in Ukraine, this story breaking out will firmly cause resolution to occur.

[Battlefront.com]

I good OpEd piece that very nicely and succinctly describes Russia's current situation in Ukraine and how it got to be that way:

Quote

In Vietnam, Afghanistan and many other conflicts, the stronger power lost because it could not win, and the weaker power triumphed simply because it did not lose. So shall it be in Ukraine, where the same process is playing out rapidly.

In less than six months, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice has had catastrophic consequences — for Russia itself. It has resulted in at least 60,000 Russian casualties, more than the total number of fatalities suffered during the 10-year Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. It has led to a long-term Russian loss of political influence and energy leverage in the West. It has helped resuscitate the NATO alliance, which just a few years ago seemed to be on its last legs. And it has inflicted severe, long-term damage on the Russian economy, effectively erasing all of the gains made since the Soviet Union’s collapse.

And what has Russia gotten for this? Only a few more slivers of land in Ukraine — land that the Kremlin may not be able to hold for very long.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3606352-putins-on-the-brink/

One bit in this piece reminded me of something we talked about weeks ago:

Quote

But what is perhaps Putin’s most dangerous “bad bet” is now unfolding. With the destruction of the bridges necessary to resupply and/or reinforce them, the estimated 20,000 Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River are trapped, effectively surrounded by Ukrainian forces without the capability to break out or to fight for any extended period of time. Putin did not reposition these troops when he had the chance to do so, effectively leaving them stranded.

We discussed the obviously deliberate damaging of the bridges when it was clear that Ukraine had the ability to effectively destroy their usability.  We talked about the possible reasons for this, the leading one I remember was that Ukraine was hoping Russia would withdraw instead of forcing a battle there.  Withdrawal would have been the smart thing to do, but since Russia doesn't do smart the forces remain.

It's pretty clear to me now that, indeed, Ukraine decided to "offer" Russia an opportunity to withdraw and within the last week revoked that "offer".  If Russia had withdrawn it would have likely lost quite a bit of its heavy equipment and supplies. Significant casualties would have been suffered as well, since fighting withdrawals are almost always casualty intensive for the defender if the attacker has sufficient forces (and Ukraine definitely does).  For sure many Russian soldiers would escape, but the battle would have been overly fairly quickly with Ukraine getting a huge propaganda victory for very little sacrifice.  I can see why Ukraine (probably) pursued this strategy.

I'm still as uncertain about what comes next now as I was weeks ago.  Ukraine is definitely playing this one differently than I'd expect.  Even when trying to put myself in their shoes.

At a minimum I think Ukraine wants to give the average Russian soldier some time to feel the squeeze (infrequent food, ammo, and fuel deliveries) before significant attacks start.  That seems reasonable and psychologically effective.  The best time to attack is when your enemy already thinks it is defeated.  Hungry, short on ammo, and less frequent artillery support is a good way to do that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

LOL!  Sad, looks like they could only afford CMx1 - Steve, you might want to get a press release out to explain that BFC did not violate international sanctions. 

Holy crap!  Well, fire up the legal team fella's... it's time to sue the VDV for copyright violations!

Seriously... wow

Steve

[Combatintman]

From this forum's Kabul correspondent ... let's well and truly bury the Afghan thing.  As is generally the case, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one.  The timelines were simply those dictated by the February 2020 US-Taliban Agreement.  Biden arrived in office with a short timeline in which to take the decision to follow through with the withdrawal commitment in the US-Taliban Agreement.  The decision was announced on April 14, 2021.  According to the Washington Post article:

"Just weeks before the essay appeared, Biden and Putin had held a June 16 summit that both declared was “constructive.” At that point, Ukraine was a concern, but one that White House officials felt could be dealt with. As the White House delegation left the meeting, held in Geneva, a senior Biden aide would later recall, “we didn’t get on the plane and come home and think the world was on the cusp of a major war in Europe.”

The article states that it wasn't until October that the US was confident enough in its assessment that Russia would attack to take it to the President or put another way, sometime after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C-17 in Kabul.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Combatintman

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  Well, fire up the legal team fella's... it's time to sue the VDV for copyright violations!

Seriously... wow

Steve

offer them a free copy of Black Sea with only one scenario -  that thing you mentioned about having an infantry force with a crapload of javelins.

Edited August 18, 2022 by sburke