How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

No point SOF-ing around when you can just give Sergei a bag of rubles in exchange for a night-time wander about the flight line.

Except the part where Sergie then double crosses you and sells you back to Russian security for another bag of rubbles.  Much better to put a bullet into Sergie's vodka soaked brain and vaporize him when the whole show goes up.

It comes from the observations so far that:

 - The UA is not supposed to have a high trajectory/high speed missile with this range (but might).

- No reports of a cruise missile, which is odd given the daylight nature of the strike.

- No UA aircraft reported.

- Russian fire safety "whoopsie" does not match the numbers or dispersion of craters.

So people are thinking SOF action.  Pretty long shot from where I am sitting, but is it possible?  Sure. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I'm firmly on the side of some kind of missile...

... but I'm not sure where all this SOF stuff is coming from.

We're talking about a society where a destroyer captain sold the propeller off his ship (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-navy-captain-stole-ships-13-tonne-propellers-m5vxkhvb3). No point SOF-ing around when you can just give Sergei a bag of rubles in exchange for a night-time wander about the flight line.

That's the kind of thing that would be in some kind of joke about corruption, yet there it is.  Too fun.  But great point on how easy it would be to bribe in such a corrupt system.  Or maybe the guards were conscripted men that don't want to be occupied by russia.  Or both.

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, Huba said:

If it was indeed an attack by kamikaze drones (or drone recon - strike package more probably), doing it during the day was probably a prerequisite due to lack of night vision optics in the very small drones like Switchblade 300.
Another point is that attacking it in the middle of the day added the psychological angle of spooking all the beach goers.

There's too many things contradicting a drone attack.  The craters were created by something, and it certainly wasn't a Switchblade 300.  Drones are notorious for being spotted, if only because of audio.  Nobody has come forward to seven say, not to mention present evidence, that drones were involved.  Even if a drone was used, there's no way it could carry the sort of explosive power necessary to detonate an entire stock of bombs instantaneously.  That takes significant power.  With all that smoke kicked up it's unlikely subsequent strikes would have found their targets.  And lastly, the two simultaneous strikes would be quite unlikely with drones.

As for the SOF possibility, there is a lot going for it.  The facilities weren't explicitly guarded (the two bunkers have double fences, these none), Russian security is notoriously insecure, there's plenty of places to approach from (especially at night), remote detonated charges could be planted and then triggered hours later, US could provide realtime sat intel, and other things.

What works against this theory is uniform craters and need to have huge explosives for everything to go up at once.  Things would also have to go perfectly.

Possible?  Yes.  Probable?  Not as much as Hrim-2, especially because there were other attacks outside of previously known Ukrainian range.  But if Hrim-2 is not responsible for whatever reason, then SOF ground teams seem the next best fit.

Steve

[Markus86]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

Latvia also stopped letting russians in and Estonia today as well. Czech did it right away back then. It's a process which will only gain momentum as russians keep pissing everyone off all around the world by being what they truly are.

Remember how half a year ago I wrote here that russians are all the same and need to get "cancelled" everywhere because all of them are responsible - and some people here were "naaah you are just being bad saying all russians are bad" - but as it turns out it's all about sitting back, relaxing and simply letting russians do what they do best - and they will eventually get noticed. And promptly squished.

Serves them right.

Did you read the exceptions? 

Quote

The decision does not concern Russian citizens with visas issued by other EU members. But this issue will be raised with the EU later this month, he said.
It will also not affect Russian citizens whose homeland is Estonia or who are permanent residents of Estonia, Reinsalu said.
Exceptions to the rule include:
Russian embassy employees and their family members working in Estonia;
Employees directly involved in the transportation of goods and passengers;
Those who have the right to freedom of movement under EU law;
People visiting close relatives;
People entering for humanitarian reasons.

I understand and support the idea, but I'm afraid that only if the whole of the European Union enforces this policy, it will have an effect.  German chancelor Scholz already explained that he thinks this is a bad idea. Because of poor normal russians ... 

Quote

The Chancellor has spoken out against a ban on tourist visas for Russians. "This is Putin's war, and that's why I have a hard time with this idea," Scholz told journalists in Berlin. Scholz referred to the "very far-reaching sanctions" against Russia.
According to Scholz, it would weaken the effectiveness of the sanctions "if they were directed against everyone, including the innocent."

 

[akd]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The craters were created by something, and it certainly wasn't a Switchblade 300

The craters all correspond to roughly to bomb dumps seen in May, which when detonating will create craters.  And all 4 locations have craters, but of different sizes:

Edited August 11, 2022 by akd

[MSBoxer]

While the US has explicitly stated that it did not "supply the weapons" used in Crimea, this does not mean that the US did not manufacture the weapons.

Technically it would not be out of the realm of possibility that another NATO member delivered US long range PGM to Ukraine.

I am not promoting this as the answer, just pointing out that the announcements do not preclude the possibility.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

The craters all correspond to roughly to bomb dumps seen in May, which when detonating will create craters.  And all 4 locations have craters, but of different sizes:

I think Steve's point is that the Switchblade 300 is not going to be able to high order those munitions piles.  Something obviously did, and that is the question.

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The proper Ukrainian transliteration is Hrim («Грім»). "Grom" is the Russian transliteration of the Russian equivalent «Грoм». (It's like Kharkiv vs. Kharkov). Similarly, in Ukrainian, "Stugna" is actually pronounced "Stuhna".

"Hrim" refers to the missile itself, while "Sapsan" is for the complete complex (TEL + targeting etc.)

When Hrim was initially showed on parade in 2018 (test model of launcher without the missile) it was introduced like "operative-tactical missile complex Hrim-2". 

Sapsan was other project of multirole launcher for ballistic and surface-air missiles with mortar type of start. Project was closed in 2012 by the decision of minister of defense Lebedev (citizen of Russia and Russian influence agent)

Hrim-2 is successor of Sapsan, which uses most of Sapsan's developments, but already with vertical start and for ballistic missile only. Maybe Hrim-2 is a name for Saudi Arabia (300 km) and improved complex for Ukraine with 500+ km range is Sapsan, let's see when it was introdiced officially like finished and adopted project

@MikeyD

Small phonetical lesson

Unlike in Russian, where the letter "Г" transmits only the voiced velar plosive [g] sound like in English "gain",  Ukrainian language has two sounds: " ґ " for voiced velar plosive [g] and "Г" for voiced glottal fricative [ɦ] (like in the English "home", but slightly closer to [g], then in English ).

Sound [ɦ] is common, in that time, when [g] is very rare and apperaed only in less than two dozens words. 

Until new rules of translitaration were introduced about 5 or more years ago, usually words with "г" letters transliterated through "g" letter on Russian language manner. And this practice was usual and for western media. So, because of this you can see "Grim-2" spelling, though according to new transliteration rules  "Hrim-2" is more correct.

But there is some confusions with pronunciation - theese new rules have struck on established speech habits. For example the word "hobbit" in Ukrainian spelled like "хоббіт", which corresponded to Russian pronunciation [khobbit], but now new spelling rules demand all foreign words on "h" letter to write through "г" letter -  "гоббіт" with pronunciation [ɦobbit]. But historically all foreign words with initial "h" letter always spelled and prononciated in Ukrianian with "kh" sound, because it more close to English "home", than to UKR variant of [ɦ], which I just can't transmit here

So, when I see the spelling like Hrim, my mind, habits and logic cry to me to read it like "khrim" 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[riptides]

There is another possibility about Saki.

Do not laugh.

Maybe the Russians bombed their own base.

• Old targeting data feed that was never updated
• A disgruntled base commander
• An accidental ordnance release from a base pilot
• A premeditated insider attack

 

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

I think Steve's point is that the Switchblade 300 is not going to be able to high order those munitions piles.  Something obviously did, and that is the question.

I have absolutely zero expertise in the field of explosives, but I'd think that many  air delivered munitions would be big enough to instantly detonate the whole storage? We saw many artillery ammo storages burning slowly and throwing shells around, but if 500kg bomb goes off, I'd think it might turn into one huge explosion? 

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, riptides said:

There is another possibility about Saki.

Do not laugh.

Maybe the Russians bombed their own base.

• Old targeting data feed that was never updated
• A disgruntled base commander
• An accidental ordnance release from a base pilot
• A premeditated insider attack

 

 

Wasn't there a girl who could start fires with her mind?

Oh wait, squirrels...what about squirrels?

Seriously - none of these really add up based on the scope and scale of damage done.

Edited August 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, riptides said:

There is another possibility about Saki.

Do not laugh.

Maybe the Russians bombed their own base.

• Old targeting data feed that was never updated
• A disgruntled base commander
• An accidental ordnance release from a base pilot
• A premeditated insider attack

 

 

The did it under a contract Мило Миндербиндерович had from the UA.  

Everybody has a share.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

I have absolutely zero expertise in the field of explosives, but I'd think that many  air delivered munitions would be big enough to instantly detonate the whole storage? We saw many artillery ammo storages burning slowly and throwing shells around, but if 500kg bomb goes off, I'd think it might turn into one huge explosion? 

The problem is setting them off.  Look here: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/fab-250.htm.  Only about half the weight of a Soviet aerial bomb is explosives.  The rest is casing and fins.   That casing is heavy and metal, not an eggshell.  So in order to get the bomb to sympathetically detonate you need to direct enough energy at the explosives to get them to go from solid to gas.

The Switchblade 300 has about 50g of explosives (same as 40mm), and it is not likely to get through the casing in order to set off the explosives.  Further, a small explosive that does trigger one bomb does not guarantee that they all go off.  A lot of time explosives just blow off and you wind up with a partial.  Even if this job was done by hand (i.e. SOF), the explosives would have to be carefully sighted, likely in the center of the stack, with multiple redundancy in order to ensure they all go off.

Now if you are dropping 500+ pounds of HE in an airburst, right on top of the bomb pile...well you can see how that would be a better way to go.

Edited August 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

Sure looks like an engine fire to me:

 

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, akd said:

The craters all correspond to roughly to bomb dumps seen in May, which when detonating will create craters.  And all 4 locations have craters, but of different sizes:

Not what I'm seeing.  As stated before, I see signs (rims) of three exactly the same sized craters.  Ignoring the case you pointed to for a second, here is my master image without the markings on them.  Those red circles correspond to those three hits.  In fact, I drew one of the circles and cut/pasted them onto the other two locations.  They fit perfectly.

Yet the ammo they struck was very different in each of the three locations.  In #1 it's open and not much there.  #2 is also open, but significantly larger than #1.  #3A is larger than either of the others and is contained within a building.  Yet all three craters are the same size.

This leaves #3B, which is the one you pointed to.  For this one I don't see a distinct crater within the footprint of the building.  What I do see is a small crater (you pointed to) there, which doesn't look to be large enough to have detonated the whole building.  Especially as I suspect this is the one that went simultaneously with #3A.  Not logical.

What is more logical is that you pointed to a crater formed by something that cooked off.  As it was out in the open it might have had a chance to leave its own mark, so to speak, instead of it being obscured by other secondary explosions.  You can see the same evidence of this in #2 location.

My current theory is that there was enough secondary damage in #3B that it "rubbed out" the crater of the initial hit, either by damaging it or laying debris over it.

In any case, as discussed in other posts... the video evidence shows these things went up all at once.  No cookoffs from small explosions causing chain reactions.

Steve

[Donbaskherson]

The idea is not so wild if we would modify it a bit. Imagine Russian pilot taking Ukrainian offer and fly a plane to their base, and then Ukrainian pilot fly back, use IFF to identify as Russian plane and bomb the base

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The problem is setting them off.  Look here: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/fab-250.htm.  Only about half the weight of a Soviet aerial bomb is explosives.  The rest is casing and fins.   That casing is heavy and metal, not an eggshell.  So in order to get the bomb to sympathetically detonate you need to direct enough energy at the explosives to get them go go from solid to gas.

The Switchblade 300 has about 50g of explosives (same as 40mm), and it is not likely to get through the casing in order to set off the explosives.  Further, a small explosive that does trigger one bomb does not guarantee that they all go off.  A lot of time explosives just blow off and you wind up with a partial.  Even if this job was done by hand (i.e. SOF), the explosives would have to be carefully sighted, likely in the center of the stack, with multiple redundancy in order to ensure they all go off.

Now if you are dropping 500+ pounds of HE in an airburst, right on top of the bomb pile...well you can see how that would be a better way to go.

Yup.

This is actually something I have in my notes for improving Combat Mission relating to hits by ATGMs.  If a Javelin hits a tank with a reasonably full ammo rack, the tank catastrophically blows up.  I don't just mean turret popping off, or even flying 30m into the air.  I mean one second there and the next nothing but a ball of fire and scrap metal remains.

RPGs, AT-4s, even NLAWs don't seem to do this.  They tend to produce less dramatic results or, eventually, a cook off situation.  Turret might go after that, but it's not the second that the AT weapon strikes the tank.

What possible explanation do I see in this?  The Javelin has a massive warhead compared to other AT weapons, it is more likely to get most of its force inside the tank, and it aims for center mass right where the ammo is stored.  Therefore, it is more likely to take all the ammo in that tank and have it explode at one time.  That produces a very, very different result than ammo cooking off one or two rounds at a time.

Same thing in this situation.  A small detonation within a large pile of ammo might very well get you to the same end result as a very large detonation (i.e. everything goes boom!), but the path to that end result will likely be very different.  Again, the difference between a tank blowing up in a massive fireball vs. a catastrophic cookoff.  Dead tanks in both circumstances, but one far more dramatic than the other.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Video of Javelin hitting moving muscovite tank; nothing special, but pretty good quality video delivered by 93rd. Brigade.

:

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Maj. Andrey Gusarov (Polovnikov), unit unknown:

@sburke

Russian volunteer, former UFSIN serviceman (jail guard) and later private security company employee, which came to Luhansk as far as in 2014 and raised from private to "major" of "LPR-promotion". Last known duty - commander of recon company of 6th LPR cossack motor-rifle regiment in the rank of "captain". Since he became "major", probably he was regimental cheif of recon or some else. Got lost during assault of Popasna on 1st of March

Edited August 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Markus86 said:

I understand and support the idea, but I'm afraid that only if the whole of the European Union enforces this policy, it will have an effect.  German chancelor Scholz already explained that he thinks this is a bad idea. Because of poor normal russians ... 

Yup. Whole idea is right, but impractical from many reasons, including dozens of possible ways to circumvent it by other countries. If introduced, it could undercut Russian support for the war among higher-middle class, though; "normal" Russians feel almost zero real pressure to do something about the war now. And situations when they travel to middle of Europe and bully Ukrainian refugees there are disguisting. This or other way, something should be done about it.

 

Regarding Belarussian base attack...SAR is not always good source, but it sems airbase was largely abandoned even before explosions. On other side, Motolko Help reports destroyed tank (unconfirmed)...so maybe these were drills after all.

 

[Cederic]

19 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nah. We are not talking about 1.500 bombs. We are talking about a software (NUKEMAP) which calculates blast effect based on kiloton equivalents of HE and explosion height. Big difference! Look at the screen.

Multiple flaws with the analysis on that site.

1 - this wasn't a 500 ton explosion, let alone three of them. The town's still standing.

2 - the craters do not have a 20m radius. 4-6m tops

3 - the craters are not 10m deep. I'd guess from the photographs 1-3m but that's just a guess

4 - craters that size can be made by 250kg bombs (see below)

5 - craters bigger than that can be made by car bombs (see below)

6 - the site itself admits it's terrible at sub-1000 ton calculations

So this could've been anything from high velocity 100kg bomb to at most around 500kg, assuming the larger and deeper range for the crater width and depth.

Small bomb, big crater: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48746557

Car bomb, big crater: https://globalnews.ca/video/3492322/afghanistan-car-bomb-leaves-massive-crater-in-road

 

 

[Cederic]

Not seen this Rumint posted before, but it appeals to me so I'm choosing to mostly believe it.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure looks like an engine fire to me:

 

According to Konstantin Mashovets two S-300 launchers (but due to info about type of destroyed radar in could be S-400) and Pantsyr S1 were destroyed there. As well as source, pointed by Huba tells 92N6E radar (maintains S-400 battalion) was wiped out. Our sources also add to this T-72 tank. 

Ziabrovka airfield now no more Belarusian. Lukashenko officially handed over this airfield to Russia. There is no important airbase for the jets, but this is hub for Iskander launchers, which have been launching missiles from this area.

Due to small distance to airfield from the border (24 km in closest point) it can be combined strike with HIMARS and HARM

Edited August 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

According to Konstantin Mashovets two S-300 launchers (but due to info about type of destroyed radar in could be S-400) and Pantsyr S1 were destroyed there. As well as source, pointed by Huba tells 92N6E radar (maintains S-400 battalion) was wiped out. Our sources also add to this T-72 tank. 

Ziabrovka airfield now no more Belarusian. Lukashenko officially handed over this airfield to Russia. There is no important airbase for the jets, but this is hub for Iskander launchers, which have been launching missiles from this area.

Due to small distance to airfield from the border (24 km in closest point) it can be combined strike with HIMARS and HARM

I guess this would be another one of those "communications" events @The_Captkeeps referring to.    Or as Monty Python would say

 

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Cederic said:

2 - the craters do not have a 20m radius. 4-6m tops

I put the rough diameter of the impact craters at 15m-17m

28 minutes ago, Cederic said:

3 - the craters are not 10m deep. I'd guess from the photographs 1-3m but that's just a guess

Yeah, they look pretty shallow relatively speaking.

Steve