How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

Story keeps changing
 

 

[Beleg85]

49 minutes ago, Butschi said:

In Russia, I guess, it is more induced by propaganda and a lack of information (at least, I assume, it is more difficult to obtain without actively looking for it) than by choice. What do our resident experts for the Russian society think?

Hardly an expert, but before @Grigb will answer, just my 2 cents again. The post was about propagandists and officials, but if we talk about wide population perspective I don't think there is a difference between hard MAGA and average Russian believing in Putin's wisdom. They do work in very diifferent envirenments- true, with very different forms of post-modernism (or post-factualism). But good propaganda detects and works on societial prejudices and inner fears- and Russian society was always highly schauvinistic, imperialistic and prone to conspiracy theories (for example, khokhol slur term for Ukrainian is probably at least several centuries old) . Thus, Kremlin don't need to block information that much, nor even do the hard Soviet-style brain washing; they simply nourish what is already there. Lack of access to information + hard propaganda are unfortunatelly simplistic explanations to the whole process; additionally, they take the guilt away from Russians and put it on shoulders of few decidents.

That is why negative reaction to this war was anemic at best, and still after 5 months Putin has 50%+ support with rest do not giving flying flamingo about war.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

WaPo is reporting it was neither HIMARS nor Neptune.

"A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, told The Post on Tuesday only that a U.S. weapon was not used in the attack."

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[MSBoxer]

Can we read anything into the timing of this attack?  In the past, it seems that the majority of attacks on fixed logistical targets have taken place at night, "HIMARS Hour".  Was there something special about this attack?

I doubt that it was driven by the number of aircraft present, most sorties seem to be during the day.

I think UK was sending a message and with the number of tourists nearby, this would be harder to deny/cover up.  

[Offshoot]

Given all the speculation and different tip offs, I have a feeling the Ukrainians are reveling in trolling the Russians about the Novofedorivka strike and the Russians' response to it.
The official Ukrainian Ministry of Defence statement (https://www.facebook.com/MinistryofDefence.UA/posts/pfbid0ntt9NdkRyKTJcdCecrnwNBC8gidK8ABj2w712bM5U77giiCah66GmVccJFs3cJhpl)
Google translate:
"Regarding the fire on the territory of the airfield "Saki" in the area of the settlement of Novofedorivka in the Crimea temporarily occupied by Russia.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine cannot determine the cause of the fire, however, it once again reminds of the rules of fire safety and the prohibition of smoking in unspecified places.

The fact of a fire can be used by a terrorist country in an information war. We do not rule out that the occupiers will "accidentally" find some characteristic "chevron", "business card" or even "DNA".

Please note that cotton clothing is very hygienic.

Keep calm and believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine!"

[DesertFox]

20 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Story keeps changing
 

 

Always good to keep the world and the orcs in the dark what really happend. If they don´t know what happened, they cant take countermeasures.

[Grigb]

Today I am continuing to provide context for RU offensive as all high up maps with arrows are in fact confusing. We have to go lower to see what real Ru progress looks like.

I am going to put again Soledar detailed map as we have a new RU claim. Today RU claim they captured Belokamensk Fireproof Plant.

It does sound serious - recently they captured Knauf and today they captured a new plant already. Except there is no such plant. There are ruins of Belokamensk Fireproof Plant.

The ruins do not give enough cover for anything but a platoon. So, today's progress so far was push by RU recon party to put the RU flag on top of ruins. 

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Story keeps changing
 

 

Lol!  Talk about undeciding.  If this was a SOF Op it is worse news for the Russians as infiltration and sabotage does not have a range limit.  If true, or even suspected, this will tie the Russian security forces in knots for the rest of the war and likely beyond.

They are going to be wishing it was HIMARs.  If it was SOF, it will be one for the history books.

[Grigb]

Sorry, I could not help it.

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

Apparently an anonymous Ukraininan source has told Washington Post the Novofedorivka attack had been done Ukrainian Special Forces. Of course this may be just a new alternative explanation to confuse the Russians.

[Edit] Others beat me to the news.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Maciej Zwolinski

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Apparently an anonymous Ukraininan source has told Washington Post the Novofedorivka attack had been done Ukrainian Special Forces. Of course this may be just a new alternative explanation to confuse the Russians.

[Edit] Others beat me to the news.

Spec ops can used drones and they can also smuggle HIMARS close enough.

[Los]

The farther in the rear, the poorer and more lax the security, the more targets open up for competent special operations. 

 

Los

[Butschi]

14 hours ago, MikeyD said:

About Sapsan. The 'optical guidance matching image in memory' feature reminds me of Iran's Khallij Fars 'carrier killer' ballistic missile. 300km range, 650kg warhead and, reportedly, optical matching terminal guidance (keying on an aircraft carrier shape). China fields the much longer range Dong Feng operating on the same principle. If Ukraine managed to put a couple Sapsans together an airfield would be an ideal terrain feature to map to.

 

53 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Can we read anything into the timing of this attack?  In the past, it seems that the majority of attacks on fixed logistical targets have taken place at night, "HIMARS Hour".

See above, I guess for optical image matching you need daylight? So maybe that tells us something about what weapon was used (if it was not SOF)?

[akd]

Nice BDA for the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge strike last night:

 

[Grigb]

Girkin to rants about Crimea strike in case you are interested.

Quote

I read from Margosha Simonyan about the "spontaneous detonation of ammunition" at the airfield near Novofedorovka. I am only surprised that Margosha did not borrow the creative experience of her Ukrainian colleagues [RU are under impression that UKR propaganda is more corrupt than RU] . Honestly, it's time to introduce "air conditioning explosions" [Somehow RU believes UKR are using air conditioner explosions the same way as RU use Cottons] into the lexicon, and then shamefully admit that "we fired at ourselves."[RU vehemently denies they are shooting at civilians in Donetsk]

PS Partners continue to search for "red lines" [means UKR a searching after what kremlin will respond to no avail - sarcasm]  Traitors and saboteurs among VIP officials are looking for excuses to continue their sabotage.

 

Quote

In general, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that ammunition was stored in Novofedorovka, they exploded, but there was no attack on them. They [ammo] were lying just like this, and then (simultaneously in two places) they just exploded. It happens, well....

One chance in a million in a million years, but what kind of miracles do not happen in the army (especially in ours). And if anyone thinks that the officials of the Ministry of Defense are misleading the public, then I strongly reject such a possibility! - it is widely known that the Plywood Marshal [Shoigu] and his associates cannot lie... at most, they will get a little carried away (as in the case of 30 thousand "Syrian volunteers eager to take part in SMO"... not to mention the fact that "our army is equipped with everything necessary"). But are enthusiastic people a bad thing? Has the ability to fantasize (and even to be creative) become not a virtue, but a vice?!? No, no and no!!! Therefore, the whole Crimea must be patient! - "Donbass endured and told you to [endure]!". And note - Donbass has endured for 8 years and still endures! Therefore, if someone imagined that the partners crossed some "red lines", then such thoughts are deeply apolitical and we will fight them mercilessly!

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

They have very talented spin doctors and numerous propagandists in various media sectors. As always, the problem is lack of decision on "what to think". ...

In a world of instant infiormation this is one of its most grave weaknesess.

We saw this on full display when MH-17 was shot down.  They rushed a response out because they had to.  It was moronic and easily proven false (Ukraine Buk shot it down, IIRC, was first).  When this flopped they came up with a second one (IIRC Ukrainian MiG), this time backed up by obviously fabricated "satellite" images.  Not only did the images make everybody laugh, but someone within the ministry forgot to check to see how the variables of altitude, distance, speed, etc. meshed together.  They did not.  So unless Ukraine invented a new wonder weapon or wonder aircraft, the story was physically impossible.  So they fabricated more evidence such as the supposed Kiev air controller overhearing orders to shoot down MH-17, which then spun into a classic conspiracy theory.

My memory of the details might be a bit off, but the point I'm making is accurate.  They spin doctors are more like triage physicians, not surgeons.  They look at the problem and immediately make a diagnosis and recommendation.  Due to the restrictions of time it seems Russia skips over the consultation with the experts on that particular injury and instead go right to the press podium.  At that moment they are committed to whatever lie they spewed.  When it is proven wrong they have to go to the podium again and tell a different lie.  Repeat until something sticks or the audience tires and moves on.

Russians and their sympathizers don't have a problem with this, because they don't trust the spokespeople anyway.  Yet they believe what they are told anyway, even if they have to modify it themselves so that it makes better sense.  More intellectually puzzling is that they seem to be easily suckered into conspiracy theories.

Again, this isn't specific to Russians, though I think a bigger percentage of their population fits this description.  Look at Q-Anon followers.  They don't believe things which can be proven true/false when they don't like the conclusions.  But they'll believe an anonymous source on the Internet (of all places!) who has no track record of being correct even about the things that should be obvious lies.  Whatever allows for this, it is a defect (or defects) of the Human mind.  Russian culture might cater its messaging to such people, but inherently they're working with the same gray goo as the rest of the world.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

WaPo is reporting it was neither HIMARS nor Neptune.

"A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, told The Post on Tuesday only that a U.S. weapon was not used in the attack."

 

So now I worry RU will grab some local guys, dress them up in SOF garb, shoot them and say "saboteurs found and killed by brave RU forces in vicious firefight.  This is the team that did terror attack on local civilian airport in crimea."  This is good propaganda, of course, because it identifies issue & solves it cleanly.  It's tragic because they murder innocents to pull it off.

[Twisk]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

snip

Grigb, thank you for making these overlays they are very informative and add good context. I wonder are these image being uploaded to the Battlefront website? I ask because often if you look at old forum posts and many images are now 404 and give bad result because images were uploaded to free image hosting and are now gone. It would be unfortunate to lose your hardwork to internet rot



@Haiduk Thank you for taking time to respond, appreciate your input.

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So now I worry RU will grab some local guys, dress them up in SOF garb, shoot them and say "saboteurs found and killed by brave RU forces in vicious firefight.  This is the team that did terror attack on local civilian airport in crimea."  This is good propaganda, of course, because it identifies issue & solves it cleanly.  It's tragic because they murder innocents to pull it off.

Nah, not really. Don´t worry. There will be a next strike, like Saki Air base, and one after that and so on and so on. Such suggested orc behaviour won´t help them with propaganda and won´t solve anything for them.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Lol!  Talk about undeciding.  If this was a SOF Op it is worse news for the Russians as infiltration and sabotage does not have a range limit.  If true, or even suspected, this will tie the Russian security forces in knots for the rest of the war and likely beyond.

They are going to be wishing it was HIMARs.  If it was SOF, it will be one for the history books.

Yeah, exactly that!  Thinking about it as an American, I am much less worried about a North Korean missile system than I am some terrorist smuggling a single dirty bomb into an urban area or major water supply.

I don't know that I believe it is a SOF op for the exact reasons why it would be so troublesome for Russia.  I do not doubt that Ukraine has agents in Crimea.  Stupid to think they don't.  I do not doubt that they've smuggled naughty stuff into Crimea before and after the war started.  The coastline is simply too easily penetrated by small watercraft, not to mention standard passenger vehicle smuggling.  We even have the possibility of Ukraine SOF being responsible for the suicide drone attack on the HQ on Naval Day (still also possibly false flag excuse to cancel the event).  Therefore, on the surface it is totally plausible.

Two possibilites:

1. Old School - getting onto the base pretty much unnoticed, having the time and opportunity to rig explosives in two locations, getting off base without getting caught, then remote detonation
2. New School - two suicide drones launched from the same location at the exact same time and flown along the same flight path and smashed them into two separate targets within a half second of each other

We have no evidence of drones.  Nobody heard them (someone definitely would have), nobody saw them (someone would likely have), and trying to synchronize two hits like that would be a total fluke as it's too precise to have been deliberate.  I think we can rule New School strike.

Old school is totally plausible.  Russian security at the base is probably crap and Ukraine has probably had first hand on-the-ground intel for months if not years.  There's a huge swath of "impassible terrain" to the south that the right sort of people could easily infiltrate from, especially at night.  The targets themselves almost certainly were poorly guarded and easily conducive to catastrophic explosion due to traditional Russian "safety" procedures.  Elimination of anybody accidentally discovering them would likely, knowing Russian vigilance and discipline, not be noticed for many hours.  So I do think the Old School strike is plausible if not possible.

However, compare the Old School possibility with launching something from the safety of home territory with GPS guidance with nothing more than the weapon and a target's coordinates. 

Occam's Razor leans towards the GPS munition for sure, but that doesn't mean it is the correct answer to the puzzling question we're asking ourselves!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Nice BDA for the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge strike last night:

 

Nicely placed!  That span is over open water and therefore no risk of damaging the dam or even the facilities.  These still look like 155 impacts to me rather than HIMARS.  Which makes sense as Ukraine is trying to damage the bridges there, not destroy them.  HIMARS has nearly 4 times as much mass and (probably) explosives as an Excalibur round.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Los said:

The farther in the rear, the poorer and more lax the security, the more targets open up for competent special operations. 

 

Los

Thanks for that.  I made my post before I read yours, but that is exactly what I was thinking.

This base is "safely in the rear" manned by the Russian military.  Good security requires strong leadership, chain of command, accountability, and discipline.  It also requires those things to be fairly consistently in place 24/7/365.  Any signs that the Russian military possesses these traits?  No.  Even on the frontlines these qualities don't seem to exist, at least not equally and frequently enough to be counted on.

Security can, of course, doesn't have to rely totally on Humans.  Lots of high tech options exist for these purposes.  Who here has faith that Russia installed such systems in a way that would be consistent with Western concepts of security?  Anybody?  No, I thought not.

So what we have is a base that is likely poorly guarded with limited support technology in an area where Russians were unlikely to be concerned about hardening ground based defenses.

Kinda idea setting for SOF ops.

Steve

[akd]

Interesting thread on the destruction of the 64th (now Guards) Motor Rifle Brigade:

Also, Shtat for the 25th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade as of April 30th:

The entire Brigade had less than 800 personnel, 8 tanks and 35 APCs divided into two weak BTGs.

https://twitter.com/Haruspexut/status/1557323735895506945?s=20&t=aPcb7EJ_Y-6cMWTAW7QC9A

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Today I am continuing to provide context for RU offensive as all high up maps with arrows are in fact confusing. We have to go lower to see what real Ru progress looks like.

I am going to put again Soledar detailed map as we have a new RU claim. Today RU claim they captured Belokamensk Fireproof Plant.

It does sound serious - recently they captured Knauf and today they captured a new plant already. Except there is no such plant. There are ruins of Belokamensk Fireproof Plant.

The ruins do not give enough cover for anything but a platoon. So, today's progress so far was push by RU recon party to put the RU flag on top of ruins. 

Yeah, Russians have been making "mountains out of molehills" for their reports since the start of the war.  They say things that sound impressive based on previous battles, but in reality it's just a useless patch of ground that Ukraine saw no real need to defend.

Thanks for pointing this out.

Steve