How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

A tempting concept, this drive to the Azov shore, isn’t it?

Indeed.  Looking at maps is it's pretty easy to spot areas where an offensive of some sort could produce good results.  The challenge is spotting where it is practical and where it is not.  Obviously Russians know this all too well

Driving to the coastline is one of those things that looks great on paper, but from a logistics standpoint I don't see it working until Ukraine is sure Russia's forces in the area are ready to collapse.  The primary problem is distance.  It's something like 100km from the current front to Crimea.  The amount of infantry that would be needed to screen Ukraine's flanks is more than they have to commit.  And for sure the Russians would come at the flanks like rabid dogs because they'd recognize the huge threat from it.

On the other hand, if Russia's forces are in a state of active deterioration this becomes at least conceptually viable.  Ukraine proved this strategy can work during the June-August 2014 offensive.  With very small forces they cut through Russian (oh sorry, "separatist") lines and set up checkpoints that effectively held the ground they took.  This worked because the Russian (ack, there I go again... "separatist") forces were poorly coordinated, poorly led, and poorly motivated to fight (except for hardcore).  They melted away just like Saddam's forces did in 2003.

1 hour ago, Huba said:

I was pondering a different idea lately. Given that achieving an operational surprise is rather impossible in the UA environment , perhaps UA could achieve a local superiority openly, taking advantage of the short lines of communication it enjoys? The little info we have about UA reserve corp suggests it is mostly stationed around Zaporizhya and Krivy Rih. If UA was to shift these forces for an offensive east of Kharkiv, it has to move them maybe 200km to the starting positions. RU reserves OTOH would have to cover an ungodly distance from Kherson through Crimea all the way arund Donbas to Vovchansk . And if UA was to get ATACMS and strike Crimea bridge…

For even more fun, make this drive to Oskil a feint, engage considerable forces at this direction only untill RU will be in the middle of moving reserves there, and then switch back to Kherson, again taking advantage of short LOCs. Make the Russians drive around inefficiently, stretching their already horrible logistics while you bid your time before really commiting to any particular direction.

Does it make sense in your opinion?

Yes it does, and it's one reason why Kherson is the obvious first area to push.  Everybody knows Ukraine wants to do an offensive there, yet Russia's options to do anything about it ahead of time are very few in number and even smaller in scope now that the bridges are out of service.  Ukraine doesn't have to worry about much OPSEC there.

Elsewhere, Ukraine would have to put in a fair amount of effort to have sufficient artillery and ground forces ready to attack somewhere on short notice.  Absolutely could be done, but the effort to me seems out of proportion to the likely gain.  This is the sort of attack I was advocating for back in March when the front was more fluid and Russians were trying to advance pretty much everywhere.

Steve

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was pondering a different idea lately. Given that achieving an operational surprise is rather impossible in the UA environment , perhaps UA could achieve a local superiority openly, taking advantage of the short lines of communication it enjoys? The little info we have about UA reserve corp suggests it is mostly stationed around Zaporizhya and Krivy Rih. If UA was to shift these forces for an offensive east of Kharkiv, it has to move them maybe 200km to the starting positions. RU reserves OTOH would have to cover an ungodly distance from Kherson through Crimea all the way arund Donbas to Vovchansk . And if UA was to get ATACMS and strike Crimea bridge…

For even more fun, make this drive to Oskil a feint, engage considerable forces at this direction only untill RU will be in the middle of moving reserves there, and then switch back to Kherson, again taking advantage of short LOCs. Make the Russians drive around inefficiently, stretching their already horrible logistics while you bid your time before really commiting to any particular direction.

as per Huba's comments above, I do like the idea of UKR stealing a march on RU.  But I would do it much more locally.  I think the easy crossing that UKR has in Zaporizhya might give UKR some elements of surprise.  They could stage on either side of the river and make a big show of massing.  Then once RU reacts switch to the other side & attack.  RU would have a much harder time repositioning than would UKR, since unplanned. -- and over a big river.  While UKR could steal a night march and have a couple days to hit before RU could react.  Then if things get to hot when RU reinforcements arrive, pull back some after whupping up on local RU forces.

 

[Huba]

So I watch this guy sometimes. He talks about the general situatiion mostly, but being Ukrainian he sometimes conveys an interesting perspective directly from UA. In today’s video he makes some interesting statements:

- UA counteroffensive most likely cancelled for now

- RU intends one more big offensive in Kherson/ Zaporizhya with the intention of forcing UA to the negotiating table. Hopefully Zelensky won’t accept any terms for now, but there might be the impression that UA is still on the back foot

- there’s an expectation that come October/ late September, lend lease support will start arriving in UA, of an order of magnitude higher than the current ad hoc donations. 
- basically, RU gets to do one more swing before UA crushes them in autumn.

Now assuming this is the plan and the massive lend lease comes, it makes perfect sense to wait while bleeding the RU even more. Question is, will it come?

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Short material showing training on SPG-9, with some tactical information aabout organization of their units. This journo crew with female reporter from Hromadske makes nice, 10+ mins dispatches from frontlines, with ENG subs available. Worth to follow:

Her and her crew are great!  Some of the consistently best reporting I've seen this whole war.  The training video you linked to is a great example.  Scrubbing cosmoline off 30 year old mortar rounds... dirty job, but someone has to do it

Here's another one of Hromadske's excellent videos that I missed earlier.  It documents one of the most important early war battles that went in favor of Ukraine.  It was the failed Russian assault on the Mykolaiv airports.  This, combined with other counter attacks, doomed Russia's attempts to take the city and create a staging ground for moving towards Odessa.  It would also have provided a nice buffer for Kherson if they took it.

What we see in the video is exactly why Russia had so many problems gaining ground.  The Ukrainians had plenty of ex-soldiers with combat experience, so there was a ready pool of men to pull together into competent fighting units.  Even though they were poorly armed, ad-hoc units of TD, police, and Army managed to defeat Russia's "elite" VDV. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

- UA counteroffensive most likely cancelled for now

- RU intends one more big offensive in Kherson/ Zaporizhya with the intention of forcing UA to the negotiating table. Hopefully Zelensky won’t accept any terms for now, but there might be the impression that UA is still on the back foo

Hmm.  It's speculation, of course, but if Russia really is planning some sort of "offensive" out of Kherson it might make sense to hold back and wait for the attack to develop.  In that way Ukraine won't get itself caught executing a plan that is no longer optimal.

This is why I'm very patient with Ukraine.  There's so many people critical of Ukraine's "slowness" to start pushing Russian forces back over the border.  I'm not one of them.  They can't afford to make many mistakes, so they are being cautious while they let Russia make enough mistakes for both of them.  As the old saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

Steve

[Huba]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Hmm.  It's speculation, of course, but if Russia really is planning some sort of "offensive" out of Kherson it might make sense to hold back and wait for the attack to develop.  In that way Ukraine won't get itself caught executing a plan that is no longer optimal.

This is why I'm very patient with Ukraine.  There's so many people critical of Ukraine's "slowness" to start pushing Russian forces back over the border.  I'm not one of them.  They can't afford to make many mistakes, so they are being cautious while they let Russia make enough mistakes for both of them.  As the old saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

Steve

Same here, time works to UA advantage. But only as long as Western support for them surpasses the losses and UA capabilities grow instead of waning. For now it seems to be the case, but the longer we go the more I’m worried about it. 

The Taiwan affair is a bit uplifting in this regard, seems that Biden’s administration is more hawkish that you might think at first glance.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmm.  It's speculation, of course, but if Russia really is planning some sort of "offensive" out of Kherson it might make sense to hold back and wait for the attack to develop.  In that way Ukraine won't get itself caught executing a plan that is no longer optimal.

This is why I'm very patient with Ukraine.  There's so many people critical of Ukraine's "slowness" to start pushing Russian forces back over the border.  I'm not one of them.  They can't afford to make many mistakes, so they are being cautious while they let Russia make enough mistakes for both of them.  As the old saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

Steve

Exactly.  If RU wants to attack from Kherson-east toward Kyrivi Rih (sp?) that would be excellent.  They can't sustain that on supplies alone.  If they attack toward Zaphorizhya they have solid supply like behind them, but UKR can trade terrain and allow RU to get stretched out and ready to be cut off and destroyed.  

UKR has the excellent position of being able to easily shift forces on either of these fronts, while for RU anything that goes into Kherson might not get back out.  And even getting anything heavy there in the first place is becoming unlikely.  

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Kyrivi Rih (sp?)

Kryvyi Rih, it means „crooked horn” or something along these lines. Straight out of John Wayne movie, isn’t it?

Edited August 4, 2022 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

The Taiwan affair is a bit uplifting in this regard, seems that Biden’s administration is more hawkish that you might think at first glance.

History repeats.

 

[paxromana]

8 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So given that these engines are already old and many sat unused for a long time, do you think the 250 hours might actually be optimistic?  Parts like rubber seals degrade not just w usage but w time.  Of course, the fact that we are seeing ancient tanks on the battlefield already tells us much about the state things for RU.

Almost certainly. Of course, not reworking them at 250 hours doesn't mean they suddenly self destruct, but it would mean that they would become increasingly unreliable and the MTBF would increase considerably ... and a suddenly broken down tank is rally danbgerous for the crew on a modern battlefield!

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

RU intends one more big offensive in Kherson/ Zaporizhya with the intention of forcing UA to the negotiating table.

For the life of me, I cannot see what that would look like.  If they wanted to try and take Zaporizhya why are they still hammering in the Donetsk?  They have a 200km frontage down in the south so a left flanking north would make sense…a few months ago.  So why do all that hemorrhaging in the Donbas as a breakout N of Mariupol could also flank E and take the ground they are doing frontals on?

More simply put - a push around Zapoizhya would have been done by now if it was an option, so what changed?

An RA offensive out of Kherson is insane (which means they may try it) because all of the LOCs have been cut or threatened.  And that goes for the 200+ kms of massive river between Kherson and Zaporizhya as well.

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

Edited August 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

For the life of me, I cannot see what that would look like.  If they wanted to try and take Zaporizhya why are they still hammering in the Donetsk?  They have a 200km frontage down in the south so a left flanking north would make sense…a few months ago.  So why do all that hemorrhaging in the Donbas as a breakout N of Mariupol could also flank E and take the ground they are doing frontals on.

More simply put - a push around Zapoizhya would have been done by now if it was an option, so what changed?

An RA offensive out of Kherson is insane (which means they may try it) because all of the LOCs have been cut or threatened.  And that goes for the 200+ kms of massive river between Kherson and Zaporizhya as well.

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

The only two explanations that fit. One is that the Russian military command, either in theater or in Moscow realizes that they have lost and are afraid to say so. Like they will be taken out and shot afraid, and are doing an insane hail mary on the off chance that it works. May be they think they are slightly less likely to have poor life outcomes if they try and fail. The other (less likely) idea is that they are faking this in the hopes of freezing the Ukrainians until mud season. I suppose they are praying a miracle will come along if they can just keep dancing. FWIW I have seen zero evidence that the Russians have the communication security or other requirements to fake anything. When admitting failure is really unpleasant people will try about anything I guess.

[billbindc]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

For the life of me, I cannot see what that would look like.  If they wanted to try and take Zaporizhya why are they still hammering in the Donetsk?  They have a 200km frontage down in the south so a left flanking north would make sense…a few months ago.  So why do all that hemorrhaging in the Donbas as a breakout N of Mariupol could also flank E and take the ground they are doing frontals on?

More simply put - a push around Zapoizhya would have been done by now if it was an option, so what changed?

An RA offensive out of Kherson is insane (which means they may try it) because all of the LOCs have been cut or threatened.  And that goes for the 200+ kms of massive river between Kherson and Zaporizhya as well.

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

I think the logic is to do *something* even if it's miles away from something legitimately strategic. Why? Because Putin's Russia has lived by hybrid war doctrine for so long that they don't quite seem to recognize yet that this war isn't one. So they are banking on simply keeping it going, looking busy and signaling bottomless cruelty in the expectation that that will be enough...with some help from frozen German industries this winter...to break up NATO, get Trump reelected, etc. Forlorn? Certainly. But it fits their world view.  

[MSBoxer]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

So a strategic Pickett's charge?

[Battlefront.com]

Another video making the rounds showing a unit refusing to fight.  This one Ukrainian 56th Brigade.  Unit was at Pisky.  Some think the video is faked because the guys look too disheveled to be regular army:

I think that's wishful thinking on some peoples' part.  Looks legit to me.  About a half dozen are wearing old National Guard camo T-shirts.  The unit is not National Guard as far as I know, but using up old stocks of functional clothing is not surprising.  Haiduk, got any news for us about this?

And this count posted last week of Russian officer casualties:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I think the logic is to do *something* even if it's miles away from something legitimately strategic. Why? Because Putin's Russia has lived by hybrid war doctrine for so long that they don't quite seem to recognize yet that this war isn't one. So they are banking on simply keeping it going, looking busy and signaling bottomless cruelty in the expectation that that will be enough...with some help from frozen German industries this winter...to break up NATO, get Trump reelected, etc. Forlorn? Certainly. But it fits their world view.  

Totally agree.  I think what The_Capt is struggling with is that Putin knows they have to do something to change the situation and some sort of diversionary attack and hope it hurts Ukraine's morale enough that they get back to the negotiating table.  As Grigb points out, Russian mentality is if you don't have something new to try, do the same thing you've been doing and hope for a better result.  They've been struggling for 6 months to come up with something different and strategically nothing has panned out. 

The only thing that has worked, even though limited, is the grinding WW1 style offensives.  Which even the Russians have to understand by now isn't sustainable.  The RU Nats definitely have seen it this way, as they are now legitimately concerned that at this pace they won't have anybody left to invade the rest of Ukraine with or, as Grigb quoted one Nat, Poland.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Map time! Main intrigue of the day - nope, Pisky is not taken yet. 

 

Same pattern as the last few days.  About a dozen Russian ground assaults defeated and withdrawn according to Ukraine, Russian side says "fighting is ongoing".  At least two settlements north of Horlivka taken by Russian forces, possibly one or two others.  Pisky is still partially in Ukraine's hands.

Is there any indication of the intensity level of Russian artillery?  Seems to me that they might be striking fewer "random" targets and instead concentrating on the areas that they are actively attacking with ground forces.

Steve

[dan/california]

I realize there are reasons for NATO not to enter this war and destroy the Russian army in a weekend. But the the thought of the Russian Nats tears when literally not a single piece of equipment made it back over the border into Russia almost justifies taking the risk. And it really would be useful for even the nuttiest of them to Understand that not only is there army not in the major leagues, it is the last place team in single A. For our European friends that is the equivalent of being the worst "professional" team in Hungary or Serbia.

[Battlefront.com]

Seems there's starting to be some sort of suspicion amongst the pro-Ukrainian social media types that Ukraine is faking preparing an offensive in Kherson in order to draw Russian reinforcements in, possibly while they prepare an offensive somewhere else.  I don't buy it.  For all the right reasons Kherson is a good place to attack, other places not so much.

Steve

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Totally agree.  I think what The_Capt is struggling with is that Putin knows they have to do something to change the situation and some sort of diversionary attack and hope it hurts Ukraine's morale enough that they get back to the negotiating table.  As Grigb points out, Russian mentality is if you don't have something new to try, do the same thing you've been doing and hope for a better result.  They've been struggling for 6 months to come up with something different and strategically nothing has panned out. 

The only thing that has worked, even though limited, is the grinding WW1 style offensives.  Which even the Russians have to understand by now isn't sustainable.  The RU Nats definitely have seen it this way, as they are now legitimately concerned that at this pace they won't have anybody left to invade the rest of Ukraine with or, as Grigb quoted one Nat, Poland.

Steve

I keep looking at this from perspective of Hitler after 1941 and each subsequent year.  He already knows he's lost if he can't flip the chess board.  So he keeps trying new offensives, except that each offensive is less likely to work than the last which was already unlikely to work.  It's called desperation. 

1.  if you keep on current coarse you will most definitely lose, and you will personally die

2.  so anything, even if only a 2% chance of success, you try.  because maybe some miracle will happen.  Not trying it is 100% chance of death.  Trying is only 98% chance of death.

So Putin has entered the Hitler-1943 phase of his reign.

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I realize there are reasons for NATO not to enter this war and destroy the Russian army in a weekend. But the the thought of the Russian Nats tears when literally not a single piece of equipment made it back over the border into Russia almost justifies taking the risk. And it really would be useful for even the nuttiest of them to Understand that not only is there army not in the major leagues, it is the last place team in single A. For our European friends that is the equivalent of being the worst "professional" team in Hungary or Serbia.

I just went to a sub-single A baseball game (west coast college league) at Oregon State baseball field.  I think RU would definitely be at the bottom of this league and this league definitely not filled w future major leaguers.  Being college baseball players, they are in a league that doesn't even pay them -- that's probably a lot like the RU army I bet.  I wonder how many of those soldiers actually get their promised pay & bonuses.

[Battlefront.com]

RFE/RL video about Ukraine's latest moves to improve its drone capabilities, including a domestic manufacturer of a 10 hour flight time system:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-drone-army-russia-nato-survelliance-artillery/31974035.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

August 4th ISW report had a pretty big section devoted to the strategic shift we're all seeing going on.  Specifically, Russia is no longer in the driver's seat from a strategic standpoint.  Russia is having to make decisions based on what they think Ukraine will do instead of Russia's priorities.  Specifically, shifting forces to the south in order to prepare for Ukrainian offensives. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4

At a minimum this means they have given up trying to do anything significant around Kharkiv and towards Slovyansk.  However, we're already seeing signs that it is already more problematic for Russia.  First, Ukraine seems to be able to push through the stripped down forces in the Izyum area, which indicates that Russia will likely soon have to abandon the western side of the Siverskyi Donets in that area, perhaps all the way north.  Second, pulling forces from all over the place and putting them in the south doesn't change the offensive capabilities of those forces because the transferred forces are pretty well spent.  Third, the biggest area threatened by Ukraine is (of course) Kherson, yet transferring forces there doesn't really have much chance of changing the situation because of the supply issues. Forth, for Russia to take the rest of Donetsk it is going to need all the forces it can get in the Donbas area, so the fact that it's transferring so many units south likely means the Donbas front will no longer be able to move forward either.  And won't that be an interesting time to read some RU Nat blog posts

Steve

[Grigb]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

For the life of me, I cannot see what that would look like.  If they wanted to try and take Zaporizhya why are they still hammering in the Donetsk?  They have a 200km frontage down in the south so a left flanking north would make sense…a few months ago.  So why do all that hemorrhaging in the Donbas as a breakout N of Mariupol could also flank E and take the ground they are doing frontals on?

It is political. Donetsk is literally on frontline. Pisky forward position Cowshed is 700 meters from Donetsk Street on the outskirts.  As a result, UKR can shell a lot of targets in Donetsk which is a political nightmare for RU puppet regime in DNR. They are trying to push the frontline at least to create the impression of doing something. Also, it is not RU who is bleeding there but mostly LDNR units. 

 

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

More simply put - a push around Zapoizhya would have been done by now if it was an option, so what changed?

Rumors are it is HIMARS. Rumors are HIMARS screwed up a lot in Souths so, offensive could start only once things are unscrewed there. Also, I have a feeling they are greatly concerned by UKR offensive. They are basically talking they are going to smash UKR offensive and then counter-attack and smash UKR army. It could be both sides awaiting each other to start offensive.

 

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So to summarize, the Russians are going to do one last big push in an area they would have, if they could have for months.  Or a suicidal attempt on the far side of a river while your opponent owns all the ISR and precision deep strike capability?  All the while that logistics have been getting mauled?  Am I missing something?

The idea about RU strike in the south I believe started when there were indications RU started to move equipment out of other fronts to Crimea and from Crimea up. But it looks like this equipment did not materialize in Kherson itself. Then there was info that RU deployed several HQ in Zaporoje direction. So, rumor started about RU offensive there. But I have seen UKR military opinion that UKR intelligence believe strike will be from Belarus to Kiev.

So, I believe we can reliably state only the following:

• RU still has some offensive potential (of questionable quality) left
• RU still has great need to finish the war. So there is a need for decisive win in decisive battle aka Victory offensive I was talking previously (Donbass 2nd offensive is not that). 
• There are notable indications that RU focus is South but so far nothing definite   

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another video making the rounds showing a unit refusing to fight.  This one Ukrainian 56th Brigade.  Unit was at Pisky.  Some think the video is faked because the guys look too disheveled to be regular army:

On 1-Aug in Pisky RU assault group captured around half-dozens of UKR troops who claimed they are mobilized. So, indeed it could be legit. And this points toward something interesting (below)

7 hours ago, Huba said:

- UA counteroffensive most likely cancelled for now

There are indications that UKR is moving forces from Donbass and replacing them with second rate troops.

We see:

• Replacement of regulars with mobilized
• RU claiming, they see more and more UKR counter-attacks with infantry mostly (no vehicles) 
• The arty group was removed and unlike Gnezdilov vague claim arty did not return but UKR mortar fire was strengthened.
• There was RU reports UKR removed marine brigade from Donbass
• Khodakovsky just reported UKR recently removed important equipment (EW) as well.

Quote

There is a decrease in the intensity of the work of the enemy's combined-arms artillery in the Donbas. The activity of electronic warfare systems has also noticeably decreased - we fly more freely than a week ago. Reconnaissance from the air shows fresh traces of equipment that appeared after the rains, but we do not detect the equipment itself. One of the assumptions is the transfer of resources to other (other) directions.

This is connected with the preparation of their own counteroffensive, or with the preparation for repelling our offensive - time will tell. Now it is logical to increase the pressure on the Donetsk land and proceed to its liberation.

Rain he is talking about I believe happened around 3-Aug.

UKR are definitely preparing for something.