dan/california Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, billbindc said: What I have learned from very deep dives into self driving AI is that human beings are insanely good at pattern recognition. I am pretty sure that cars, war and everything else that is not a closed system will remain human dominant for a long time to come. The systems thus far are not incorporating real vaguely neuro-simulating AI systems, among other things these systems, like human being are very hard to completely verify. I still think the long term value is worth the effort, cars kill a LOT of people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said: That, unfortunately, is hard for us to control because it's up to the Human Player to do most of that sort of stuff. I was looking at Red Dawn in which a single commander of a Sapper Platoon HQ can call in a mortar mission whilst he is completely out of C2 contact. On Hot Seat we have made it a house rule that he needs to pass on the tentative contact to a Radio HQ which is in contact with the off-map unit. The mortar FO also has no contact so he needs to stay in close contact with his Regiment HQ. But there is nothing written about this in the manual. Also field telephones are not modelled in the game. The Mortar FO has I suppose the map and binoculars but no communication means apart from he could have a hypothetical field telephone connection with his C2 HQ. This could be modelled by have a green radio button instead of an out of contact cross. Regards. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said: I was looking at Red Dawn in which a single commander of a Sapper Platoon HQ can call in a mortar mission whilst he is completely out of C2 contact. On Hot Seat we have made it a house rule that he needs to pass on the tentative contact to a Radio HQ which is in contact with the off-map unit. The mortar FO also has no contact so he needs to stay in close contact with his Regiment HQ. But there is nothing written about this in the manual. Also field telephones are not modelled in the game. The Mortar FO has I suppose the map and binoculars but no communication means apart from he could have a hypothetical field telephone connection with his C2 HQ. This could be modelled by have a green radio button instead of an out of contact cross. Regards. Yeah, not on topic enough to respond But as I said, artillery fundamentals have changed very little. Communications, which is a separate element completely, has changed a ton. Let's just say that the lack of simulating wire and field phones is a pretty pervasive limitation within CM as a whole. Including the modern games. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 My apologies for drifting off topic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Quote a Ukrainian UAV flew into the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters We're talking Sevastopol, about 350km from Kherson 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Saturday's ISW report detailed Russia's logistics problems in Kherson, but also this tidbit: Quote Ukrainian forces reportedly preempted a Russian ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast on July 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian artillery fire stopped Russian forces from launching an assault from occupied Brunskyne on Bilohirka, both located on the western bank of the Inhulets River in northwestern Kherson Oblast. This is interesting because I don't often read reports about Ukraine disrupting an attack before it happens. Usually the attack is launched then beaten back. Reading the tea leaves tells me that Ukraine has brought up significant artillery and ISR resources to this particular area, as it has been a hotspot for quite a while. This allowed Ukraine to not only receive early warning but to do something proactive with that information. This is not a good sign for the Russians in Kherson if they can't even get a relatively small scale attack off the starting line. Too soon to say if this is a one-off or a pattern, but I suspect (more tea leaves!) that this will become a pattern. I don't think Russian forces will cease trying to launch attacks even if they keep getting defeated before they start. This is the way Russia seems to fight in this war. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 another morale booster a la Putin Some wounded Russian soldiers find compensation elusive, despite Putin’s pledge | Reuters 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 RU Nat claim drone that struck Sebastopol HQ was launched from 3 km distance Quote The drone that hit the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was launched at a distance of three kilometers. So, from the territory of Crimea, of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 (edited) Reading RU Nats I got feel that recent RU killing UKR POW, RU mining Donetsk and I suspect even Crimea HQ strike (they call it terror strike) are all parts of new Kremlin attempt at increasing RU public hysteria and hatred toward UKR. Which means they are preparing something. So, I would say it confirms what @Haiduk says. [UPDATE] Look at what they say Quote All this is evidence that Ukraine is a typical terrorist structure. Like the Caucasus Emirate or ISIS. Therefore, all further actions of Kiev will be carried out in the same logic... It may not be a strike. There may be a seizure of a civilian object somewhere in Russia. Again, the terrorists would have done exactly that. There is strong hysterical RU screaming that UKR is terrorist state. Previously it was much less loud. And if RU says UKR is terrorist state then by RU scenario there should be real bloody terror strike. Me reading RU tea leaves think RU will do another, this time much more horrible and bloody, false flag terrorist strike in RU. Then they even go either for new offensive or even for mobilization. P.S. I do not know how RU will get out of this mess peacefully. RU Nats are spilling too much blood... Edited July 31, 2022 by Grigb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Today's morning map 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Hypothetical map of UKR progress near Izium from WarMonitor twitter. There are no official confirmations, and only hints in some our twitters, but from reports of General Staff from this area we can see, that combat actions are developing near villages, which were occupied by Russians several weeks ago 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Maybe that Kherson pocket is a trap of a different sort. UA ‘declares’ attack on Kherson, RA moves forces there, UA cuts retreat. Now you have many good RA soldiers in that pocket that can’t be easily transferred elsewhere. So you attack elsewhere where the forces are missing. Don’t need to (really) attack Kherson where they actually are. Very Sun-Tzuish. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Iraq media Sabreen News issued information, that Azerbaidzhan could give to Ukraine 32 guided bombs QFAB-250LG (upgrading of dumb bomb FAB-250), which they used with success during Nagornyi Karabakh war as Su-25 payload. But there is no official confirmation. Also it is doubtly UKR Su-25 can use guided bombs, because even on upgraded version Su-25M1 wasn't any upgrades of laser targeting system "Klyon" which useful only for Kh-25 and Kh-29 guided missiles. More likely they can be dropped from Su-24M bombers, but I don't know about compatibility of their inbuilt Kayra-24 laser/TV targeting system with this equipment In Ukraine also was an attempt to make upgrade of dumb FABs to guide bombs (I can't recall when exactly), but MoD rejected this program, because "too expensive". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, poesel said: Maybe that Kherson pocket is a trap of a different sort. UA ‘declares’ attack on Kherson, RA moves forces there, UA cuts retreat. Now you have many good RA soldiers in that pocket that can’t be easily transferred elsewhere. So you attack elsewhere where the forces are missing. Don’t need to (really) attack Kherson where they actually are. Very Sun-Tzuish. Maybe. But Russian generals can think so too. I believe our General Staff knows what they do, because taking into account what forces Russians are moving now to the south, the bear can tear off the trap and to catch the hunter himself... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 The second strike on Melitopol for today. The first was at 1:30 of night on the city outskirts, locals have wriiten about detoation sounds. The second was about hour ago on the airtfield. Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast - yestrdays evening the second strike at yacht club area, being struck day ago. Russian missile strike from Alchevsk this night - Iskanders on Bakmut, Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk. 13 missiles total, according to local reports 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlsatianFelix Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Saturday's ISW report detailed Russia's logistics problems in Kherson, but also this tidbit: This is interesting because I don't often read reports about Ukraine disrupting an attack before it happens. Usually the attack is launched then beaten back. Reading the tea leaves tells me that Ukraine has brought up significant artillery and ISR resources to this particular area, as it has been a hotspot for quite a while. This allowed Ukraine to not only receive early warning but to do something proactive with that information. This is not a good sign for the Russians in Kherson if they can't even get a relatively small scale attack off the starting line. Too soon to say if this is a one-off or a pattern, but I suspect (more tea leaves!) that this will become a pattern. I don't think Russian forces will cease trying to launch attacks even if they keep getting defeated before they start. This is the way Russia seems to fight in this war. Steve I've been following Special Kherson Cat on twitter. He's familiar with the geography and uses telephone contacts with people on location in Kherson to confirm his posts. In the last 1-2 week his posts have shifted. They are now military intel specific and timely. Many posts now are clandestine videos confirming damage to infrastructure or reports on Russian unit concentrations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 (edited) 39 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said: I've been following Special Kherson Cat on twitter. He's familiar with the geography and uses telephone contacts with people on location in Kherson to confirm his posts. In the last 1-2 week his posts have shifted. They are now military intel specific and timely. Many posts now are clandestine videos confirming damage to infrastructure or reports on Russian unit concentrations. Yup, Mr Cat is probably the best source for this kind of info, he hardly re-posts stuff, most of his info is first hand. I could also recommend the Typical Donetsk profile, it's less English user friendly, but also get's a lot of direct accounts on stuff: https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk Edited July 31, 2022 by Huba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 (edited) Russians hold some repair works on Antonivskyi bridge Edited July 31, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Russian journalust, staging repaired bridge in Nova Kakhovka, accidentally filmed destroyed Russian communication vehicle Redut-2US (digital radio relay comm and wireless broadband networks) Previously it was mistaken for EW assset Repellent-1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: 3. Autonomous higher level AI players Ideally you'd have a really super duper AI player (aka StratAI) that behaves just like a single battlefield commander of a particular level. This is doable, but it is extremely expensive. We're talking a few million bucks and years of development to really get it solid. However, it can be done. Then you need a slightly different AI player (aka OpAI) that is capable of higher level decision making which feeds instructions to the StratAI. Again, totally doable but very, very expensive to do. This could be skipped over and have Humans provide this sort of decision making instead of it being automated, however this would significantly slow down producing the number of iterations necessary to get a solid range of results. My perspective is from a purely business side, not military. But...in my line of work retail and wholesale optimization we try to use massive amounts of low-level granular data to continually analyze, optimize and re-calibrate the decision process. AI and machine learning entered this arena about 15 years ago. I've had the good fortune to work with some of the best in this business. Observations that may be applicable to the military front: 1. "now that we have all this data, what do we do with it?" The most effective analysis comes from very smart and deeply experienced individuals that constantly think and re-think what data to use and how to use it. Constantly changing the algorithms and/or deciding what and how information goes into the ML and AI process. 2. In retail/wholesale, the claims of success and capabilities are MUCH greater than actual results. Every systems company claims to have mastered AI/ML, but few have any verifiable results. (Lots of smoke and mirrors.) 3. "We don't have a crystal ball. We are just looking for directional guidance." Quoted about 10 years ago in the middle of a sales presentation to a large retailer by one of my associates...and I've used it many times thereafter. At this point it still takes a human to take the results and then make the best decisions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosuri Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Did not see this yet here, apologies if I missed it -- Russia trading arms for Sudanese gold in an effort to circumvent sanctions https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 (edited) "Kartograf", "Orlan-20", "Ptero" - conditional names of this Russian UAV with 80 Mp cameras for detail terrain recon in FSB service. It's only knowingly this device was developed by AFM-Servers company as mulipurpose UAV and one of modifications was developed for FSB. But this UAV wasn't officially introduced, so nobody knows it real name. The name "Ptero" is derived from the system of automatical guidance and control PteRobot, developed by the same company and used in this UAV family. During war on Donbas Russia visually lost 6 such UAVs, and since Feb 24 they lost two other, including this one. Also two "Kartografs" were shot down by Turkey's F-16 in 2015 and 2019, and one crashed in Lithuania in 2016. Photo of probably "Kartograf" remains after this shot How it looks. This one was emergency landed or supressed and landed by UKR EW in 2017 Edited July 31, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 (edited) Large explosion and fire somewhere in Kherson oblast. According to Arvelleg twitter geolocation this is filming from the left bank of Dnieper and a fire and smoke probably in the area of Kachkarivka village on the right bank, 39 km NE from Nova Kakhovka Edited July 31, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Interesting thread. The short version, their systems integration is lousy, and the designers assume vastly better trained operators than they actually have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 6 hours ago, Grigb said: Reading RU Nats I got feel that recent RU killing UKR POW, RU mining Donetsk and I suspect even Crimea HQ strike (they call it terror strike) are all parts of new Kremlin attempt at increasing RU public hysteria and hatred toward UKR. Which means they are preparing something. So, I would say it confirms what @Haiduk says. [UPDATE] Look at what they say There is strong hysterical RU screaming that UKR is terrorist state. Previously it was much less loud. And if RU says UKR is terrorist state then by RU scenario there should be real bloody terror strike. Me reading RU tea leaves think RU will do another, this time much more horrible and bloody, false flag terrorist strike in RU. Then they even go either for new offensive or even for mobilization. P.S. I do not know how RU will get out of this mess peacefully. RU Nats are spilling too much blood... I've seen sentiment asking why Kiev governmental targets aren't being destroyed for a long while. Might this Crimea attack be prepping for Russia to devastate the Kiev government district? I dunno why Russia didn't outright attack it before, I think they should have precise missiles enough, and it's a military target.....tho the value of hardening Ukrainian resistance is probably significant. I hope Zelensky has a great bunker tho I'm sure the soviets built some good stuff for him to stay in. And I hear the Rada still meets in person? Ugh I hope security measures are still in place to keep them okay, a missile during one of their sessions would be horrible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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