How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

27 minutes ago, poesel said:

Wrt to invading Crimea: should the Russian southern flank fall and Ukraine gets land access to the peninsula, they will probably use the 'cook the frog' method. Taking small strips of land step by step. Eventually dropping a shell on the Kherch bridge to remind the Russians that they only have this way out (on foot). And so on.
That way, the Russians are slowly getting used to loosing Crimea, avoiding a strong(er) reaction.

This is war, not a game of chess. You hit the enemy as hard as you can. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This is war, not a game of chess. You hit the enemy as hard as you can. 

Crimea without water is bad for RU. Damaged bridge together with disabled water supply is good hint to pack and leave. Once ordinary RU gone hit hard RU bases. Watch RU making gesture of goodwill again. 

It is one thing to defend Crimea full of RU. It is completely different when no RU around and Tatars present.

[Grigb]

Everything is according to the plan.

Quote

Russia's GDP fell by 4.9% in June, the Ministry of Economy announced.

The drop by the end of May was 4.3%. Overall, GDP decreased by 4% in the second quarter.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

8 hours ago, chrisl said:

 

Well, since nobody else went there, I'm finding it impossible to avoid going and posting the first thing that came to mind when I read that:

 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This is war, not a game of chess. You hit the enemy as hard as you can. 

Do you? I'd rather say you chose the most efficient tools at your disposal to achieve your goals. As the defender who wants to retake occupied territory, killing enemy soldiers with maximal use of force may not be your primary goal. Instead you may want to leave as much of the infrastructure intact as possible so you have to rebuild less later on. Maybe you also want to retake said territory with minimal expenditure of life on your side, because after the war someone has to actually do the rebuilding. With all the PGMs in the world you will still lose lives and destroy infrastructure. Or maybe you are just not able to hit hard enough to do the job in the most straightforward way.

If your goal is not just killing as many enemies as possible, the best idea may really be to make life for the occupying army miserable, leave them a way out and show them that the door to this way out may not stay open forever.

I guess Sun Tzu has some wise words about that.

[MSBoxer]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

"20 House Republicans who voted against anti-human trafficking bill"

It is also worth pointing out that in the US, a bill is never single topic they often contain multiple other pieces of legislation which are in no way connected to the main goal of the bill.  Legislators who vote against a bill may be all for the primary, but cannot support one or more of the "side issues".

During election years we often see "poison pills" inserted into seemingly benign legislation.  This allows one party to smear the other by stating "They voted against providing healthcare to veterans" without mentioning that there was a poison pill which would ban guns, or take away free school lunches.  This is just an example I made up, but the point is to make voting for a popular bill impossible to swallow for a candidate during a re-election campaign.

Yes, we are that screwed up

I am not saying that this was the case for the 20 republicans who voted against the bill, just pointing out that things are seldom as simple as they seem in Washington.

Edited July 28, 2022 by MSBoxer

[Grigb]

Strom is brewing - Girkin in VK reposted request for help from Syktyvkar (Komi Republic) locals.

Local authorities gave licenses to excavate white sand where unique forests are located. It will severely damage local ecosystem, but who cares (so long local authorities pay bribes and declare loyalty RU gov does not care what they do).

I am translating emotional part for you to get feel of what is brewing. 

Quote

The motherland is really in danger and none of the authorities is doing anything! Again, everything is the same as on Shies! [local protests against garbage storage RU] No, it's not the same, moronier and more brazen!!
Gentlemen in [high] positions, including law enforcement agencies and special services, are you really people with special disabilities there, in Komi? Are you actually working for foreign intelligence services in order to bring people to riots and ruin the country? Do you monitor anything at all? Do you have any contact with reality at all? Are you responsible for anything at all, or only for timely written reports that everything is calm and smooth?!

...people will be deprived of earnings or earnings. Syktyvkar residents will lose some extra work, some additions to the diet, some rest. And (attention!) as a sociologist-analyst, consultant and coach, I responsibly declare that THEY WILL BE TOTALLY DEPRIVED OF A SENSE OF FAITH IN THE EXISTING STATE SYSTEM, that it is capable of protecting and securing their lives and the lives of their children.

According to eyewitnesses, representatives of local authorities demonstrate their corruption and pursue a policy of discrediting the state financial system. They declare. that "business helps to build hospitals and kindergartens." Therefore, there is no money for kindergartens in the budget of the Region of Komi? No hospitals? And only business can build them? Therefore, it is necessary to give [them] water from the wells of residents?

Stealing from us in Russia is, alas, a familiar occurrence. Even forests and rivers. And water from wells. But please, not now. Not now!
Now the country is really undergoing a test of strength.
The state is like a rock, it cracks imperceptibly, in small cracks, without sound, but one day it just collapses.

The basic needs of citizens should not be jeopardized. Now many people say: "Never mind, somehow we will survive on potatoes and mushrooms." And if the potatoes dry up and there is nowhere to collect mushrooms? You don't have to be an analyst to guess how people will react to the same events.

Please make a repost.
Help us. So that we don't have to help you in the future.

I call RU Pressure Cooker. Others call RU a rock, it cracks imperceptibly, in small cracks, without sound, but one day it just collapses.

P.S. Girkin in VK started to name names apart from Shoigu - he named Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexey Krivoruchko who is responsible for many areas where RU army failed miserably.

 Well, even if there is no Prags among RU military soon there will be - you can negotiate with Doves/Liberals. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Grigb

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I read the fascinating analyses and I have a question. With the general consensus of the thread being that Ultranats are likely going nowhere since they can only offer endless war to the last man and nobody really wants that.

How does Crimea and the 2014 borders play into this? If Ukraine is gonna HIMARS the Kerch bridge and start moving into Crimea, is that likely to turn this into "people's war"?

As @Grigb noted, Russians do not care for russian-speakers outside of Russia even near as much as State propaganda want us to think. Putin care for LDPR and Crimea, but only as tools for his plans. He can throw them by thousands into meatgrinder as he would throw guys from Sakhalin, Buryatia or Caucasus without blink of an eye. If Putin would be out, I don't think Russians will ever die for Crimea, much less for LDPR.

Which creates difficult strategic dillema for UA  and NATO till Putin is in power. I guess there are harsh discussion right now in Washington what to do. A pitty we don't know that much about what is happening there. I have a feeling (but not observer of US politics, so could be totally wrong) that guys like Sullivan and dir. Burns would like to play this game more carefully not to enrage Russia too much.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

13 missiles hit forestry area near Honcharivske, Chernihiv oblast.

What was there, some military objects or training ground? Let's hope it is no new Desna strike.

[Ultradave]

52 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

It is also worth pointing out that in the US, a bill is never single topic they often contain multiple other pieces of legislation which are in no way connected to the main goal of the bill.  Legislators who vote against a bill may be all for the primary, but cannot support one or more of the "side issues".

During election years we often see "poison pills" inserted into seemingly benign legislation.  This allows one party to smear the other by stating "They voted against providing healthcare to veterans" without mentioning that there was a poison pill which would ban guns, or take away free school lunches.  This is just an example I made up, but the point is to make voting for a popular bill impossible to swallow for a candidate during a re-election campaign.

Yes, we are that screwed up

I am not saying that this was the case for the 20 republicans who voted against the bill, just pointing out that things are seldom as simple as they seem in Washington.

While that is true many times, for this bill this was not the case at all. (and also for several other recent bills). I read the bill to see if there was some reason they might have voted against it. It's just a few pages and deals only with human trafficking prevention and survivor support. That's it. It really is that simple.

Dave

[Ultradave]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

It is also worthy of noting that many of the same people that voted against the Ukraine legislation are also the same ones that voted against this anti-Human trafficking bill.  You can ignore the scandal aspect of the story if you like, but it kinda is relevant in a way. 

Steve

That "group" in the House seems to have one purpose in life. Make as much noise as possible and vote against EVERYTHING, no matter what the subject, no matter how beneficial it might be.

Dave

[Haiduk]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

What was there, some military objects or training ground? Let's hope it is no new Desna strike.

The home of 1st tank brigade. And large training range around. Looks like personnel was dispersed in the forest. Russians shelled also with heavy MLRS Smerch or Tornado-S. Reportedly we have a losses. 

More precise information about strike north of Kyiv - military unit was hit in Liutizh area, this is training center of GUR (Intelligence Directorate of MoD). MoD claimed one Kalibr was intercepted over Bucha querry, though recently AD command said there was no interceptions. No info about losses among militaries, just abput 5 civilans wounded and two facilities destroyed. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, Ultradave said:

While that is true many times, for this bill this was not the case at all. (and also for several other recent bills). I read the bill to see if there was some reason they might have voted against it. It's just a few pages and deals only with human trafficking prevention and survivor support. That's it. It really is that simple.

Dave

And you can add the PACT act to the list, as a whole slew of Senators "changed their mind" after initially voting for it, then voting down the slightly changed House version. Nothing in it beyond expanded medical eligibility for veterans exposed to toxic substances. Clean bill. Sorry for the continued off-topic but as a veteran, I'm struggling to understand the logic here with the "we support the military" crowd. I'll shut up now.

Dave

Edited July 28, 2022 by Ultradave

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

It is also worth pointing out that in the US, a bill is never single topic they often contain multiple other pieces of legislation which are in no way connected to the main goal of the bill.  Legislators who vote against a bill may be all for the primary, but cannot support one or more of the "side issues".

During election years we often see "poison pills" inserted into seemingly benign legislation.  This allows one party to smear the other by stating "They voted against providing healthcare to veterans" without mentioning that there was a poison pill which would ban guns, or take away free school lunches.  This is just an example I made up, but the point is to make voting for a popular bill impossible to swallow for a candidate during a re-election campaign.

Yes, we are that screwed up

I don't think the US are very special is this regard. The main difference to some other democracies is your majority voting system that basically makes it impossible to have smaller parties that tend to shake things up a bit (with other disadvantages, of course).

Anyway, I think it is a good thing in a democracy when not every politician decides along the party line. In... less democratic countries people go to jail for that. Also, we could save a lot of money otherwise by just having N politicians (with N=no. of parties in parliament) with votes according to the last election.

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The home of 1st tank brigade. And large training range around. Looks like personnel was dispersed in the forest. Russians shelled also with heavy MLRS Smerch or Tornado-S. Reportedly we have a losses. 

Damn. There are also heavy shellings along Bakhmut line. Reportedly they struck Hotel there with several victims.

 

On lighter note: a venture into magical parallel world of Russian propaganda: Note how Romania get enlarged, nicely circumventing Moldova. Poland not so much, we did not even touch Dnieper. Hungary in turn come only with one modest Ukrainian oblast.

Overall, Medvedev (here very accuratelly called "Putin's seat warmer") probably run out of light stuff and started taking crocodile.

 

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I guess Sun Tzu has some wise words about that.

He does, and it boils down to "win without fighting".  On a 1-on-1 level, if I can convince a guy - through either de-escalation or escalation - not to swing at me and then to leave the area, I win.  If war is a 'mere continuation of policy by other means', then if one side can communicate to the other that it is time to go, and they do, they the first side wins without firing a shot or with firing fewer shots - their policy goes forward.  So in the south china sea, if the US and other nations stop the FON missions, then China has won in that theatre (without firing a shot).

It is _always_ better to win without fighting, either 1-on-1 or in full on kinetic warfare.

2 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

It is also worth pointing out that in the US, a bill is never single topic they often contain multiple other pieces of legislation which are in no way connected to the main goal of the bill.  Legislators who vote against a bill may be all for the primary, but cannot support one or more of the "side issues".
[...]
Yes, we are that screwed up
 

1) sometimes it is earmarks, sometimes it is, as you say, a poison pill.  Earmarks are to flow the spoils of taxation to one's district to ensure re-election, poison pills are to disadvantage one's opponent through generation of outrage.  I think most democracies have this to one extent or another; certainly in Canada the ruling party will give bills pretty names and then excoriate people opposed to toxic inclusions and/or consequences, and many financial provisions are oriented towards friendly ridings or against opposition ridings.

Earmarks were temporarily banned in 2011, but are so popular (with Congress critters and their constituents) that they have made a comeback. They are at least somewhat transparent.

Poison pills existing in every democracy and will never go away.  The only control is free press / speech and an educated populace.

2) I call it "vibrant democracy".  Not pretty, but better than the alternatives.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Damn. There are also heavy shellings along Bakhmut line. Reportedly they struck Hotel there with several victims.

 

On lighter note: a venture into magical parallel world of Russian propaganda: Note how Romania get enlarged, nicely circumventing Moldova. Poland not so much, we did not even touch Dnieper. Hungary in turn come only with one modest Ukrainian oblast.

Overall, Medvedev (here very accuratelly called "Putin's seat warmer") probably run out of light stuff and started taking crocodile.

 

Even in Medvedev's fantasy world, Russia can't occupy Kyiv.

Seriously, going by some of his latest posts on the internet Medvedev seems like a lunatic.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This is war, not a game of chess. You hit the enemy as hard as you can. 

It's rather the other way round: in chess, you hit as hard as possible. There are only two parties - a zero-sum game. Your win is the loss of the other.

In war, there are more parties and people have to live on the battlefield afterwards. If this war had been chess, Russia would have just nuked Ukraine into oblivion.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

It is _always_ better to win without fighting, either 1-on-1 or in full on kinetic warfare.

Unfortunately this isn't always true. There are cases where waging (victorious) war is itself an objective. Bismarck wanted that in 1870, and no amount of French concessions would be an acceptable substitute of war then, the objective was to unify everyone by fighting the enemy. In 1 on 1 setting, there are also situations when one person just wants to punch another (cause he's a drunk aggressive f**k for example) and there's no other way to accomplish that objective than actually doing it.

You could make an argument that in present case, performing a successful "special operation" (in the way we agree it was envisioned by Putin, not the debacle it turned into) was an objective too. Putin wouldn't gain as much politically from Ukraine budging to his demands and even ceding Donbas/ "demilitarizing" as he would by swiftly conquering it by force.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

Crimea: perhaps we are counting our chickens before they hatch, no?   First is Kherson, about which many of us are confident will fall due to lack of supply.  Then there's the landbridge, what I call Melitopol front.  Plus need to clear RU away from north of Kharkiv.  There's a lot to do before crimea, though Putin's fear of losing could be good fun to watch.  Maybe he'll do like Hitler and park a huge force there (17th army, I believe), able to do nothing but sit.  

Anyone read Forczyk's WW2 crimea book?  There's a bit where Stalin wants to clear crimea but RU general says something like "why attack them?  they are in a prison camp where they have to feed themselves".

[Butschi]

55 minutes ago, acrashb said:

It is _always_ better to win without fighting

I wouldn't put it in such absolute terms because winning a battle does not automatically win the war. Destroying your enemy's capability to fight the next battle is a valid goal, too.

[Taranis]

"Daria Steniukova, 31, yoga coach poses for a photo during the wedding photo session in her bombed-out apartment in Vinnytsya, July 16, 2022. OLEKSANDR DEMIANIV / AFP"

"Ukrainian soldier Vitaliy (R), 25, kisses his wife Anastasia, outside one of the city's registry offices, just after the wedding ceremony, in kyiv, July 23, 2022. SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP"

In their region of Poltava in east-central Ukraine, there were 1,600 marriages in the first six weeks after the invasion, compared to 1,300 for the whole of 2020.

In kyiv, the rise is even more pronounced with 9,120 marriages recorded in five months, more than eight times more than the 1,110 ceremonies that took place during the same period in 2021.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

Donetsk area :

"Russian troops resumed assault on Avdiivka and Pisky with tanks, howitzers and MLRS. Russian soldiers using Ukrainian uniform"
 

 

[FancyCat]

Reuters has released a report on traitors in Ukraine. Some interesting tidbits. SBU head Bakanov (former now that Zelensky dismissed him) left Kiev for at least 3 days after the invasion, with indications that SBU staff were unable to maintain contact with him during that time period. 

SBU shot and killed a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team while trying to arrest him, early in the war, but the Military Intelligence Agency of Ukraine, GUR, says Denys Kirieiev was a officer of theirs, Reuters has a source stating that Kirieiev had access to the highest levels of the Russian government and was providing vital info on the invasion back to Kiev.

Tbh I'm not sure if defending the approach to Kiev by turning Chornobyl into a war zone is a good idea that requires punishment of the people who surrendered rather than defend it as asserted in the Reuters piece.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-saboteurs/

 

[danfrodo]

Interesting Kherson summary at DailyKos today:  LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/28/2113086/-Ukraine-update-Taking-out-the-Dnipro-River-bridges-creates-opportunities-that-go-way-beyond-Kherson

This fella seems to share my hope that RU pumps more into Kherson, but also mentions something I hadn't given much thought to.  Once RU strips the line elsewhere, probably Melitopol front, and puts them in Putin's Pocket, they can't get out.  Which means UKR could attack the landbridge front w/o worrying about those stranded RU units hitting them from the west.  

Also, he mentions estimate of 225 trucks per day needed to fully supply the kessel forces.  Gonna be hard to do that w a jerry-rigged ferry and some pontoon bridges that only last a few hours before being shelled.  

This game is, most definitely, afoot!