How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

24 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I know they had. But back then Greece (and again in the 60s) also had concetration camps for communists, Belgians had zoos with humans from African colonies, South Africa had apartheid and Blacks could be shot for going to school in US. But we don't have these anymore (ok apart from Blacks being shot) and neither have the Russians. 

Russia is not Nazi Germany but it can become if the conditions grow worse and some "gifted" preacher emerges.

 

Do Greek camps for communists = German Nazi concentration camps? 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Grigb

[panzermartin]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Do Greek camps for communists = German Nazi concentration camps? 

 

 

 

 

No, nothing really compares to german engineering.

On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  

[Audgisil]

With the discussions about the maintenance and oversight required to maintain nuclear capabilities, I thought I would post a link to this old video from John Oliver. Of course, he's going to cherry pick certain situations and events to highlight his points, but the very fact that he can even make some of those points and support them with anecdotel evidence says something.

Granted, the video is roughly seven years old and a lot may (or may not) have changed since then within the U.S. Military; however, if the U.S. military has these kinds of issues, just imagine the kind of Job that Russia has likely done in maintaining their nuclear weapons and capabilities. - craptastic is probably an understatement.

 

 

[Butschi]

49 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Russia is not Nazi Germany

Ineed. There sure are Nazis in Russia but as bad as Russia is right now, it still has some way to go to reach the level of the 3rd Reich.

[dan/california]

17 hours ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, I don't get that. Currently Russia is not using nuclear weapons, so it is obvious they don't just use them because they can. (In that case I would agree) If they use them to prevent imminent defeat that would not tell the Finns (to get back to that example) that they will get nuked no matter how they behave. It will only tell them that Russia not only has these weapons but is also willing to employ them. Nuclear deterrence only works if the other side knows that you have those weapons not only to look good at parades but is also willing to employ them.

 

48 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The US spends a LOT on testing, both computer modeling and non-nuclear physical testing, plus the money spent on maintenance, to ensure the nuclear arsenal is "ready."  This is because we also, while not ratifying the CTBT, abide by it and have not tested a nuclear weapons in a long time. I know that people who do that work will say the verification that they do assures the weapons will work. I don't know much about the Russians, unfortunately.

Someone a bit back (sorry I didn't quote it), mentioned observer verification. What was said is correct. They are verifying launch vehicles and warheads, but not anything about whether they will work or not. That's a very involved process (see above about spending a LOT  )

Part of the research work I did was to come up with better ways for inspectors to verify stored, disassembled warheads. Say you can't physically touch them, weigh them, take a sample, etc, but you CAN from a reasonably close distance read the gamma radiation they give off. Can you then verify that the entire warhead is there? You want to know that it hasn't been opened and the whole inside taken out and left only a shell so that it appears visually to be whole. Verifying non-diversion of nuclear material. Securing this material is something we (the US) spent quite a bit helping the Russians to improve. It's been a good investment. Turns out this is an extremely hard problem to solve and requires some sophisticated mathematical techniques to converge to a reasonable answer. One of my technical papers could be summarized as: "Here are 4 new ways we tried to solve this and none were completely satisfactory. One was sort of ok, but not great"  It actually went over pretty well, because no one had tried these before but several in the audience had wondered. Negative data is still good data, and people won't waste time!

Dave

Great post!

 

 

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The US spends a LOT on testing, both computer modeling and non-nuclear physical testing, plus the money spent on maintenance, to ensure the nuclear arsenal is "ready."  This is because we also, while not ratifying the CTBT, abide by it and have not tested a nuclear weapons in a long time. I know that people who do that work will say the verification that they do assures the weapons will work. I don't know much about the Russians, unfortunately.

 

Cheryl Rofer and others have pointed out that the Russian nuclear arsenal uses plutonium that is not as pure as we use. That means that the 'pits' (i.e. the fusion part of the bombs) need to be remanufactured on a regular basis and that's a process that the USG can see occurring. In other words, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that those maintenance programs have been ticking over regularly since 1991. Does that conform with your observations?

[Beleg85]

  

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

No, nothing really compares to german engineering.

On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia

Yep, they killed Trotsky with a pickaxe. To kill Navalny, they used specially designed nerve agent. A progress.

(Or would be a progress, if they didn't **** this up too).

Are you sure they did moved from that time that much? Because frankly even Bolsheviks were better at creating contexts for genocidal interventions in other countries than is Putin. They certainly basically think in the same, Darwinian way about international politics and spread very similar relativistic propaganda -sorry to say, but you have inclinations to be hooked upon that thinking, mate: "Russia was forced into this war"- that is plain bull**** from Chomsky/Mearshaimer/Pope Francis school of moral void. And factualy untrue; just as claim that Russia was somehow poor underdog of international system (opposite was true).

On further note- they also still use indiscriminate shellings of cities, rapes, massive forced deportations (ca. 1.4 mln people, some moved to Syberia since 24 February- we forget about that, right?), false flags, extrajudicial killings in country and abroad, cyberattacks (ok, found a new one!), huge bribery actions, meddling in elections, etc. They bloody even steal toilets... If my grandma would be living, she would have a constant backlash from childhood seeing this. And she remembered 1920, 1939 and 1944. All same story, back and again.

 

Sorry, I don't see any way Russia moved forward. Nor internally, nor as stable member of global security system. In fact it crawled backward compared to 90's. And the fact that their elites now wear Armani suits and not cotton vatniks changes nothing.

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

It does say a lot when your neighbours' national anthems have titles like "Poland's Cause is Not Yet Lost" and "Ukraine Has Not Yet Perished..."

Very good point. A pitty we don't have Baltic members, they probably have something very similar.

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Ineed. There sure are Nazis in Russia but as bad as Russia is right now, it still has some way to go to reach the level of the 3rd Reich.

I don't think there is wide sense in comparing them, since we can simply use Russia's own history. But it need some lectures to understand that from Western/Non-European perspective. 3rd Reich is simply much better known as point of reference. Disregard for Ukrainians for example can be much better explained in superiority complex terms, not race. Which @Grigb explain here many times.

4 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Of 2 or 3 helis that were shot down in the initial assault, one of them contained the commander of the grouping which significantly contributed to their post-landing paralysis.

Well, it doesn't speak highly about their training if loss of one commander' heli on Extremely Important Dangerous Mission deep into enemy territory stopped them. They shouldn't move without him by this stage? It's level of "very early commando raids from WWII" incompetence.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No, nothing really compares to german engineering.

Right here is the reason why there will always be a split between "old" and "new" Europe. Significant part of "old" Europeans has no clue that "German engineering" was not unique and that it was easily matched by RU brutality.

quote from RU article comparing German Nazi concentration camps and RU Gulag

Quote

As we can see, the catastrophe in the peaceful 1932 and the first quarter of 1933 in Sazlag [Central Asian Correctional Labor Camp of GULAG] was so large-scale that the average monthly mortality rate there in October-December 1932 and January-March 1933 was not just comparable [to German camps], it was sometimes :

1. Worse than similar indicators in June and August 1943 in Buchenwald, Dachau, Sachsenhausen, Mauthausen.
2. Sometimes it was inferior, and sometimes it exceeded the mortality rate in the concentration part of Auschwitz.
3. In November 1932 and sometimes at the level and worse than Flossenburg 1943.
4. Worse than Ravensbruck, Gross-Rosen, Bergen-Belsen July-August 1943.
5. Sometimes it was inferior, and sometimes it exceeded the mortality rate in Stutthof, worse than Neuengamme in July August 1943.
6. Only Lublin, the female segment of the concentration part of Auschwitz in July 1943., The Stutthof of July 1943 showed a mortality rate a couple of percent worse than the Sazlag of 1932-1933.

...both the GULAG and the German system of labor camps are obvious negative anomalies in the global history of penitentiary systems of the XX century, because tens and hundreds of thousands of prisoners died in the Soviet and German concentration camp systems. Such a scale of deaths in penitentiary institutions is completely unimaginable either in the Russian Empire or in developed European countries modern to the Soviet Union.

This statement is proved by figures and statistics.

 

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  

On a serious note, you just downplayed GULAG comparing it to Greek camps. And then you attempted to whitewash it claiming times were different. Why don't you say the same for German camps? You cannot because German camps were obviously evil. Just like RU

But even before that you made questionable statements for the sake of RU. Look at what you claimed yesterday, quote: What dominant and shallow media you are talking about. You mean the ones have been bombarding us with the evil Russia thing since forever.

As I just demonstrated RU deserves to be called Evil (reminder that unlike Germans RU never rejected their Evil ideology). Yet for you Western media stating simple fact is somehow unacceptable bias. 

 

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  

No, they didn't. They just learned to call their camps differently - Filtration camps (see Chechnia). + logistics and technology became better, so they managed to decrease overall mortality. But tortures become more elaborate - in USSR they did not have portable drills to drill knees (I recently quoted use of drills against UKR). 

Reality is different from fantasies in a safe place far from RU.  

[Beleg85]

https://m.censor.net/ru/news/3356186/komandir_28yi_ombr_vsu_vitaliyi_gulyaev_pogib_v_nikolaevskoyi_oblasti_foto

It seems Ukrainian 28th Brigade lost its commander in Mikolaiv, Col. Guliayev. I think it is second commander of unit this size that gave his life in this war, excluding Airmen.

49 minutes ago, Grigb said:

On a serious note, you just downplayed GULAG comparing it to Greek camps. And then you attempted to whitewash it claiming times were different. Why don't you say the same for German camps? You cannot because German camps were obviously evil. Just like RU

But even before that you made questionable statements for the sake of RU. Look at what you claimed yesterday, quote: What dominant and shallow media you are talking about. You mean the ones have been bombarding us with the evil Russia thing since forever.

As I just demonstrated RU deserves to be called Evil (reminder that unlike Germans RU never rejected their Evil ideology). Yet for you Western media stating simple fact is somehow unacceptable bias. 

49 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Reality is different from fantasies in a safe place far from RU.  

This.

Also, i would add that Russian prison culture -Zeks, wory, all that stuff- is still in place since GULAG times. I don't like the guy, but poor Navalny is probably being very slowly killed now in something called lagr- which provides very similar dehumanizing effect toward prisoners to old Russian penal colonies.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[Ultradave]

55 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Cheryl Rofer and others have pointed out that the Russian nuclear arsenal uses plutonium that is not as pure as we use. That means that the 'pits' (i.e. the fusion part of the bombs) need to be remanufactured on a regular basis and that's a process that the USG can see occurring. In other words, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that those maintenance programs have been ticking over regularly since 1991. Does that conform with your observations?

I can provide some general info. Getting weapons grade Pu is a function of not keeping it in the reactor too long so that it minimizes the amount of Pu-239. You want pure Pu-238. Then you have to chemically separate it from the spent fuel (from leftover U and fission products). Russia has those processes, as do we and any other nuclear power (I think - not sure about Pakistan and India, but I think they probably do). The short fuel burn to minimize Pu-239 is easily controlled.

So impurities could be Pu-239 or could be other isotopes from the spent fuel from inefficient Pu separation processes.

Incidentally, ALL reactors produce Pu, however electric power reactors produce a LOT of Pu-239 in addition to Pu-239 making the Pu completely unsuitable for weapons use. And it's physically impossible to separate or enrich plutonium to eliminate the 239 or concentrate the 238. Cannot be done.

Dave

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

As we can see, the catastrophe in the peaceful 1932 and the first quarter of 1933 in Sazlag [Central Asian Correctional Labor Camp of GULAG] was so large-scale that the average monthly mortality rate there in October-December 1932 and January-March 1933 was not just comparable [to German camps], it was sometimes :

1. Worse than similar indicators in June and August 1943 in Buchenwald, Dachau, Sachsenhausen, Mauthausen.
2. Sometimes it was inferior, and sometimes it exceeded the mortality rate in the concentration part of Auschwitz.
3. In November 1932 and sometimes at the level and worse than Flossenburg 1943.
4. Worse than Ravensbruck, Gross-Rosen, Bergen-Belsen July-August 1943.
5. Sometimes it was inferior, and sometimes it exceeded the mortality rate in Stutthof, worse than Neuengamme in July August 1943.
6. Only Lublin, the female segment of the concentration part of Auschwitz in July 1943., The Stutthof of July 1943 showed a mortality rate a couple of percent worse than the Sazlag of 1932-1933.

...both the GULAG and the German system of labor camps are obvious negative anomalies in the global history of penitentiary systems of the XX century, because tens and hundreds of thousands of prisoners died in the Soviet and German concentration camp systems. Such a scale of deaths in penitentiary institutions is completely unimaginable either in the Russian Empire or in developed European countries modern to the Soviet Union.

You already quoted the difference yourself there. The quote is about labor camps. It talks about the concentration camp part of Auschwitz. Not the extermination camp. Those were rather unique, I think. You can argue that if they compare mortality, who cares about how they did it. I still think, there is a difference in forced labor, not caring that people die in the process and sending them directly to the gas chambers.

Anyway, we should not get into a competition on who had the bestest evil empire.

And I still stand by what I said earlier: modern day Russia, as bad as it is, is not on par with Nazi Germany and also, I think, not with the USSR under Stalin. We don't do us any favour if we neglect to see nuances.

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And I still stand by what I said earlier: modern day Russia, as bad as it is, is not on par with Nazi Germany and also, I think, not with the USSR under Stalin. We don't do us any favour if we neglect to see nuances.

Oh, sure they are not. Btw. Death Camps were rather comparable to Lubianka, Katyń or Solovets Islands.

However, comparisions between filtration camps (happening right now in Ukraine), zachistki with torture and rape chambers, mass deportations and many other things actually put Putin's Russia closer to Stalin than for example Khrushchev when comes to international politics.

You are right the analogies could only carry us that far, it's better to analyze every case separatelly. However, indifference to suffering is something we should never nourish nor explain as "realization of national interest".

Edited July 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[MSBoxer]

Sorry, but arguing about the degree of evil is pointless.  Systematic murder, rape, torture or abduction of civilians  is evil.  Arguing over who was more efficient is a waste of time, it can dehumanize the victims and potentially be used to excuse the perpetrator. 

If you want to go full Stalin "a single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic" then have at it, but that carries no water with me.

Seriously would you say "Sorry about your family, but you do realize that in the past it would have been 10 families."

And yes, I believe that the U.S. use of internment camps in WWII was evil born out of prejudice and paranoia. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by MSBoxer

[Vet 0369]

43 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

And yes, I believe that the U.S. use of internment camps in WWII was evil born out of prejudice and paranoia. 

This. No country in the world, today, or in the past is exempt from bigotry and prejudice, and no group is exempt from them either. The types of statements that the above post refers to are universal to the entire race, and attempts to excuse them by saying that “My use of (your term here) camps weren’t as evil as yours” is just an attempt to separate you (not the author of the quoted post) from the “evils” of theirs.”

[asurob]

14 hours ago, Butschi said:

Want to elaborate? I doubt it. Maybe we Europeans think in a different way and that is why I have a hard time believing such statements. And I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings. However, so far the US, just like every other NATO country have shown zero inclination to escalate too far, much less intervene militarily. Risking nuclear annihilation for the sake of a country they haven't given any guarantees? I mean, we are not talking about risking the lives of professional soldiers in a far off country here, we are talking about potentially massive civilian losses on the homefront. I don't think Biden would risk it and I doubt even Trump would. That kind of intervention, although it may be the right thing to do, just sounds too much like Hollywood and not like what happens in reality.

If the Russians start tossing around nukes...even just tactical ones.  There will be a response.  Now it likely will be tit for tat.  But there will be a response.  I'm sorry you don't think much of Americans and I get why because yeah we have fought a couple of dumb wars recently.  But, the one thing we dislike is a bully and if you let the Russians get away with one nuke, before you know it, there will be two...and so on...

So as I said before...yes.  Bank on it.

[billbindc]

"Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian transport facilities in Kherson Oblast to impede maneuverability and logistics support. This activity is consistent with support to an active counteroffensive or conditions-setting for an upcoming counteroffensive."

Fog eating snow? 

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-24

[Offshoot]

Given the recent discussion on the state of Russian technology and engineering, will this be modelled in CM?

It is claimed to be the barrel of a BMP. Posted on the Ukraine reddit (no video to worry about autoplay) but without information on it's original source.

If it's bogus, it is still an interesting way to troll the Russians.

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Offshoot

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Given the recent discussion on the state of Russian technology and engineering, will this be modelled in CM? It is claimed to be

Can you be more specific? The micro-level stuff (i.e. what shows up on a CM-scale battlefield) is not what is (generally) failing currently.

Edited July 25, 2022 by akd

[Offshoot]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Can you be more specific? The micro-level stuff (i.e. what shows up on a CM-scale battlefield) is not what is (generally) failing currently.

I had my own technology failure and a premature posting. The CM reference is just a joke.

[dan/california]

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2022/07/20/software-developers-aspire-to-forecast-who-will-win-a-battle

A rundown of various military sim and simulation software. I am quite peeved Combat Mission did not make the list. Also it specifically mentions that the Ukrainian military is asking for more help than it is getting in this regard, they specifically mentioned mission planning and simulation software would save lives. Steve might want to see if Haiduk can get somebody on the phone.

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Given the recent discussion on the state of Russian technology and engineering, will this be modelled in CM?

It is claimed to be the barrel of a BMP. Posted on the Ukraine reddit (no video to worry about autoplay) but without information on it's original source.

If it's bogus, it is still an interesting way to troll the Russians.

 

I really want to know what the measurement was at the other end. I guess we already knew what Russian quality control was....

[G.I. Joe]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I really want to know what the measurement was at the other end. I guess we already knew what Russian quality control was....

To borrow Gandhi's quip about Western civilization - "it would be a very good idea..."

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-mariupol-azovstal.html

I don't love the tone, but it has a LOT of details.

[Machor]

Dropping by with Coke & Stripper news:

Ukraine war: Russian investigator says 92 Ukrainians charged

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62287502

Quote

 

Moscow has charged 92 members of the Ukrainian armed forces with crimes against humanity, the head of Russia's investigative committee has said.

Alexander Bastrykin told government news site Rossiiskaya Gazeta that more than 1,300 criminal investigations had been launched.

He also proposed an international tribunal backed by countries including Bolivia, Iran and Syria.

Some 96 people, including 51 armed forces commanders, are wanted, he said.

The Ukrainians were involved in "crimes against the peace and security of humanity", he told the newspaper.

...

The Kremlin denies all war crimes, or that it has been targeting civilians. It has regularly blamed Ukraine for shelling its own infrastructure and killing its own civilians - accusations which have been widely dismissed by international leaders.

Mr Bastrykin accused the West of openly sponsoring "Ukrainian nationalism" so a UN-backed trial "is extremely doubtful".

...

Mr Bastrykin instead proposed an international tribunal should be set up with countries that have "an independent position on the Ukrainian issue" - in particular Syria, Iran and Bolivia.

Along with hundreds of Ukrainian military and political targets, he said investigations are underway into Ukrainian health ministry employees who he accused, without providing evidence, of developing weapons of mass destruction.