How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In that time our AD Command claimed this is our SAM work. They wrote enemy Su-35 attcked a pair of our Su-25 in Nova Kakhovka area, but was shot down. Let's see what type this jet was indeed.

Seems the reliable Russian channels are claiming own AD did it (and it is pretty deep behind front), but maybe this is a strange coping mechanism (“Ukrainians can’t shoot us down! Only we can shoot down our own!”)

[poesel]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

If you were to pick one answer, would you say that people in Germany are more concerned/scared by this situation, or annoyed/ outright furious? 

Concerned and annoyed - concerned mainly about prices and annoyed, that our government has brought us to this situation (= dependency on Russian gas).
Not scared, not furious.

[akd]

Nice drone video of Javelin killing a 4th GTD T-80BV:

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

Mode interesting stuff on, RU conscription:

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Have we seen this new complete insanity yet?

Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-losing-because-ukraine-104546288.html

 

Well, the Ukrainians already use cyborgs since 2014, so I guess bio-engineered mutant soldiers is just the next step.

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Oh please. Like it was about money for Poland. We bought 250 brand new M1s from US  instead. And got 116 used  "for free" - only that many, cause we can't afford to maintain more, they are just too expensive to run. US is still making a killing on that deal. The problem with DE proposal was that it was just a homeopathic amount, and way too late. 

What I was hinting at was that DE has hardly anything to offer regarding heavy land forces equipment, both due to not maintaining any reserves, and not having meaningful production capacity anymore, and can't be a serious partner in the defence business in anything but total peace conditions. 

And as I said, it's not about bashing, it is just that the state of affairs that was bared by the war in UA is not only sad, it is outright scary. To the point that Poland has to review it's security arrangements and give up on it's biggest partner in armor, cause he's just not up to the task. IMO  it calls for a certain amount of outrage on our part. 

I think Germany at the moment can produce 2 or 3 Leopard tanks per month. It will take at least a year to double that number. Poland decided in 2021 to buy M1's if I'm not mistaken. If they ordered Leo2's instead perhaps Germany would have increased production capability by now and could deliver more tanks each month. But that's not what Poland really wants, I think. Instead it makes demands  Germany at the moment can't possibly meet, cries 'it's an outrage' and continues to remove itself from the EU and it's rules of democracy and justice. With friends like that...

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Detail Command may be back on the rise.  

Get up. Do your fkg job.

[JonS]

 

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

the radar cannot be used accurately except against targets with very large radar cross-sections (i.e., major warships or bridges).

Russian attacked large targets - plant facilities or some large buildings. Two missiles launched on Kremenchuk factory exploded one in 500 m from other. One locked the mall in 100 m from factory wall, other hit near one of factory facilities. In other known case missile hit very close to 9storey building and directly in pension in Serhiivka, causing 21 deaths. So, their accuracy enough to hit large objects or area objects, for which they were designed.  

Edited July 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Seems the reliable Russian channels are claiming own AD did it (and it is pretty deep behind front), but maybe this is a strange coping mechanism (“Ukrainians can’t shoot us down! Only we can shoot down our own!”)

Is that the same one from a few days ago, or are they celebrating a second glorious friendly fire?

And that Javelin video... again, what is with the single tank driving around seemingly without any purpose and absolutely no support?  Sheesh.

Steve

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

Seems the reliable Russian channels are claiming own AD did it (and it is pretty deep behind front), but maybe this is a strange coping mechanism (“Ukrainians can’t shoot us down! Only we can shoot down our own!”)

This depth enough to be in the range of S-300PS - 75 km, when closest distance of frontline to Nova Kahovka outskirts is about 40-45 km

Edited July 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well it was a matter of time until someone brought this up.  Watching the video now and it kinda sounds like an academic semantics argument up to the 1 hour mark.  I really like the link back to the 19th century and colonial wars but did not hear the most interesting leap.  Auftragstaktik, as a concept as we envision it...no matter where it came from has a very long history in "the way of war of the savages".

If one studies pre-history warfare, indigenous warfare and/or war amongst horse borne tribes from the steppes to the American West, "mission command" was simply an extension of a way of life.  Warrior based culture did not have hierarchical chains of command we see in modern militaries.  For example, in the Comanche culture a war leader was followed only as long as he was winning, often by extended family members.  There was no legal constraints nor punishment for leaving a war party; there were for cowardice in battle, but this was a cultural stigma as opposed to a formal legal mechanism.

In Europe, Central Asia and the Far East as armies got bigger the ability to move and fight larger formations required a whole system of command, control and training - we invented "formation" so that mass human power could be marshalled, sustained and directed. To do this we had to remove human agency from those standing "on the line".  Tales of 19th century officer standing tall as cannon balls flew at their heads is a poignant example of the power of formation and conformity.  This system worked great for phalanx, pikes, muskets and rifles - mission command was relegated to the cavalry as an enabler arm for the most part.  And when cavalry was decisive it had to mass up old school regardless and take the guns to the front

Very nice summarise. However, just to clarify (not nitpicking) from pre-modern perspective not all close order infantry units devoid soldiers of agency; very nature of close combat in pre-gunpowder era made impossible to turn warrior into automaton, regardless how strict was discipline (the only exception seem to be Macedonian phalanx- but not necessarly its Greek counterpart). This is one of the breaktroughts in our understanding of pre-modern close combat that was put forward in lats 30-40 years thanks to works Keegan, V.D. Hanson or Goldsworthy. Btw. we just lately started to "unchant" our understanding of ancient Greek/Roman warfare from "mechanical" and "disciplinarian" Prussian school- it's mindblowing how these guys still influence our understanding of how Ancients foughts. That is, among others, why I always hate when somebody writes about "fighting machines" when describing any military structure before XIX cent.

If we get back to Antiquity, actually first "mission command" idea came with Romans. Their manipules were much more flexible and elastic than phalanxes, and we have plenty of specific instances when even lower commanders (centurions or younger officers) acted on their own bringing victory against more static/dispersed enemies. So there is nothing new under the sun here- it was expicitly stated by Polibios and in several other works.

Concept of soldier as "background to his musket" started to appear late in XVI/XVII cent. after which then developed into classical codified linear drill maybe around 1700+. Only by this time size of  "killing zone" was usually enough for soldiers to stand down in line, concentrate on loading his musket and praying the other one side will broke down first, even despite human debris of his comrades being splashed around. Even M.Foucault-hardly a military historian- had some very interesting concepts that this automatization of presence came together only because change in power structures/military technology during Enlightment. Before that battlefields were still full of "free-roaming" gentlemen with halbards and swords that were rather only roughly formed.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I like to think we got the idea from the colonial wars of the 19th century and its philosophical influence on a generation of officers in the late 19th century. 

If I remember works on history of Enlightment Military concepts (would need to search for titles) they claimed that at least in British and French Empires lesson from frontier, colonial warfare were collectively forgot every time or deemed unsutaible for european battlefields. Only French-Prussian war and Boer wars changed attitude somehow, when it was simply impossible to keep long and dense firing line as basic formation. But could be wrong here.

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Just another example of Polish blackmail and more proof that they always and only have their own interest at heart. This doesn't bode well for the future of the EU, mark my words.

Yeah, words marked. Not that they are especially wise, since you clearly are biased and have no idea what the issue is about. Early in war there were apparently behind-door talks when Germany stated it will be able to replace at least part of our tank fleet if we gave our tanks to Ukrainians in reasonable time, but as it came out it was just another example of scholzing. Sorry, but everybody would prefer 100 dusty US marines Abramses in 3 years than one Leo2 every month in a decade. And regardles of your opinion, all NATO higher officers seem to agree frontier state needs sizeable mechanized force if it borders with Russia/Belarus. Independence of Baltic states also hangs on Suwałki gap, so I wouldn't be so arrogant when describing those concerns.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Beleg85

[Jammason]

10 hours ago, Zeleban said:

it seems that in the Ukrainian General Staff they read our forum. The Antonovsky Bridge has just been struck. Unfortunately, the video is too big and cannot be attached to the message. The bridge appears to have received minor damage.

[+ various Kerch comments]

Bridges are notoriously difficult to take down, especially those of the Kerch size/construction (Thanh Hóa Bridge, anyone?). Here's an interesting video showing the difficulties involved, as well as at least one reason to not bring down the Kerch (give your enemy a path to retreat).

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian attacked large targets - plant facilities or some large buildings. Two missiles launched on Kremenchuk factory exploded one in 500 m from other. One locked the mall in 100 m from factory wall, other hit near one of factory facilities. In other known case missile hit very close to 9storey building and directly in pension in Serhiivka, causing 21 deaths. So, their accuracy enough to hit large objects or area objects, for which they were designed.  

Yes, but as your post itself says, it will just lock on to the largest thing it can "see" with the primitive radar. Even then interference from the ground will make it difficult to maintain the lock. That's why even with the radar it's struggling to get a direct hit on even large targets, like at Kremenchuk:





Of course, the warhead is huge, so even with a miss it will do a lot of damage.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Machor]

7 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

And...will be shocked if Erdogan aligns himself and Turkey more closely with Putin and Russia.   Talk about joining a losing battle

 

6 hours ago, rocketman said:

I worry that Erdogan will use any dissent among members as fodder for his own agenda of obstructing Sweden’s bid.

@panzermartin

Anything that Erdoğan does or doesn't do from now on leads back to this:

He can no longer win an election without going full Lukashenko. If he loses, he goes to jail.

[beardiebloke]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Here's even better one:

 

In the olden days you might have to fly something over to take a grainy picture to see if you hit and what the damage was.  Now you just wait for the enemy to take a detailed video and upload it to social media.

[Huba]

57 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think Germany at the moment can produce 2 or 3 Leopard tanks per month. It will take at least a year to double that number. Poland decided in 2021 to buy M1's if I'm not mistaken. If they ordered Leo2's instead perhaps Germany would have increased production capability by now and could deliver more tanks each month. But that's not what Poland really wants, I think. Instead it makes demands  Germany at the moment can't possibly meet, cries 'it's an outrage' and continues to remove itself from the EU and it's rules of democracy and justice. 

Those are two rather separate things. Our gov's anti-UE policy is stupid and hurts everybody, PL included. 

But what exactly it has to do with tanks? 

We had less than stellar experience with maintaining our Leo2, even worse while trying to upgrade them. We started negotiating Abrams last year, but contract was signed only this April. German approach to "cricular exchange" was a joke - zero sense of urgency, and idea of replacing abstract monetary value instead of combat power. There was no point engaging in it, it was a mistake to even try. 

Seriously, to go for a gas-guzzling, extremely expensive M1s for emergency, and to choose industrial cooperation with Korea for future of our armor, instead continuing cooperation with our neighbour, who previously supplied us with core of our present day forces, and produces one of the best tanks in the world sounds extremely stupid. Unfortunately it was a better alternative, cause this cooperation proved to be completely unsatisfactory precisely in the moment when it was most neeeded. 

This is business of course, and nobody really owes anybody anything, but it sure left a nasty aftertaste. 

Edit: to put things in perspective, we'll be also terminating cooperation with Patria in production of AMV, which we have around 800 in the land forces. The terms for license renewal are just not acceptable. This is business. The issue with the tanks is that Poland was painted as bad guy for "making demands" and being unreasonable in the whole "backfilling" situation, while it turns out the offer we got was just a joke. 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Huba

[panzermartin]

15 minutes ago, Machor said:

 

@panzermartin

Anything that Erdoğan does or doesn't do from now on leads back to this:

He can no longer win an election without going full Lukashenko. If he loses, he goes to jail.

He is really running out of options indeed.  Its going to be a long year for our neighborhood too.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

He is really running out of options indeed.  Its going to be a long year for our neighborhood too.

So, who is the guy he's running against? Sultan 2.0 or somebody reasonable? 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

that 30 year old might respect and even revere the 60 year old's wisdom and life achievements.  In traditional societies they are all kinda mushed into one concept.

 

Steve

yeah I am not finding that so much.  LOL

instead "boomer" is now a term of derision... and maybe we deserve it a bit.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

yeah I am not finding that so much.  LOL

instead "boomer" is now a term of derision... and maybe we deserve it a bit.  

Note I said 30 year old, not 20 year old   But you're right, I probably should have said 40 year old.  Even those 30 somethings are still one step above todlers.  Now if I could just find my glasses I might be able to find where I put my metamucil.

Steve

[JonS]

41 minutes ago, Jammason said:

Bridges are notoriously difficult to take down, especially those of the Kerch size/construction (Thanh Hóa Bridge, anyone?)

The problem (which is the same basic problem for all bridges)  with Thanh Hoa was that they couldn't /hit/ the damn thing. Approximately one day after PGMs arrived in Vietnam, the bridge was gone.

[Hapless]

Looks like 8 trails. Can't think of anything else that fires 8 at once off the top of my head.

@The_CaptRe Mission Command/ Manoeuvre Warfare:
"It's complicated" seems like a good bet. Going back to some of the Nagarno-Karabakh analysis, we could be looking at deeply planned controlled, pulsed bite and hold offensives around the edge of enemy snowdomes attempting to provoke, reveal, locate and destroy Arty/SAM/EW/logistics assets until enough have been knocked out to precipitate that snowdome to collapse, at which point a more fluid Mission Command-Manoeuvre Warfare exploitation/mopping up phase kicks in.

I mean, that sounds like every war ever in some fancy word dressing, but I think there's a dynamic between Mission Command and more Control focused methods where they cycle depending on the situation. They both have advantages and disadvantages and operate at different levels and scales with different impacts for different units. So... hybrid command styles?

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

yeah I am not finding that so much.  LOL

instead "boomer" is now a term of derision... and maybe we deserve it a bit.  

Personally, I find the Boomer-bashing rather sad, just like any other kind of stereotyping. (Crazy to think that at 41, I'm technically young enough to be a Millennial).

What I find amusing is the circularity of it...read a few rants about Millennials and it's exactly what the G.I. Generation were saying about Boomers fifty years ago, back when their generation was popularising "Never Trust Anyone Over 30" pins. I suspect people will always be mixing up age effects and cohort effects.

[Huba]

More HIMARS announced. I'll watch the whole thing and bullet point it later: