How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

well, now that we are done w whatever the F all that was....

Seems nothing new out of Kerson region other than UKR hitting some more ammo dumps.  I still wonder whether this is will be a feint offensive or the real deal.  RU seems to be treating it seriously enough, which may be the whole point.  With the Slovyansk front now straightened, UKR arty can use its longer reach to punch RU assets.  In the salient UKR had to put arty in relative danger due to the 3-sided RU front.

RU has satellites, so I suppose it'd be impossible for UKR to really mass troops w/o RU knowing it.  So how does one pull off an offensive other than methods championed earlier by Steve -- infiltrate, disrupt, then strike w small armored teams, consolidate, repeat.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Food service, truck drivers, salons, junk "food" producers, tertiary jobs that maintain rather than produce. I could spend all day thinking of more but I wont. Sure a lot of the economy is true necessary work. Think of a wartime economy, sort of. 

The truck driver dilemma is probably the best way to go about this. My question: Why need truck drivers when computers can do the same thing (eventually)? I'm sure everyone has heard of this arguement. What to do with the drivers? It's one of the largest occupations in the US if I'm not mistaken. This is now a filler job. Something that doesn't produce as meaningful results (Since computers can do it better) but has to stay because it employs masses of people. People dont want to let large companies invest into the tech because it will drive them out of their occupation. 

This is what I mean. If you are a producer like a farmer, someone who crafts, etc. That is valuable and essential work.

Ok, I will bite.  Given the impact of disruptions in global supply chains, the evidence is against your position.  Largely because economies are an interdependent system, much like a human being.  Saying truck drivers are “filler” is akin to saying blood vessels are “filler” in a human being.

So what do you mean by “computers do it better?”  Do you mean automation?  Even then transported goods will still be critical, it just won’t be humans doing it.  Until we get universal low energy manufacturing, the ability to move a product to market will remain - when that technology does arrive, information will become the new “truck”.  However we are talking the Diamond Age , which is cool as hell conceptually but not really a basis for a position, at least not now.

[acrashb]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well at least people in my business are going to be in for a Bull market.  “We are in the war business and business is booming!  Contract work for all!”  

News for everyone else…not so good.

It's like dentists.  Someone gets a cavity or teeth knocked out playing hockey, they get work.  The thing is, there will always be cavities or sports injuries.

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Or with appropriately larger incident in some oil producing facility somewhere in Siberia.

Unless the entities operating the facilities are massively incompetent (which I'll grant is possible), it isn't that easy.  The attack on the Iranian enrichment centrifuges - the one where many of them spun too fast and self-disassembled (I am over simplifying) aka "stuxnet" - took a lot of time, effort, and planning, and likely (no-one outside of the inner circle knows) involved subverting a Microsoft patching node to insert the malware that did it.  Or it was a USB key to cross an air gap, and that would have taken a lot of planning and effort too.

If entities are massively incompetent, then access to Operational Technology (OT) because much easier and while shutdowns and the like become straightforward, actually damaging things is still difficult.  

[G.I. Joe]

18 minutes ago, Artkin said:

tertiary jobs that maintain rather than produce. 

Plenty of those are essential...it usually makes far more economic sense to maintain a vehicle or a building than to go buy a new one.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Unless the entities operating the facilities are massively incompetent (which I'll grant is possible), it isn't that easy.  The attack on the Iranian enrichment centrifuges - the one where many of them spun too fast and self-disassembled (I am over simplifying) aka "stuxnet" - took a lot of time, effort, and planning, and likely (no-one outside of the inner circle knows) involved subverting a Microsoft patching node to insert the malware that did it.  Or it was a USB key to cross an air gap, and that would have taken a lot of planning and effort too.

If entities are massively incompetent, then access to Operational Technology (OT) because much easier and while shutdowns and the like become straightforward, actually damaging things is still difficult.  

It is of course pure conjecture, but some things to point is that the facilities I brought as an example are 1) much more numerous and less critical, therefore for sure not kept to the same level of security as the enrichment plant 2) at large using machinery delivered completely by Western companies - case in point, the Nord Stream turbine that was for maintenance in Canada and 3) the fact that West (meaning US, but not only) had the last 3 decades to prepare for such eventuality. Those huge cyber budgets have to cover various contingency plans around the world...

Edited July 15, 2022 by Huba

[acrashb]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Food service, truck drivers, salons, junk "food" producers,

So, like the Golgafrinchans you think that, say, hairdressers ('salons') and telephone sanitizers aren't needed?  How did that work out for the Golgafrinchans?

21 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Sure a lot of the economy is true necessary work.

To be more serious, every job is "necessary" for the person paying for it.  Dog walkers free up time that the dog owners use to do something else, and so on.  This is true of all un-coerced economic activity.

And coerced / "planned" economic activity runs into the issues outlined in Hayek's The Fatal Conceit. Or, more simply and slightly more on topic, see the lack of success of Russian (and other) five-year plans.

26 minutes ago, Artkin said:

That is valuable and essential work.

As above, all paid work is valuable, and to some degree essential, to the person paying for it, and that's the only metric that matters.

[acrashb]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

therefore for sure not kept to the same level of security as the enrichment plant

Fair enough.  I used an extreme example to show at the edge how difficult things can be.

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Those huge cyber budgets have to cover various contingency plans around the world...

You would think / hope so.  However, the Snowden effect may have put a long-lasting wrench into the works that extended past the beneficial effects of tamping-down domestic surveillance.

And various authorities may be concerned about retaliation - however, if we've learned one thing, it's that provoking Russia is a non issue.  They do what they want until stopped by force.

[Huba]

Just now, acrashb said:

You would think / hope so.  However, the Snowden effect may have put a long-lasting wrench into the works that extended past the beneficial effects of tamping-down domestic surveillance.

And various authorities may be concerned about retaliation - however, if we've learned one thing, it's that provoking Russia is a non issue.  They do what they want until stopped by force.

As I said, we are speculating here. But If you ask me to bet whether CIA was investing in ability to sabotage Russian energy production sector or not, I'm gonna say 'yes, of course!'  Though like you mentioned, this is a nuclear option, but just threatening it behind the scenes should the other side think twice before it does something overly effective with their cyber powers.

[ASL Veteran]

41 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Food service, truck drivers, salons, junk "food" producers, tertiary jobs that maintain rather than produce. I could spend all day thinking of more but I wont. Sure a lot of the economy is true necessary work. Think of a wartime economy, sort of. 

The truck driver dilemma is probably the best way to go about this. My question: Why need truck drivers when computers can do the same thing (eventually)? I'm sure everyone has heard of this arguement. What to do with the drivers? It's one of the largest occupations in the US if I'm not mistaken. This is now a filler job. Something that doesn't produce as meaningful results (Since computers can do it better) but has to stay because it employs masses of people. People dont want to let large companies invest into the tech because it will drive them out of their occupation. 

This is what I mean. If you are a producer like a farmer, someone who crafts, etc. That is valuable and essential work.

What you are describing isn't necessarily .... Global?  A Global economy is generally understood to be commerce between nations.  For example, all those container ships that stack up in Chinese ports to take products to various parts of the globe - that's the Global bit.  Truck drivers are part of the Global economy I guess in the sense that they transport goods both between nations and within a nation.  Mexico is a very important part of the US food 'economy' in that they provide various types of produce during times of the year that the produce would normally be out of season in the US and truck drivers are the ones who deliver the produce, along with trains and ships.  I'm not really sure why truck drivers would be transitory unless you mean that they will be replaced by Autonomous vehicles some day?  Maybe?  A computer isn't going to deliver a tractor trailer load of Avacados to the local grocery store though.  At least the computer on my desktop isn't going to. 

The 'Service Industry' is the means by which folks obtain that which they want.  We can't all just drive down to Mexico and buy Avacados directly from the Avacado farmer.  I would much rather have Trader Joe's supermarket buy the Avacados and transport them up to their store for me.  That way if I want some Avacados I only have to drive five miles to the local Trader Joe's instead of driving 4000 miles to the Avacado farmer's farm.  Very few companies can afford to pay someone to do nothing, so if someone isn't contributing 'something' to the company's bottom line they probably aren't going to have a job for very long.  

I have to admit that I'm not following the maintain rather than produce thing either.  Companies produce things that people want to have or use and the service industry delivers it to those who want it.  I'm not sure how the distinction applies?  I suppose if you believe that everyone should be living off the land on their own farmstead making their own clothes or something .... is that what you believe?  Just trying to understand.  I certainly wouldn't be able to build a car from scratch on my own homesteading farm so I guess I would have to ride a horse under those circumstances.  

Edited July 15, 2022 by ASL Veteran

[danfrodo]

why is this thread bothering with this?  Someone says something nonsensical and dragged us over a cliff.

Anyone got any Ukraine updates?  Seems like the front is in a holding pattern w lots of arty and not much else.  RU will probably continue its WW1 pulverize and inch forward strategy.  UKR seems to be waiting for something.  Maybe they just don't have enough of the new units ready w proper training & gear?

[Huba]

Big big news: US law (and $100M budget) to train UA pilots on F-16s and F-15 passed the first level of legislatory process. As I understand, it has to be approved by Senate and POTUS now. I'm not that familiar with the way it works in US, but given previous cases, their support for that is probably a sure thing? 

What remains to be seen is if that would start from the scratch, or if the process is already well ongoing. I'm sure some loophole to make it legal is easily found, especially with help of allies who operate F-16s ?

https://www.airforcemag.com/as-ukrainian-pilot-training-passes-house-ndaa-legislators-work-to-overcome-roadblocks/

Edited July 15, 2022 by Huba

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

why is this thread bothering with this?  Someone says something nonsensical and dragged us over a cliff.

Anyone got any Ukraine updates?  Seems like the front is in a holding pattern w lots of arty and not much else.  RU will probably continue its WW1 pulverize and inch forward strategy.  UKR seems to be waiting for something.  Maybe they just don't have enough of the new units ready w proper training & gear?

Possibly a matter of not enough units with the right training and gear yet... But also possible that they may be waiting for certain systems, or enough of them, to arrive (and I think Huba just posted a strong candidate for what "certain systems" might be, especially if the process is already ongoing). Alternately, they may be waiting for the full impact of the HIMARS strikes on Russian ammo depots to be felt.

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

why is this thread bothering with this?  Someone says something nonsensical and dragged us over a cliff.

we are lemmings

[danfrodo]

Oh, I'm a lemming too, so not judging.  I almost got swept up in it.

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

we are lemmings

https://xkcd.com/386/

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

https://xkcd.com/386/

I can't even say the original post was wrong, to be wrong one has to have some kind of actual statement, some supposition, that is false, and this didn't rise to that level.  Like RU propaganda.  It's doesn't make enough sense to even be wrong.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

The truck driver dilemma is probably the best way to go about this. My question: Why need truck drivers when computers can do the same thing (eventually)?

This simply isn't true. Full and true self driving outside of a geofenced environment is far off. And then of course there are the problems associated with security, weather, chance accident or flat tire that cannot be dealt with easily without a driver in the vehicle. That's why you still have a pilot on an airliner. To sum up, Wired Magazine is a pretty great fanzine for Tesla but don't rely on it for real world analysis. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by billbindc

[acrashb]

44 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

https://xkcd.com/386/

That's always part of it.  The other part, at least for me, is the strategic element of the Russo-Ukrainian war, as it touches on the economic element that underpins all extended wars.

https://mises.org/library/economics-war

"If a tailor and baker go to war with each other, it is significant that the baker can wait longer for a new suit than the tailor can go without bread. "

I say Ukraine, backed by the West, is the baker.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Oh, I'm a lemming too, so not judging.  I almost got swept up in it.

I thought we were unpacking someone’s analysis of the economic dimensions of this war - real economy vs “fake” (still not sure what that means)…but now I am starting to wonder about this lemming ass in my face and a deafening sound of weightlessness out front.

Throw back - “This is my lemming, I squeezed him so he would show his teeth”

Edited July 16, 2022 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

Throw back - “This is my lemming, I squeezed him so he would show his teeth”

And at the risk of awakening the slumbering Old Ones from their Sunken non-Euclidean Thread Beneath The Waves....

 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, I will bite.

I appreciate that.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So what do you mean by “computers do it better?”  Do you mean automation? 

Right, automation. "Over the road" trucking benefits the most from this. A driver is legally limited to their driving hours a day. A computer wouldn't, since it doesn't need to sleep.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Until we get universal low energy manufacturing, the ability to move a product to market will remain - when that technology does arrive, information will become the new “truck”.  However we are talking the Diamond Age , which is cool as hell conceptually but not really a basis for a position, at least not now.

I agree, though companies like Tesla sleeze-balled their way into getting massive amounts of capital to invest into low effort manufacturing, though that was not my point. It is relevant though, as the same exact thing is happening in that factory, or at a McDonald's cash register... which is ironic.

My point was China has been on a very strict modernization plan for the past few decades, and it they seem to surprise "experts" often. I just wouldn't doubt that the tech is far off if they really wanted it.

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Plenty of those are essential...it usually makes far more economic sense to maintain a vehicle or a building than to go buy a new one.

That is not exactly what I meant, I can't disagree with you.

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

So, like the Golgafrinchans you think that, say, hairdressers ('salons') and telephone sanitizers aren't needed?  How did that work out for the Golgafrinchans?

To be more serious, every job is "necessary" for the person paying for it.  Dog walkers free up time that the dog owners use to do something else, and so on.  This is true of all un-coerced economic activity.

And coerced / "planned" economic activity runs into the issues outlined in Hayek's The Fatal Conceit. Or, more simply and slightly more on topic, see the lack of success of Russian (and other) five-year plans.

As above, all paid work is valuable, and to some degree essential, to the person paying for it, and that's the only metric that matters.

Golgafrinchans? What a rabbit hole that search was. Totally lost. Is that from a book?

I agree that time saved is worthwhile. But some things are unnecessary and are more "quality of life". As said China seems to profit every year considering they love exporting goods. I'm not sure what they're doing, or if it's working, but they strike me as a government that will stop at nothing to have it their way domestically. I haven't learned about the 5 year plan in a long time, so I'll refresh myself later.

People in the Western world can't be told what to do but they can be persuaded.

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

A computer isn't going to deliver a tractor trailer load of Avacados to the local grocery store though.

Right of course not, but now new

 

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

A computer isn't going to deliver a tractor trailer load of Avacados to the local grocery store though.  At least the computer on my desktop isn't going to.

positions have been opened up to get those avocados on the shelves faster.

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

I would much rather have Trader Joe's supermarket buy the Avacados and transport them up to their store for me.

I have to admit I despise this industry. They select their "boys" products and oust anybody they don't agree with. Supermarkets are a terrible, despicable industry in this country.

I do believe people should be farming and taking care of themselves. Of course it's not easy initially when you don't have the right tools. It's also not easy digging a hole without a shovel. Using drip lines and wood chips you can have a self sustainable garden on the cheap which requires little to no maintenance. So long as you have a dedicated, organized, and well thought out plan. Nothing is easy to start. This is all forgotten knowledge.

Yes there is an efficiency and know-how benefit when you have specialized roles. This isn't exactly what I meant but I replied with my thoughts anyway.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

This simply isn't true. Full and true self driving outside of a geofenced environment is far off. And then of course there are the problems associated with security, weather, chance accident or flat tire that cannot be dealt with easily without a driver in the vehicle. That's why you still have a pilot on an airliner. To sum up, Wired Magazine is a pretty great fanzine for Tesla but don't rely on it for real world analysis. 

Okay if that example wasn't good enough for you, how about cash register jobs? Those can be completely automated without the risk.

With that, I am finished. This was pointless, but this post is just explaining what I meant before.

On topic: Why are we training Ukrainians on F-15s? I would have thought F-16's would have been more than enough. We are modernizing the F-15 to the EX standard, so what gives? A new air superiority fighter in the works? F-15 might be on its last standard but we haven't even deployed it yet.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

why is this thread bothering with this?  Someone says something nonsensical and dragged us over a cliff.

Anyone got any Ukraine updates?  Seems like the front is in a holding pattern w lots of arty and not much else.  RU will probably continue its WW1 pulverize and inch forward strategy.  UKR seems to be waiting for something.  Maybe they just don't have enough of the new units ready w proper training & gear?

Yea, I was wondering the same thing. What's happening around Seversk? Two days ago TASS claimed "Источник сообщил, что Северск находится под оперативным контролем сил ЛНР и РФ" 

"Reliable source said that Seversk is under the operational control of LNR and Russian forces"

While this is very likely a propaganda , I guess there are some skirmish/probe around the city?  

 

[FancyCat]

The first MLRS systems are not up and running in Ukraine yet, I assume that the slower platforms that cannot shoot and move as fast, will be assigned to fire support for units in offensive operations, with the faster units keeping strategic targets under fire. I too was worried about the lack of progress, but after watching how the HIMARS worked, and knowing that we still have many more not online and operating in Ukraine, it makes sense to wait, and once the artillery is massed more, Russia can start enduring some of the fire they have been giving the Ukrainians. 

The real question is once the artillery is hitting Kherson, can the Russians hold, and can the Ukrainians advance with this? Crossing my fingers that quality, range overpower the Russian quantity of guns. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

The Conflict Intelligence Team is now publishing dispatches in English.