How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

He mentioned about Krabs, but without their number. I've read in other twitter about 10 vehiciles

There's 9 on the train in the first video in my post, but it didn't catch the whole train, just a part. First batch was delivered as a complete REGINA system, with command vehicles, workshops, ammo trucks etc. Given how quick the next batch arrived, it has to be stripped from our active service units anyway, not a new build, so its' reasonable to expect you got a whole battalion again. 
This batch should be nicer then previous btw, as the vehicles we donated were from the initial production and reportedly had various quirks that were fixed later. What is delivered now are vehicles from full serial production.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. colonel Aleksandr Sorochinskiy, 4th guard tank division. No other info.

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, Butschi said:

Indeed. We shouldn't ignore that time doesn't necessarily favour Ukraine. If the Russian aggression continues, I think we'll see this through, even if it hurts us badly. But if Putin plays it smart (not sure he's still able to) he'll grab whatever he can and come winter offer peace negotiations offering to, say, give back everything but the Donbass (assuming Russia still has some steam left and not lost most of the occupied territory already) return all POWs and other kidnapped people and some more favourably seeming stuff - maybe even reparations, disguised as help for rebuilding, because the poor population shouldn't suffer from the sadly necessary war against their Nazi leaders. Gas and Oil will flow like pre war but some or all sanctions are lifted. By winter s*** will have hit the proverbial fan in Europe and in such a case pressure will rise on Ukraine to accept. If they refuse, they will increasingly look like the aggressive party in this conflict - the usual populistic suspects will exploit this, with some help from Moscow, no doubt. 

Speaking from a German perspective, we are a rather self centered lot at times. So far, most politicians, most the media and the more open minded people (in short, those who are heard at least in the classical media) are very supportive of Ukraine. Pro Russian statement are really not fashionable, right now. But "the common people" are often, well not pro Russia, but somewhat annoyed by Ukraine (Steinmeier incident, etc).

The word gas triage came up recently. While the rules are clear that private consumers are prioritized over business consumers, our industry is increasingly questioning this. So, come winter things may get really nasty. Freezing is bad enough but tanking the industry, endangering jobs is where many will draw the line. (especially for the boomer+ generations here prosperity is almost a religious thing)

Other European countries are not in a so much better situation. And while many will not be too unhappy to see Germans suffering just a bit just this time, the effects of a bad recession in Germany would also hurt the rest of Europe badly. So if Germany was to put pressure on Ukraine I could imagine that other countries would, although openly badmouthing us, support such a move.

Bleak scenario and I hope I'm wrong.

I think you are

Worst case gas would have to be rationed, what would happen exactly if people keep their house heated until 12C and wear an extra sweater indoors? Apart from a lot of complaining

 

[Haiduk]

After Nova Kakhovka, there was other ammo dump hit 12/07 in Kherson oblast near Charivne village on half way from Davydiv Brid to Beryslav.

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Are the Flyers the Bruins farm team or training team?

at this point I'd settle for Zamboni crew.  Sharks about the same.

 

might want to watch that though... @BFCElvis reputedly has his finger hovering over the ban button.  

Edited July 12, 2022 by sburke

[Huba]

The regularity at which these strikes happens must be quite unnerving. Imagine sitting near one of those ammo dumps on guard duty, it's getting dark and it's almost HIMARS o'clock... The impact on morale must be huge, and growing every day.

 

Also, there are rumors about Sweden giving out some FH77 Archer SPGs to Ukraine. Here's an article about it - reportedly Sweden only use 24 with 24 on standby as it's lacking men to crew them, and already has 24 more on order. Article says they can neither confirm or deny the guns were delivered...

https://cornucopia.se/2022/07/sverige-har-mojligheten-att-avvara-archer-till-ukraina-betyder-inte-att-vi-gjort-det/

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[Vet 0369]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

at this point I'd settle for Zamboni crew.  Sharks about the same.

Honestly, I don’t other with sports any more. It got way to boring with all the championship parades. Just kidding, I never paid much mind to the State’s gladiatorial games.

[keas66]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m really behind the eight ball in catching up on replies in the thread, and apologize if I’m duplicating.

I’m sorry, but I must really disagree with this statement. One of the first actions of a repressive or dictatorial government to ensure “The People” cannot remove it is to ban private ownership of weapons that could be used to combat it. In my country, the U.S.A., we have enshrined in our Constitution that “The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” The purpose of that right was to ensure that no Tyrantical Federal Government would be able to disarm the People (Citizens). The statement that precedes those words “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a freeState,” was added at the end of the deliberations because one Representative was afraid a Federal Government could disband the States Militias, and refused to agree until it was added. So, whatever your views and beliefs regarding private ownership of weapons, it has been the law of the land in the U.S.A. For almost 300 years, and in fact, was required by all the Colonies since the early 17th Century. Are there detractors of that right? Yes, but whether a mass murder is committed using a firearm or by driving a semi tractor trailer through a crowd on a boulevard in Southern France, the murders were not committed by the firearm or the semi tractor.

I would go a step further and enshrine the right of the citizens to keep weapons and the responsibility of every citizen to train and serve, if necessary, in a National “Militia.”

Not sure where this comment got launched from ...but the Governments and Populations of the Rest of the First World   would probably disagree with quite a few of your statements . The USA is ... an anomaly  and not a very good example for the rest of the free world when it comes to Gun Violence and Gun Controls .

[akd]

Yeah, something’s gone wrong with the twitter embeds for the forum.  Won’t load at all on Safari for IPad/IPhone, causing pages to freeze up.  Chrome on PC does not display them properly, just showing text.

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Not sure where this comment got launched from ...but the Governments and Populations of the Rest of the First World   would probably disagree with quite a few of your statements . The USA is ... an anomaly  and not a very good example for the rest of the free world when it comes to Gun Violence and Gun Controls .

we should steer clear of this on this thread.  It is one of those touchy subjects that really isn't relevant here anyway.  Not even sure that is a solvable issue considering a country with virtually no gun ownership just had an ex prime minister gunned down.

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

Yeah, something’s gone wrong with the twitter embeds for the forum.  Won’t load at all on Safari for IPad/IPhone, causing pages to freeze up.  Chrome on PC does not display them properly, just showing text.

Working fine on chrome on a new chip mac for me. There may be an update cycle making its way across the internet.

 

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

we should steer clear of this on this thread.  It is one of those touchy subjects that really isn't relevant here anyway.  Not even sure that is a solvable issue considering a country with virtually no gun ownership just had an ex prime minister gunned down.

Well indeed - but then again Japan has had how many deaths by shooting in the last  decade ?

[Battlefront.com]

Yeah, personal gun ownership politics has absolutely no place here.  Keep it out of here.

Steve

[keas66]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, personal gun ownership politics has absolutely no place here.  Keep it out of here.

Steve

I did not start it ....

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Working fine on chrome on a new chip mac for me. There may be an update cycle making its way across the internet.

 

I am using Firefox on a Mac and no problems for me.  Chrome seems to be fine too.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

I did not start it ....

Don't care and I didn't direct my comments at any one person.

Steve

[poesel]

58 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Worst case gas would have to be rationed, what would happen exactly if people keep their house heated until 12C and wear an extra sweater indoors? Apart from a lot of complaining

Gas rationing to private homes is difficult for technical reasons. If the gas pressure is too low in the supply line, a safety switch in the gas burner will throw. You need a technician to turn that back on again. That is not manageable. So rationing by force is not feasible.

However, many people are already reducing their gas consumption simply because it got quite expensive.

There are different predictions how that will evolve through winter, and the final verdict is not out if we have enough gas or not. A lot obviously depends on how hard the winter will be.

[Huba]

Another depot in Luhansk got whacked quite spectacularly. Reportedly that's a PVO ammo depot - - adding insult to injury...

Russians reportedly are bombarding Bakhmut and Slovyansk in retaliation:

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Dunno what this one is all about.  The title says Ukraine special forces went into occupied Kherson and liberated 5 prisoners.  I think this is a poor translation of what the video is.  In English we say "take 5 prisoners" when we capture guys, we say "liberate" when they are friendly.  I've seen this a few times before so it is at least consistent

Looks like they raided a house and whisked away some guys and booty.  But why did they go after these guys in particular?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vxi1mz/our_fighters_entered_the_temporarily_occupied/

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, poesel said:

Gas rationing to private homes is difficult for technical reasons. If the gas pressure is too low in the supply line, a safety switch in the gas burner will throw. You need a technician to turn that back on again. That is not manageable. So rationing by force is not feasible.

However, many people are already reducing their gas consumption simply because it got quite expensive.

There are different predictions how that will evolve through winter, and the final verdict is not out if we have enough gas or not. A lot obviously depends on how hard the winter will be.

Good point we have the same system so direct technical rationing would be difficult. Although in the UK I have seen 'metered' gas meters which you need to top up with chipcards even back in the early 2000s. Not easy to install on a dime though. 

However like you say price can already do quite a bit. Slapping fines on usage above a certain amount per household could approach rationing ;-). Plenty of other options when one needs to get creative.

One of the less creative options is reopening the Dutch gasfield which has ~800Bn gas left in it iirc. However when push comes to shove... We'll see
 

[Beleg85]

Multiple reports of very heavy bombarding of Ukrainian lines and close behind-frontlines in Donbas, especially Bakhmut. Somebody here told about Russian artillery officers emptying their stocks... well maybe they indeed try this.

It seems Russian can only retaliate for Himars by intensifying conventional artilley barrages, like Steve said. I did expected VKS will try to organize some bombing air raid just to show they do something.

 

1 hour ago, Huba said:

The regularity at which these strikes happens must be quite unnerving. Imagine sitting near one of those ammo dumps on guard duty, it's getting dark and it's almost HIMARS o'clock... The impact on morale must be huge, and growing every day.

Really, those HIMARS strikes get so regular people will soon organize livestreams watching their effects.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Good point we have the same system so direct technical rationing would be difficult. Although in the UK I have seen 'metered' gas meters which you need to top up with chipcards even back in the early 2000s. Not easy to install on a dime though. 

However like you say price can already do quite a bit. Slapping fines on usage above a certain amount per household could approach rationing ;-). Plenty of other options when one needs to get creative.

One of the less creative options is reopening the Dutch gasfield which has ~800Bn gas left in it iirc. However when push comes to shove... We'll see
 

yep same way they are dealing with water use and drought here. Once you go over a certain usage rate the costs jump.  It doesn't seem to have driven our usage down enough so there is still talk of mandatory rationing.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

I think you are

Worst case gas would have to be rationed, what would happen exactly if people keep their house heated until 12C and wear an extra sweater indoors? Apart from a lot of complaining

 

Complaining is something we really excel in!

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Complaining is something we really excel in!

From a PR (or propaganda, if you prefer) perspective, I wonder if the correct framing of fuel prices is to push the blame on Putin. 

something like this:  "Putin's war and his choices are causing shortages which have increased prices.  Putin is using his fuel deals w EU to extort all of europe.  And if we ever give him this power again, he'll do it again, so we are taking the hard step of removing ourselves from Putin's extortion racket, which is painful now but will make us safer in the future"