How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Video with previously unseen footage of Snake Island bombardment. What a carnage!

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Dmitri Semenov, chief of staff / deputy commander of ?? Spetsnaz Detachment, 16th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade:

Possibly Col. Sergei Kens, commander 810th Seperate Naval Infantry Brigade:

Col. Sergei Kuzminov, Political Officer, 106th Guards Airborne Division:

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by akd

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

I have been expecting this. Not confirmed yet.

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

I have been expecting this. Not confirmed yet.

Let me direct you to my rant at the page 1014

This is interesting news. From all the AA equipment captured in first months of the war, maybe UA will be able to whip up enough protection for mobile forces?

Also, Russians are REALLY scrapping the bottom of the barrel in artillery department:

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Possibly Col. Sergei Kens, commander 810th Seperate Naval Infantry Brigade:

@sburke @Kinophile

It seems Col. Kens was commander of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade until 2021.  His most recent (as of March 2, 2022) posting appears to have been as Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division.

https://gur.gov.ua/content/spysok-osobovoho-skladu-20yi-hvardiiskoi-motostriletsikoi-dyvizii-zs-rf.html

Had not seen this list of officers for 20th MRD before. Interesting to note that the division commander is also a Colonel, where per shtat he should be a General-Major.

Edited July 11, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

777 destroyed positions of Russian Nona-K platoon and probably local ammunition dump in border village Hoptivka, Kharkiv oblast (22 m north from Kahrkiv). Huge fireball at the end. 

 

So intel, from drone or partisans or NATO satellite or some combo, seems quite good at identifying ammo dumps.  I guess all they have to do is follow army trucks to do this.  If an arty position is located, wait of supply truck to arrive, unload & drive back to the ammo dump.  I bet US/NATO are playing a big role in the recent escalation of ammo dump destruction.

[A Canadian Cat]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Therefore, it will come down to which nation can fight longer than the other.  I think I've been pretty clear I believe all the evidence of this war and the weight of history show Ukraine will be the ultimate victor.

Agreed.

 

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I said on Day 3 of this war that Russia has already lost it, but it would take some time for it to become reality.  I had hoped that it would have happened right around now, but sadly it hasn't yet happened.  Why?  Because there's just too many variables for Russia to play with to extend how long it is able to wage war.

Indeed. The other side of this is that dispute Ukraine fighting really well and defeating the Russian army they are having trouble pushing over the RA house of cards. I feel like if the UA were able to conduct more significant offensive operations that the RA would likely collapse. I realize that the Russian artillery is a big factor in keeping the UA from conducting those operations so in a sense this is one of the Russian variables they are able to apply. I am glad to see the UA is going after that artillery advantage. The faster they can negate that advantage the better.

However, that sill leaves the UA needing to conduct some significant offensive operations to push their enemy's house of cars over. I hope this is just a matter of time. I am still concerned though.

 

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What Russia has been more successful at is figuring out how to not collapse.  I am impressed at how many tricks Russia has up its sleeve to keep the cannon fodder moving to the front, to put into service 60 year old weaponry, to keep the domestic population controlled, and to completely reject reality in the mistaken belief that Russia will eventually win because it's Russia.  However, all of these tricks are just that and tricks always have a limited number of times they can be used.  It is also true that when a new trick is required it is harder to find than the previous one.

Indeed. I hope they run out of tricks. The sooner the better.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, IanL said:

However, that sill leaves the UA needing to conduct some significant offensive operations to push their enemy's house of cars over. I hope this is just a matter of time. I am still concerned though.

I think we all are, I'm almost biting my nails. This is the biggest unknown of this conflict up to this point.  Ukraine has a lot to gain from postponing the strategic counteroffensive, as force ratios are changing increasingly in it's favor, both manpower and equipment wise. They have till September to start, later they risk being caught in the autumn rains - assuming that this is a factor. 

Meanwhile, Putin ordered an emergency session of Duma on 15th - reportedly to speed up various legislation needed for "special operation", but I think that we can resume speculations of RU mobilization...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-11/amid-ukraine-war-russian-parliament-to-hold-extraordinary-session

 

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, IanL said:

Indeed. The other side of this is that dispute Ukraine fighting really well and defeating the Russian army they are having trouble pushing over the RA house of cards. I feel like if the UA were able to conduct more significant offensive operations that the RA would likely collapse.

Yes, exactly.  Thanks for bringing this up.

Back when the war started I had imagined that Ukraine would be in a position to do some significant counter offensives (brigade size at least) that would cause a cascading collapse.  This was starting to happen around Kyiv (i.e. major reason Russia retreated) and it definitely did happen around Kharkiv.  So I wasn't completely wrong.  However, these were two places where Russia had over extended on a grand scale in terrain that was extremely favorable to Ukraine's light infantry forces.  Kherson and the long stretch of front from there to Donetsk have so far proven to be harder for Ukraine to crack.  Terrain is one reason, the other is the forces there are not completely spent.  If Ukraine had been able to advance significantly in these two areas just before or after Kharkiv I think the war would be over by now.

My view is that the war is dragging on longer than any of us would like, but the ending has not changed.  Russia will lose this war on the battlefield sooner rather than later.  According to Girkin, within 6 months.

Speaking of that, thanks to Grigb for the great set of translations on the previous page.  Lots and lots and lots of good information there.  Let's hope the Russian ultra nationalist military bloggers get to keep telling us what they think.  They provide a lot of useful intel if you know how to read it.  ISW certainly uses them a lot and is very concerned that Russia is stepping up its efforts to muzzle them.  Yesterday's ISW report went into some detail about that.

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

It seems Col. Kens was commander of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade until 2021.  His most recent (as of March 2, 2022) posting appears to have been as Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division.

https://gur.gov.ua/content/spysok-osobovoho-skladu-20yi-hvardiiskoi-motostriletsikoi-dyvizii-zs-rf.html

Had not seen this list of officers for 20th MRD before. Interesting to note that the division commander is also a Colonel, where per shtat he should be a General-Major.

there was also a report in the Daily Mail of a Russian HQ being hit.  Don't know validity and no details.

Russia Ukraine news: 'Twelve of Vladimir Putin's officers are killed' in Kherson strike | Daily Mail Online

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

there was also a report in the Daily Mail of a Russian HQ being hit.  Don't know validity and no details.

Russia Ukraine news: 'Twelve of Vladimir Putin's officers are killed' in Kherson strike | Daily Mail Online

Girkin and other Russian bloggers have been vaguely mentioning this as well.  More than one, it seems.

Steve

[sburke]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can see the Far Eastern and Central Asian areas forming into two or more power blocs.  I don't know enough about the details of the various groups to know how they would align themselves.  It would become even more interesting if some of the "Stans" destabilized as there's a lot of cross border ethnic ties.

Steve

This is an area that could get really touchy.  Most of the stans went through a period of conflict after 1991 and continue to have various conflicts both internally and with each other over issues like water rights.  The resurgence of the Taliban also has implications.  Tajikistan was leaning on Russia for support to secure its border.  All of this would be a concern for China as well with these countries bordering Xinjiang.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

This is an area that could get really touchy.  Most of the stans went through a period of conflict after 1991 and continue to have various conflicts both internally and with each other over issues like water rights.  The resurgence of the Taliban also has implications.  Tajikistan was leaning on Russia for support to secure its border.  All of this would be a concern for China as well with these countries bordering Xinjiang.

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if China moved "peace keepers" into previously Russian territory in order to protect ethnic rights from pro-Moscow groups?  Russia has told the world that this is completely acceptable behavior, so why not?

Steve

[Taranis]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Girkin and other Russian bloggers have been vaguely mentioning this as well.  More than one, it seems.

Steve

Maybe this :

https://t.me/ukrinform_news/75810

Ukrainian military destroyed Russian command post and communication systems in Tavriysk (Kherson area) - 8 hours ago

Quote

 

" The Armed Forces destroyed the mobile command post of the Russians in Tavriysk

"According to preliminary information, the sounds that were heard at night in Kakhovka and nearby are a clear hit by our Armed Forces in Tavriysk," wrote Serhii Khlan, adviser to the head of Kherson OVA.
According to him, the enemy's mobile command post, military equipment, radars and antennas, anti-aircraft defenses that were deployed there by the Russian military, there are 200 Russians, were destroyed."

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Taranis

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wouldn't it be poetic justice if China moved "peace keepers" into previously Russian territory in order to protect ethnic rights from pro-Moscow groups?  Russia has told the world that this is completely acceptable behavior, so why not?

Steve

heh add to that Turkmenistan which has the world's 5th largest reserves of natural gas and borders Iran and Afghanistan.

Hot mess all the way round.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Maybe this :

https://t.me/ukrinform_news/75810

Ukrainian military destroyed Russian command post and communication systems in Tavriysk (Kherson area) - 8 hours ago

guess I'll be hearing from @akdsometime soon. 

[Grigb]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's hope the Russian ultra nationalist military bloggers get to keep telling us what they think.  They provide a lot of useful intel if you know how to read it.  ISW certainly uses them a lot and is very concerned that Russia is stepping up its efforts to muzzle them.  Yesterday's ISW report went into some detail about that.

My 2 cents - the low-level scandal Rybar mentioned is about frontline reporters. State propaganda authorities do not fully control them. So, when they get emotional, they can say something they shouldn't say. For example, they got upset with HIMARS hits and they said bad stuff (I translated most interesting). As result RU gov is now probing public opinion whether control should be tightened. Anyway, they provide low level stuff mostly for confirmation.

 But Girkin, Murz and Nesmyan are different. They are not reporters, and their RU audience is limited. So, so far, they are not affected. 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

First some no-longer flying flyers.

Lt. Col. Vladimir Strelchenko, Ka-52 pilot / Deputy Commander for Flight Training), 487th Separate Helicoper Regiment:

Maj. Alexander Saveliev, Mi-28N pilot, 487th Separate Helicopter Regiment:

Maj. Nikolai Prozorov, Su-25 pilot:

 

And a cop. Police Col. Igor Murzin, Deputy Commander, Kuzbass SOBR:

 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

First some no-longer flying flyers.

Lt. Col. Vladimir Strelchenko, Ka-52 pilot / Deputy Commander for Flight Training), 487th Separate Helicoper Regiment:

Maj. Alexander Saveliev, Mi-28N pilot, 487th Separate Helicopter Regiment:

Maj. Nikolai Prozorov, Su-25 pilot:

so they've been "grounded"? 

 

gotta love this - “When he had fulfilled the task, he did not eject in order to avoid being captured.”  yeah right.

Edited July 11, 2022 by sburke

[Lethaface]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While Russia is taking a moment or two for their operational pause, I think it's a good time for us to think about what comes next for this war.  I'll get the ball rolling...

Ultimately this war will end only when Ukraine or Russia can no longer effectively kill the other.  Since both believe this war will decide their fate as nations, I don't see either of them willingly seeking to end the war before they think they have won.  Therefore, it will come down to which nation can fight longer than the other.  I think I've been pretty clear I believe all the evidence of this war and the weight of history show Ukraine will be the ultimate victor.

Historians can advise on what the likely outcomes might be given a particular set of circumstances, but the larger scale the topic the more elusive predicting the timeframe is.  I said on Day 3 of this war that Russia has already lost it, but it would take some time for it to become reality.  I had hoped that it would have happened right around now, but sadly it hasn't yet happened.  Why?  Because there's just too many variables for Russia to play with to extend how long it is able to wage war.

Some might say "ah, Russia is finally learning how to fight!".  Not me.  I think Russia is fighting just about as poorly as it did in the first few weeks and months.  It hasn't learned much of anything.  The change in tactics we've seen are mostly because it no longer has the physical strength to fight they way it used to nor the way it wants to (i.e. quickly end the war through bold actions).  If 10 full strength BTGs magically appeared out of thin air, they would say "ah-ha!  Now we can make a bold and decisive attack without air cover, without coordination of arms, without favorable terrain, and without a demoralized enemy that isn't armed with often times superior defensive weaponry".  I do not think for a second they would do otherwise.

What Russia has been more successful at is figuring out how to not collapse.  I am impressed at how many tricks Russia has up its sleeve to keep the cannon fodder moving to the front, to put into service 60 year old weaponry, to keep the domestic population controlled, and to completely reject reality in the mistaken belief that Russia will eventually win because it's Russia.  However, all of these tricks are just that and tricks always have a limited number of times they can be used.  It is also true that when a new trick is required it is harder to find than the previous one.

Russia has many tricks up its sleeves, but sleeves always end at the shoulder.  There is a definite end to what Russia is able to do to keep this war going, we just don't know where that definite end is with any certainty.

Steve

 

From someone who followed the first ~3 months closely, last ~2 months more on macro level it at least seems that Russia at least has adjusted it's ways and has actually started conducting a war instead of a 'spastic operation'. While geopolitically / strategically there is only partial loss-aversion on the table imo, at least operationally / tactically Russia seems to have adapted into doing stuff they are capable of and doing it in a (sort of) capable way.

They can 'grind' for territory. Looks like they have adjusted the size of the 'grinder' to chunks they can actually deal with and in sustainable fashion, at least for the time being. The obvious question being whether Ukraine can take the initiative and disturb this in some way.

It seems that the recent heavy artillery / MLRS deliveries and exploding stuff in Russia's rear is at least affecting the capability for Russia to 'grind'. I have no information regarding how bad these strikes are affecting Russia's capability keeping their guns well fed/operated/directed but any disruption on the artillery front will have a significant impact on any battle/operation imo.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Lethaface

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Are Ukrainians happy with the 777 so far? I've read conflicting reports that a lot of are out of action at the moment due to wear, maintenance, or enemy fire. The latter its hard to confirm as there are non existent visual clues and the russian videos are of bad quality. 

While @Haiduk is busy, I will offer what I got with limited UKR language understanding + what RU says (it is similar to UKR opinion). M777 is a good solid workhorse. Good range, good accuracy, good shell. They are dealing with issues by rotating guns between frontlines and workshops. So, there are fewer on frontline than we expect, and the effect is not as war winning as everybody initially thought but they are fighting, and RU feels it.

Take it with the grain of salt as I might confuse something.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Col. Sergei Kuzminov, Political Officer, 106th Guards Airborne Division:

 

 

@sburke @Kinophile

Kuzminov wasn't poitical officer ("zampolit"). He was "zampotyl" - brief name of duty "zamestitel' po tylu" - commander's deputy of rear. He responses for supply and logistic of unit.   

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

While @Haiduk is busy, I will offer what I got with limited UKR language understanding + what RU says (it is similar to UKR opinion). M777 is a good solid workhorse. Good range, good accuracy, good shell. They are dealing with issues by rotating guns between frontlines and workshops. So, there are fewer on frontline than we expect, and the effect is not as war winning as everybody initially thought but they are fighting, and RU feels it.

Take it with the grain of salt as I might confuse something.

yeah, I think you got it right GrigB.  M777 may not be 'war winning' but it sure is killing russians in a manner more effective than w/o these guns.  I don't even want to think about how badly UKR would be doing w/o these weapons & shells.  It's an arty war and has been for a couple months.  Less is not better.  

[Lethaface]

14 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

Hard to believe how clean it is in there.

 

Because they wear flip flops inside

Edited July 11, 2022 by Lethaface

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

While @Haiduk is busy, I will offer what I got with limited UKR language understanding + what RU says (it is similar to UKR opinion). M777 is a good solid workhorse. Good range, good accuracy, good shell. They are dealing with issues by rotating guns between frontlines and workshops. So, there are fewer on frontline than we expect, and the effect is not as war winning as everybody initially thought but they are fighting, and RU feels it.

Take it with the grain of salt as I might confuse something.

100 was never enough to be decisive. 300 would do it, combined with the ~100 NATO SPGs of various types.

The Russian response to the HIMARS campaign against their logistics seems to be firing every gun they have to prove they still can. Either they think they can still get resupplied, or someone in the Russian command structure has realized that intentionally running out of ammo is an excuse to pack up and go home. Which might actually be rational response to Putin's determination to push the Russian army all the way to 1917 levels of complete failure. I still think the way the Russians are fighting now has as much to do with the post war/post Putin blame game as any rational military strategy.