How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

And speaking of PzH2000:

 

[FancyCat]

Dunno if true but he seems knowledgeable. Interesting that Ukraine is able to hit these depots. Either the Tochkas are getting thru what should be the strongest AA due to being the primary front, or those HIMARS are amazing.

 

[Huba]

I'll go with GMLRS being amazing  Here's a thread about geolocating the recent strikes near Alchevsk:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Does anybody have data on can the GMLRS missiles be intercepted and if they can, then with what equipment and limitations? 

[Grigb]

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Does anybody have data on can the GMLRS missiles be intercepted and if they can, then with what equipment and limitations? 

RU claims that Pansir and Tor can intercept MLRS rockets. The issue is RU claims are not very reliable. 

[Grigb]

Found RU AF assessment by sort of well know RU analyst Kramnik. I would not trust him with anything foreign but regarding RU he is ok (he does have connection to RU forces and tries to be impartial, for a Russian)  

Quote

3. The tactics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this war is based on two pillars: an artillery offensive based on the ability to concentrate a significantly larger number of artillery systems and fire an order of magnitude more ammunition than the enemy, and an operational maneuver under an artillery barrage...

Some interim conclusions regarding the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:

A. Army. The deployment of a large number of new units and formations in the Russian army after 2013 did not justify itself: there are not enough people in the army to man all newly created/restored formations by TOE, while huge funds were spent on capital construction for this mass of formations. It is clear that these new formations were conditioned by the events in Ukraine, but they were not sufficiently supplied. The situation when by default there are not enough people in the companies on the front line makes it difficult to act, given the numerical superiority of the enemy, even if you have more artillery and much more shells for it.

B. Fleet. If you do not engage in the fleet in peacetime, build dubious ships on strange projects without proper justification and goal–setting, issue the restoration of technical readiness for repairs with modernization, profane the process of combat training, and turn commanders into clerks filling out an infinite number of papers - the consequences in wartime will not be long in coming, and they will be bad. We can also repeat once again about the goal-setting crisis and the resulting systemic crisis of the Russian Navy as a whole, but this is a topic for a separate long conversation, to which we will definitely return in the near future. What's good about the fleet? "Caliber" and UKSK [RU Vertical Launch system]. This is very good, they are the only source of our success [of RU Navy] and they will stay the only source of our success for some time. [He confirmed historical trend that RU Navy suck more than Army of VVS in a war] 

C. VKS. The Su-34 is a very good aircraft, the Ka-52 is perhaps the best attack helicopter in the world, but the range of modern high–precision weapons for them requires expansion, and the fleet of special–purpose vehicles - AWACS, reconnaissance, aircraft and EW helicopters, the development of which, unfortunately, does not enjoy priority - expansion and a radical update is needed yesterday, and SEAD tactics as well.

D. Airborne. The existing structure of the Airborne Forces is inadequate neither to the capabilities of military transport aviation, nor to the conditions of combined arms combat. The former are insufficient to raise and provide the existing grouping, for the latter the Airborne forces have neither a sufficient level of armor nor the appropriate firepower. Prospects, obviously, lie in "airmobilization" - the reduction of airborne forces with their reformation into airmobile/light infantry units, allowing landing by landing method [on aircraft/helo, not airdropping from aircraft/helo], operating on standard armored vehicles of motorized rifle units, and having additional training in order to conduct helicopter and tactical parachute landings if necessary.

E. There is no point in repeating about drones, everyone has understood everything. [Not enough]

F. About the fleet of armored vehicles of the ground forces , too. [Bad]

[Taranis]

"A residential area hit by a Russian missile, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, June 26, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

[Grigb]

Parsing through Kramnik posts I noticed that there is ongoing debate among RU analytics, who are outside of official military, about RU military issues. It looks like an apparent mismatch of what RU military claimed it could achieve and what it really managed to achieve concerns a lot of RU. 

Kramnik assessment is part of that debate. But here is quote from Alexander Khodakovsky regarding RU military debate.

Quote

What did I see at us [LDNR] when non-local [RU] military people began to create an army for us from the militia? It would never have occurred to any of the militia commanders to falsify the number of personnel, but this is the first thing we encountered. The norm was send from above - the completeness of the units is not less than ninety-five percent. In reality, the completeness did not reach an average of sixty, but the reports stubbornly testified that everything according to the norm. They also testified to the norm in matters of ensuring the level of combat training, but in fact the practice of photo reports became widespread, when crews at the tank training ground were concerned not with training, but with taking photographs. The same picture was on the front line, when the state of defense was assessed by the photos sent to the headquarters, because the supervising officers who arrived on a business trip did not want to go to the front line themselves...

They say that you can extract a girl from a village, but you cannot extract a village from a girl. The established system of circular self-and-mutual lying is herpes of the Russian army. Where the immune system is stronger, it sits quieter, and where immunity weakens, it manifests itself. Unfortunately, immunity has rarely been stronger anywhere... Now the system, in its characteristic manner, does not take out garbage from the hut [hides the issue inside, away from public], quietly makes changes in the upper echelons of command, not always indisputable. But even if all of them are successful, then it may take years to eliminate the consequences in the form of sores that permeated the army from top to bottom, which we may not have, and the main problem is: now there is a powerful incentive to reform - but if it weakens tomorrow? Back to business as usual?

[hcrof]

8 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"A residential area hit by a Russian missile, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, June 26, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

What is up with that picture? The glass in the red building is not even blown out next to that huge crater??? And the telephone pole is still standing?

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, hcrof said:

What is up with that picture? The glass in the red building is not even blown out next to that huge crater??? And the telephone pole is still standing?

Looks like post-blast repair work is ongoing on that green-white house.  They likely replaced the windows and telephone pole after the blast.  This is an older crater by the look.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU claims that Pansir and Tor can intercept MLRS rockets. The issue is RU claims are not very reliable. 

haha, nice timing. UKR just toke out a Pantsir with GMLRS.

[The_Capt]

I get the sense that space-based ISR + HIMARS is the old UAVs + Artillery, on steroids.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  So does this mean Ivan is giving mech attacks another try? (ref. that long thread I translated above which asserts they've basically given up on that for some time).

 

2.  More icons on a map

3.  A new form of interdiction?

 

4.  /mic drop

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So does this mean Ivan is giving mech attacks another try? (ref. that long thread I translated above which asserts they've basically given up on that for some time).

Possibly they switched to local mechanized attacks. They are pushing with drone +infantry + arty as much as possible to get as close as possible to the objective. But when infantry attack stalls they use surprise mechanized attack to quickly overrun the defenders and occupy the objective.   

[Huba]

Russians hit a crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast):

Ka-52 hit by Martlet. A very long range shot:

 

Edited June 27, 2022 by Huba

[rocketman]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Russians hit a crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast):

 

F**k Putin all the way to hell the effing coward.

I can take a vacation for saying this but I had to get it off my chest.

[LongLeftFlank]

Elegant map of Donbas front by HeliosRunner. 

[danfrodo]

While RU making some very costly advances for very little ground, they are also losing ground on the 'land bridge front'.  RU doesn't have enough forces to protect all its ill-gotten gains, perhaps.  Here's good summary I saw today:

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/27/2106704/-Ukraine-update-Low-on-troops-Russia-plays-whack-a-mole-with-frisky-Ukrainians

Hopefully all the sacrifice in the Lysychansk sector has opened up opportunities in the south.  We shall see.

[Probus]

3 hours ago, hcrof said:

What is up with that picture? The glass in the red building is not even blown out next to that huge crater??? And the telephone pole is still standing?

Good catch. What is up with that?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Russians hit a crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast):

I really hope the State Sponsor of Terrorism designation gets more traction now that it is clear that Russia is deliberately targeting civilian population centers at times calculated to cause maximum civilian deaths.  That is the very definition of terrorism.

Steve

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I really hope the State Sponsor of Terrorism designation gets more traction now that it is clear that Russia is deliberately targeting civilian population centers at times calculated to cause maximum civilian deaths.  That is the very definition of terrorism.

Steve

I was thinking same thing.  I want to politicians & media to start framing this war better.  I want to start hearing things like "serial mass murderer & dictator of Russia, Vladimir Putin" become the norm.  He as murdered dozens of thousands now, crippled and maimed many times that, and wrecked the lives of literally millions.  He's totally disrupted the already damaged world economy.  He's worked to undermine democracy in the US and Europe.  

He's a murderous menace to the world but it needs to be framed so that it can start sinking in w folks that aren't paying much attention.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

I was thinking same thing.  I want to politicians & media to start framing this war better.  I want to start hearing things like "serial mass murderer & dictator of Russia, Vladimir Putin" become the norm.  He as murdered dozens of thousands now, crippled and maimed many times that, and wrecked the lives of literally millions.  He's totally disrupted the already damaged world economy.  He's worked to undermine democracy in the US and Europe.  

He's a murderous menace to the world but it needs to be framed so that it can start sinking in w folks that aren't paying much attention.

Unless missile was shot down or missed, it's really hard to understand what Putin wanted to achieve by this missile strike now, during G7- it's so obviously self-hurting. It seems he really just don't give a **** anymore.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

Unless missile was shot down or missed, it's really hard to understand what Putin wanted to achieve by this missile strike now, during G7- it's so obviously self-hurting. It seems he really just don't give a **** anymore.

yeah, straight up murder-terrorism on civilians was plan B, which was over in early march.  They are on plan E now, I thought.  Jeebus, Vlad, pay attention & keep up!

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Unless missile was shot down or missed, it's really hard to understand what Putin wanted to achieve by this missile strike now, during G7- it's so obviously self-hurting. It seems he really just don't give a **** anymore.

What is interesting is that Putin and his flunkies haven't bothered to look back into history and see that there's no example of terrorism breaking the will of a motivated country to continue fighting.  In fact, it does the opposite.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

Putin is a petulant child having a hissy fit over the fact he is not getting things his way.   To me, this attack was not unexpected.  In fact, I am surprised that more missiles aren't raining down on Ukrainian civilians.  Hopefully that is more to do with diminishing stocks of missiles.  But yeah.  Putin's demise can't come fast enough, IMO.

Edited June 27, 2022 by BlackMoria