How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here it is:

https://www.palba.cz/viewtopic.php?t=5971

https://www.palba.cz/viewtopic.php?t=5972

https://www.palba.cz/viewtopic.php?t=5974

It is called "podpraporshchik Argonantus in war that wasn't" and it's written by two guys - Argonantus who was conscript tank commander serving sometime in 1980 (made commander because he was conscripted after finishing college) and Pátrač or Neferit - logistics and I think formerly recon career officer of Czechoslovak People's Army.

It might be sometimes confusingly written because there's sections that are written as "this is how it was" but sometimes this turns into a dialogue where one of them disagrees or describes different experience. I skimmed how it looks on google translate and it seems somewhat readable, but if you need a paragraph explained, let me know. (One thing I noticed is Google calls podpraporcik either lieutenant or lt. col., but of course he was neither).

At least there's cute hand-drawn pictures of tank tactics.

Hope it helps!

Thank you!

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Found another interesting bit from civilian Girkin (It is infamous in Russia Anatoly Nesmian). While it is not about military I believe some pieces are interesting to get a feel about RU civil life. Tell me if you do not want it.

 

Always interested in Russian translations, even more so when a native speaker has has sorted out things that at least might be information from the firehose of nonsense the Russian media pumps out as a matter policy.

[Artkin]

36 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Because the alternative is 120mm mortar which is even closer. Previously due to RU tactics I believed that 120mm is a must for infantry.

I agree. The 120mm mortar can't fire as far as a similar caliber howitzer. They have a totally different trajectory anyway, apples and oranges.

Of course now counter battery radars on the battlefield change things up. I don't see mortars going anywhere yet, but it's easy to see why they would rather operate a platform with longer range. Advanced man-portable weapons with smaller munitions will be the future. Having the ability to quickly move and hide your equipment on the battlefield will be extremely valuable.

If there was a platform similar to caesar with a 105mm gun, I would say heck yeah. That little wagon could shoot and scoot super fast.

[Huba]

28 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I agree. The 120mm mortar can't fire as far as a similar caliber howitzer. They have a totally different trajectory anyway, apples and oranges.

Of course now counter battery radars on the battlefield change things up. I don't see mortars going anywhere yet, but it's easy to see why they would rather operate a platform with longer range. Advanced man-portable weapons with smaller munitions will be the future. Having the ability to quickly move and hide your equipment on the battlefield will be extremely valuable.

If there was a platform similar to caesar with a 105mm gun, I would say heck yeah. That little wagon could shoot and scoot super fast.

Poland is introducing self-propelled, breech loaded, turreted mortars caled Rak (cancer or crayfish) in it's Patria AMV based brigades, 8 per battalion. With modern ammunition advertised range should be around 10km. I wonder how war in Ukraine will verify that idea. On one hand, firing range is rather short - on the other firepower is awesome, and vehicle should be able to scoot from the position in 15 seconds.

Or if you want something really light, CARDOM mortar on HMMWV should have similar firepower.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Huba

[Artkin]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Or if you want something really light, CARDOM mortar on HMMWV should have similar firepower.

Now that's what I'm talking about. I didn't read too much into that article but if the system is cheap (Hopefully the only innovation is the recoil reduction system) then it could be fielded all over the place quickly and cause serious attrition along the front line.

That Patria is cool, but the whole heavy weapons platform never appealed to me. I'm looking at you Stryker MGS. I personally think they should have 30mm autocannons/atgms at the most. Anything heavier is going beyond what is reasonable for that platform.

IMO.

[hcrof]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

Poland is introducing self-propelled, breech loaded, turreted mortars caled Rak (cancer or crayfish) in it's Patria AMV based brigades, 8 per battalion. With modern ammunition advertised range should be around 10km. I wonder how war in Ukraine will verify that idea. On one hand, firing range is rather short - on the other firepower is awesome, and vehicle should be able to scoot from the position in 15 seconds.

Or if you want something really light, CARDOM mortar on HMMWV should have similar firepower.

I think that you can do a lot with a Rak type system - with tight drone integration it can scoot around causing chaos and could even fire smart ammunition to function as a tank hunter. In fact, a small/armoured/unmanned version of this is what I think of when I think of a new "tanklike" UGV: depress the barrel for direct fire against APCs, indirect smart fire against tanks and mortar capability/MG against infantry. 

[dan/california]

https://www.amgeneral.com/what-we-do/platforms-automotive-systems/vehicle-lineup/humvee-2ct-hawkeye-mhs/#:~:text=The Humvee 2-CT Hawkeye,indirect and direct fire mode.

A 105 mounted on a HUMVEE!

https://www.amgeneral.com/what-we-do/platforms-automotive-systems/vehicle-lineup/brutus-155mm-mhs/

And truck mounted 155 Caesar analog, although it looks like a much shorter barrel.

Anyway the memo seems to be well and truly out that putting the gun ON the truck is a 100 times more useful than towing the gun BEHIND the truck and praying the the other sides drones/counter battery don't find you while you are breaking it down to get it back on the hitch.

[Artkin]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

 

(actually something they advertised)

[Suleyman]

I’d say the top tier Russian infantry is probably contract regulars since they pull up in BTGs and various supports. Spetsnaz, VDV, and Wagner seem to be more capable when it comes to infantry on infantry. LDNR guys seem to be used to hold territory more. 
 

I don’t think the winter will be good for any side, as you guys said logistics is a problem. It’s gonna be a lot of artillery duels going on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either side launches a winter offensive

[Artkin]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A 105 mounted on a HUMVEE!

I'm having trouble finding any kind of shoot and scoot timing for this. I didn't find anything official but one website mentioned a 2 minute setup, and another website mentioned a 1 minute packup after firing. Neither of these were credible sources.

The 120mm mortar SPEAR has an advertised time to target of 90seconds. I assume this means deployment time until the shell lands. They didn't specify a range for that though.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

NY Times article offering various observations and opinions. Nothing earth shaking.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pivotal-period-ukraine-u-officials-115145667.html

Quote

Stephen Biddle, a military expert and professor of international relations at Columbia University, said the imagery suggested that the Russians were using old ammunition that had been poorly maintained.

But inefficient artillery can still be very destructive when employed en masse.

“Quantity has a quality all its own.”

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I’d say the top tier Russian infantry is probably contract regulars since they pull up in BTGs and various supports. Spetsnaz, VDV, and Wagner seem to be more capable when it comes to infantry on infantry. LDNR guys seem to be used to hold territory more. 

For sure RU elite are better on average.  Regular infantry is also somewhat better on average after all LDNR losses.  However, this war is not elite units war. Neither is it infantry war. In Donbas it is hard drone-artillery slog.

Artillery and drone wise LDNR is far better due to sheer experience and much better flexibility + they have hard core infantry cadre who is on pair with RU elite.

3 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I don’t think the winter will be good for any side, as you guys said logistics is a problem. It’s gonna be a lot of artillery duels going on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either side launches a winter offensive

Ukrainian winter as not as extreme as you might think. Given proper preparation you can advance. It is actually better to do it in Winter than during Rasputiza season.

Here is video from Debaltsevo battle.

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I think that you can do a lot with a Rak type system - with tight drone integration it can scoot around causing chaos and could even fire smart ammunition to function as a tank hunter. In fact, a small/armoured/unmanned version of this is what I think of when I think of a new "tanklike" UGV: depress the barrel for direct fire against APCs, indirect smart fire against tanks and mortar capability/MG against infantry. 

The thing that I think would be incredibly useful is a 60mm mortar on a HUMVEE or similar with a digital fire control system. ROF for a sixty is close to twenty rounds a minute. If the FCS was automatically tweaking the aim between shots you could REALLY inconvenience a football field or two of bad guys and be on your way out of dodge ten seconds after the last round left the barrel. No it isn't going  win the top tier counter battery fight, but that isn't the only thing going on.

[dan/california]

Either planes , pilots, or both are showing the stress of nearly four months of conflict.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Police Major Vladimir Shabalin, Republic of Tuva Rosgvardia SOBR “Ezim”:

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

LDNR guys seem to be used to hold territory more.

No. "Regular" LDNR brigades often have combat experience, higher that regular Russian infantry. I read, that Russian sappers are learning from them, because their combat experience of Syria didn't work in Ukraine. Though, regular LDNR troops have more problems with discipline and supply.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

For sure RU elite are better on average.  Regular infantry is also somewhat better on average after all LDNR losses.  However, this war is not elite units war. Neither is it infantry war. In Donbas it is hard drone-artillery slog.

Artillery and drone wise LDNR is far better due to sheer experience and much better flexibility + they have hard core infantry cadre who is on pair with RU elite.

Or is their apparent better success because they have the larger numbers of infantry? That has been a limiting factor since day one for the RA. Also, the artillery offensive model is deemed to be adapted by the RA because they have a lot of arty and not much infantry. Their good infantry formations (VDV and Naval Inf) have suffered pretty bad attrition since day one as they have been the shock troops and in many cases sacrificed unnecessarily. Regular formations didn't start with enough infantry and the replacements for the manpower have basically been coming from the LDNR conscriptions. 

To say the LDNR is above average is questionable. Their units folded pretty quick north of Kharkov. They also attacked north and south of Donetsk daily for the first 3 months of the war without hardly any results. The gains around Lyman and Popasna were orchestrated by RA forces and in particular Wagner, Naval Infantry and VDV remnants. So far the LDNR troops haven't really carried the day anywhere that I'm aware of. 

It is possible that there are examples and I would ask them to be shared. Seriously, if I'm looking at this wrong please share and let me modify my perspective.

[DesertFox]

About time they figured something out.

 

 

Slovakia has defined a "scheme" according to which it is ready to transfer MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)

[Artkin]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The thing that I think would be incredibly useful is a 60mm mortar on a HUMVEE or similar with a digital fire control system. ROF for a sixty is close to twenty rounds a minute. If the FCS was automatically tweaking the aim between shots you could REALLY inconvenience a football field or two of bad guys and be on your way out of dodge ten seconds after the last round left the barrel. No it isn't going  win the top tier counter battery fight, but that isn't the only thing going on.

That's literally what I wrote to you about. The 120mm SPEAR is a little system that they advertise off the bed of a humvee. 15RPM, 7000m range (on the video... not sure what full power would be), with a time to target of 1.5 minutes.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Artkin

[Harmon Rabb]

An update regarding the recent attack on Snake island.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Artkin said:

That's literally what I wrote to you about. The 120mm SPEAR is a little system that they advertise off the bed of a humvee. 15RPM, 7000m range (on the video... not sure what full power would be), with a time to target of 1.5 minutes.

Found a video that works. Very capable system if that recoil mechanism holds up. I would love to see a thousand shot test, or at least the results.

 

[Suleyman]

@Grigb @Haiduk

Good information, I did take into account the combat experience of LDNR but I assumed that since the regular Russian units are seeing heavy combat and being rotated the experience should be catching up, and the fact that they are better equipped they would be more formidable. 
 

As for Ukrainians, what is considered their top tier? I know kraken, azov, aidar has some elite & extremely tough soldiers.

[Haiduk]

Today situation on SE from Lysychansk suddenly got worse. Russians threw in the battle additional forces, concentrated there more artillery and airstrikes and this gave result - they could eithther push off our troops from Toshkivka - Ustynivka line, or even to breakthrough our defense there, due to their further advance. 

If in previous weeks main attacking forces there were mostly represented by 4th LPR motor-rifle brigade, then several days ago  Russians moved here two BTGs of 39th motor-rifle brigade of 68th Army corps (Sakhalin) and units of 24th Spetsnaz brigade (Novosibirsk). Theese forces together with at least two BTGs of 4th LPR brigade after taking Toskivka and Ustynivka today, after short regrouping tried to come with one spurt on southern outskirts of Lysychansk and close the trap behind our troops in Zolote-Hirske area. They partillay had success in this, capturing villages Chykhyrove, Myrna Dolyna and Pidlisne, but were stoppped near Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka villages. Their advance in direction of Ltsychansk through Bila Hora village also was partially successful, but the village still under our control. 

Russians also are making preparations to river crossing in area Pryvillia - Synetskyi (from Kreminna - Rubizhne area) toward own goup, which advances along Siverskyi Donets river to Lysychansk through Bila Hora from SE. Crossing forces - elements of 55th motor-rifle (mountain) brigade (Tuva republic, 41st CAA) and 40th engineer-sapper regiment (the same 41st CAA).

PS. Information according Konstantyn Mashovets, UKR military analyst

Edited June 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today situation on SE from Lysychansk suddenly got worse. Russians threw in the battle additional forces, concentrated there more artillery and airstrikes and this gave result - they could eithther push off our troops from Toshkivka - Ustynivka line, or even to breakthrough our defense there, due to their further advance. 

If in previous weeks main atatcking forces there was 4th LPR motor-rifle brigade, then several days ago  Russians moved here two BTGs of 39th motor-rifle brigade of 68th Army corps (Sakhalin) and units of 24th Spetsnaz brigade (Novosibirsk). Theese forces together with at least two BTGs of 4th LPR brigade after taking Toskivka and Ustynivka today, after short regrouping tried to come with one spurt on southern outskirts of Lysychansk and close the trap behind our troops in Zolote-Hirske area. They partillay had success in this, capturing villages Chykhyrove, Myrna Dolyna and Pidlisne, but were stoppped near Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka villages. Their advance in direction of Ltsychansk through Bila Hora village also was partially successful, but the village still under our control. 

Russians also are making preparations to river crossing in area Pruvillia - Synetskyi (from Kreminna - Rubizhne area) toward own goup, which advances along Siverskyi Donets river to Lysychansk through Bila Hora from SE. Crossing forces - elements of 55th motor-rifle bigade and 40th engineer-sapper regiment.

PS. Information according Konstantyn Mashovets, UKR military analyst

This is not good news, but not totally unexpected either.  They have been making steady progress in Toshkivka over the past few days, even claiming complete control (which was not true, obviously).

Even if this breakthrough bogs down quickly, as almost all others have, I don't think Ukraine can retain Zolote-Hirske.  The primary supply artery is now cut and there's a serious risk of being surrounded on all sides.  If Ukraine can't launch a counter offensive and push back the breakthrough forces, withdrawal seems like the only option.

These repeated Russian breakthroughs are pretty indicative of the war in general.  If Russia chooses to invest in a narrow sector of front, it can breach the Ukrainian lines if they are able to sustain a lot of casualties.  But once through Ukraine usually has enough forces to at least stall further Russian advances, yet not enough to compel the Russians to retreat.

Steve

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

@Grigb @Haiduk

Good information, I did take into account the combat experience of LDNR but I assumed that since the regular Russian units are seeing heavy combat and being rotated the experience should be catching up, and the fact that they are better equipped they would be more formidable. 
 

As for Ukrainians, what is considered their top tier? I know kraken, azov, aidar has some elite & extremely tough soldiers.

There is impossible to make some "avaraged" assesments. Even among LDPR regular brigades exists the "core" of motivated experienced fighters and those, who came to army for money. So evem inside their battalions and companies all can be enough different. Many depends from commanders. 

But this is a fact, that even Russians recognize LDPR regulars have more will to fight, than many "ususal" Russian contract infantry. 

Among UKR forces, most tough and experienced units are 93rd mech.brigade, 72nd mech.brigade, 95th air-assault brigade, though in this war all fight beyond own capabilities...