How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Suleyman]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Digest of "Aerorozvidka" UAV unit R18 drone-bombers in action. Looks like this "deadly snowflekes" more effective, than Bayraktars

 

Those are gonna be more of a pain than TB-2s because of the small size, it would make it very hard to detect. How much armor does the bomb they drop penetrate? I'd assume at worse it would hurt the sensors and optics on AFVs, and take out the engine if it hits it. 

[Calamine Waffles]

  

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Digest of "Aerorozvidka" UAV unit R18 drone-bombers in action. Looks like this "deadly snowflakes" are more effective, than Bayraktars

TB-2 is significantly larger than those drones, so it is easier to shoot them down with air defences.

 

Just now, Suleyman said:

Those are gonna be more of a pain than TB-2s because of the small size, it would make it very hard to detect. How much armor does the bomb they drop penetrate? I'd assume at worse it would hurt the sensors and optics on AFVs, and take out the engine if it hits it. 

RKG-1600 is basically just an RKG-3 with 3D-printed fins, so 220 mm penetration shaped charge if it lands correctly.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Managed to watch Girkin/Kvatchkov video from Murz rant. I am putting my notes here. Sorry for dumping it like this and also for mistakes in translation. But I am tired listening them and taking notes. Unfortunatly I might not be able to do anything tomorrow or during the weekend. But I do not want to leave it till Monday. So, here it is. 

Disclaimer - take it with grain of salt. These guys are not like official 100% correct source. They might lie. They might be mistaken. I might got something wrong as well.

I also cut political takes and anything I saw as unimportant.

The most important - Ru offensive is already defeated they just kipping it going to fix UKR forces, keep initiative and for political show. UKR cannot penetrate deep and collapse RU defense due to RU aviation. RU aviation is only thing that keeps UKR from fast break outs (implying unlike defensive AA which is excellent, UKR mobile AA are not as good or they are lacking them or there is a problem). 

1. UKR morale is not as low as it might be seen from news with TD complaints. Cases of TD complaints are too few compared to the overall forces involved. Mostly because they were at the tipping spear of RU offensive and got hit hard by RU arty.

2. UKR TD is equipped much better than Mobiks(mobilized)  of LDNR forces.

3. At Kharkiv UKR collapsed Luhansk Mobiks pushed till the border but now regular RU forces very slowly are pushing UKR back.

4. UKR have really defeated formations (implying TD but maybe not) but too few of them and they will be rotated out of frontline and restored. Nothing out of the ordinary for big war.

5. Some RU divisions have up 60% of refuseniks, especially from Kavkaz.

6. Legal wise RU refusniks and even deserters are very difficult to prosecute without full war mobilization.

7. Girking confessed during 2014 he took part in some "War time" trials which resulted in executions. They executed their own troops who committed serious crimes, marauders, and enemy war criminals [whatever that means].

8. Fuming UKR are more competent in maintaining Army moral and dealing with deserters.

9. Claiming there is high chance that captured British nationals will get amnesty or will be exchanged.

10. They are believing foreign nationals are coming for safari to hunt Russians.

11. Currently UKR are mostly using French guns (implying for hitting Donetsk area) [probably due to a longer-range RU has difficulty dealing with].

12. All RU 152mm Msta guns are at main front (implying Severodonetsk). So they have difficulty dealing with long range UKR guns in Donetsk area.

13. Too few satellites for recon.

14. RU cannot provide air recon for CB due to lack of drones (implying Orlan). Looks like he is avoiding mentioning aircraft for some reason, may be because it shameful to admit that VVS failure as well.  

15. Mavic Drone cannot deal with arty for CB due to short range.

16. Donetsk, Makeivka, Gorlovka and other cannot be unprotected CB wise (implying lack long range arty and drones in the area).

17. RU forces cannot destroy UKR group in Donbas without major strategic reserves (implying currently there is none).

18. Reserves are being prepared. But it will not be enough. They can only balance out UKR existing forces. 

19. LDNR cannot provide an additional 20 regiments of light infantry (capable of guard duty behind lines). Not sure what he means about additional - either he means RU is building force of 20 regiments and LDNR cannot match that or LDNR in the past provided 20 regiments and cannot provide any more. Only compensate losses.

20. There is no more LDNR regular infantry. All Mobiks (mobilized)

21. LDNR civilians morale - dissatisfaction is rising but it is holding because everybody know UKR are going to kill them. [Good example how Russian pressure cooker holds internal pressure for a longer period then western country with bat**** crazy propaganda]

22. RU border regions are constantly attacked/shelled. Recon raids are becoming more common. Their morale is much lower. [RU regions less susceptible to RU propaganda]

23. LDNR will rebel but only after RU territory rebel first.

24. RU pilots report that flying lower than 2 km is a death sentence. Especially during the second run. That's why they have difficulty in using certain bombs like Vacuum bombs.

25. Any RU aircraft is too valuable as only aviation can deal with UKR mechanized attacks in certain areas. UKR attack on Dayd Brode (Herson) was stopped with heavy losses by RU aviation.

26. So, RU cannot bomb freely - too much of tactical AA which is sometimes superior to RU.

27. UKR fortifications (implying east region) are too numerous and deep. They have sometimes three level trenches (I do not know what it is)

28. Only in few areas there is smell of RU Aviation (including Helicopters)

29. No UKR aviation (As I understood UKR aviation is not hitting RU frontline at least at east region)

30. Heavy losses in Davidov Brody due to UKR forces getting out of AA umbrella. It was very dangerous break out.

 

 

Great job, thank you! 

Regarding RU aviation, I wonder what can be done about it? Apart from the Gepards, West doesn't really have any mobile AD that can keep up with mechanized forces. Hopefully Macron is not right about the fighter jets... 

[Grigb]

1. RU tactical aviation cannot operate anywhere UKR dug in and because UKR dug everywhere RU Tac Air is weak everywhere.

2. When Tac Air cannot support Land Forces the drone support is of critical importance.

3. AZER Forces destroyed ARMEN Arty with drones (implying it was war winning tactics). ARMEN Soviet AA made AZER Air ineffective, but AZER drones got arty (implying ARMEN Soviet AA could not deal with AZER drones).[AFAIR it was RU-based AA, it looks like Girkin just do not want to admit RU AA have difficulty with Drones)

4. RU extremely lacks recon drones.

5. Very few strike drones (but more than they have recon drones but not by much).

6. RU uses Caliber missile to do what US does with long range drones.

7. It looks like sone Tochka U will be used in masses due to lack of other PGMs (may be exaggeration as Girkin got emotional)

8. No comment regarding UKR shopping list - they look like they do not know what to say.

9. There are some preparation for mobilization but it means nothing as there is no guaranty mobilization will be called.

10. There is secret partial mobilization to make up losses. New formations are being made but there are too few of them. It is not a strategic reserve.

11. For 1 Army HQ (there are around 11 armies deployed) there are 1.2 classical division as per number BTG/battalions.

12. 100,000 additional soldiers will allow only match UKR numbers.

13. RU RPO-A flamethrower (rocket propelled one) has real range about 100 meters due to accuracy. Still needs skilled shooter.

14. Main fight happens with Arty and mortars. everything short ranges is more or less irrelevant.

15. A RU general at Kharkiv asked his forces why they are running and not hitting UKR back with RPO-A (implying it happened during that famous RU collapse). They replied we are being hit with arty with much longer range. [Anecdote to show military incompetence and strange RU believe in magic of RU flame weapons)

16. Girkin used to shoot with RPO-A once. Missed from 50 meters. Claims he could hit standing man target with underslung launcher from 50 meters.

17. TOS difficult to use due to short range - lightly armoured, kills crew when hit even with mortar round.

18. They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck]

19. Girkin fuming that de facto there is no Flying Zone over UKR. He is claiming foreign planes deliver weapons directly to UKR. Claims there is conspiracy of sort.

20. LDNR tries to block RU volunteers from joining LDNR forces. Probably to block spread of information that LDNR forces are poor and poorly controlled cannon fodder.

21. RU grabing anybody they can for contract soldier but do not recall reserve officers - probably believe they have enough. They have enough regular officers and reserve officers could be politically unreliable. Ru main concern loyalty and not merit.

22. There is not enough modern weapons.

23. Kremlin is afraid of forming Ukrainian formations due to their questionable loyalty.

24. They believe West will exterminate RU that why they must destroy Ukraine to stop being used by West to kill RU. [No comments]

25. Operations take that long time because with current forces it is impossible to win (implying they are just prolonging the war).

26. Lack of drones is because nobody cares in MOD and other GovDepts.[Where Girkin was last 20 years? On a different planet?]

27. Girkin believe in due time UKR will start striking Crimea but he is not sure.

28. RU did not surround Severodonets area before assault due to lack of forces. UKR are fighting back hard.

29. When RU cut Artemovsk-Lisichans road UKR counter-attacked and pushed them back. Road is currently under RU fire only.

30. UKR terrain is flat terrain cut by recess with rivers and creeks and there are a lot of agricultural roads around. In dry season very easy to put bridges over these rivers and creeks to make another fully usable road to bypass dangerous part. Because of that the supply of UKR group is not cut.

31. Because supply is not cut UKR is not retreating from Zolotoe and Gorskoe to Lisichansk.

32. Because of that the only way is to frontally assault them.

33. Not enough forces to assault Slavynsk - tough defenses. It is large city agglomeration which needs to be assault from everywhere (implying not enough forces)

34. RU offence continues not because they hope for success but because they need to show activity. [Remember I talked about Pressure Cooker?] Also because they try to fix UKR forces. Finally if it stops UKR from getting initiative (implying RU will go totally defensive if stops)

35. Everybody already realized that current RU offensive cannot destroy UKR donbas group.[It looks like RU forces have to go defensive but cannot accept that and advancing where they can advance due to previous preparations. They simply cannot advance everywhere else even if it will yield better results)

36. They do believe that RU is not fighting seriously due to Kremlin conspiracy

37. They claim Brigadisation of RU army was to improve rebellion suppression capabilities of the Army. After some time it was canceled but they could not in time create enough proper divisions (Army HQ - divisions ratio above)

38. It was better to advance toward Kharkiv. Had better chance of success with much worse moral effect for UKR.

39. Current RU offensive did not give RU any strategic advantages except  [Victory] reports on TV.

40. They hope Slavyansk would not be attacked at all due to expected heavy losses.

41. Without general cleansing of top RU command and government war cannot be won.

42. But they will win anyway with or without Putin.

I am off to bed. Write if you need to clarify anything. If i have time tomorrow I will check it. 

[Suleyman]

220 MM penetration? Ouch those small drones can actually do a lot of damage, if I was the UKR forces I would definitely do daily raids with those it could make a big difference tactically. The Russians might start catching on doing the same too.

The push for Kherson sounds a little risky for me from UKR, I saw the terrain and if I'm not mistaken isn't the terrain open and kind of flat? That will leave them open to aviation and artillery strikes, no? 

[Calamine Waffles]

It will if they concentrate forces, which is why the southern Ukrainian offensive is quite slow. They're mostly fighting by infiltrating in infantry forces, especially at night.

[Suleyman]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It will if they concentrate forces, which is why the southern Ukrainian offensive is quite slow. They're mostly fighting by infiltrating in infantry forces, especially at night.

Smart move if the goal is to inflict damage. 

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 6/15/2022 at 1:21 PM, Harmon Rabb said:

Is this news credible? If so is it time to sanction China?

Looks like this thread will bring up China topic every 20 pages, inevitable destiny. Usually I will avoid because I believe this is off topic, also a lot of other members put some very good analysis and insights below. But I would just like to add some comments here.

China is helping Russian to stabilize its currency and inflation level by importing Russian oil/gas at higher than market level price , exporting the low cost consumer goods. And that’s it, nothing else. There are speculation that Chinese leadership is pushing for companies ignore the sanction but no avail. US sanction on Huawei and ZTE looks too scary. With China locked in some political drama this year, none of the Chinese corporation has the initiative to challenge the sanction (which I will explain later)

But the noise of “China is directly supporting Russia war efforts” will not go away. Almost every side is interested in to prove this is correct.

 

America:  making enough noise should remind the Chinese corporations don’t cross the red line, sending a clear message to the faction in CCP that pro business with western, Uncle Sam means business. To preserve our long time partner ship (and profits), you got to stand up and prevent such terrible things from happening. The threat of sanction should also reduce the volume of those panda hugger in Wall st, and make the international investor who want to invest into China think twice (OK, in the age of crazy inflation/recession, invest into America instead, I get it.)  ,

 

Russia: Back in 2019, a journalist asked Mr Putin that in the age of trade war between China and US, which one Russian will be side with. Putin replied , “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins”. And this “Smart” monkey made a fatal mistake, got trapped, tigers wandering around the poor monkey. Monkey’s only hope is to have the tigers fight each other asap.  It looks like Putin and Xi had some kind of agreement during Beijing winter Olympic. Regarding how Russian can retaliate China if China refused to help, first , Russia can use the agreement to blackmail Xi

https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449

If that doesn’t work as intended , Russia can look for a different option, leak all the secrets to the public. Pushing Uncle Sam to keep his promise and sanction China. After that it’s probably out of control but that is what Russia needs, a chaos.

 

 

Now the most interesting one is China:  President Xi’s inner circle has used all available resource advocating “blood alliance” with Russia. Although never admitted publicly, under the instruction of Publicity Department many news outlets and influencers spread the rumor says Russia has received tremendous war materials from China. Funny thing, this propaganda is for internal political struggle.

Contrary to common popular belief, China is not a dictatorship. It is an oligarchy. Although people love to compare Emperor Xi to Chairman Mao, Xi is not a dictator yet.  Of course, we can safely assume he wants to be the Emperor. And due to the fact that he have made so many enemies,  he’d better to become the dictator to save his ass. So the scheduled ccp 20th party congress become a super important event. The country’s future, many elites families’ fate will be decided in this congress. Xi is facing a strong resistance at this moment. TBH it is unlikely he will be sacked in 20th party congress, but the opposition factions can block many important positions previously promised to Xi’s follower, which makes him a caged tiger without teeth. 

In order to secure his position, expand his territory, Xi must show the Party that under his leadership China has become

1, economic powerhouse: No one is going to deny that, but generally Chinese economic take a downturn under Xi 2^nd term. It could face a crisis later this year. Of course, a projected western recession works in his favor. And a Chinese economic crisis works as a double edge sword, bad economic could damage Xi’s opposition factions’ power and influence, boost the message to all party members that we need an isolated, self-sustainable economic, and a STRONG LEADER

2, unification of the whole country: not going to happen this year, but maybe PLA can make a limit size operation, occupy Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping Island

3, successfully defend the population from pandemic: people will buy this in 2021, but with crazy strict lockdown this year, other factions interests have been badly damaged, it may have forced many neutral factions take the opposite side

4, China has taken the leadership of new world order: If Putin can come out as a victorious one. Or even a draw should be good enough, Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party will brainwash the population and make people believe that Nato and America is doomed. Empty word won’t help however, Xi must find a way to supply Russia. Unfortunately, most of the Chinese high-tech corporations, military enterprise are controlled by factions that is either hostile to Xi or don’t want to take a side at this moment. So, Xi’s inner circle must make a lot of noise, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.  The propaganda campaign hopefully will convince some of the factions, that ignore US sanction and helping Russia is taking the side with the winning party.  I know this sounds stupid and could backfire. No one guarantee this will work, but that is their plan.

 

 

[Beleg85]

42 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck]

It seems conspiracy is answer to anything in RU army...

Bloody great (and ironic) analysis Grigb, thanks.

[Huba]

 

[Machor]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Still, that was largely done under Separatists cover thus far.  And one of reasons why characters like Motorolla or Givi are not there with us anymore (for the good of whole humanity).

I had no illusions as what Russians will do to Ukrainians, but was surprised by scale, scope and how they rushed things, especially near Kyiv.

This. With things getting into genuine genocide territory, it's painful to just sit it out.

And "NATO going in" can mean different things... If Ukrainian mechanized counterattacks are being stopped by Russian aviation... There are four Dutch and an undisclosed [I believe] number of US F-35s in Bulgaria... Plausible deniability is a bitch.

[Machor]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Russian Joker (Navalny) - the guy seems to have unnatural ability to survive where all others died. Even current imprisonment can be seen as making sure he survives until he is needed. This implies he is under KGB protection but most likely not under Putin but somebody else because of Putin's ego issues.

Thank you for the great post - out of likes. I was reminded of how 'miraculous' Navalny's survival seemed after his poisoning with Novichok - as if he had a guardian angel looking after him - and pulled up a BBC timeline that I'll quote with my emphases showing Navalny's 'protection':

Alexei Navalny: Two hours that saved Russian opposition leader's life

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54012278

"His assistant, Ilya Pakhomov, walked down the aisle appealing for medical assistance. A woman, who hasn't been identified, came forward to say she was a nurse.

For the next hour she and the flight attendants focused on keeping Mr Navalny conscious until the pilot could make an emergency landing, according to S7 airlines."

""A few minutes after the call-out for a doctor, Alexei started moaning and screaming. He was clearly in pain. He was lying on the floor in the part of the plane reserved for cabin crew. He wasn't saying any words - he was just screaming."

That was when a nurse went forward to offer medical assistance, he explains.

"I don't know what they were doing, I didn't see," he says. "But I heard them keep on saying 'Alexei, drink, drink, Alexei, breathe!'"

"The lawyer heard retching noises as they urged him to drink.

Was his stomach pumped?"

"Had they suspected food poisoning, the crew may have tried to, says Israeli intensive care expert Mikhail Fremderman. "But that wouldn't have helped in a case of poisoning with organophosphorus compounds, which is what the Germans are now talking about."

And if Mr Navalny's food or drink had been poisoned, throwing up would have posed a risk to those offering him medical assistance, as well as those cleaning up the plane later."

So yeah, Navalny was really lucky to have on board that random nurse who's never been found give the right instructions for poisoning with a nerve agent, and not do your regular food poisoning thing - Russia must have the best nurses in the world. 

[Machor]

Since we've had a lot of discussion about Russia's ability to replace its materiel losses and in particular its dependence on foreign microchips, here's a relevant WaPo article from yesterday:

U.S. probing how American electronics wound up in Russian military gear

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/15/us-computer-chips-russian-military/

"FBI and Commerce Department agents are visiting tech companies to ask about computer chips found in drones, other weaponry"

"Russia manufactures few computer chips or electronics of its own, forcing it to rely on imports.

The United States for decades has tightly controlled sales to Russia of the highest-tech chips and those designed for military use, requiring exporters to obtain a government license. But sales of electronics below that threshold — including the kind commonly found in commercial products — were not widely restricted until 2014, when the United States began requiring exporters to obtain licenses before selling a broader range of chips to the Russian military.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the U.S. and many allies have prohibited all chip sales to Russian military buyers, and placed restriction on chip sales to other Russian buyers in an effort to prevent the country’s armed forces from accessing western high-tech."

"A single piece of radio-jamming equipment revealed computer chips from a dozen U.S. companies, including Intel, Analog Devices, Texas Instruments and Onsemi, according to a report RUSI published in April. The gear also contained components from half a dozen chipmakers in Europe, Japan and Taiwan.

The report published the part numbers for the components, which The Washington Post used to identify the chip companies.

The radio-interference equipment, named Borisoglebsk-2, was designed to interrupt the enemy’s communications and was probably manufactured around 2015 or later, Nick Reynolds, one of the report’s authors, said in an interview.

None of the Western chips was specifically designed for use in military equipment, according to two electrical engineers who reviewed the component list. The parts were developed for general commercial use, and many were relatively outdated, manufactured between 2000 and 2010, the engineers said.

“A lot of these components are very general purpose and could be used in wide range of devices,” said Peter Bermel, an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at Purdue University. “Most of the items they are listing are available through any commercial computer parts supplier or digital parts supplier.”

“A non-trivial fraction of these parts are now considered obsolete by the manufacturers,” Bermel added.

Reynolds, a research analyst for land warfare at RUSI, said Russia’s technical demise in recent decades, partly sparked by a large post-Soviet brain drain, has forced it to use Western chips. “Its defense industry has struggled to attract and retain talented young engineers, who have often chosen to move abroad instead,” Reynolds said by email."

"The RUSI researchers also reported inspecting a U.S.-manufactured component that the Ukrainian military found inside a Russian 9M949 guided rocket. The rocket uses the component — a type of electronic device called a fiber-optic gyroscope — for navigation, RUSI said.

The British researchers declined to name the U.S. company that made that component, saying RUSI was continuing to research that and other parts."

Edited June 16, 2022 by Machor
spelling

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It will if they concentrate forces, which is why the southern Ukrainian offensive is quite slow. They're mostly fighting by infiltrating in infantry forces, especially at night.

 

This just seems to be the Ukrainian's key are of relative superiority. It may be that they just need to keep doing it. Slow and successful is better than fast and on fire.

[Machor]

And the logical follow-up - how Russia is trying to replace its manpower losses:

Russian army ramps up recruitment as steep casualties thin the ranks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/16/russia-military-army-soldiers-recruitment/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter

"In a recruiting ad posted in Rostov-on-Don, just a few hundred miles away from Ukraine, a deep voice narrates: “Test the limits of your abilities! No, screw the limits, are you ready to break yourself every day?” The action-packed ad continues: “You’ve decided to prove something to yourself. You are trying to detect an enemy in every shadow because if there is no enemy, there is no fight, and if there is no fight, there is no victory.”

Recruitment efforts have been particularly obvious in St. Petersburg, where an inflated figure of a smiling, uniformed officer waved at passersby earlier this month, beckoning them into an enlistment office to learn more about the perks of serving in a professional army.

Job listings and recruitment fliers offer a modest base pay that can go up to $3,500 to 4,000 a month with bonuses. Each day of combat, for instance, yields extra pay of about $55. These sums eclipse the Russian median salary of about $600 a month and, together with low-interest mortgages and various other subsidies, can be appealing, especially in a shrinking economy."

[Machor]

Cockpit view of Ukrainian Mi-8MSB doing the flying MLRS thing with 122mm S-13 rockets - note the US helo helmet of the co-pilot:

 

[Bearstronaut]

22 minutes ago, Machor said:

And the logical follow-up - how Russia is trying to replace its manpower losses:

Russian army ramps up recruitment as steep casualties thin the ranks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/16/russia-military-army-soldiers-recruitment/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter

"In a recruiting ad posted in Rostov-on-Don, just a few hundred miles away from Ukraine, a deep voice narrates: “Test the limits of your abilities! No, screw the limits, are you ready to break yourself every day?” The action-packed ad continues: “You’ve decided to prove something to yourself. You are trying to detect an enemy in every shadow because if there is no enemy, there is no fight, and if there is no fight, there is no victory.”

Recruitment efforts have been particularly obvious in St. Petersburg, where an inflated figure of a smiling, uniformed officer waved at passersby earlier this month, beckoning them into an enlistment office to learn more about the perks of serving in a professional army.

Job listings and recruitment fliers offer a modest base pay that can go up to $3,500 to 4,000 a month with bonuses. Each day of combat, for instance, yields extra pay of about $55. These sums eclipse the Russian median salary of about $600 a month and, together with low-interest mortgages and various other subsidies, can be appealing, especially in a shrinking economy."

Man, I don’t think there is any amount of money that would get me to sign up for this meat grinder. I say this as someone who volunteered for the US Army in 2009 when we were still in pretty serious combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. Fortunately for me Uncle Sam decided he needed me more on the Korean Peninsula than in the deserts of Iraq or the mountains of Afghanistan.

[MikeyD]

Of course my takeaway from the passing helicopter videos is the brief shot of an old weathered door resembles CM 'weathered door' texture art that's in the game. Priorities, priorities.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

 

[Bearstronaut]

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

This tweet is top notch. 

[Aragorn2002]

"Russian GRU spy tried to infiltrate International Criminal Court"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61831961

[LongLeftFlank]

There will be a democratic Russia, but not as Russia is understood today. Putin is ending his thousand year Reich in only twenty.

So stand up now, Belarusian, Novgorod, and Belgorod-Voronezh (Don-Volga) Republics!

 

These new republics, combined with Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics and fueled by copious Western (and JP-KOR) capital will create a medium-to-high tech manufacturing macro-region of some 120 million souls. All the infra and resource basics are there, and the human capital is good.

For numerous reasons, the global economy needs a second 'workshop' centre to (peacefully, we hope!) counterbalance a sharp-dealing China. This could well be it.

.... And Muscovy will either get with the program, or else become a geriatric ghost town within 10 years as its resource regions inexorably peel away and turn to China.

[/Hard yards ahead, but I reckoned we could use a little optimism for a change here]

[Harmon Rabb]

33 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Bro power!

[Battlefront.com]

Man, sometimes I get the feeling that ISW can read our minds!  Part of today (June 16) report is about Russian forces committed to the war thus far:

Quote

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces have already committed about 330,000 servicemen to their invasion of Ukraine without conducting partial or full-scale mobilization in Russia. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov stated that Russian forces grouped 150,000 servicemen into battalion tactical groups (BTGs) and other formations and involved additional 70,000 troops from air and sea elements, with the remaining personnel staffing non-combat support units.[6] Gromov noted that Russian forces committed more than 80,000 servicemen of the mobilized reserve, up to 7,000 reservists of the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-2021), up to 18,000 members of the Russian National Guard (Rosguardia), and up to 8,000 troops from private military companies. Gromov did not specify if Ukrainian officials included information about forcibly mobilized servicemen in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) in these numbers. Gromov noted that the Kremlin may still increase the number of Russian military personnel in Ukraine by executing covert or full mobilization.[7] Gromov noted that while it is unknown if the Kremlin will declare mobilization, Russian forces will still need time to execute the deployment and training of the new personnel whether or not the Kremlin announces full mobilization.

Pulling these numbers out it looks like this:

• 150,000 BTGs and direct support personnel
•   80,000 Mobilized Reserves
•     7,000 Combat Army Reserve (BAR@)
•   18,000 Rosguardia
•     8,000 PMCs (mostly Wagner)
•   70,000 Naval and Airforces

-----------------------------------------

         330,000 total Russian forces committed to Ukraine

Add to this some rather large number of DLPR personnel.  Anybody have any figures on what the total manpower investment is?  I'm guessing more than 50,000 and less than 100,000.  Unlike Russian forces, these are going to be much higher proportion of infantry than rear services.

 

To give us an idea of Russian losses thus far, we have 87,000 replacements.  It is unlikely that these were swapped in 1:1 for casualties.  Some would be filling the shows of Refusniks, cancelled contracts, and even desertions.  Yet we also are pretty sure that Russia hasn't increased it's overall ground force strength above what it started with, and in fact the evidence suggests lower than the start.  Therefore, I think it is fairly conservative estimate is that Russia has lost the equivalent of 87,000 soldiers as casualties or administrative losses.

What percentage of its total ground force has Russia lost since the war started?  Let's be generous and say 15%, which is about 9,000 KIA and 26,000 WIA.

Add to this losses from DLPR, which by all accounts are horrendous.  If we assume even 75,000 as their total manpower commitment, 20% casualties is equivalent to 3,700 KIA and another 11,000 WIA.

We also know that Rosguardia has suffered significant casualties and surely so has the PMCs.  Figure 10% for them and we get another 450 KIA and 1,300 WIA.  Add in another 300 KIA and 200 WIA for Naval and Airforces (bunch of pilots and Muskova crew, mostly).

Add the conservative numbers up we get Russia's total casualties, including proxy fighters, of roughly 13,500 KIA and 38,500 WIA, for a total of 52,000 total casualties.  That's about 13% losses for all Russian and proxy forces and close to the 15% guess I made back on Page 899.

That seems a reasonable and conservative accounting.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/strange-debacle-misadventures-in-assessing-russian-military-power/

Western defense analysts have long debated the efficacy of battalion tactical groups, but no credible analyst would have predicted that the Russians wouldn’t use them, opting instead to send unsupported small units into a gantlet of ambushes. When Russian forces have deployed in these groups, they’ve been badly understrength....

If Western analysts erred regarding Russian logistics and command and control, it was in assuming Russia was aware of its limitations and would craft limited war plans to minimize them, rather than exacerbate them by launching a massive multi-pronged invasion of the second-largest country in Europe.

But here comes the punch....

The obvious temptation is to discount the potential performance of Russian forces. While tempting, this would be foolhardy.

In the near term, this approach would likely underestimate Russia’s capacity to resist Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Russian forces clearly lacked the logistical and command capacity to execute audacious regime-change operations, but these shortcomings will be less problematic in a defensive posture nearer Russian territory. A maximalist strategy to expel all Russian forces from pre-2014 Ukrainian territory might therefore be morally satisfying, but militarily infeasible.

(Goes on to talk about China, which I find off topic although others seem determined to discuss at length here)