How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the war...

There was some mention back about the Izyum salient having received about 3 full strength BTGs worth of reinforcements.  I'm pretty sure at least some of these fores came from Kaliningrad.  There was some open source reporting on that.  If so, then they must have been moved by ship to St. Petersburg or flown out over the Baltic and through Russian airspace, because the land bridge is closed.  The rest appear to have come from the Far East.

Russia still hasn't shown much aptitude for exploitation, so I'm hopeful that this breakthrough will grind to a halt just like all their others, in particular Popasna.  Remember how bleak that looked at first and I predicted it would stabilize and (fortunately) that is what happened.

This is obviously a bad sort term development for Ukraine no matter what.  However, everything has to be kept in context. 

1. The most obvious, is that Ukraine has not surrendered 100+ days after Russia had intended to have complete victory.  That must never be forgotten. 
2. Russia broke through Izyum somewhere around April 1st.  TWO MONTHS AGO.  Not a great track record for speed. 
3. Russia's forces along the rest of the Donbas front are obviously spent as an effective offensive force.  Even if Ukraine has to do a withdrawal from all positions east of Slavyansk, it is probable they can do it in good order. 
4. even if Russia does manage to bottle up some Ukrainian forces, there's a pretty solid track record of Ukrainian forces continuing to fight and Russians dying in large numbers trying to wipe them out. 
5. Russia doesn't have a good track record for quickly/easily taking fortified urban areas. 
6. we have something going on in Kherson that will affect what is going on in the Donbas to some extent.  Too soon to know how much or in what way yet.

What I'm getting at here is that Ukraine's overall strategy is to bleed Russia white, not necessarily hold territory or take it back, while at the same time preserving forces necessary to keep bleeding Russia white.  I don't see the recent Russian gains towards Slavyansk as being a threat to that strategy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Hope that "ideological supporters of Russia" wasn't aimed at me... I have no love for Russia, I just think that especially in this forum there is sometimes too much emotion and black-and-white thinking applied to what I see as basically a good old-fashioned hegemonical conflict for spheres of influence by two great powers (or rather, one great power and one play-acting as one).

Nah, that was aimed at people that are obviously towing the Russian propaganda lie that NATO is a threat to Russia and therefore that justifies raping and killing children in a non-NATO Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

"Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian troops possess 10 to 15 artillery pieces to every one Ukrainian artillery piece and that Ukrainian forces have almost completely exhausted their artillery ammunition.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-10

That doesn't sound good, does it?

There's been similar statements from Ukrainian sources for a couple of days now.  This isn't too worrying because Ukraine has most of what it needs to replace its 152mm guns with NATO standard 155mm guns.  I can't remember how many shells for those are already in Ukraine, but it's measured in weeks worth of supply, not days, and is still growing.

What this indicates to me is that Ukraine made the right requests at the right time in the right way so that it has been able to transition over to NATO standards with minimal disruption to artillery support.  However, it seems like the availability of NATO 155mm came just in time, which of course isn't optimal.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Geez, I take time off the forum to go to the big city and see a show and y'all put 7+ pages of content.  Took me most of an hour to catch up.

Let's see if I can summarize what I saw:

1.  Aragorn and Huba totally agree on one thing -- UKR needs more heavy weapons.  And no one can seem to figure out WTF Germany is actually doing.  Poland doesn't want to totally deplete its own army, but does have NATO behind it so not as risky as it first seems.  But still not an easy decision for any army/govt.

2.  RU seems to be making some progress in the north of the great salient.  LLFlank provides good maps (thx) and shows that the terrain will probably work against RU going forward.

3.  UKR needs more arty.  more arty.  and more arty.  Need it desperately for defense right now, for offense later.

4.  offensive officially announced by UKR in Kherson region.  My pet theory is that Lyschansk salient's strategic purpose is to tie down and attrit RU forces in a relatively non-strategic sector so UKR can try to make gains in areas that matter more in their big picture.

5. this "NATO threat" bulls-t is out of hand.  Every NATO country was free and not owned by the US.  Every warsaw pact country was a wholly owned slave state of the USSR.  E. Germany had to put up a fence to keep its own people from escaping. Hungary and Czechoslovakia tried to exert their own sovereign free will, and were attacked militarily.   The US didn't forcibly occupy western europe, the soviets did (well, OK, we did occupy culturally, but y'all could choose to not go to McDonalds and Starbucks).  And now RU wants to do it again.  First saying because NATO was a threat and now saying that Putin is the new Genghis Khan (he aint, and those RU forces aint the golden horde) and RU has the right to take anything it wants.  -- but hey, this is all because NATO is scary and threatening.  yeah, right.  RU is currently out of its flipping mind, it's a rabid dog.  

6.  Orville Peck is the greatest musician in america right now, bar none.  What a show!

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by danfrodo
typo

[Huba]

33 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Below is a similar complaint from a source many are skeptical of.

Question:
If you were commanding the Ukrainians would you counter-attack in the Kherson and Kharkiv region in order to pressure the Russians to divert resources from the Donbass salient, or would you take a defensive posture almost everywhere in order to conserve your artillery ammunition until more substantial stocks are delivered from the West?
 

UA General Staff stated 2 days ago that UA has now more 155mm shells than Soviet ones at the start of the conflict. Shortage might concern  some (most?) Soviet calibers, especially heavy MLRS. 

I don't believe that with 20:1 advantage in artillery UA would be defending like they do. Unless most of RU pieces sit idly waiting for ammo.

Edit: Who wants to bet that ROK T-80s and artillery ammo wil lstart to arrive in UA quite soon? 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Huba

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

At this point, I want to ask for a moment of silence (looking at you, Eurosquabblers!) for the heroic defenders of Dovehnke.

And yet another kudos to our own @Combatintman who flagged this innocuous looking (to we lesser mortals) bit of ground as a key barrier to the RA advance from their hard won Izyum bridgehead to Sloviansk.

....On that same note, I'd like to revisit another astute post of CIMan in mid April, where he ID'ed various attack axes for the Russian 'pincer, and then predicted the Russians would end up getting forced onto the hardest, bloodiest paths.

Nailed it, mate.

1.  AA1 promptly bogged down in the open country, and that sector now seems increasingly dominated by UA artillery. No blitzkrieg for you, Popov!

2. AA3 worked ok at first, up until it hit Lyman and then it took 3-4 further weeks of costly fighting to clear that town and the forests behind it, and secure the S-D River line.

3. AA2 hit a dead stop at Dovhenke, as noted and has had to take the hard way around.

4.  AA4? has basically stopped on the start line at Sieverodonetsk.  Ivan is beating his head against a stone wall and getting counterpunched.

Obvs I did - the clue's in the username .  I must say I am surprised that Dovhenke brought things pretty much to a juddering halt.  I seem to recall saying that it would consume at least a BTG but there are plenty of images and videos of the place getting malleted or having been malleted by assorted gunnery which should have got the Russians over the line.  That said, that is also when the shenanigans started on AAs 3 and 4 on my original schematic and manoeuvre stopped on AAs 1 and 2 ... well to be honest not a whole lot happened on AA 1.

I am disappointed that I haven't been able to track this as closely as I was in April but unfortunately the day job has intervened ... it is an interesting summer in Afghanistan.  Regrettably I now only have time to check in and keep up with stuff on this thread.  Your coverage and links are particularly helpful in that regard.

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Obvs I did - the clue's in the username .  I must say I am surprised that Dovhenke brought things pretty much to a juddering halt.  I seem to recall saying that it would consume at least a BTG but there are plenty of images and videos of the place getting malleted or having been malleted by assorted gunnery which should have got the Russians over the line.  That said, that is also when the shenanigans started on AAs 3 and 4 on my original schematic and manoeuvre stopped on AAs 1 and 2 ... well to be honest not a whole lot happened on AA 1.

I am disappointed that I haven't been able to track this as closely as I was in April but unfortunately the day job has intervened ... it is an interesting summer in Afghanistan.  Regrettably I now only have time to check in and keep up with stuff on this thread.  Your coverage and links are particularly helpful in that regard.

You're still in Afghanistan? Doing what, if I may ask?

[Kinophile]

Still trying to get out, probably...

Just wait for pics of him in a hijab....

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Below is a similar complaint from a source many are skeptical of.

Question:
If you were commanding the Ukrainians would you counter-attack in the Kherson and Kharkiv region in order to pressure the Russians to divert resources from the Donbass salient, or would you take a defensive posture almost everywhere in order to conserve your artillery ammunition until more substantial stocks are delivered from the West?
 

A defensive posture. Too early for counter attacks. The autumn will be the right time for that. Hopefully with renewed and more powerful Ukrainian artillery and more experienced and better equipped reservists.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Combatintman]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

You're still in Afghanistan? Doing what, if I may ask?

Working out what's going on is the straight bat answer to your question - seen as how cricket cropped up earlier .  Badakhshan, Baghlan, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Panjshir, Parwan and Takhar are consuming most of my bandwidth right now.  Some interesting dynamics in Badghis, Bamyan, Jawzjan and Sar-e Pul as well which I've also got my eye on.

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Working out what's going on is the straight bat answer to your question - seen as how cricket cropped up earlier .  Badakhshan, Baghlan, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Panjshir, Parwan and Takhar are consuming most of my bandwidth right now.  Some interesting dynamics in Badghis, Bamyan, Jawzjan and Sar-e Pul as well which I've also got my eye on.

[Butschi]

EDIT: Removed my post. While I agree that there is way too much black-and-white painting going on about the Good NATO vs the evil world out there, this really leads nowhere good right now, derails the thread and anyway, at the moment we do need NATO, no matter what.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Butschi

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

EDIT: Removed my post. While I agree that there is way too much black-and-white painting going on about the Good NATO vs the evil world out there, this really leads nowhere good right now, derails the thread and anyway, at the moment we do need NATO, no matter what.

Can't agree more. It's great to be able to see a broad perspective, but there are times when one has be pragmatic and concentrate on what is important. Now is definitely the time for it. 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

I happen to have some first hand experience with that. It would need about two years to create such a line from the decision to start until you have the first shell in your hand. That is IMHO a good averaged best case scenario where will & money are available in abundance. Realistically more likely 6 years.

Yes, Realize that, but it will take that long, plus how ever long we procrastinate on STARTING. The fact that it is a slow process is a reason to get going, not obfuscate for eighteen months. And yes I am advocating the aforementioned parallel lines. Go absolutely all in on automating the process. This is at at LEAST the sixth or eighth time sine WW1 that the Pentagon or its equivalents has said "holy bleep a real war uses a lot of ammo".  Might be time to learn the lesson.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think it's time for the next step by NATO. I think we can afford to act much more aggressive. 

If we sent a couple of heavy brigades and To Ukraine, and started firing cruise missiles like we meant the problem of what to give the Ukrainian army goes away in about a week, and Africa gets to eat....

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Working out what's going on is the straight bat answer to your question - seen as how cricket cropped up earlier .  Badakhshan, Baghlan, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Panjshir, Parwan and Takhar are consuming most of my bandwidth right now.  Some interesting dynamics in Badghis, Bamyan, Jawzjan and Sar-e Pul as well which I've also got my eye on.

Have the Taliban managed to be unpleasant enough to unify the opposition, at least sort of?

[sburke]

You know you learn something new every day.  I never realized the US had any real interests in Serbia much less a strategic interest to intervene and grab.. umm resources?  However now I know and I'll be combing through news articles and analytic papers to make sure I understand the US colonization of Serbia and our exploitation of their vast mineral resources!

[Combatintman]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Have the Taliban managed to be unpleasant enough to unify the opposition, at least sort of?

Unity isn't really an Afghan thing but unpleasantness has been happening in many of the areas I mentioned and the pace has picked up around Baghlan and Panjshir in particular.  New groups are popping up to the tune of about one a fortnight now - but many don't seem to be doing much.  Some of the shenanigans are Talibs vs Talibs - there was a reasonable bust up in Taluqan today between two factions so plenty of interesting dynamics here.

[Grigb]

12 hours ago, Machor said:

@LongLeftFlankUnfortunately, I'm not as optimistic as you are: the moan that you can hear when they jerk away the wounded Ukrainian soldier sounds pretty genuine.

Everything else including tiny details (perfect framing; rush to check dead and wounded as if there is no danger of dying UKR soldier pulling pin of grenade on them) is not.  

12 hours ago, Machor said:

@LongLeftFlank

And, since they were already discussing executing him on the video, they may have just tortured him for intel and executed later.

There was no real discussion. One said **** him and other, commander, immediately rejected it without any thinking or hesitation as if he is hero of cheap military TV series - good guys do not do that!

13 hours ago, Machor said:

@LongLeftFlank

I have seen plenty of confirmed combat footage taken by Russian soldiers both in this war and previously that had little or no swearing. It cannot be the sole criterion for authenticity.

Let me quote my self: Not only their voice acting skill is poor". Voice acting is NOT swearing. Lack of swearing is on top of extremely fake intonations and dialogs.

Also I need to point to their use of single swearing word - conveniently it was used exactly where would make the most dramatic effect for the audience from the point of view of a script writer.

13 hours ago, Machor said:

@LongLeftFlank

Killing two Ukrainian soldiers is hardly a propaganda blow in the scale of this war.

Currently there is an internal but informal scandal in RU army (akin to big Torpedo Scandal) that they lack drones and bad at integrating them compared to UKR army. The first purpose is to counter that narrative - it implies they have enough drones to use them at the squad level and drones are successfully integrated. 

13 hours ago, Machor said:

@LongLeftFlank

And if the purpose was to show Russian soldiers taking prisoners, they undid that by suggesting to execute the prisoner on record.

No, they did a very cunning propaganda trick.

After AzovStal surrender RU nationalists feel betrayed. They expected brutal executions. Instead, they got reports that at least some Evil Nazis were put to hospitals (at least initially indeed they were). RU nationalists blame traitorous pussy Army for the lack of brutal resolve. 

So, the second purpose is to show that RU solders feel the need to brutally kill Evil Nazis, but they are commanded by cool headed commanders who make sure Russian hands stay clean. Not a bad propaganda trick, Ivan, I will give you that!

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Unity isn't really an Afghan thing but unpleasantness has been happening in many of the areas I mentioned and the pace has picked up around Baghlan and Panjshir in particular.  New groups are popping up to the tune of about one a fortnight now - but many don't seem to be doing much.  Some of the shenanigans are Talibs vs Talibs - there was a reasonable bust up in Taluqan today between two factions so plenty of interesting dynamics here.

So basically warlord 'state'.  lovely. 

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So basically warlord 'state'.  lovely. 

well it is Afghanistan and that does seem to generally be the normal state of affairs unfortunately

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Ts4EVER said:

Hope that "ideological supporters of Russia" wasn't aimed at me... I have no love for Russia, I just think that especially in this forum there is sometimes too much emotion and black-and-white thinking applied to what I see as basically a good old-fashioned hegemonical conflict for spheres of influence by two great powers (or rather, one great power and one play-acting as one).

Maybe I'm a victim living in a "NATO information bubble" as an earlier poster put it but this war does seem really black and white from where I am sitting.

You have a much larger country lead by a former KGB dictator attacking a smaller country and killing thousands because he wants to take more land for himself. Said dictator is not happy that countries that used to "happily" live under Moscow's rule are now voluntarily joining Western organizations like NATO and the EU.

Who is in the right and who is in the wrong seems rather clear here.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

Now finally Sumlenny posted something fresh and worth of reading.

Best is Russian Specnaz boarding HMS Victory. Or this one:  "Novorossiya pilot" awakes in a body of Josef Stalin's son Vassily, a war pilot, and wins the war, revealing a Western agent Khrushchov, saving Stalinism".

It's funny, but if you analyze society through its popculture it is really scarry what it can do to collective mentality. Movies like "Stalingrad", "Orda", "1612" were all so bloody, dumb, naive and sadistic that to Western viewers looked like American Pulp Fiction genre. But in retrospect, they were mainstream that builded this damn mythos.

Not to do offtopic- it illustrates that state of collective Russian psyche is one of the reasons why this war may be longer and bloodier than some people in the West suggest, drawing on military situation alone.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

On 6/10/2022 at 9:59 AM, Kinophile said:

BTW, who'd be interested in a GoFundMe to get @Haiduka new laptop?

Not kidding.

I don't think there's anyone who's contributed more to our understanding of the war.

PM me to confirm interest.

Ahah, thanks, but this is superflous ) And we have PC and laptop. I don't like to work on latter, PC forever )

I will be more glad if you donate to some of UKR funds, for example for Aerorozvidka for R-18 drone-bombers producing in order to you can see more vidoes of silent bomb strikes in the night:  https://www.facebook.com/aerorozvidka/posts/4854380451352064

Aerorozvidka also offers a draw of stamps with Moskva cruiser for each donation of 100 UAH and more

Edited June 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Everything else including tiny details (perfect framing; rush to check dead and wounded as if there is no danger of dying UKR soldier pulling pin of grenade on them) is not.  

There was no real discussion. One said **** him and other, commander, immediately rejected it without any thinking or hesitation as if he is hero of cheap military TV series - good guys do not do that!

Let me quote my self: Not only their voice acting skill is poor". Voice acting is NOT swearing. Lack of swearing is on top of extremely fake intonations and dialogs.

Also I need to point to their use of single swearing word - conveniently it was used exactly where would make the most dramatic effect for the audience from the point of view of a script writer.

Currently there is an internal but informal scandal in RU army (akin to big Torpedo Scandal) that they lack drones and bad at integrating them compared to UKR army. The first purpose is to counter that narrative - it implies they have enough drones to use them at the squad level and drones are successfully integrated. 

No, they did a very cunning propaganda trick.

After AzovStal surrender RU nationalists feel betrayed. They expected brutal executions. Instead, they got reports that at least some Evil Nazis were put to hospitals (at least initially indeed they were). RU nationalists blame traitorous pussy Army for the lack of brutal resolve. 

So, the second purpose is to show that RU solders feel the need to brutally kill Evil Nazis, but they are commanded by cool headed commanders who make sure Russian hands stay clean. Not a bad propaganda trick, Ivan, I will give you that!

Can't seem to find this.