How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

NATO is the reason the EU doesn't have a standing army. I think it will change in the future. NATO is also the reason the US doesn't have a West European style of a social safety net. But back to support the Ukraine we all can't afford a Russian victory. 

I think it's time for the next step by NATO. I think we can afford to act much more aggressive. 

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

As @Aragorn2002 said, it also doesn't sound too unrealistic. You rightly criticised Scholz more than once but the Polish government also didn't play entirely fair during the last months. Whatever, as I said above, we all have ulterior motives, that's a (sad) fact of life. Maybe we should stop bickering about it, in the long run only the populists and Putin profit from that.

Fair enough, it might have been a an idea at some point, but it obviously wasn't an important consideration, as we went to supply UA with 1/3 of all our tanks anyway, without any backfill, and without much hesitation. @Aragorn2002 looking for ulterior motives in fact that we don't want to part with another 1/3 of our tank fleet the same way is a misjudgement at least. 

[panzermartin]

I can't believe we are bullying Poland, the country that has supported the most and beyond its abilities the Ukrainians so far both in military and humanitarian aid. 

So, what wealthy Netherlands has done so far for Ukraine? Only piece I could find is " limited number of howitzers"

J/k of course but let's put the pressure on the bigger players. 

On a serious note, does really the Dutch army has only 18 MBTs as Wikipedia implies ? 

 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

On a serious note, does really the Dutch army has only 18 MBTs as Wikipedia implies ? 

I understand the Dutch army is integrated with the German army 

[Aragorn2002]

28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I can't believe we are bullying Poland, the country that has supported the most and beyond its abilities the Ukrainians so far both in military and humanitarian aid. 

So, what wealthy Netherlands has done so far for Ukraine? Only piece I could find is " limited number of howitzers"

J/k of course but let's put the pressure on the bigger players. 

On a serious note, does really the Dutch army has only 18 MBTs as Wikipedia implies ? 

 

The Netherlands is doing it's part as you can read in the link, we just don't make as much noise about it as some other countries. 

Selling our tanks is unforgiveable and should have political consequences to my opinion, but can be remedied, especially via our close cooperation with the Bundeswehr. The dutch have always done their duty within NATO, that won't change. As in most NATO countries massive investments are underway.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/beyond-call-dutch-arms-deliveries-to.html?m=1

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I understand the Dutch army is integrated with the German army 

That's correct. Not completely of course and only the land forces, but the cooperation with the Bundeswehr is in full swing.  

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[panzermartin]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/beyond-call-dutch-arms-deliveries-to.html?m=1

Thanks, seems the Dutch aid didn't get that much media attention. 

[chuckdyke]

We live in interesting times.

Putin’s bodyguards ‘collect his excrement on trips abroad and take it back to Russia with them’ (msn.com)

[Aragorn2002]

26 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Thanks, seems the Dutch aid didn't get that much media attention. 

Most important is Ukraine can fight on and kick Putin and his criminals out again. Apart from that I think the war has been a much needed and valuable wake up call for all our countries. We are allies and need each other more than ever. Poles, Greeks, Germans, Dutchies and all the others. If necessary we go to war together. We can't expect Washington to hold our hand forever and together we can build armed forces that will scare the hell out of every dictator.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Armorgunner]

****ing turkey Turkey blocking Swedish, and Finland NATO application 

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

****ing turkey Turkey blocking Swedish, and Finland NATO application 

NATO won't allow that. The bastard just want to show he's a mighty Ottoman and is trying to get some petty cash out of it. Believe me when I say he will pay a high price for his behavior when all of this is over. NATO will find a way around his veto. Sweden and Finland are already NATO countries and there's nothing the great sultan can do about that.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

NATO won't allow it. The bastard just want to show he's a mighty Ottoman and is trying to get some petty cash out of it. Believe me when I say he will pay a high cost for his behavior when all of this is over.

Yea but they have a veto. All members must accept every new member. If a single one, like turkey Turkey, don´t, its a dead end!

[panzermartin]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Most important is Ukraine can fight on and kick Putin and his criminals out again. Apart from that I think the war has been a much needed and valuable wake up call for all our countries. We are allies and need each other more than ever. Poles, Greeks, Germans, Dutchies and all the others. If necessary we go to war together. 

Europe has been an island of normality and peace for decades. There are flaws but I think it does so many things better, especially welfare, healthcare, protection of smaller family business, culture, strict environmental rules etc... We are willing to fight for this but I hope this war won't change things for the worse. 

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Yea but they have a veto. All members must accept every new member. If a single one, like turkey Turkey, don´t, its a dead end!

NATO wants you in. If necessary the rules for membership will be changed. And officially in or out NATO will defend Swedish and Finnish territory.

Another discussion is whether Turkey should remain a NATO member after the war in Ukraine. Personally I think not. On the other hand, Erdogan days could very well be counted, so let's not panic.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Europe has been an island of normality and peace for decades. There are flaws but I think it does so many things better, especially welfare, healthcare, protection of smaller family business, culture, strict environmental rules etc... We are willing to fight for this but I hope this war won't change things for the worse. 

We will see. This war could have the same impact as world war 2 in terms of changing our view of the world around us.

My fear at the present moment is that we forget Ukraine is fighting for it's existence and needs our utmost help.

Nothing else matters. 

[poesel]

When Ukraine enters NATO the military value of Turkey will be much lower.  Erdogan knows this so he plays his cards as long as he still has them. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

When Ukraine enters NATO the military value of Turkey will be much lower.  Erdogan knows this so he plays his cards as long as he still has them. 

Great minds think alike. Exactly what I was thinking.

He wasn't popular to begin with and instead of using the war to improve that, he choses to prove he is completely unacceptable to lead Turkey.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

12 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yup, after 1.5 months of gnawing at the outer crust and floundering in the fields south of Izium, it appears the RA 'north pincer' is at last reaching the nortern approaches to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk logistical hub. They are putting some weight into it, although Girkin made no mention.

If those cities fall, Donbas definitely becomes untenable. But there's still a long way for them to go.

 

As noted, that northern attack towards Sloviansk seems to have some weight behind it. And it looks like they've finally taken Dovhenke for good, after flanking it through 'Sherwood Forest'.

But the terrain ahead canalises the attacker very badly indeed.

Edited June 11, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

Note the date . Ukrainians are master trollers.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[panzermartin]

9 hours ago, Machor said:

You are reiterating my point: The problem isn't with NATO and Turkey; it's with Erdoğan and Islamism.

Ever since Erdoğan was elected out of obscurity to become the mayor of Istanbul with the promise of converting the Hagia Sophia into a mosque [competing votes were split between two centre-right and two centre-left parties that squabbled among each other] and stated on record: "Democracy is like a tram. You get on where you need to, and you get off where you need to," it was obvious that him and the Islamists had to be nipped in the bud. Instead, both within Turkey and internationally, various factions thought they could draw him to their side, until he became all-powerful. When I stated that Erdoğan was bad news at a leading US university in 2008, I was called an 'elitist' and accused of opposing 'democratization'. Everyone was talking about 'Liberal Islam', and telling me Erdoğan's Islamists were just an Islamic counterpart to Europe's Christian Democrats. If we have made any progress at all, I hope that discourse has now died, and there will be zero tolerance should Islamism rear its ugly head anywhere else. Some Russian (Solzhenitsyn?) said "Russia was crucified on the cross to show the world the evil of Communism;" Turkey was impaled on the stake to show the world the evil of Islamism.

RE: Tensions in the Aegean

The danger is that Erdoğan has every reason to start a phony war, and then use it as an excuse to declare martial law and cancel elections. He does not even need the Turkish military to engineer a provocation since, like a certain someone, he now has his own military organization, who swear allegiance personally to him.

Now, facing Erdoğan's machinations, we have the Greek military who, along with a certain segment of Greece's ruling elite that they are close with, would also love to see Erdoğan start a phony war with Greece. When Erdoğan tried to get cozy with Russia, they responded by killing 37 Turkish soldiers; when he then tried to switch to China, they demanded Turkey extradite all Uyghurs. Therefore, should Turkey lose its ties with the West as well, it would end up more isolated than North Korea. With this reasoning, even if the Greek military does not engineer the first provocation, it would gladly reply to any provocation by Erdoğan with an escalatory provocation, and Erdoğan knows this as well. Thus, you have two actors who would both benefit from a phony war, but these actors aren't nation-states.

Thanks for the insight and I get your points. I sincerely hope for better days for Turkey. I wouldn't want to see them cornered or collapsing, I won't take any joy in that, in fact I find it dangerous. Regardless of the islamist delirium, do you think Turkey is destined to expand westwards as it always pursued. I almost understand the need of Turkey for more access to the sea and in a perfect world where everyone would behave fair, we could probably share the energy wealth of the aegean. That would be beneficial for both, while excluding 3rd parties. But I'm not sure Turkey will stop there if it had the might and the way to go unpunished. 

So far we are avoiding escalation like the plague, we don't even intercept UAV that loiter over the islands. I sincerely hope there are no thoughts of provoking Turkey for short sighted political gains. That would be silly on our part as we bet a lot on international sympathy and support. 

[Armorgunner]

30 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

NATO wants you in. If necessary the rules for membership will be changed. And officially in or out NATO will defend Swedish and Finnish territory.

Another discussion is whether Turkey should remain a NATO member after the war in Ukraine. Personally I think not. On the other hand, Erdogan days could very well be counted, so let's not panic.

turkey Turkey is an important member of NATO. It has the second largest army in NATO, it controles the bosporous. Then if it´s a reliably member to count on? In a conflict with Nazirussia? Thats another question for Biden, and Johnson to look at?

[sburke]

wake up to 3 more pages on this thread almost all of which I could ignore as it is all irrelevant.  All caught up and it is only 6:30 am!  @LongLeftFlankthanks for bringing this back to topic. 

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

wake up to 3 more pages on this thread almost all of which I could ignore as it is all irrelevant.  All caught up and it is only 6:30 am!  @LongLeftFlankthanks for bringing this back to topic. 

No it´s not 6:30 am! It´s 3:40 pm  And sorry for me who continued with off topic!

Edited June 11, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Billy Ringo]

Subtle reminder: Turkey is and has been a valued and important member of NATO.  Militarily and strategically located.

Erdogan--not so much. 

But Turkey will be around a LOT longer than Erdogan.  Let's think long term.

[CHEqTRO]