How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, acrashb said:

Fair enough.  When I see things in the National Post I don't always check source, as NP is a real paper with fact checking.  Well, we can hope

As we talk RUMINT:

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

As we talk RUMINT:

 

Now THAT is a RUMINT for the ages! 

[acrashb]

30 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Colonial powers didn't set those countries free because they matured but because there were bloody unrests and weren't strong enough anymore to handle them

On a more serious-than-Monty-Python note, I raise the data point of Canada. https://www.britannica.com/event/Canada-Act No-one in Canada feels oppressed by the British.  Well, maybe some people in Quebec, but that was over in 1763 and most other colonial / imperialist powers would not have accepted two founding nations, but rather would have tried to exterminate or run-off their less-preferred nation.

As much as I dislike the largely-useless occupation of arguing politics on the internet, your take on the British Empire, while not without some reality, is overall not well grounded.  As far as I am concerned it has left behind the most positive legacy of any imperial era and power, extending beyond cricket into more substantial things.  Throw out the bathwater, not the baby.

Having said that, I'll go back to scouring the web for rumours of Putin's health status

 

[Centurian52]

On 6/8/2022 at 9:45 AM, sburke said:

wonder if this ship will ever sail again.

Russia's long-struggling aircraft carrier has its return to action delayed — again (msn.com)

The return to service of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will be delayed another year. Defects in work being done on the ship mean it won't be delivered until 2024, according to state media.
 

Why do I get the feeling that it might take a bit longer?

edit: Also, I'm only two days behind now! Y'all post fast, but I'm definitely gaining on this thread

Edited June 10, 2022 by Centurian52

[dan/california]

Some ground level pics from Steves favorite moment.

 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Cederic said:

Incidentally the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not just 'Britain', is still Great (ask the Ukrainians) and did not occupy and loot countries at will. We introduced terribly civilised cultural practices like cricket to them, helped them exploit and profit from their natural resources then set them free as independent nations capable of making their way in the modern world. We're nice like that. (The sods have responded by continually beating us at cricket.)

 

That's a take. I doubt if you asked the Irish if they enjoyed the famines, the answer would be positive. India, I'm sure their famines and deindustrialization aren't taken as a positive. I could go on, but that's some silly stuff, imperial conquest is good, jeez.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

That's a take. I doubt if you asked the Irish if they enjoyed the famines, the answer would be positive. India, I'm sure their famines and deindustrialization aren't taken as a positive. I could go on, but that's some silly stuff, imperial conquest is good, jeez.

don't even start on the note that the British Empire was fueled by an Opium trade forced down China's throat with military force.  The British Empire makes El Chapo a small time street coroner thug.  All of which has nothing to do with Ukraine.

How about more pics of those T 62s showing up?

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 I doubt if you asked the Irish if they enjoyed the famines, the answer would be positive. 

Yah it wasn't exactly 6 Flags with all day pass...

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting.  Pressure multiple points and see what breaks.  Much less risk since not massing forces.  Hopefully some sectors will break.  From the maps we see a little UKR movement, but not much, at least so far from what we know.  I sure hope there's lots of low quality RU troops on that front.

I wonder if there's any kind of highly mobile armored exploitation forces waiting behind the front for an opportunity.

Yep, that is one of great questions of this war- how many soldiers Ukraine has behind the lines.

@Haiduk if I remember wrote about something like several brigades maximum in training+ those rotating the front and covering the border. I also heard from several military experts about entire Reserve Corps being prepared behind Dnieper. But it is hard to believe frankly, given how many problems with rotation they had in Doneck salient. The piecemeal character of Ukrianian advance in Kherson axis may be due to this rather than some deeper military goal.

 

On lighter note, interesting piece about hygiene of top politicians. It seems Putin obsession with keeping secret is not something that peculiar to him only:

 

 

[DesertFox]

Love that humour:

 

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Love that humour:

 

 

LOL  Putin getting owned again.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Love that humour:

 

 

Oh this is gonna be good.  Let's get Mongolia involved....

[Vanir Ausf B]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Quote

Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day. “We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells,”

That's 150,000-180,000 rounds per month. I wonder how many 155mm shells NATO has and can spare?

[fireship4]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So the Nazi reference of Wagner (actually it was his sister who was really the hardcore antisemite)...

Perhaps you are thinking of Nietzsche's sister, who according to popular wisdom (apparently via translators and editors of his works in the 1950s) made his work more amenable to nazi ideology - though this is disputed.

 

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Both metric and imperial systems work and have lots of success to attest to this.  Except that one is really f--ing stupid and the other is based on the number of fingers you have as well as being based on our actual base10 number system.  While the other is based on things 12, 16, 60, 5280, and other nonsense.  Two particularly stupid things that unfortunately are too baked in to ever change is our clocks (60 seconds, 60 minutes, 24 hours??) and degrees (360??  wtf?).  arbitrary, hard to work with numbers.  We are so used to these that we don't realize just how stupid these are.  If they were all some kind of base10 it would all be 10x easier to work with.

Those 'arbitrary' numbers are in many cases much easier to divide into common fractions.  What is quater past the hour on a decimal clock?

Standard weights which defined both systems had to be taken out and compared with a local copy, and these changed over time.  Metric has some nice constants built into it, such as 1kg of water taking up 1 litre of volume, but I would guess the problem might have been more about easy convertibility, the simplicity of base 10 being used across the whole system without regard to application, and which system was ascendant at the time.

More recently metric standards were converted to being defined by physical constants, like the distance it takes light to travel in a certain time, and I believe imperial standards are defined as multiples of metric standards.

Advocates exist for conversion to base 12 numbering systems (dozenal or something).

Edited June 10, 2022 by fireship4

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

That's 150,000-180,000 rounds per month. I wonder how many 155mm shells NATO has and can spare?

Keep in mind this includes also Soviet calibers, as far as I can tell at least. Soon though it will be up to NATO to supply the ammunition for the slugfest. I recall Canada was trying to buy 100K rounds from ROK, there was no info if they succeeded. It is known that France supplied ammunition to go with the CAESARs too.  I imagine that ammunition factories in NATO countries are going full steam at the moment.

More Girkin:

And also, here's a briefing from Elysee - kept in totally different tone than what most media was presenting up to this point. More of this please, that's the EU leadership that CEE could use:

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh this is gonna be good.  Let's get Mongolia involved....

Or possibly the Koreans...

[c3k]

5 hours ago, hcrof said:

This is actually quite a hard problem to solve atm:

They are too small to hit with unguided fire

They don't have a big enough IR signature for a stinger type missile

If you tune your radar to be able to spot them you will be overwhelmed by false positives from birds and ground clutter

It looks like missiles like starstreak are designed with drones in mind, which is why they have a complicated semi-manual aiming system, and AAA or even "mad minute" small arms fire can just about manage, but they are far from reliable and it's easy enough to just send another drone.

I can see a lot more light AAA and starstreak type missiles in the near future as a counter, or even anti-drone drones!

Edit: and lasers - everyone is going for lasers like crazy to shoot down drones (among other things) but they aren't quite there yet

All good points, but you missed the first two:

1. Should the forces in question be concerned...at that time...if there is a drone monitoring them?  Meaning, what forces, where, and when, should be in a drone-countermeasures posture?

2. Once that force is determined to be in an anti-drone posture, you've got to FIND the drone, if any.

Only then will the rest of the points you've made come into play.

Steps 1 and 2 are non-trivial.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And if you get lucky and do see them you need to look like an Afghan wedding firing like a lunatic to put enough dumb lead in the air to hit the thing, which gives up your position entirely.

While your posts are always thought provoking and informative, I have to admit to a guilty pleasure looking for little tidbits like this.  You haven't mentioned the goat in a while.

[c3k]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good info, thanks.

This is getting in @The_Capt's wheelhouse, but seems to me there's a serious mismatch at tactical level here today.

In the Sixties, you had Ryan Firebees and by the 70s variants on ALCMs, then stealth tech and Reapers, Predators, etc. for the GWOT. All very strategic level assets, crazy expensive and accordingly rare.

But you're saying here that a 250 USD Chinese drone that could be issued to and used by any rando rifle squad still needs a 3 million(?) missile or AAA system deployed to the front by a specialised formation to neutralise it!  Wow.  I mean, not saying you're wrong, but wow.

Bolded part. That's the question and that's why the laser systems are so attractive. Ignore the initial outlay. (Because the system is either fielded or it isn't.) What then is the per-shot cost? And, what is it's capability?

If it can shoot down anything from a small quadcopter to Predator drone to a mortar shell...and do it endlessly (given electrical generation capability), then, yeah, the cost per engagement is just pennies.

Ditto the electronic jammers that cause drones to land where they are.

Using directed energy systems (lasers, focused electromagnetic waves) is the future of counter-drone units.

[c3k]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Here's a proposal for system based on  12,7 mm rotary cannon. Thermal camera coupled with radar should probably eliminate  most false positives. Modular platform should fit on a pickup truck. Prototype was tested during air-defence drills that are taking place on the Baltic shore right now.

 

(Last of my drone comments, I promise.     )

Anything that uses rotary 12.7mm  has my vote.      Think of the opportunities to use it against non-aerial targets. 

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, c3k said:

(Last of my drone comments, I promise.     )

Anything that uses rotary 12.7mm  has my vote.      Think of the opportunities to use it against non-aerial targets. 

Shrink it to 7.62 or develop rapid-firing revolver or chain powered 12,7 gun and put it on a tank instead of commanders weapon station  Getting it to work as a CIWS against missiles is probably asking too much, but drones ( and crunchies! ) are toast. Radars on tanks have to finally appear anyway as part of active protection systems, might as well extend it's function to countering drones.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, Huba said:

Shrink it to 7.62 and put on a tank instead of commanders weapon station  Getting it to work as a CIWS against missiles is probably asking too much, but drones ( and crunchies! ) are toast. Radars on tanks have to finally appear anyway as part of active protection systems, might as well extend it's function to countering drones.

The_Capt  said, many hundreds of pages ago, that top tier land warfare was becoming much more like naval warfare. With endless layers of countermeasures, and counter counter measures deployed to protect the actual ships. The question in both cases is CAN you protect the actual ships/tanks at a cost anybody can afford.

A related question is do we want to put all of this stuff, and mental bandwidth required to operate it, on the heads of every tank crew. It might make a lot more sense to bite the bullet and make one tank out of four a countermeasures platform. My spitball on that would be a SERIOUS phased array radar, laser system, ~20-35 mm rotary cannon with smart shells, and a couple of whatever comes after the stinger. The goal would be for this unit to deal with threats as far out as possible. Lase drones the the second they clear the tree line, and or horizon, shoot down ATGMs when they are hundreds of meters out, blast out various kinds of ECM that will fry an egg a mile away, and let the rest of the unit do their already hard jobs. Just to be clear I think this needs to be on a survivable tracked chassis, Maybe even a modified Abrams hull. I am assuming you can hook that turbine up to one heck of a generator if you set your mind to it. For triple points you could let the ECM unit control RWS on other vehicles when there were high priority threats incoming.

If the bad guys are not playing at the same level, well a rotary cannon is never a bad thing to have.

Edited June 10, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The_Capt  said, many hundreds of pages ago, that top tier land warfare was becoming much more like naval warfare. With endless layers of countermeasures, and counter counter measures deployed to protect the actual ships. The question in both cases is CAN you protect the actual ships/tanks at a cost anybody can afford.

A related question is do we want to put all of this stuff, and mental bandwidth required to operate it, on the heads of every tank crew. It might make a lot more sense to bite the bullet and make one tank out of four a countermeasures platform. My spitball on that would be a SERIOUS phased array radar, laser system, ~20-35 mm rotary cannon with smart shells, and a couple of whatever comes after the stinger. The goal would be for this unit to deal with threats as far out as possible. Lase drones the the second they clear the tree line, and or horizon, shoot down ATGMs when they are hundreds of meters out, blast out various kinds of ECM that will fry an egg a mile away, and let the rest of the unit do their already hard jobs. Just to be clear I think this needs to be on a survivable tracked chassis, Maybe even a modified Abrams hull. I am assuming you can hook that turbine up to one heck of a generator if you set your mind to it. For triple points you could let the ECM unit control RWS on other vehicles when there were high priority threats incoming.

If the bad guys are not playing at the same level, well a rotary cannon is never a bad thing to have.

My idea was mostly of a tongue-in-cheek type, but if we were to treat it seriously, it doesn't necessarily go against yours. If we assume that every AFV was is to be equipped with a hard-kill active protection system in the future, it makes perfect sense to hook the sensor allotment that comes with it to other weapons onboard. AFAIK system like Trophy detect targets from few hundred meters or more, merging this capability with RWS sporting machine gun (that in turn usually has a thermal sight and perhaps a LRF) would allow to engage low tier drones I think. Or guys popping up to take a shot with RPG... 

It would be something along the lines of point/ short-range defense capability of lesser surface combatants. Add a vehicle you described  to a platoon/ company for area defense if possible.

Edit: oh, and it again touches the subject of automation. With a fusion of radar/ IIR / acoustic sensor, I imagine RWS on a tank engaging enemy infantry in the moment they appear in the line of sight in the automatic mode - quite possible technically, yet scary as hell. IFF transponder for every grunt?

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[sross112]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Weirdly in this war it looks like defensive warfare is gaining primacy - which isn't supposed to be what happens, or maybe we just missed the fact that ISR and not Strike was going to be the determining factor.

The more I think about the different questions in this thread about the death of the tank, death of maneuver or the ascendance of defense I think it all comes back to ISR. Before hostilities ever kicked off it was pretty obvious that Ukraine had the advantage with 5 eyes and multiple large western intelligence agencies backing it. They knew exactly what the RA had and where. Then after it kicked off the crowd sourced intelligence and recon was definitely in the UA's favor. All this allowed the UA to make a lot of good decisions on the placement and use of their assets and gave them a distinct edge over the invaders. 

I think the jury may still be out but if and when the UA kicks off an offensive we should have a much better idea on the changes to maneuver and defense on a contemporary battlefield. Right now I'm betting that the ISR advantage leads to an advantage in whatever operation is being conducted; defense or offense. 

It could almost be classified like control of the skies with deficiency, parity, superiority and supremacy. If you had ISR supremacy your chances of being able to successfully maneuver on the enemy are pretty good as you can see almost everything and they are practically blind. If you are operating in parity or deficiency your ability to maneuver undetected and unchecked is next to nil. Is that what we have seen in Ukraine and a big reason why there haven't been meaningful breakthroughs in the Donbas? I know there are a lot of compounding reasons holding back the RA at this point but I think ISR deficiency is near the top of their list.

On another note, Ukraine is LIT UP on FIRMS today:

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@36.3,48.2,8z

Edited June 10, 2022 by sross112

[Aragorn2002]

12 hours ago, kraze said:

And you don't exactly see EU countries reinforcing Baltic borders much. Only one country does that and it's the one overseas.

Not to mention that most European countries refuse to do that "2% minimum of GDP" thing (actually only UK and Poland do it). And it's possible that certain countries would rather happily trade with the enemy as it steals territory from their allies.

And yet those same European countries supply your country with arms deliveries worth hundreds of millions, risk their economies and help millions of Ukrainian refugees. I truly hope Zelensky will show more gratitude and will find a better tone to speak to and about Europe than you do. Personally I'm rather tired of your insults. We don't owe you anything, so just be a little more grateful.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002