How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

On the UKR side of the artillery war the question of maintenence has come up. Today Kos from DailyKos, ex-arty guy, says learning to shoot gun systems is much, much easier than learning to maintain them.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK:  link is direct to the arty article

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/8/2102883/-Ukraine-update-Switching-to-NATO-weapons-isn-t-as-simple-as-people-think-it-is

I wonder what solutions are possible for this?  sounds like they are shipping some systems back to Poland for repair.  I guess not realistic to put NATO arty repair teams on UKR soil.  So maybe UKR can hire retired NCOs & maintenence techs as contractors w money provided by NATO? 

Artillery superiority seems to be the game changer going forward.

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is one of theese problems - D-20 with torn barrel after several shots.

So that happened just from firing it and not because it was damaged at some point by CB fire?

That can't have been fun to be around and must do wonders for their confidence in the equipment they're being given out of mothballs.

[womble]

9 hours ago, JonS said:

probably not ... BUT ... while we're here ...

Fortunately, the charging one has been solved now that we've all standardized on mini-USB. Or is it micro-USB? ****.

USB-C, obvs...

[facepalm]

I'd post a smiley, but I really can't find the funny side...

[A Canadian Cat]

LOL I was all queued up to post a link to that cartoon too.

4 minutes ago, womble said:

USB-C, obvs...

[facepalm]

I'd post a smiley, but I really can't find the funny side...

It is awesome how that cartoon is timeless and the hover text is an added extra jab that gets funnier as we move further and further away from micro USB connectors.

[Taranis]

40 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So that happened just from firing it and not because it was damaged at some point by CB fire?

That can't have been fun to be around and must do wonders for their confidence in the equipment they're being given out of mothballs.

You can see that the barrel forms a flower whose petals go outwards. It's clearly an explosion inside the barrele.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Taranis

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So that happened just from firing it and not because it was damaged at some point by CB fire?

Looks to be an internal detonation, not externally caused.  This could be from bad ammo or from some defect in the barrel or maybe even a combo.
 

Something else not talked about much is what happens to explosives when they have been sitting around for a very long time and/or stored in problematic climatic conditions (warm and humid ain't good!).  I've seen this mentioned a little here or there, but I'm sure there's more problems with old stocks of ammo than we've heard about.

I personally have a crate of 1940s Turkish 8mm ammo that is part of a notorious import of "cheap" ammo many years ago.  The necks on some of the casings are physically cracked to the point where the bullet is either loose or falls out.  It's totally random, with some 5 round clips being without visual defect and another 5 round clip in the same bandolier having 3 or 4 with cracked necks.

So you might think, "OK, that sucks but all you have to do is give a wiggle to each round and discard the loose ones.  Problem solved".  No   The particular powder the Turks used wasn't as high quality as the German mix, and over time it has become less stable.  In this case it burns too fast and hot which increases overpressure during the initial combustion.  This is less of a problem for a Mauser 98k with its heavy closed bolt, much more of a problem for a MG34/42 or other automatic weapon where bolts are delicately engineered for specific firing characteristics.  I've seen such ammo break a stock of a Mauser, which is bad, but not nearly as bad as blowing out the side of a $100,000 "transferable" MG42 (and potentially killing someone too).

Point here is that as Russia scrapes deeper and deeper into its reserve stocks of ammo, there's likely to be an increase in equipment damage and perhaps personnel injuries.

30 minutes ago, chrisl said:

That can't have been fun to be around and must do wonders for their confidence in the equipment they're being given out of mothballs.

Yeah, fun is not the likely word those guys would have chosen.  Interesting or perhaps exciting, but not fun

Steve

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I personally have a crate of 1940s Turkish 8mm ammo that is part of a notorious import of "cheap" ammo many years ago.  The necks on some of the casings are physically cracked to the point where the bullet is either loose or falls out.  It's totally random, with some 5 round clips being without visual defect and another 5 round clip in the same bandolier having 3 or 4 with cracked necks.

 

Steve

Okay I'll bite..... why?

second question.  Does Mrs Grammont know?

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

On the UKR side of the artillery war the question of maintenence has come up. Today Kos from DailyKos, ex-arty guy, says learning to shoot gun systems is much, much easier than learning to maintain them.

This is pretty much true for any complex system out there.  Think of how easy it is to learn how to drive compared to maintaining the vehicle being driven.  Even fairly simple things have this sort of dynamic.  I just hand an experience with a keypad door system.  Easy to show someone how to use it and even program it, but when it stopped opening after a successful code entry... then what?  Most people would have chucked it and bought another $200 door lock.  Not me   I have the skills to fix such things, so I tore into it and found the problem.  Nothing I could fix!  However, it was under warrantee so they sent me a replacement part.  Interestingly enough, it was designed very differently than the one that failed.  Gee, wonder why?

Anyhoo, the point here is that yes, training Ukrainians how to fire a Caesar is easier than training them how to maintain it.  Especially when spare parts are not lying around.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

Okay I'll bite..... why?

second question.  Does Mrs Grammont know?

Answer to first question... I have a beautiful Yugo Mauser 98k and was going to have a MG-42 (longer story with that). 20 years ago it was easy to find 8mm from various countries that had definitively switched away from 8mm weapons even for reserves.

Answer to second question... the Missus knows the ammo exists and that it isn't safe to use.  The Missues doesn't need to know that I've used some of it   Not recently, though.  I looked at the ammo a few months ago and it has gone further down hill since I last popped off some rounds, so me thinks no more shooting of the Mauser until I find some newer ammo.  Which might be a long time.

Steve

[kraze]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

wonder if this ship will ever sail again.

Russia's long-struggling aircraft carrier has its return to action delayed — again (msn.com)

The return to service of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will be delayed another year. Defects in work being done on the ship mean it won't be delivered until 2024, according to state media.
 

Just like all other things stolen by them - "Kuznetsov" ends up facing the same gloomy fate.

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

Someone in the intelligence blob with an exaggerated sense of their own importance has found the NYT reporter who might as well be on the Russian payroll. Bleeping irritating

[chrisl]

35 minutes ago, Taranis said:

You can see that the barrel forms a flower whose petals go outwards. It's clearly an explosion inside the barrele.

It's clear it was an internal detonation.  I just don't know enough about how artillery get damaged to know if it had to be just poor maintenance (cement rats nesting in the barrel?) or could result from external damage like CB that could then cause that kind of internal explosion on a later round.

[chrisl]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, fun is not the likely word those guys would have chosen.  Interesting or perhaps exciting, but not fun

So Type III fun then.

[JonS]

Probably an ammo failure, and specifically a fuse failure. There are other things that could cause it (mainly barrel blockage of some sort) but they're less plausible.

Bore prems are f**king horrifying. Breech prems are worse. You suddenly lose trust and faith in all parts of the system. You generally also lose a few friends.

Edited June 8, 2022 by JonS

[chrisl]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

Someone in the intelligence blob with an exaggerated sense of their own importance has found the NYT reporter who might as well be on the Russian payroll. Bleeping irritating

I saw that article last night and thought it was weird that the reporters couldn't figure out that given the ISR imbalance and politics, nobody in the US admin can really talk about how much they might know even if they do have a lot of current detail. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Welcome to the forum and thanks for taking the time to register to contribute to this discussion!

Thank you. I am actually long time CM player (fell in love with CMBO) and forum reader as well. But I avoided commenting because until recently my opinion that Russians military sucks big time was not very popular.  

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It seems that my reminder that Russia doesn't have endless artillery capabilities was well timed   If we are seeing the tip of the iceberg, we're likely going to have corroborating evidence in the next 1-2 weeks in the form of less artillery strikes front wide, shorter and/or less effective uses in key areas, or something else that indicates a tempo change that isn't readily explained.

If I am not mistaken Murz said somewhere else that they started to compensate lack of proper infantry by increasing number of tubes used for assault support leaving some areas defenseless. For example, for Popasna assault they left Donetsk defenseless artillery wise. 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The comments about the weapons taken out of storage is of particular interest to me.  I've always presumed that equipment like this goes into storage in whatever state it was in prior to being decommissioned.  That's the lazy and cheap way of doing, which is apparently SOP for Russia.  Which means these mothballed systems run the gamut from "probably usable" to "going to get someone killed using it".

AFAIK It is much worse - when weapons go to storage they are usually cannibalized for spare parts. After that nobody really checks or maintain them. Any auditor/controller is simply bribed. Possibly that is the reason they do not inspect guns beforehand - otherwise they will have to report the scale of the problem and face the consequences. 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The other interesting point here is this indicates that Russia has run through it's "ready" inventory and is now having to dig around for replacements.  Whether this is because of battlefield losses or wearing them out, it doesn't matter in the near term.  A gun out of service is a gun out of service.  Obviously long term guns that are worn out can be brought back to the battlefield eventually.  But in a timeframe that matters?  I don't think that's very likely.

I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers.  20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This sort of bottleneck problem is not specific to Russia, though I do think Russia is likely less capable of muscling through it quickly as other countries.  Therefore, unless Russia is in possession of a magic wand I don't see them getting many guns taken out of the fight back into the fight within a timeframe that matters to this war.

 Oh, I hope one day somebody translate all Murz rants about how inefficient Russian Army is. Only Wagnerites/PMC or LDNR+Russian volunteers may be capable of doing that fast. But regular Russian Army on a mass scale? No. Just No. 

Personally, from my limited experience with Russian army + what I know from reading Russians I believe your predictions are spot on. It is just Russian society (and the army as part of that society) is like pressure cooker - it can withstand a lot of internal pressure without huge visible cracks for a time being. Then it explodes when nobody expects.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, JonS said:

Probably an ammo failure, and specifically a fuse failure. There are other things that could cause it (mainly barrel blockage of some sort) but they're less plausible.

Bore prems are f**king horrifying. Breech prems are worse. You suddenly lose trust and faith in all parts of the system. You generally also lose a few friends.

If some branch of Ukrainian intelligence could access a few stockpiles and add some intentionally wonky fuses it might be the final shove the Russians morale needs. Of course maybe they just did. I am sure the complete lack of care given to these old stockpiles extended to even pretending to guard them.

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

Someone in the intelligence blob with an exaggerated sense of their own importance has found the NYT reporter who might as well be on the Russian payroll. Bleeping irritating

If I had a subscription to the New York Times I would cancel it by now.

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting tidbits from yesterday's War in Ukraine YouTube video...

Russia announced it has ~6500 Ukrainian POWs.  Probably nearly half came from Mariupol.  It's probable that most of the other half were taken in the very first week or two of the war.  Other than one sizeable surrender south of Yampil last month (most of a company) there's probably been just small numbers grabbed here and there.

Ukraine, on the other hand, only has maybe 500 Russian POWs.  This is not too surprising as Russia has been on the attack and that means more opportunities to grab prisoners.  Plus, when things go badly for Russian forces they run away instead of being taken prisoner.

Steve

[dan/california]

That is a big number....

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Thank you. I am actually long time CM player (fell in love with CMBO) and forum reader as well. But I avoided commenting because until recently my opinion that Russians military sucks big time was not very popular.  

If I am not mistaken Murz said somewhere else that they started to compensate lack of proper infantry by increasing number of tubes used for assault support leaving some areas defenseless. For example, for Popasna assault they left Donetsk defenseless artillery wise. 

AFAIK It is much worse - when weapons go to storage they are usually cannibalized for spare parts. After that nobody really checks or maintain them. Any auditor/controller is simply bribed. Possibly that is the reason they do not inspect guns beforehand - otherwise they will have to report the scale of the problem and face the consequences. 

I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers.  20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.

 Oh, I hope one day somebody translate all Murz rants about how inefficient Russian Army is. Only Wagnerites/PMC or LDNR+Russian volunteers may be capable of doing that fast. But regular Russian Army on a mass scale? No. Just No. 

Personally, from my limited experience with Russian army + what I know from reading Russians I believe your predictions are spot on. It is just Russian society (and the army as part of that society) is like pressure cooker - it can withstand a lot of internal pressure without huge visible cracks for a time being. Then it explodes when nobody expects.

Hey Grigb, THANKS for your thoughts.  I am really grateful for having an actual RU army veteran's opinions.  And I sincerely hope they don't try to conscript you!

[dan/california]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-to-survive-russias-onslaught-in-eastern-ukraine

A lot of description about how unpleasant it is to shelled continuously.  

A great line about the 777s though

“We used to have to shoot ten times,” Oleg, a sergeant and senior gunner in the unit, told me. “Now we take one shot to correct our fire and on the second hit the target.”

Think about what that means for ammo supply.

[Huba]

Some explanation from Haidai about what happened with Severodonetsk counterattack:

 

[SeinfeldRules]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

On the UKR side of the artillery war the question of maintenence has come up. Today Kos from DailyKos, ex-arty guy, says learning to shoot gun systems is much, much easier than learning to maintain them.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK:  link is direct to the arty article

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/8/2102883/-Ukraine-update-Switching-to-NATO-weapons-isn-t-as-simple-as-people-think-it-is

I wonder what solutions are possible for this?  sounds like they are shipping some systems back to Poland for repair.  I guess not realistic to put NATO arty repair teams on UKR soil.  So maybe UKR can hire retired NCOs & maintenence techs as contractors w money provided by NATO? 

Artillery superiority seems to be the game changer going forward.

It's an interesting article but I would like to see if it is supported by more then that one tweet, because that is all I've been able to find on howitzers having to go back for refit. I'm intensely curiously myself because I personally believe the M777 is a FOB Queen, well suited to supporting remote outposts in a static position but too mechanically fragile for continuous operations such as in Ukraine without extensive maintenance support. Expensive and fragile parts and an over reliance on the finicky hydraulic system (which operates everything from the closing of the breech, the tube elevation mechanism, and ability for the howitzer to displace out of position, as well as other functions) may render it out of combat more then is acceptable. These versions don't even have the digital systems, which can be their own level of burden. I am also interested in the performance of systems like the Caesar (thank you so much @Taranis for all your information on the system!) because the lack of manual or digitally degraded backups concerns me for very similar reasons, considering it may be a system adopted by the US Army. But I seriously doubt we will hear any information on that for a long time, at least from any sort of government sources.

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html

Someone in the intelligence blob with an exaggerated sense of their own importance has found the NYT reporter who might as well be on the Russian payroll. Bleeping irritating

I'm not sure what issue you have with the article? In 2018 I worked on the Joint Staff for Operation Inherent Resolve and attended plenty of staff meetings where we pondered the intentions and plans of the Iraqi Army. They didn't keep us in the loop on everything they did, sometimes for valid reasons and sometimes not. They had no obligation to do so and neither do the Ukrainians. I can absolutely see Ukraine playing the same game, for exactly the reasons outlined in the article. I've read Pentagon briefing transcripts earlier in the war where the spokesman alluded to the very same thing. Another thing I learned being on such a high level staff is that it is extremely rare for the government (or at least the military) to outright lie on the record - there are many other ways to word things and "protect the truth" by bouncing around it, without risking it coming back around on you for lying to the public. So if people in the administration are coming out saying we don't have an accurate picture of Ukrainian forces, I believe it. Because beyond our space based capabilities (which can collect equally well on every system out there, Russian, Ukrainian, or otherwise), I highly doubt we are focusing assets on collecting within Ukraine itself. The risk of an American ISR asset going down in Ukraine and causing an escalation in the conflict is probably far too high for too little gain.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder what solutions are possible for this?  sounds like they are shipping some systems back to Poland for repair.  I guess not realistic to put NATO arty repair teams on UKR soil.  So maybe UKR can hire retired NCOs & maintenence techs as contractors w money provided by NATO? 

Nowadays you can do a lot by video calls. It makes a HUGE difference if you can see what the other guy sees on his side. Believe me, I've done that a lot with people with only a slim grasp of English. Everyone has a mobile phone with a camera. Still images work, too. Especially helpful when you can draw on them.

A few pages back we had that story with someone in the US talking one guy in the UA through his problems with a Javelin. I'm very sure this has happened and more than once.

If you know the basics, have a mechanical background, the right tools & someone you can show/ask you will get through anything. Might take a bit longer but it is doable.