How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

An interesting comment on that:

 

boiling the frog slowly. little by little push the envelope of equipment. at the start of the conflict we were sending AT weapons, now armed drones 4 months later. is it slow? yes, but Russia is still acting like it can win, and if they think they can still win, they will be less likely to hit the panic button and dare NATO to call their bluff. Important to also emphasize, as each tier of equipment is reached, NATO's more flighty members will be very cautious, so matching and illustrating that Russia is not going to respond, is essential for smoothing their feelings and accommodating their concerns but clearly the direction is heading towards more and more advanced equipment. 

 

[FancyCat]

A little more info on the Polish AHS Krab, including some Korean assistance. 

 

 

[poesel]

I had to read up on the different names for the MLRS systems to understand what Germany will deliver.

The tracked MLRS system was fielded by the US at the beginning of the 80s under the name M270. About 150 of them were bought by Germany a few years later and were used by the Bundeswehr under the name 'MARS' (for "Mittleres Artillerieraketensystem" "medium artillery system"). About 40 of the systems were upgraded to "MARS II" a few years ago, the rest was mothballed. MARS II should be equivalent to M270A1 but I'm not sure about that.

 

Greece will also deliver its stock of 150-200 pieces of BMP-1s to Ukraine and will in return receive a number of Marders from Germany to replace them. Exact conditions are not known (to me).

 

Edit: Germany will also deliver one air defense system IRIS-T SL. It was scheduled for another nation and will be rerouted to Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS-T

Edited June 1, 2022 by poesel

[akd]

3 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

BSF Captain 3rd Rank Yuri Kukushkin:

 

@sburke @Kinophile

Kukushin was actually with the HQ of the 242nd Landing Craft Division, 106th Brigade of the Caspian Flotilla, not the BSF.

https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/moriaky-kaspiiskoi-flotylii-rf-vidmovliaiutsia-vykonuvaty-boiovi-zavdannia-cherez-avariinyi-stan-korabliv.html

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by akd

[Fenris]

 

[akd]

well, that's one way to handle it...

 

[chuckdyke]

Update from Austria.

 

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

Oh my!

I poked around and easily found a lot of chatter about this.  Including in Ukrainian news publications, so it is at least making big waves right now.  TASS even was cited as denying he was even in Lyman, which is a good indication he was in Lyman

Here's a posting that not only claims that Pushillin was wounded, but that one of Kadyrov's senior commanders (a Lt Colonel Dimayev) was killed:

https://myukraineis.org/news/lieutenant_colonel_dimayev_and_40_other_kadyrovites_were_killed_in_lyman-478.html

I hope this information is accurate.  Regarding our recent conversation about death and injury, Pushillin is definitely one of those types that I do not wish well.

Steve

[akd]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh my!

I poked around and easily found a lot of chatter about this.  Including in Ukrainian news publications, so it is at least making big waves right now.  TASS even was cited as denying he was even in Lyman, which is a good indication he was in Lyman

Here's a posting that not only claims that Pushillin was wounded, but that one of Kadyrov's senior commanders (a Lt Colonel Dimayev) was killed:

https://myukraineis.org/news/lieutenant_colonel_dimayev_and_40_other_kadyrovites_were_killed_in_lyman-478.html

I hope this information is accurate.  Regarding our recent conversation about death and injury, Pushillin is definitely one of those types that I do not wish well.

Steve

I believe Pushilin was subsequently seen in Mariupol:

Death of the Chechen Police Lt. Col. Zaur Dimaev on 31st May was already noted earlier in the thread.

Edited June 2, 2022 by akd

[GAZ NZ]

Interview with US ex military volunteer fighting in Ukraine 

Part 1 

He has go pro footage to share hours worth 

Very very interesting 

Also financial support is appreciated throu the link on channel to support the volunteers

 

Edited June 2, 2022 by GAZ NZ

[JonS]

The first draft:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/jun/01/100-days-of-war-in-ukraine-how-the-conflict-has-developed?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[Homo_Ferricus]

51 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

Interview with US ex military volunteer fighting in Ukraine 

Also financial support is appreciated throu the link on channel to support the volunteers

 

"When they come across us... first of all we don't take prisoners. You come across my squad, it's a death sentence for you"

Just casually admitting to war crimes I guess? Or maybe implying that they engage to kill without ever intending to give the guy a chance to put his arms in the air. Somehow I get the feeling there were plenty of guys that tried.

 

[Fenris]

Was just thinking about that bit.  I admire the guy for what he's been doing over there but he shouldn't be admitting to stuff like that, especially on the internet.

Edited June 2, 2022 by Fenris
clarification

[sross112]

31 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

"When they come across us... first of all we don't take prisoners. You come across my squad, it's a death sentence for you"

Just casually admitting to war crimes I guess? Or maybe implying that they engage to kill without ever intending to give the guy a chance to put his arms in the air. Somehow I get the feeling there were plenty of guys that tried.

 

He goes on to tell how the RA had been terrorizing, raping and plundering in the village for a couple weeks and didn't want to describe the details of what he had seen and heard. I know two wrongs don't make a right, but if I was on the jury I'd have a pretty hard time convicting anyone in that circumstance. Then again I'm still waiting for the government to defund the police so we can reinstate frontier justice. So maybe I'm a little biased towards you reap what you sow, an eye for an eye, etc. Of course they didn't steal their stuff, torture and rape the Russians before killing them, so it was only a tooth for an eye, but good enough I reckon.

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Was just thinking about that bit.  I admire the guy for what he's been doing over there but he shouldn't be admitting to stuff like that, especially on the internet.

1 agreed - a war crime is a war crime

2 Ukraine needs POWs.  Russia has been kidnapping civilians.  Force them to trade including the guys from Mariupol.

Edited June 2, 2022 by sburke

[sburke]

even Russian dogs are joining the UK army though I think this does counter the rumor of Russians eating dogs.

Special forces dog abandoned by Russians joins Ukrainian forces (msn.com)

[sburke]

Kremlin warns Biden sending rockets to Ukraine 'adding fuel to the fire' (msn.com)

whoa what was that we just ran over?  Oh I think it was another red line.   

The long version response

The White House principal deputy national security adviser, Jonathan Finer, said Wednesday morning that "Russia has brought this on itself."

"We don't negotiate our security assistance packages to Ukraine with the Kremlin," Finer said during an interview with CNN, adding that Biden had warned Russian President Vladimir Putin "directly" that if he "launched a new, renewed invasion of Ukraine, the United States would increase the amount of security assistance we were providing, including new and advanced systems."

The short version

FU Putin

 

The missiles will be provided as part of a new $700 million security assistance package for Ukraine -- the 11th of its kind from the U.S. -- which will also include additional Javelin anti-tank missiles, helicopters, tactical vehicles and artillery rounds.

The HIMARS is a longer-range rocket system that can fire munitions up to 190 miles.

But the munitions the U.S. plans to provide Ukraine have a maximum range of around 43 miles, according to Pentagon officials.

Belgorod is 43.94 miles from Kharkiv.  hmmmmmm

Edited June 2, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

even Russian dogs are joining the UK army though I think this does counter the rumor of Russians eating dogs.

Special forces dog abandoned by Russians joins Ukrainian forces (msn.com)

well, maybe that's why the dog defected

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

Kremlin warns Biden sending rockets to Ukraine 'adding fuel to the fire' (msn.com)

whoa what was that we just ran over?  Oh I think it was another red line.   

The long version response

The White House principal deputy national security adviser, Jonathan Finer, said Wednesday morning that "Russia has brought this on itself."

"We don't negotiate our security assistance packages to Ukraine with the Kremlin," Finer said during an interview with CNN, adding that Biden had warned Russian President Vladimir Putin "directly" that if he "launched a new, renewed invasion of Ukraine, the United States would increase the amount of security assistance we were providing, including new and advanced systems."

The short version

FU Putin

 

The missiles will be provided as part of a new $700 million security assistance package for Ukraine -- the 11th of its kind from the U.S. -- which will also include additional Javelin anti-tank missiles, helicopters, tactical vehicles and artillery rounds.

The HIMARS is a longer-range rocket system that can fire munitions up to 190 miles.

But the munitions the U.S. plans to provide Ukraine have a maximum range of around 43 miles, according to Pentagon officials.

Belgorod is 43.94 miles from Kharkiv.  hmmmmmm

Wow, I love everything about what SBurke posted here.  FU Putin, fer shur.  I am tired of the pants-wetting folks not standing up against an unbelievably evil regime and blaming everyone except Putin for this nonstop atrocity.

How often is there actually something this simple to figure out the right thing to do? 

Since we don't actually know whether there's already been training on the new weapons for UKR personnel I suppose we don't really know when the new weapons will be wiping out RU artillery.  That's something I'd pay to see -- RU arty getting blasted and not able to counter it.  Won't be fun trying to hold that 600+km line w/o arty advantage.

[sburke]

The list of the recently fired generals

Those fired included Major General of Police Vasily Kukushkin, who was head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Vladimir region; Major General Alexander Laas, deputy head of the Main Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Altai Territory and Major General Andrey Lipilin, head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Yaroslavl Region.
 
Major General Alexander Udovenko of the Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Major General Yuri Instrankin, deputy head of the Department for Logistics and Medical Support of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, were also reportedly dismissed.

Putin has also reportedly fired Police Colonel Emil Musin, who was the first deputy head of the Forensic Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

 

Putin Fires Five Generals as Russia's Military Failures in Ukraine Continue (msn.com)

 

Interesting tidbit on Wikipedia regarding MVD

In December 2019, Distributed Denial of Secrets listed a leak from Russia’s Ministry of the Interior,^[6] portions of which detailed the deployment of Russian troops to Ukraine at a time when the Kremlin was denying a military presence there. Some material from that leak was published in 2014,^[7][8] about half of it wasn’t, and WikiLeaks reportedly rejected a request^[9] to host the files two years later, at a time when Julian Assange was focused on exposing Democratic Party documents passed to WikiLeaks by Kremlin hackers.^[10]

 

I think the first date in that post was supposed to be Dec 2014 - this is the inform Napalm post at that time

Ukrainian cyber troops hack into the servers of Russian Federation: Evidence of Russian military actions revealed. - InformNapalm.org (English)

Edited June 2, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

The list of the recently fired generals

Those fired included Major General of Police Vasily Kukushkin, who was head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Vladimir region; Major General Alexander Laas, deputy head of the Main Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Altai Territory and Major General Andrey Lipilin, head of the Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Yaroslavl Region.
 
Major General Alexander Udovenko of the Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Major General Yuri Instrankin, deputy head of the Department for Logistics and Medical Support of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, were also reportedly dismissed.

Putin has also reportedly fired Police Colonel Emil Musin, who was the first deputy head of the Forensic Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

 

Putin Fires Five Generals as Russia's Military Failures in Ukraine Continue (msn.com)

Those generals don't all, or even mostly, sound like they had much to do w Ukraine failure.  This smells like dictator terrified of coup purging everyone in sight.  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Shows that things in the kremlin are getting rather toasty.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Was just thinking about that bit.  I admire the guy for what he's been doing over there but he shouldn't be admitting to stuff like that, especially on the internet.

Yeah, nah. He shouldn't be *doing* "stuff like that."

Is it understandable? Yes.

Is it illegal? Also yes.

Does the first negate the second? No.

Edited June 2, 2022 by JonS

[Calamine Waffles]

I decided to order these two books from a bookstore in Kyiv. Shipping to the US ($28) will cost more than the books themselves ($25).

I'm a sucker for lavishly illustrated books, so I think these will be worth it.

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, nah. He shouldn't be *doing* "stuff like that."

Is it understandable? Yes.

Is it illegal? Also yes.

Does the first negate the second? No.

Exactly.  Rules of War are not supposed to be left up to individuals to decide if they should apply or not.  Let's hope it was just loud mouthed bravado that was meant to project that they are such accurate fighters that they don't miss.

He should also remember that simply taking up arms against the Russians puts him into legal jeopardy under US law.  Like most nations (ironically, including Russia) it is illegal for its citizens to take up arms against a country that one isn't at war against.  Now, the law is 300+ years old and was written when nations regularly declared war, which is not the case, so it's obviously out of step with reality.  But the law hasn't been updated and therefore it is what it is.

Quick reference:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-it-legal-foreigners-fight-ukraine-2022-03-14/

This is why he's stupid to say stuff like this on the record.  While it is indeed almost unheard of to prosecute an American for fighting on behalf of another nation friendly to the US (i.e. not an enemy state), one shouldn't try to give the government a reason to make an exception.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The list of the recently fired generals

If the titles equate to those in the West, then Putin has fired a bunch of watchdogs that were supposed to be combating corruption and such.  Pretty obvious they didn't do their jobs, bless their selfish little hearts.

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Interesting tidbit on Wikipedia regarding MVD

In December 2019, Distributed Denial of Secrets listed a leak from Russia’s Ministry of the Interior,^[6] portions of which detailed the deployment of Russian troops to Ukraine at a time when the Kremlin was denying a military presence there. Some material from that leak was published in 2014,^[7][8] about half of it wasn’t, and WikiLeaks reportedly rejected a request^[9] to host the files two years later, at a time when Julian Assange was focused on exposing Democratic Party documents passed to WikiLeaks by Kremlin hackers.^[10]

 

I think the first date in that post was supposed to be Dec 2014 - this is the inform Napalm post at that time

Ukrainian cyber troops hack into the servers of Russian Federation: Evidence of Russian military actions revealed. - InformNapalm.org (English)

I don't want us to turn this thread into a WikiLeaks/Assange distraction, so let's just leave it alone and wait (patiently) for the US courts to get their chance to present their case against him.  As of 2 weeks ago the US formally requested extradition now that the British courts are satisfied he won't be mistreated once he arrives in the US.

As for the data leak of Russian MVD documents showing Russia's direct fighting activities in Ukraine c.2014, that's a real blast from the past.  I remember that hitting the news at the time, but it didn't really move the needle much.  Those who knew Russia was actively behind the fighting already had the evidence to prove it.  Those who denied or pretended it was an open question weren't influenced by yet more facts proving them wrong.

Steve