How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Lavrov trying to call West's bluff:

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Dvornikov might be out of command now:

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

Spokesman of Polish Armaments Agency ( a MoD official) just confirmed the number requested, and hinted that delivery times proposed by US industry are really short. If I was an ukrainian rocket artilleryman, I'd be on my way for some champagne

Perhaps. 2023 is the earliest delivery date I have found.

[Huba]

Just now, Vanir Ausf B said:

Perhaps. 2023 is the earliest delivery date I have found.

Sure, for the new ones it might be even later. But maybe Uncle Sam would lend us some from NG stocks, or some M270s as an interim solution, if we are intending to buy that many? Just temporarily
Seriously though, the totted number sounds completely unrealistic, it has to be some ploy by US and Poland to get the weapons to Ukraine, I don't see any other explanation.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

He is in a predicament indeed. If he was sure that his involvement would win the war for Russia, he'd got in I think. OTOH if he does and Russia loses, he'll be hanging from a lamppost in a fortnight. Stalling is a best tactic, but also risky - no matter the outcome of the war, somebody will be really pissed at him at the end.

If I was him, the Free Belarusan units in UA army would scare the crap out of me.

Yes, the Belarus decision to stay out of the war (directly) is not being revisited in any meaningful way.  This recent announcement is a paper pushing thing with no practical meaning.  It's something for Russian audiences, probably, and to keep Ukrainian troops covering the border.

I think Lukashenko convinced Putin months ago that pushing him to go to war against Ukraine would mean Belarus collapses, leaving Russia without an ally and giving the Russian people the wrong idea of what to do with dictators.

Belarus is as likely to attack Ukraine as Poland is.

Steve

[Centurian52]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Politico article about Poland's calling out of Germany for not fulfilling it's agreement to send Leopards to replace Soviet type tanks shipped to Ukraine:

https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-president-accuses-germany-of-breaching-promises-on-ukraine-related-tank-deliveries/

The interesting bit in here is I finally saw a number for how many tanks Poland moved into Ukraine -> 240.

This is one of the reasons I am saying that Ukraine is already over the hump in terms of rearming itself.  According to Oryx, Ukraine has lost a total of 177 tanks (including some that were recovered) and captured 244 (54 are listed as "abandoned", so I presume not usable).  If we do simple math, Ukraine 36% more tanks than when it started the war.  What's more, the Polish and many of the Russian tanks are better than the tanks Ukraine lost.

The Polish tanks alone are enough to outfit 5 tank battalions and have some left in reserve.  That's more than enough to outfit an entire Tank Brigade.

We'll see if Ukraine can get more tanks, but I think they've got enough to do what they need to do this summer with what they already have.

Steve

I'm not sure we can yet confidently say that Ukraine has more tanks now than they started the war with. At least not with these numbers alone. For one, Oryx is only counting visually confirmed tank losses. That means that the tank losses reported by Oryx represent the minimum number of tanks that either side could have lost to date, not an estimate of the actual number that either side has lost to date. The Oryx numbers are certainly an undercount of both Ukrainian and Russian tank losses. I expect they have probably undercounted Ukrainian losses to a greater degree than they have undercounted Russian losses, since I expect that Russian tank losses are probably more likely to get photographed. The Ukrainians have still probably lost fewer tanks overall than the Russians, but probably not by as wide a margin as is suggested by the Oryx numbers.

I don't know how many of the captured Russian tanks are usable. Certainly nowhere near all of them. But of course even a completely unusable captured Russian tank still represents a pile of spare parts that can be used to bring some damaged Ukrainian tanks back into service.

So how much Ukraine has gained depends a lot on how much Oryx has undercounted their losses, and how many captured tanks = 1 new or repaired Ukrainian tank. If we assume the actual Ukrainian tank losses are twice the Oryx numbers and about 2 captured Russian tanks represents 1 new or repaired Ukrainian tank then, when you add in the Polish tanks, the Ukrainians are just about breaking even on the number of tanks they have now as opposed to the start of the war. If the actual Ukrainian tank losses are less than twice the Oryx numbers, and/or 1 captured Russian tank represents more than 0.5 new or repaired Ukrainian tanks then the Ukrainians have had a net increase in tanks. If the actual Ukrainian tank losses are more than twice the Oryx number, and/or 1 captured Russian tank represents less than 0.5 new or repaired Ukrainian tanks then the Ukrainians have had a net decrease in tanks since the war started.

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Lukashenko is in a tightening vise. His own people hate him, and want NOTHING to do with this war, but Putin all but owns him. Putin wants Belarus in the war. This is just not a stable situation with rebellion on one side, and Polonium tea on the other. I am sort of a broken record on this, but if NATO really could kick off a rebellion/revolution/collapse in Belarus it really is the biggest blow we could deal Putin short of getting in the war. 

Oh wouldn't that be a nice proxy action.

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sure, for the new ones it might be even later. But maybe Uncle Sam would lend us some from NG stocks, or some M270s as an interim solution, if we are intending to buy that many? Just temporarily
Seriously though, the totted number sounds completely unrealistic, it has to be some ploy by US and Poland to get the weapons to Ukraine, I don't see any other explanation.

Maybe Poland is returning to their Warsaw Pact roots by going for an artillery-centric army?

It is a staggering number, and I don't have a good explanation. But if the US decided to supply HIMARS to Ukraine I don't know why they would funnel it though a Polish acquisition rather than giving it directly.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

Lavrov trying to call West's bluff:

 

This is not the first time this has come from the Kremlin, yet multiple howitzer systems that could easily strike into Russian territory are already in Ukraine's hands.  Not far in, but certainly fitting Lavrov's warning.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I'm not sure we can yet confidently say that Ukraine has more tanks now than they started the war with. At least not with these numbers alone.

Yeah, I should have heavily qualified my calculations as the basis for them is not precise and likely an undercount.  I also have no numbers on how many tanks Ukraine had in reserve, so I don't know what the current readiness level is of Ukrainian tank forces.

The primary purpose of my post was to put the numbers of Polish T-72s in context.  240 tanks is a big contribution relative to Ukraine's pre-war forces and, likely, in relation to what it has lost so far.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Great Tank Swap continues.

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is not the first time this has come from the Kremlin, yet multiple howitzer systems that could easily strike into Russian territory are already in Ukraine's hands.  Not far in, but certainly fitting Lavrov's warning.

Steve

They have a border, a freakin slingshot would technically qualify.  More trash talk and empty threats.  Besides UA has already crossed that border more than once to demonstrate Russian vulnerability and the Russian response was... nothing.

[chrisl]

41 minutes ago, Huba said:

Especially juicy excerpt from Solovyov's talk show - guest throws a tantrum about NATO support and Scholz saying Russia's terms are unacceptable. I'm not sure if it's scary or funny, for sure shows that they are more and more afraid of the outcome:

 

It seems he already knows the outcome and just wants to rant about it.  It really amounted to a long, ranty version of the joke that ends with:

Russian mother: "and how are NATO's losses?"

Russian son in Special Operation: "They haven't turned up yet."

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

They have a border, a freakin slingshot would technically qualify.  More trash talk and empty threats.  Besides UA has already crossed that border more than once to demonstrate Russian vulnerability and the Russian response was... nothing.

Yup.  And if I cared to I could dig up all kinds of blathering statements warning NATO to not supply Ukraine with any weaponry at all, especially Javelin.  Putin is the little boy who cried wolf too many times.  Unfortunately, it's taking NATO about 10 years and 1000s of "wolf!" calls for it to finally understand the situation, but it looks like most have caught on.

I do still think that Russia may react very emotionally if attacks on Russian soil become regular or if ground troops are involved.  This is why any action against Crimea, including Sevastopol, needs to be very clearly and soberly thought out ahead of time.

Steve

[Kinophile]

The Free Belarussian units should be stood up as complete Battalion level task group with organic artillery, etc. Give them sufficient experience fighting as a coherent formation to veteranize but not gut their numbers, then place them on the border nearest the "strongest" Belarussian units.

Let them communicate, fraternize, infiltrate and subvert their command, then move across to combine with them and form the core of a new Belarussian Army. March on Minsk.

Time this for just after the UKR offensive gets going and Russia is locked in combat.

Oh and a **** load of NLAWs of course

Btw, not making this up but transliterating by memory from articles I read years ago about North Vietnamese subversion of South Vietnamese units.

 

Edited May 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It seems he already knows the outcome and just wants to rant about it.  It really amounted to a long, ranty version of the joke that ends with:

Russian mother: "and how are NATO's losses?"

Russian son in Special Operation: "They haven't turned up yet."

Wow... that was some rant!  I particularly love the fact that he directed his ire against one of the nations that is most hesitant to help Ukraine as if it is Russia's biggest problem.

The first part of his rant about Russia fighting a losing war if it doesn't mobilize is accurate.  Though his thinking that declaring war means scaling up Iskander missile production is a bit flawed because that's not what is holding back production.  Putin could have them produce however many they are capable of without a declaration, so if production is slow then there's some other reason for it.  Like lack of parts?

Of course he is wrong about Russia being able to nuke Germany without the US retaliating.  That's dangerous fantasy talk there.

Steve

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Maybe Poland is returning to their Warsaw Pact roots by going for an artillery-centric army?

It is a staggering number, and I don't have a good explanation. But if the US decided to supply HIMARS to Ukraine I don't know why they would funnel it though a Polish acquisition rather than giving it directly.

It is cheaper to kill the entire Russian invasion force with one salvo and don't have them contaminate our soil, then to let them in  
Other explanation might be that as some talks already took place I assume,  our government is trying to completely rob Uncle Sam on the lend lease deal (very unlikely, they aren't smart enough to even contemplate doing it). Or they are just throwing random numbers to blame the next government of backtracking from their glorious idea.

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The Free Belarussian units should be stood up as complete Battalion level task group with organic artillery, etc. Give them sufficient experience fighting as a coherent formation to veteranize but not gut their numbers, then place them on the border nearest the "strongest" Belarussian units.

Let them communicate, fraternize, infiltrate and subvert their command, then move across to combine with them and form the core of a new Belarussian Army. March on Minsk.

The Free Belarusans are already a separate unit, recently promoted to a Regiment. I'm sure the idea of it being a nucleus of a future army (or government) didn't miss relevant people in Kiyv.

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The Free Belarussian units should be stood up as complete Battalion level task group with organic artillery, etc. Give them sufficient experience fighting as a coherent formation to veteranize but not gut their numbers, then place them on the border nearest the "strongest" Belarussian units.

Let them communicate, fraternize, infiltrate and subvert their command, then move across to combine with them and form the core of a new Belarussian Army. March on Minsk.

Time this for just after the UKR offensive gets going and Russia is locked in combat.

Oh and a **** load of NLAWs of course

Btw, not making this up but transliterating by memory from articles I read years ago about North Vietnamese subversion of South Vietnamese units.

 

at some point, I could picture the "free UKR" forces moving into Belarus and the Belarus military simply refusing to fire on them.  If the officers in Belarus army believe they will get to keep their jobs in new government, they might just not fight at all.  It would be like Castro walking into Havana (preferably w/o a new Castro, of course). 
 

Power, as we all know, ultimately only exists if the people w the weapons actually choose to fire them.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good examples about how hard it is to spot a Javelin launch.  Not much smoke profile at any point.  And if the gunner is behind something to further obscure the backblast, well... the victim isn't likely going to see it coming and the survivors aren't going to know where it came from.

Steve

Nah, just look for the cameraman standing up to get a better angle

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

The Free Belarusans are already a separate unit, recently promoted to a Regiment. I'm sure the idea of it being a nucleus of a future army (or government) didn't miss relevant people in Kiyv.

Aha, my impression was they were about a 1-2 companies in number, max. Is the regiment designation indicative of actual ORBAT and TOE? Is it kitted, equipped and training as a unified force?

Or is it a shell formation to gather various disparate units under?

Curious of their actual numbers and organization adjacent to the UA regular army.  I'm assuming their being treated as TDF type formation?

Edited May 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Aha, my impression was they were about a 1-2 companies in number, max. Is the regiment designation indicative of actual ORBAT and TOE? Is it kitted, equipped and training as a unified force?

Or is it a shell formation to gather various disparate units under?

Curious of their actual numbers and organization adjacent to the UA regular army.  I'm assuming their being treated as TDF type formation?

I think it is more designation than actual structure, they are a separate unit though. Here's their Twitter, I don't really know more than that  unfortunately:

 

[Taranis]

 

[Taranis]

T-80BV tanks are being loaded into echelons in Naro-Fominsk in Moscow region

https://t.me/informnapalm/8832

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Especially juicy excerpt from Solovyov's talk show - guest throws a tantrum about NATO support and Scholz saying Russia's terms are unacceptable. I'm not sure if it's scary or funny, for sure shows that they are more and more afraid of the outcome:

 

If the situation in Ukraine was not so tragic some of the stuff that has been coming from Russian television would be downright hilarious. Almost like something from a Saturday night sketch show. Here is another example.

 

[FancyCat]

While Germany could be faster with armaments, German money is still important tbf. EU money is very important for keeping Ukraine afloat, and for just generally ensuring Ukraine can fight on. One easy way for NATO members to sort of avoid "escalation" is simply have everything go to Eastern European states like Poland, Baltics, who basically enjoy telling Russia to go to hell and have them pass on the equipment to Ukraine. Pretty sure this is ongoing rn.