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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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13 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I have yet to meet a howitzer crew, fire direction crew, or observer team that could accurately and rapidly re-direct fire on a maneuvering vehicle

This is the space for loitering munitions. Even if a truck full of Switchblades doesn't replace an artillery battery (and it offers mobility, manpower and as a result logistic advantages over one) it fills that gap for beyond visual range precision attack on mobile targets.

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Russian user (former DPR volunteer) writes on Lost Armor that UKR troops pushed off Russians (not LPR conscripts) from Ternova village, NE Kharkiv almost near the border. He writes also Russians had a lack of personnel, because some part of troops were moved to establish defensive lines on Russian territory, because they expects Ukrainian actions on Russian territory

 

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well this is another big problem.  Two guys in a treeline that can kill a tank at 4kms.  How on earth are we going to be able to tell it is that 100m they are in? 

This isn't a new problem though - it's basically encapsulating the problem the allies had in Normandy (replace atgm with atg, mortar and mg).

The answer then was slow grinding attrition chewing forward. The same approach would work now, with a high level of isr asymmetry allowing the attrition to be highly one-sided (ie, /their/ side gets attrited, but not ours ;) ). It'd still be really slow though.

Edited by JonS
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3 minutes ago, JonS said:

@dan/california, yeah, but if your ISR sucks then any amount of pgm won't help you.

Oh I agree with that, but if you can kill found targets with fewer rounds you can spend more of your logistical support on semi-disposable drones to find targets for those smart rounds to kill. The thing this war is just edging into, but it will be a much bigger deal going forward, is that you have to start thinking about drones as ammo. On average drone model X can survey y square kilometers before getting vaporized. Because everything and everybody out there is starting to understand that you kill the drones, or you can die. It is highly motivational.

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26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe some sort of precision screen, able to find and hit with very high resolution and then massed precision fires for our own deep strike?

Obviously not quite there yet, but I wonder how long it'll be until you can dump AI controlled recon drone swarms on the enemy a la cluster munitions.

Plus, they sound scary.

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6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian user (former DPR volunteer) writes on Lost Armor that UKR troops pushed off Russians (not LPR conscripts) from Ternova village, NE Kharkiv almost near the border. He writes also Russians had a lack of personnel, because some part of troops were moved to establish defensive lines on Russian territory, because they expects Ukrainian actions on Russian territory

 

Closer, and closer to Vovchans'k, With cuts one of the major GLOCs from Belgorod.  If the can bring even moderate deep strike any where on the other Route to Kupiansk  all the Russian forces to the south of there are REALLY going to have logistical problems

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Destroying of Russian SP-howitzer by 93rd mech. brigade in Izium area. Huge detonation and shockwave. There is unknown either single gun or some arty unit turned out in the range of this explosion

 

Edited by Haiduk
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33 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Obviously not quite there yet, but I wonder how long it'll be until you can dump AI controlled recon drone swarms on the enemy a la cluster munitions.

Plus, they sound scary.

Well that is how to ISR a treeline, give them small DPICM charges and now we are onto something.

And we haven't even started in on UGVs

Edited by The_Capt
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38 minutes ago, JonS said:

This isn't a new problem though - it's basically encapsulating the problem the allies had in Normandy (replace atgm with atg, mortar and mg).

The answer then was slow grinding attrition chewing forward. The same approach would work now, with a high level of isr asymmetry allowing the attrition to be highly one-sided (ie, /their/ side gets attributed, but not ours ;) ). It'd still be really slow though.

And I think that is the problem we are solving for because we are not looking for slow and grinding, we want fast and quick.  So how do we take these conditions and do that?  I am basically at, if we had to the fight the UA current methods, how would we do that?

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30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Closer, and closer to Vovchans'k, With cuts one of the major GLOCs from Belgorod.  If the can bring even moderate deep strike any where on the other Route to Kupiansk  all the Russian forces to the south of there are REALLY going to have logistical problems

Ternova is already just about within 20km of the rail lines and major road through Vovchans'k. That's getting towards effective artillery range.

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6 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I'm going to take a minute before work to address this Twitter thread by Trent. I only caught the first part of his thread in my responses yesterday, and I think the rest of what he posted is a perfect example of him taking isolated situations and extrapolating them to create sexy scenarios for public consumption with little additional evidence. In this thread he takes examples of shell burst patterns to build this idea of Ukraine using a vast network of distributed, digital howitzers to shoot and scoot across the battlefield. The tactic is certainly feasible on paper - it's been around in doctrine since WW1, the US Army calls it a "roving gun" - but hardly unique to Ukraine. The AFATDS system and digital howitzers that we use are literally designed to facilitate this function. And while Ukraine may be using a digital system to route and process fire missions, but from what I've seen the vast majority of their howitzers (and definitely not the 122mm D-30s he references) lack the digital systems to make it truly effective to the extent he describes. Trent uses a lot of questionable assumption to build this idea of Ukrainian artillery supremacy that is honestly not backed by the data I'm seeing. If he has more sources to back his claims I would love to see them, because none of his thread passes the sniff test for this artillery officer.

Please don't take this as a slight on you Grey Fox or anyone who found Trent's thread interesting, this is just professionally frustrating to see someone the public "trusts" peddling such poorly sourced information in such a confident manner. Now I get to see his thread linked in every Reddit and Twitter thread featuring artillery, talking about something that is almost certainly not happening, at least not to the extent that Trent describes.

Thanks for the insight

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

Think about the volume you are talking

🙄 - I know and I wrote just that. And again: its an option. Something that may not be very useful now but can be improved in the future.

China depends a lot on external trade. If the US navy decides to close Chinese international shipping there is not much China can do about it. IIRC the British did that in the opium war and that lesson has not been forgotten.

74BE8AF5-96A4-42B9-B1AF-4B88BB260C5C_w65

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The Russians withdraw instead of putting up a fight in the Kharkov area from what I’ve been hearing. They know they are outnumbered and at a disadvantage currently. They’ll probably withdraw back to the border for a counter-offensive if they’re serious about this war; if they want to play it safe they’ll just hold the border. 

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1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Obviously not quite there yet, but I wonder how long it'll be until you can dump AI controlled recon drone swarms on the enemy a la cluster munitions.

Plus, they sound scary.

There's a lot of pushback against drones based on past or current limitations.  They aren't looking ahead enough to what is coming.

Steve

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On 5/5/2022 at 3:46 PM, kraze said:

The difference is that Germans had a stomach to admit that their fathers and grandfathers were criminal and did horrible atrocities. Russians made heroes of theirs, even though they were no different. So yeah, while Germany is stained and grandchildren do suffer mostly psychological consequences - nobody will ever argue that Germany is one of the most civilized countries on the planet with a lot of value in human life nowadays.

So if a Russian stealing a toilet bowl and raping some Finnish woman in 1940 is a celebrated hero - why can't a guy doing exactly that be considered a hero in 2022?

Thus rape and looting isn't bad, saying that rape and looting is bad - is bad. It's how a Germany would've been if the war ended with some kind of ceasefire on the outskirts of Germany. It's how Russia ended up being because it all ended with a ceasefire at their border in 1991.

Where there any Ukrainian soldiers In WW2 toilet bowl stealing Red Army? 

Edited by Lethaface
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