How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Best vid I have seen yet about a tank hitting an AT mine, or two.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by DesertFox

[LongLeftFlank]

This is that long, vulnerable looking and (asymetrically) hard to reinforce RA front with no large river barriers, east of Zaporizhe that some of us here been eyeing; about halfway to Donetsk.

If true, these KIA / WIA ratios are just awful, nearly 1 to 1.  I'll defer to the pros, but I'd tend to think medevac is a pretty good barometer for overall logistics....

The frontline forces here have got to be mere shells at this point.

******

Also, UA mech forces enjoy their handiwork in Izium area. Terrain pretty open, so they are clearly in posession of the field. Counterattack or plain attack?

 

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

41 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Best vid I have seen yet about a tank hitting an AT mine, or two.

 

 

Yeah, that's a beauty.

[gnarly]

10 hours ago, Machor said:

Ukrainian M777s in action:

 

Youtube version of that says UAF training in Germany

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

An interesting point about Putin's Russia vs. the old Soviet Union.  The Soviet Union felt that the best way to control the world was to have Communist governments tied together to form a much larger co-dependent confederation.  Putin, on the other hand, really doesn't care what form of government a country has as long as its leadership is corrupt enough that Russia gets what it wants when it wants.  Generally more extreme right or left wing governments are preferable, but that's more a function of those regimes being more easily corruptible rather than some sort of ideological preference.

In a sense, extreme right or left wing governments are "useful idiots" for Russia.

Steve

I think the way I would put this is that Putin's approach is instrumental and but not just in a direct sense of immediate benefit to Russia. What he's also looking for a more general hostility to the international status quo. Thus, Russia can be friendly with Cuba, Orban's Hungary, China or Nicaragua. The ideology, such as it is, is rejection of American hegemony and the rules based order. 

In that sense, those allies are not useful idiots. They *know* why they are doing it, whether those reasons are Cuban fears of being overwhelmed by Miami, Venezuelan paranoia about regime change or Hungarian ethnic resentment and annoyance at those irritating EU penalties for rank corruption. Essentially, all of these regimes want freedom of action without consequence. 

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting maps here. Googtrans below

 

1. It's very possible that the Ukrainian troops are very close to #Vovchansk. New fires reported by FIRMS may indicate the result of an artillery fire. A very important railway line passes through this town

2. If the Ukrainians reach #Vovchansk, they will cross the supply line from the #Belgorod base to the main logistics base in #Kupiansk supplying the front at #Izyum and the northern #Donbas. The transports will have to travel very circularly

Edited May 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank
changed post bec Steve posted video already

[FancyCat]

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by FancyCat

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It could be the beginning of a new push by Putin to lower expectations for full mobilization.  Prior to this the messaging is "we don't need to because we're already winning the war", now it might be shifting to "we don't need to because it won't help us win the war".  Since the first message was obviously intended to keep various Russian segments from thinking mobilization is around the corner, but with the war so obviously failing maybe he's finding that messaging isn't working.  Though this particular media assessment goes way beyond that and suggests that Russia's at a military dead end.  I see how that message helps Putin at all, so it could be this guy's views went too far or they are the views of some group looking to replace Putin.

Whatever the case might be, it certainly is an interesting thing to see on Russian state media.  Therefore, it must have significance.

Steve

 

The old sovok with the white hair and beard in that clip is a Russian Duma member who has been making incredibly blood curdling claims on Russia state tv about using nukes, eradicating Ukrainians, etc. He remains respectfully silent throughout a damning and pretty factual statement that Russia is unlikely to win easily if at all. Interesting.

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are incorrect.  Taking down monuments that were erected by traitors (all Southerners who fought for the Confederacy are, by definition, traitors) and racist overlords in order to maintain psychological domination over "lesser races" should be removed because they should never have been allowed to be erected in the first place.  Taking them down is not an act of "political correctness", it is righting a wrong. 

Why the US military allowed its bases to be named after traitors who fought against the US military is astonishing.  Especially because some of those generals weren't even good at their jobs.  Purging those names was long overdue.

Er, are you equating Russian fascists, who have been raping, murdering, and blowing up Ukraine in a deliberate and coordinated state effort to eradicate an entire people from the face of the Earth, with people exercising their free speech and exercising legally available channels (for the most part) in democratic countries?  Just making sure I am understanding what you are saying.

Steve

Steve, 

May I suggest that you need a  button?

[Huba]

And this guy too:

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[Harmon Rabb]

More Ukrainian TB2 footage.

[LongLeftFlank]

This is interesting.  2+ months in, UA infantry still owning the Russians, even spetsnaz, in the deadly ambush game.

 

[billbindc]

44 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The old sovok with the white hair and beard in that clip is a Russian Duma member who has been making incredibly blood curdling claims on Russia state tv about using nukes, eradicating Ukrainians, etc. He remains respectfully silent throughout a damning and pretty factual statement that Russia is unlikely to win easily if at all. Interesting.

https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

Note, the retired colonel who threw cold water on the Ukraine invasion has been doing so since February 3rd at least. He's no dissident and it's interesting that he's not only not being silenced, he's getting on state tv. That doesn't necessarily mean there's a change in policy imminent but it certainly means a faction with power has his back.

Edited May 8, 2022 by billbindc

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

Note, the retired colonel who threw cold water on the Ukraine invasion has been doing so since February 3rd at least. He's no dissident and it's interesting that he's not only not being silenced, he's getting on state tv. That doesn't necessarily mean there's a change in policy imminent but it certainly means a faction with power has his back.

New commentary by Soldatov on the infighting within Russia....

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-setbacks-strategy-generals-putin/31839737.html

And this new reality for them, as they see it, is that Russia still has a peacetime army while [they] face [a] completely mobilized Ukrainian Army that is now being supplied by the West with the best weapons on the planet.

So, as we all knew here, there is no 'second echelon' standing by, or even gearing up. What they're fighting with now is all there is.

The problem here is that [there isn’t] a tradition in the Russian military or the Russian security services to [acknowledge] and [learn from] the mistakes they’ve made

The fact is that this war is different from Putin's previous wars [in Georgia, Syria, and eastern Ukraine] because now we have Telegram channels. [On those], you have pro-military public opinion where you have lots of soldiers, lots of officers, [and] lots of veterans all talking -- not very openly -- but still expressing criticism toward the military.

It might be about very small things. For instance, there was a big frustration about radio sets for helicopters recently. [They were asking in these channels] why they don’t have them and whether they need to collect some money, [which] led to a crowd-sourcing campaign [back in Russia.] In response, the Defense Ministry said that they don’t need them [and] that sparked some bitterness among soldiers and veterans alike for seeing the leadership as out of touch with their needs and unable to listen.. 

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Harmon Rabb]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

And this guy too:

 

The Prime Minister of Croatia also visited Ukraine.

[mosuri]

What people in various European countries think about whose fault it is that Russia attacked -- Yougov poll

Sad numbers from the Balkans.

 

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

55 minutes ago, Huba said:

And this guy too:

 

And then there's this.

As a onetime consultant who hates the entire profession with the heat of a million suns, I think this is a terrible idea.

...In fact, send the entire global McKinsey, BCG and Accenture teams to the Donetsk front and issue them Mosin-Nagants.

[akd]

Seriously, when are they going to give up?

You’ll never control Ukraine’s precious snake resources Russia.

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The Prime Minister of Croatia also visited Ukraine.

And also head of German Parliment AFAIK - culmination of visits ahead of tomorrow. Shame Scholtz won't come to Kiev to celebrate 9th of May with Zelensky, but maybe some other leaders will - great opportunity to score some easy publicity. 

Edit: Also president of Norwegian Parlimen paid a visit today

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1523314692189728769

19 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And then there's this.

As a onetime consultant who hates the entire profession with the heat of a million suns, I think this is a terrible idea.

...In fact, send the entire global McKinsey, BCG and Accenture teams to the Donetsk front and issue them Mosin-Nagants.

Absolutely +1  on Accenture, penal battalion on de-mining duty would be appropriate. From my humble experience with them.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, mosuri said:

What people in various European countries think about whose fault it is that Russia attacked -- Yougov poll

Sad numbers from the Balkans.

What is really unexpected is Slovakia's results - Slovak gov is in the vanguard of Ukraine supporting movement. Nationalistic bygones, same as Hungary?

 

Oooh, and first video of M777 actually in Ukraine I think:

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And then there's this.

 

As a onetime consultant who hates the entire profession with the heat of a million suns, I think this is a terrible idea.

...In fact, send the entire global McKinsey, BCG and Accenture teams to the Donetsk front and issue them Mosin-Nagants.

Having formerly worked for McKinsey... I second this.  (McKinsey pulled out of Russia earlier this year).  How about we give every other one a rifle?

[Huba]

A very nice summary of ongoing Battle of Snake Island:

Also a rant about Russians destroying a church - but what really stick out is the Battle Pikachu:

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Mobilization has begun!

 

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are incorrect.  Taking down monuments that were erected by traitors (all Southerners who fought for the Confederacy are, by definition, traitors)  

This has always amazed me. I dont know of any other country that honoured the generals who violated their oaths and led a brutal insurrection against a democratically elected government. In Ireland, theres no statues to the Anti-Treaty rebels; why would there be? Yes the victors write the history, but a nation cannot have closure if it allows honouring the faction/ideology that caused a lot of suffering and destruction. Ukr absolutely needs to remove Russian cultural and political totems, for moral and cultural reasons, to reinforce the state and nations legitimacy.

Equivalently, Russia needs to do the sane to Ukr symbols to remove social competition to the legitimacy of its imposed regimes. Destruction of statues is inevitable, on both sides.

But when this is over, Ukraine sure as hell wont be putting up statutes to Pushlin and his credulous, corrupt ilk.

 

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Mobilization has begun!

 

Didn't know evil putin was so good at dressing up like innocent, oppressed russian kindergarten teachers and switching between costumes so simultaneously.