How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

FIFY  Apart from that, I agree wholeheartedly, that's how everyone is feeling round this parts.

+1 (Out of reactions at the moment...)

[akd]

23 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Wonderful drone footage

 

 

What’s written on sides of this tank?  The hearts are atypical.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Soon NATOs agressive and hostile expansion policy soley aimed at destruction of Russian poverty state will continue as the West finally coups Finland and Sweden and forces them to join NATO despite their populations desire to forever live in glorious democracy called Russia.

Maybe Russias peaceful proclamation of Nuclear Holocaust retaliation will open those corrupt polititians eyes as to who the real threat is.. NATO!

Sarcasm is a dish best served cold.  Well done, Kraft.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

Rough count, about 32 impacts. One was a direct hit. Reference the hit on the Russian HQ north of Izyum, the odds given of hitting the HQ building (or, the assumed HQ building) by random chance was given as 2 or 3%. Or so I remember it.  The argument was that it had to be a guided weapon to hit that building.

Looking at the above video, what are the odds of a direct hit on the launcher? Yet, that's what occurred...

 

Have to get a reasonable measure of the area, but probably comparably low for a direct hit.

A few comments though:

1) That barrage looked like it was entirely airbursts, and if you scroll through slowly, there's a burst at 0:05 above the unit that explodes on the ground very shortly before the big explosion.  So it wasn't likely a direct hit from a round, but from one of the fragments from that round, which spread over a much larger area than a single round.  So the chances are that most of the vehicles got hit with shrapnel, and that one got hit with a piece with enough energy in the right place to set of a secondary explosion.

2) There's selection bias in the videos that get posted - a bunch of rounds blowing up without dramatic results is less likely to get posted (i.e. how many rounds a day are they firing and how many of those bangs get posted on twitter)

3) I think that's the first time I've seen a barrage of airbursts from either side.

[danfrodo]

52 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A battle group plus per day, every single day. Arguably this is more like TWO...

how much do y'all trust this feller? 

I very much love what I am seeing here but don't want to get excited unless he is deemed legit by the smartypants folks here.

[akd]

2 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The Sun is showing what appears to be Admiral Makarov on fire. No officil confirmations yet, so the usual salt shaker rules apply.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5278291/putin-flagship-makarov-fire-neptune-missile-snake-island/

 

That’s a still from the “video” posted above, but looks odd to me.   How would the drone’s position relative to the ship change that quickly at the distance the image quality implies?  I think it is heavily post-processed footage from Arma or DCS.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, akd said:

That’s a still from the “video” posted above, but looks odd to me.   How would the drone’s position relative to the ship change that quickly at the distance the image quality implies?  I think it is heavily post-processed footage from Arma or DCS.

Unless it is the ship making a turn? TBH I also think this video is a fake, but that argument alone is I think not enough to disprove it.

[OldSarge]

Just now, akd said:

That’s a still from the “video” posted above, but looks odd to me.   How would the drone’s position relative to the ship change that quickly at the distance the image quality implies?  I think it is heavily post-processed footage from Arma or DCS.

Yep, it being a deep-fake wouldn't surprise me. Especially as none of the other media has picked up on it or confirmed it.

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

That could very well be. Most of the time I was laughing my head off looking at him, so I never really studied it. 

Was less funny for people in US who actually live in an evidence based reality.  Not funny at all. 

[Haiduk]

After several days of fighting, UKR troops withdrew from Shandryholove village. Situation in Oleksandrivka still unclear, clashes around it continues. Locals wrote first small arms clashes were heared on eastern outskirts of Lyman today - maybe Russian recons probe.

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Was less funny for people in US who actually live in an evidence based reality.  Not funny at all. 

I can imagine that, Dan. Putin really missed a golden opportunity.

[FancyCat]

18 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Im my mind it was above all the political chaos in the US that made Putin believe he could get away with attacking Ukraine. The EU has never been more than an indecisive bunch of sheeps, without a shepherd to lead them. I don't think Putin expected such a strong reaction from both the US and the EU. Which brings me back to my initial question. Why didn't Putin invade Ukraine while that bleached idiot was still in the white house?

COVID and his cancer and his impending morality probably hit him during trump's period, likely he was counting on him being reelected and with that security for trump to undertake more chaos domestically and foreign policy wise, Putin would would do the same invasion only Biden got elected instead.

The unfortunate part about of this destruction of Russian imperialism and colonialism is that it could have been avoided had Russia been able to look inward and recognize the agency of her colonized and imperial ruled peoples and therefore with the reset of the fall of the Soviet Union undertake a more cooperative framework that may well have led to joining NATO and the EU in the future.

DMS really does not give much consideration to Ukrainians asking for agency or the Baltics, seems to consider the Russian sphere of influence to be the only important factor in the relations with Eastern Europe. Does he believe the bombings of Belgrade to be legitimate? Seems no, he seems to think the genocide of Kosovo is fake or maybe not a justification for the intervention of NATO.

Ultimately, accepting the genocide attempt occurred in Kosovo means accepting the bombing of Belgrade was legitimate, which means the attempted wiping of Ukraine by Russia is the same sort of action that brings about the bombing of Moscow.

I still want him to answer whether he thinks the rhetoric calling for the erasure of Ukrainian culture is justified, just overblown rhetoric or if he considers it a overstep.

59 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians are convincing them, one 155 airburst at a time. Quite literally everyone who has ever been ruled by Russia, and managed to get out from under them would literally rather die than go back under Russian control. It really is that simple. And the Putin seems determined to demonstrate they were right to feel that way.

^

If nothing else, the shock of Russia being defeated by Ukraine is going to hit Russians hard, NATO assistance regardless, DMS is right, it will be utterly humiliating. What Russia, many pro-Russians argue is that allowing the humiliation to take place is going to unleash even worse outcomes from Russia and the Russian people.

As others have stated, Russia is acting like a abusive ex-, trying their best to threaten and beat their partner back into their world.

This cannot occur anymore. I'm sorry but the West cannot let Russia brutalize it's former colonies to retain their sense of being.

Like many abusive people, part of the framework for their justification for their actions rests on being the victim, and being the maligned party.

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

What’s written on sides of this tank?  The hearts are atypical.

Writings Sakul - this can be name of the tank, given by the name of tank commander (this is Armenian name) or some fantasy hero name (hm... Sakul from SW: Knights of Old Republic?), I don't know %)  

12 RUS and heart, probably 12th region of Russia by their car plate signification - Mari El Republic (adm. center Yoshkar-Ola city). Probably tank commander from there

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

After several days of fighting, UKR troops withdrew from Shandryholove village. Situation in Oleksandrivka still unclear, clashes around it continues. Locals wrote first small arms clashes were heared on eastern outskirts of Lyman today - maybe Russian recons probe.

 

 

These maps always scare me at first, then I remember the scale we are talking about.  That's is a kilometer or less.  And   RU still nowhere near getting to Slovyansk.  Hopefully a few weeks from now we'll be talking about RU forces being cut off in this area. 

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

COVID and his cancer and his impending morality probably hit him during trump's period, likely he was counting on him being reelected and with that security for trump to undertake more chaos domestically and foreign policy wise, Putin would would do the same invasion only Biden got elected instead.

The unfortunate part about of this destruction of Russian imperialism and colonialism is that it could have been avoided had Russia been able to look inward and recognize the agency of her colonized and imperial ruled peoples and therefore with the reset of the fall of the Soviet Union undertake a more cooperative framework that may well have led to joining NATO and the EU in the future.

DMS really does not give much consideration to Ukrainians asking for agency or the Baltics, seems to consider the Russian sphere of influence to be the only important factor in the relations with Eastern Europe. Does he believe the bombings of Belgrade to be legitimate? Seems no, he seems to think the genocide of Kosovo is fake or maybe not a justification for the intervention of NATO.

Ultimately, accepting the genocide attempt occurred in Kosovo means accepting the bombing of Belgrade was legitimate, which means the attempted wiping of Ukraine by Russia is the same sort of action that brings about the bombing of Moscow.

I still want him to answer whether he thinks the rhetoric calling for the erasure of Ukrainian culture is justified, just overblown rhetoric or if he considers it a overstep.

^

If nothing else, the shock of Russia being defeated by Ukraine is going to hit Russians hard, NATO assistance regardless, DMS is right, it will be utterly humiliating. What Russia, many pro-Russians argue is that allowing the humiliation to take place is going to unleash even worse outcomes from Russia and the Russian people.

As others have stated, Russia is acting like a abusive ex-, trying their best to threaten and beat their partner back into their world.

This cannot occur anymore. I'm sorry but the West cannot let Russia brutalize it's former colonies to retain their sense of being.

Like many abusive people, part of the framework for their justification for their actions rests on being the victim, and being the maligned party.

If I learned something in life it is that no one is as blind as he who doesn't want to see. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Cobetco]

32 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The Sun is showing what appears to be Admiral Makarov on fire. No officil confirmations yet, so the usual salt shaker rules apply.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5278291/putin-flagship-makarov-fire-neptune-missile-snake-island/

 

from the video I can tell this was up-res'd, either by the sun or ukraine. the video in question probably had fewer pixels available than an NES game. meaning it was either quite far away, or was artificially downsized to distort the source of what ever was used to fake this. Unless we get the raw footage it might as well be considered junk.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Cobetco

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

Putin said that he asked Clinton in 2000, but he reacted "coldly". 

Putin has said a great many things, most of which are lies, fabrications and mistruths.  Putin said he would not invade Ukraine - he did.  Putin said he ordered the halt on the assault of the steel plant in Maruipol - it have been repeatedly assaulted over and over.  Lies, over and over.  Putin has said the civilians have safe passage to leave the steel plant - they cannot due to Russian shelling or breaches of the safe passage.

So excuse me if you said Putin asked Clinton in 2000 and I don't believe him about that claim.   At this point, Putin and the Kremlin have zero credibility with me. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by BlackMoria

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Putin has said a great many things, most of which are lies, fabrications and mistruths.  Putin said he would not invade Ukraine - he did.  Putin said he ordered the halt on the assault of the steel plant in Maruipol - it have been repeatedly assaulted over and over.  Lies, over and over.  Putin has said the civilians have safe passage to leave the steel plant - they cannot due to Russian shelling or breaches of the safe passage.

So excuse me if you said Putin asked Clinton in 2000 and I don't believe him about that claim.   At this point, Putin and the Kremlin have zero credibility with me. 

Hmm, if we had let Putin join NATO we would now be at war with Ukraine, since they are the agressors.

[Huba]

Insult + injury =

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hmm, if we had let Putin join NATO we would now be at war with Ukraine, since they are the agressors.

I am still confused why any of this would make any difference to anything?  So Putin said something and NATO ignored him.  So what??  Would he have changed into a peace loving democratic visionary?  No one trusted him or his country. 

There's so many "what about" things going around I just want to say: How does any of this change anything or matter at all?  Russia embarked on a premeditated course of violent mass murder to completely subjagate Ukraine.  There was no justification for this, as Ukraine posed no realistic threat to Russia.  Compared to this all the other stuff is just noise and distraction. 

[kraze]

You are all taking DMS way too seriously. He is Russian. His problem with NATO is that it prevents his soldiers from raping Poles and Lithuanians, not that it "expands" per se.

He is mad about Belgrade because Serbs had to pay for genocide they did instead of being admired as heroes like Russians treat their criminal grandfathers. If Serbs paid - that means Russians may pay too and he can't have that.

Because he knows what NATO is. It's a threat to him. But it's a threat not because it will attack Russians but because it will attack Russians when they will try to rape some woman in some NATO country.

He has no problem with a "day of a sledgehammer" (that video of a warcrime filmed by Russian soldiers themselves, where they murder a Syrian civilian with a sledgehammer) - because it's something Russians treat as a heroic deed.  To him his soldiers murder a Syrian Nazi, aka "the enemy". He will never get what's wrong with it, no matter how much you will try to explain it to him.

So don't try to think like a European when trying to argue with Russian.

Edited May 6, 2022 by kraze

[asurob]

13 minutes ago, kraze said:

You are all taking DMS way too seriously. He is Russian. His problem with NATO is that it prevents his soldiers from raping Poles and Lithuanians, not that it "expands" per se.

He is mad about Belgrade because Serbs had to pay for genocide they did instead of being admired as heroes like Russians treat their criminal grandfathers. If Serbs paid - that means Russians may pay too and he can't have that.

Because he knows what NATO is. It's a threat to him. But it's a threat not because it will attack Russians but because it will attack Russians when they will try to rape some woman in some NATO country.

He has no problem with a "day of a sledgehammer" (that video of a warcrime filmed by Russian soldiers themselves, where they murder a Syrian civilian with a sledgehammer) - because it's something Russians treat as a heroic deed.  To him his soldiers murder a Syrian Nazi, aka "the enemy". He will never get what's wrong with it, no matter how much you will try to explain it to him.

So don't try to think like a European when trying to argue with Russian.

Everything written here is true.

The Serbs were attacked and bombed because they were murdering and raping their neighbors.  

The Russians are now on the receiving end of NATO firepower (courtesy of Ukrainian soldiers) because they are murdering and raping their neighbors.

NATO is a defensive organization...that frustrates those who would invade their neighbors because there are consequences for their actions.  

Our good friend DMS believes that there should be no consequence for the invasion of Ukraine, the stealing of Donbass and Crimea a decade ago.  It should just be Russia's for reasons.

That's not how the world functions.  And Russia expected the world to let them do what they wanted yet again...not this time.  

[Haiduk]

Russian armor, destroyed by UKR air-assault troops

Russians reportedly withdrew from Lyptsi village further along the road Kharkiv - Tsyrkuny - Rus'ki Tyshky - Lyptsi - border

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Russian armor, destroyed by UKR air-assault troops

Russians reportedly withdrew from Lyptsi village further along the road Kharkiv - Tsyrkuny - Rus'ki Tyshky - Lyptsi - border

What I wonder is what happens when Ukrainian forces reach Russian border? Do Ukrainians continue to advance, at least untill a favorable positions are reached? Do Russians move freely on their side and counterattack at will wherever they want? 

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

What I wonder is what happens when Ukrainian forces reach Russian border? Do Ukrainians continue to advance, at least untill a favorable positions are reached? Do Russians move freely on their side and counterattack at will wherever they want? 

This has already happened in some sectors before hasn't it?  I wondered the same, assume it's 'stop at the border' but if someone is firing at you...