How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

UAF claiming to have freed a sizeable area in the Karkhiv offensive so far, which looks like it includes the whole T-21-04 road from Karkhiv to Staryi Saltiv

EDIT I was ninja'd by @Huba

Edited May 6, 2022 by TheVulture

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, Degsy said:

Interesting Youtube discussion from 3rd May about Ukraine with  US generals McMaster and Hodges (former commander of USAEUR). They talk about amongst other things, the likelihood of nuclear escalation, Russian performance so to date, the lack of Rus cyber warfare so far, the surprisingly long lead time for US manufacturers to produce fresh systems like Javelin, and perceived failings on the Ukrainian side. Those failings were seen as weak logistics chains, taking too much time to activate the TDF, and lack of ammunition for the Russian legacy 122 and 152 arty.  You can judge their conclusion from the title of the vid, but they make the point that it's going to be long and bloody road to get there.

"Ukraine is going to end up winning" - McMaster and Hodges discussion.

Very good discussion

[Huba]

Just now, TheVulture said:

UAF claiming to have freed a sizeable area in the Karkhiv offensive so far, which looks like it includes the whole T-21-04 road from Karkhiv to Staryi Saltiv

EDIT I was ninja'd by @Huba

The size of recaptured area is comparable to the whole Russian Izyum salient, that took them 2 months of fighting to establish

[Taranis]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

The size of recaptured area is comparable to the whole Russian Izyum salient, that took them 2 months of fighting to establish

What a new !

[Haiduk]

Russians launched offensive on Severodonetsk city from three directions. Most fierce fight is near Voyevodyne village between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Also Russians is trying to cross Siverskyi Donets river in Kreminna area to make bridghead for offensive on Lysychansk and Siversk

Reportedly Russians moved elements of 331st regiment of 98th VDV division and elements of 76th VDV division from Izium to Kreminna - Lyman direction

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

"Tanks of pro-Russian separatist forces near Novoazovsk, Donetsk region, May 6, 2022. ALEXANDER YERMOCHENKO / REUTERS" * T-72B

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Russians launched offensive on Severodonetsk city from three directions. Most fierce fight is near Voyevodyne village between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Also Russians is trying to cross Siverskyi Donets river in Kreminna area to make bridghead for offensive on Lysychansk and Siversk

Reportedly Russians moved elements of 331st regiment of 98th VDV division and elements of 76th VDV division from Izium to Kreminna - Lyman direction

 

Damn, let's hope Ukrainians manage to hold. Those 2 tank brigades moved there recently might just come in handy now...

[The_Capt]

59 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yeah, and much respect to you as a better Canadian than me. It's pretty clear from reading your stuff that you could have made a lot of money with your brainpower in the private sector, but instead you chose to serve the country. Many thanks.

....So service and self sacrifice comes naturally to you, of course, which is the spirit in which I read your response after thinking about it. But that makes you an exception.

And if I can't have a million courageous martyrs, I'll settle for a million bright pragmatical cowards like me (lol) voting with their feet and not being part of the machine.

Peace out!

Well thank you but I am not sure how much is "self-sacrifice" and how much is "institutionalized beyond repair". Do something since you were 18 for long enough and it just becomes too hard to adapt to anything else.  This is what made CMCW such a big deal for me personally as I finally saw daylight somewhere else, granted not that far from the homestead, but I will take it.

In my experience, a lot of people in my business are not as brave as we think we are, while "pragmatical cowards" are a lot braver than they think.  Foot voting, is in itself a form of resistance that takes a lot of guts too.

"Peace" indeed.  

[FancyCat]

Medvedev has published a new telegram post accusing Poland of preparing to seize Western Ukraine, something they have been spouting for a bit now. 

 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Medvedev has published a new telegram post accusing Poland of preparing to seize Western Ukraine, something they have been spouting for a bit now. 

 

Well we could fight stupid with stupid and claim that Russia has taken the Crimea with intent to hand it back over to the Mongols: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Khanate

Edit: Actually if one looks at the map, this entire operation is an attempt to take back the Khanate:

Knew it, Putin is a Mongolian puppet...Checkmate!

Edited May 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[DMS]

18 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Ideas like partitioning Russia, disarmament of nuclear weapons are just fantasy ideas, and not entertained seriously by anyone in government in the West or Ukraine. I would suggest anyone talking seriously here should explain how this is possible, yes Russia can't win a war against Ukraine, but certainly crushing internal revolts and dissent is well within the wheelhouse. 

 

Surely it's a long process. LongLeftFlank brightly described it here. Mix of bribing elites, soft power, sabotage, new proxy wars. It will work someday. NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller. Some politicians tried to stop it and were overthrown with ease. Russia is bigger than other countries, but as LongLeftFlank said, it weakens. At some point new intervention, like in 1918, is possible. Not open invasion, but some sort of proxy war, using bribed local elites, during political crisis. Nothing impossible.

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

... I'd be very interested in your thoughts/ criticisms on the above, since you seem unafraid to express them here.

This is quite possible while Russia has this type of economic system. If it won't be changed, country will fall. It's ironic that you don't like Putin, but to throw off Russia from the table you need him to stay. You are a bit too optimistic (№7,8 - really?), but long term trend is correct. 

18 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Why should an average Russian trust the West

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well we could fight stupid with stupid and claim that Russia has taken the Crimea with intent to hand it back over to the Mongols: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Khanate

Edit: Actually if one looks at the map, this entire operation is an attempt to take back the Khanate:

Knew it, Putin is a Mongolian puppet...Checkmate!

Well if there's anyone with legitimate claim to Moscow, it is the Mongols. Maybe Poles and French too...

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, DMS said:

Surely it's a long process. LongLeftFlank brightly described it here. Mix of bribing elites, soft power, sabotage, new proxy wars. It will work someday. NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller. Some politicians tried to stop it and were overthrown with ease. Russia is bigger than other countries, but as LongLeftFlank said, it weakens. At some point new intervention, like in 1918, is possible. Not open invasion, but some sort of proxy war, using bribed local elites, during political crisis. Nothing impossible.

This is quite possible while Russia has this type of economic system. If it won't be changed, country will fall. It's ironic that you don't like Putin, but to throw off Russia from the table you need him to stay. You are a bit too optimistic (№7,8 - really?), but long term trend is correct. 

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya.

"We liked you until you stopped Slobodan Milosevic's ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia" is not the own Russians may think it is.

[Huba]

Just now, DMS said:

Surely it's a long process. LongLeftFlank brightly described it here. Mix of bribing elites, soft power, sabotage, new proxy wars. It will work someday. NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller. Some politicians tried to stop it and were overthrown with ease. Russia is bigger than other countries, but as LongLeftFlank said, it weakens. At some point new intervention, like in 1918, is possible. Not open invasion, but some sort of proxy war, using bribed local elites, during political crisis. Nothing impossible.

You see, that's the fundamendal flaw in the whole Russian perception of the world. NATO is not moving to the east, it is invited, sometimes desperately begged to come, cause the alternative is living in ruski mir, which really really sucks, in any imaginable aspect.

Also, nobody is really there to get you. Nobody really cares, all we want is for Russian Empire/ USSR/ Russia to piss off and stop being a problem. 

[DesertFox]

Anyone any hints, what this might be?

 

 

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya.

No surpsises here. I guess it really is too much to ask of you to acknowledge war crimes of your own soldiers today when you cannot even acknowledge genocide from decades ago.

[mosuri]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well if there's anyone with legitimate claim to Moscow, it is the Mongols. Maybe Poles and French too...

Swedes should claim the lot, including Ukraine (it's all Rurik's fault anyway)

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya.

I understand. Also the initial aftermath of the collapse of Soviet Union and the unrestrcited opening to the West didnt really help I guess. 

One thing I haven't clear up about that period. Did Putin really asked to join NATO back then, and got turned down? Or is it an urban myth.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile @akd

Lt.colonel Fyodor Solovyov, commander of 872nd SP-howitzer regiment of 127th motor-rifle division, 5th CAA Eastern Military District

 

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Russian MLRS strikes UA S300. Quite impressive:

 

Rough count, about 32 impacts. One was a direct hit. Reference the hit on the Russian HQ north of Izyum, the odds given of hitting the HQ building (or, the assumed HQ building) by random chance was given as 2 or 3%. Or so I remember it.  The argument was that it had to be a guided weapon to hit that building.

Looking at the above video, what are the odds of a direct hit on the launcher? Yet, that's what occurred...

 

[Huba]

Just now, Kraft said:

No surpsises here. I guess it really is too much to ask of you to acknowledge war crimes of your own soldiers today when you cannot even acknowledge genocide from decades ago.

Scholz, of all people, declared that lifting sanctions from Russia will be solely an Ukrainian decision, and I imagine it being dependent on cooperation in warcrimes trials. Even after ceasfire Russia will have a huge problem - either admits it was wrong, apologize and repent (can anybody imagine that, really?) or suffer a prolonged decline.

 

2 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Swedes should claim the lot, including Ukraine (it's all Rurik's fault anyway)

Now now, just to be clear, Polish Mieszko the 1st was NOT a Swede, please disregard all the scholars who claim otherwise  

[DMS]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

No surpsises here. I guess it really is too much to ask of you to acknowledge war crimes of your own soldiers today when you cannot even acknowledge genocide from decades ago.

Why do you react in this way? That is how it is. Why do you write it to me, must I travel to the past and convince people not to be scared of bombings? 

Edited May 6, 2022 by DMS

[DMS]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

One thing I haven't clear up about that period. Did Putin really asked to join NATO back then, and got turned down? Or is it an urban myth.

Putin said that he asked Clinton in 2000, but he reacted "coldly". 

Edited May 6, 2022 by DMS

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya

This one is just odd.  So NATO only bombed Belgrade during the Kosovo War of '99.  The justification was, wait for it...war crimes!  See a trend here?  After Rawanda, we in the west kinda got sick and tired of 20th century genocides in the 90's (arguably we went back to not really caring a couple decades later: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rohingya_genocide) so when the Serbs began "doing that ethnic cleansing" thing again, it was a pretty short "nope" from the UN and NATO.

I am not sure why Russia would take that as an attack on them, they were on the UNSC that drafted resolution 1199 which kicked the whole thing off.  I am at loss at what either Chechen War had to do with us, but hey why not?

Look this whole NATO expansion thing was arguably a bad idea but the Russian's seem to think it was a deliberate plan.  Seriously, we should let you guys come work in NATO for a day and you would quickly see that "deliberate" and "NATO" are not mutually supporting concepts.  NATO is fine at blowing stuff up, but detailed strategic campaigning is not a virtue I think anyone could accuse NATO of being adept at conducting.  Finally, all those former satellite states came to NATO for a good reason...what is happening in Ukraine right now.  Trust me, it is not them or us, it is you.

Russia is acting like a drunken wife beater, pissed off because Ukraine "made you hit them" and blaming city council for all these damned "assault charges"; an entire nation in need of anger management counselling and couples therapy.

I got to believe Russians are better than this. 

[womble]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller.

Open your eyes. The only reason all those former WP nations wanted to join NATO was because...

Russia was a clear, obvious threat to them.

If they weren't in NATO, they'd be annexed now, like Crimea. Look at Sweden and Finland. Sweden has been an officially neutral country since '45, even though their social and political make up suits them ideally to be members of the NATO bloc. But they've ploughed their own furrow until Russia started making actual moves westward. And now Russia thinks that threatening people who're looking for shelter from their threats is a great way of persuading them that they don't need to worry about the threats. It's the politics of imbeciles.

If Russia hadn't been an existential threat to the Baltic states and Poland and Romania and Czechia and Slovakia and Hungary would not have felt the need to shackle themselves to the defensive alliance which comes with only obligations (if you aren't going to be attacked), not concrete benefits (those largely come from EU membership).

The former Warsaw Pact countries would no doubt have rather ignored their military and "beat their swords into ploughshares". But Russia has always loomed large as the object lesson that "them as beat their swords into ploughshares end up ploughing for them as don't".

Start, as we in the West do, by assuming anything your Government tells you is a lie (or, if you want to be generous, a self-serving shading of the facts on the ground). Your problem seems to be that you only have Government organs telling you anything, so you've nothing to fill in the gaps that ignoring the Government's lies leaves. We over here in the free world (you're not in that, by the way, though you'd be welcome) have the option of listening to other sources. Sometimes, those sources confirm what the Government is telling us, and that does make life easier when that's the case.

Oh, wait: you've access to this forum. Read it. Judge how the information is being presented. Draw your own conclusions.