How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Some news from Kharkiv/Izium areas

UKR forces after yesteraday's attack pushed off Russian troops from Rus'ka Lozova north from Kharkiv. Decisive role in seizeng of this large village played SOF units. 

The map corresponds to yesterday's news that UKR forces in proces of libaration of this village. Now it already cleaned up. 

On Izium axis Russians today didn't condut active offensive actions, but they actively used recon units and shelled our positions with artilery

Our soldier has written from there: we have a madhouse for third day. Russians are jamming GSM comms. There were more rockets for these three days than for all days before. Artilley works endlessly. Orcs rod from all slits, they are being driven to slaugter, but we are also losing good boys.... 

Several videos from Izium axis from Roman Donik:

UKR artillery struck Russian armor near Topolske village 

UKR Grad hit rear control post of Russian BTGnear Zabavne village (6 km north from Izium). Rear control post is a second control post in battalion's rear, where places all logistic, supply and maintenance units as well as part of battalion HQ, respondining for theese units

  

   

Edited April 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Good points. But the ultimatum could be given in secret first, before the liberation of eastern Ukraine becomes imminent, with a threat that it will later be made in public. Such a message might shape western decision making for their desired end game.

In any case, the main point was: What will Nato do in case of a publicly stated threat like that?

I guess it does make sense for NATO to declare a sort of "stop line" for any Ukrainian advance beyond which western support would immediately cease. I can imagine something like this has already been declared to Zelensky behind closed doors.

For nuclear threats against "the West" specifically, to stop weapons shipments, I really couldn't imagine how this would even work or be declared in practice. The problem is that Russia is already now accepting western weapons shipments without really reacting to them. So the escalation would be firmly on them. It's not like during the Cuban missile crisis, where you have some kind of naval exclusion zone that clearly shows one side stepping over the line, so to speak.

What if NATO countries just declare that they stop, but western systems mysteriously still turn up in Ukraine? Would Russia just nuke Poland or Turkey then? This wouldn't really work from a communications perspective. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Battlefront.com]

I'm posting this with a request to not turn it into attempts to score political points.  The reason I'm posting this is further below...

Here's some more detailed coverage:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/biden-announces-legislative-proposals-crack-120000826.html

And the most relevant bit here:

Quote

The legislative proposal would streamline the process for the forfeiture of property owned by Russian oligarchs and create a new criminal offense that would make it illegal for a person to knowingly or intentionally possess proceeds obtained directly from corrupt dealings with the Russian government.

What this proposal does, for the very first time ever, is to put elicit Russian government money ("corrupt dealings") into the same category as crime cartel money.  Folks, this is a hugely effective way to undercut Russian influence campaigns designed to strengthen Russia at the expense of its foes.

I hope this passes.  I hope other nations pass something similar.  The result could be a major decline in Russian influence peddling post-war because, up until now, it was mostly legal and therefore hard to combat.

Steve

 

[DesertFox]

Now this is some low altitude flying...

 

 

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, that might explain some of the wide misses that have been noted.  IIRC back in those days guidance was all based on estimated times for it to get from A to B.  The missile would stay on a fixed compass heading for that amount of time then change paths to another heading for another predesignated amount of time.  Time per leg could be adjusted inflight by comparing actual airspeed to what was used in the calculation, either decreasing or increasing as needed.  If this sounds pretty iffy to you... correct!  This is why they tried to fly these things in straight lines and as few as possible.

At least that's how I remember this old stuff.

Steve

Well, certainly not an expert, but I would guess inertial guidance instead of simple dead reckoning?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Sburke counts only high-ranked officers not less than mayor :). I posted yesterday all appropriate officers from this list 

Ha I am usually going to this guys list these days.  It seems very complete and up to date.

what he lacks is unit information.

KIA/WIA/MIA Officer list - Google Drive

[Ultradave]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm getting the feeling that the age of the average M113 supporter might be older than the vehicle itself.  Just throwing that out there

Steve

Not quite but certainly in the ballpark. I just think that if they get sent a whole bunch, they can be useful, as long as they are careful what they do with them.

Dave

[Vacillator]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

KIA/WIA/MIA Officer list - Google Drive

Nice spreadsheet, the first tab needs a few more entries on the left hand side .

[Haiduk]

Situation around Lyman

UKR trops blew up railroad bridge between Lyman and Raihorodok (SW from Lyman). Road bridge still stand for a while. Russian troops assault Shandryholove village 

 

[Ultradave]

19 hours ago, sross112 said:

Or maybe form independent arty BN's to be assigned to regional support?

I think of your choices, I like this one. A battalion of artillery is serious firepower, and I think they are being sent 3-4 battalions worth? So if those were separate from each other or clustered in twos, that makes the logistics a little better, especially as they are on interior lines. Ammo resupply shouldn't be *too* bad.

IMO spreading them out a battery here and another there is probably asking for trouble - maintenance, resupply, spare parts, consolidation if there are losses.

A battalion still needs to be locally dispersed to avoid counter battery fire taking out a large number. A battalion is 3 firing batteries, plus a HQ and HQ Battery (HHB), that includes ammo train, admin, S-3 (Ops), Bn FDC, and a target acquisition element (for counter battery intel). That's quite a bit of stuff but it's more or less self sufficient.

Dave

[acrashb]

Now that artillery is getting some traction and being shipped - what is the stuff attached to the bottom of the muzzle break? Looks like a towing attachment, but towing artillery by the barrel strikes me as a bad idea?

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by acrashb

[Hapless]

Just now, acrashb said:

Now that artillery is getting some traction and being shipped - what is the stuff attached to the bottom of the muzzle break?

Bayonet lug.

More seriously, the bit in the middle looks like a muzzle reference device. On tanks, it collects data about the gun barrel (like, how much it's bending due to heat expansion on the sunward side) to feed back to the fire control system to maintain accuracy, I'd imagine it's the same sort of thing.

[Kraft]

38 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ha I am usually going to this guys list these days.  It seems very complete and up to date.

what he lacks is unit information.

KIA/WIA/MIA Officer list - Google Drive

Where can I find the asterisk Note of concern information in that sheet?

Edited April 29, 2022 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

New update from northern direction of Kharkiv. After liberation of Kutuzivka and Rus'ka Lozova, UKR troops libarated Momotove village next to Kutuzivka. Looks like next step should be big operation for destroying of strong Russian group in Tsyrkuny and around. Reportedly, HQ of this group located in Rus'ki Tyshky village. So minimal objective can be Tsyrkuny, maximum - complete cut off enemy group on the road section Tsyrkuny - Rus'ki Tyshky

Our soldier writes, Russians have fortified positions in Tsyrkuny, their tanks have positions in houses or dugged in hull down position. Tsyrkuny area since March is a headache for Kharkiv - exactly from this place Russians still have opportunity to shell the city with artillery, causing damage and casualties among civilians. 

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vacillator]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR trops blew up railroad bridge between Lyman and Raihorodok (SW from Lyman). Road bridge still stand for a while.

Why blow the rail bridge first and not the road?  Seems like a train was on it?

[Ultradave]

11 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Now that artillery is getting some traction and being shipped - what is the stuff attached to the bottom of the muzzle break? Looks like a towing attachment, but towing artillery by the barrel strikes me as a bad idea?

 

The extended part is indeed for towing. Not sure about the rear facing rods and little boresight looking thingy.

Search for M777 being towed and you'll find some pics in towing mode.

Dave

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Where can I find the asterisk Note of concern information in that sheet?

not sure.  Maybe some initial concern that report was accurate?  Maybe not going back and removing once confirmation received.

[Ultradave]

23 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I think of your choices, I like this one. A battalion of artillery is serious firepower, and I think they are being sent 3-4 battalions worth? So if those were separate from each other or clustered in twos, that makes the logistics a little better, especially as they are on interior lines. Ammo resupply shouldn't be *too* bad.

IMO spreading them out a battery here and another there is probably asking for trouble - maintenance, resupply, spare parts, consolidation if there are losses.

A battalion still needs to be locally dispersed to avoid counter battery fire taking out a large number. A battalion is 3 firing batteries, plus a HQ and HQ Battery (HHB), that includes ammo train, admin, S-3 (Ops), Bn FDC, and a target acquisition element (for counter battery intel). That's quite a bit of stuff but it's more or less self sufficient.

Dave

After saying all that there is one caveat I should have added. It’s going to depend a lot on the maneuver commander’s plans, and how he wants to operate. But if I was advising that’s what I’d recommend. 

[Machor]

25 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Looks like a towing attachment, but towing artillery by the barrel strikes me as a bad idea?

And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

[acrashb]

18 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

The extended part is indeed for towing. Not sure about the rear facing rods and little boresight looking thingy.

Search for M777 being towed and you'll find some pics in towing mode.

Dave

Cool, learned something new.

3 minutes ago, Machor said:

And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

 

I'm amazed, as the barrel is the part that needs to, at least, remain straight.  

Thanks!

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, acrashb said:

the barrel is the part that needs to, at least, remain straight.  

That D-30 pic shows it being towed not by the barrel.  Whereas the first pic (assume it's an M777) is being towed by the barrel.

[Battlefront.com]

More homemade bomber footage.  Supposedly from 503rd Marines Battalion

Steve

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Cool, learned something new.

I'm amazed, as the barrel is the part that needs to, at least, remain straight.  

Thanks!

I'd have guessed that towing it by the barrel is probably better in that regard, since the barrels are pretty long. The strain on the barrel from towing the weight of the gun is relatively small and mostly along the length of the gun, which is the direction it is strongest in.

Towing it the other way around would have the gun's wheels close to the towing connection, which means that the barrel could easily swing sideways much wider than you'd expect (unlike towing by the barrel, where the whole carriage will just follow the truck). This could easily lead to the barrel taking hard lateral blows close to the muzzle, which is the situation most likely to bend the whole barrel or flatten the tube out of being cylindrical, both of which could be catastrophic.

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I'd have guessed that towing it by the barrel is probably better in that regard, since the barrels are pretty long. The strain on the barrel from towing the weight of the gun is relatively small and mostly along the length of the gun, which is the direction it is strongest in.

Towing it the other way around would have the gun's wheels close to the towing connection, which means that the barrel could easily swing sideways much wider than you'd expect (unlike towing by the barrel, where the whole carriage will just follow the truck). This could easily lead to the barrel taking hard lateral blows close to the muzzle, which is the situation most likely to bend the whole barrel or flatten the tube out of being cylindrical, both of which could be catastrophic.

That makes sense.

[acrashb]

6 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

That D-30 pic shows it being towed not by the barrel.

I thought so at first.  But if you look at the orange-painted tow ring, it's attached to the hitch on the truck and nothing else is.