How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

30 minutes ago, Probus said:

The HIMARS rocket systems the USA is giving Ukraine are totally capable of hitting targets deep in Russia. My jury is still out on if they should.

I would think that they should stick to military targets initially. I'm sure there are some good radars, aa assets, airfields, logistics nodes and marshalling areas that would keep them busy for awhile. Black Sea Fleet assets in port? As for non military only infrastructure they should probably boil the frog on that. One a day or every other day and ratchet up from there. Isolated targets initially over a broad area and then closer in to populated areas as time goes by.

[The_MonkeyKing]

What is the real combat value of SPAAG today? Especially Flakpanzer Gepard?

- These type of system are pretty rare in the west. (medium range AA is rare in general in the west)
- Most of these systems are from 60-70s. (but so are many other proven systems, matter of upgrades)
- Is this a real capability jump from MANPADS?
- Can these pre-drone radars even target smallish drones?

Range is similar to MANPAD, Cannot hit an evasive targets that far off, has a radar signature, complex and expensive system to maintain and operate and why am I not seeing many new SPAAG systems out there? (or even upgraded ones)

I am having hard time finding sources.

[keas66]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

What is the real combat value of SPAAG today? Especially Flakpanzer Gepard?

- These type of system are pretty rare in the west. (medium range AA is rare in general in the west)
- Most of these systems are from 60-70s. (but so are many other proven systems, matter of upgrades)
- Is this a real capability jump from MANPADS?
- Can these pre-drone radars even target smallish drones?

Range is similar to MANPAD, Cannot hit an evasive targets that far off, has a radar signature, complex and expensive system to maintain and operate and why am I not seeing many new SPAAG systems out there? (or even upgraded ones)

I am having hard time finding sources.

I'm getting the strong impression no-one expects them to be used  - especially the German Powers that be . I guess the bigger question is how much longer is Germany going to be allowed to backslide her way out of committing to the cause ?

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

So about Transnistria, let's assume Putin has asked and gotten them to militarily pursue objectives. Would it be expansion of it's territory into Moldovan controlled regions? Expansion into Ukraine? Assume a defensive position with intent to tie down further Ukrainian forces? Sortie into Odessa?

Whatever they chose - Ukraine will immediately retaliate. Even if they try to attack Moldova for whatever reason.

They are already in a defensive position tying down Ukrainian forces there, since 8 years ago. But they won't tie down any more forces because they cannot get reinforcements from anywhere (unless russians drop tanks and BMPs from space).

TL;DR: Transnistria is completely surrounded by very hostile people.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Alexander Okruzhnov, senior artillery officer in VDV 104th Air Assault Regiment:

 

Lt. Col. Oleg Evseev, 291st (not 281st, as indicated below) Artillery Brigade:

 

Think this one may already be on list: Major Yegor Sannikov, artillery officer (?)

 

Since I've been sent on a vacation quite recently because of my bloodthirsty remarks about deceased Russians, I will refrain from that. But very...interesting.

[chrisl]

31 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

- Can these pre-drone radars even target smallish drones?

I looked up a few, and most of them use short enough wavelengths for tracking that they can, at least in principle, target smallish drones, but that depends on first acquiring them with a search radar.  The search radars look like they're usually longer wavelength, though some of them (e.g. Dutch version of Gepard in X band) are short enough that they could detect the engine on even a very small drone.  But that's just based on the resolution.  I'd be surprised if any of the smaller drones reflected enough signal for the search radars to find them reliably, especially if even minor attempts at stealthifying them were made.

Edited April 26, 2022 by chrisl

[LongLeftFlank]

A friend of mine who's in a position to know tells me over a thousand British specialists have embedded with UA since March. A lot of them passed through previously as advisers post 2014 and have volunteered to 'retire' and contract in because they believe in . Only the Kurds command a comparable degree of respect.

A fair number of French SOFers there as well.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

A friend of mine who's in a position to know tells me over a thousand British specialists have embedded with UA since March. A lot of them passed through previously as advisers post 2014 and have volunteered to 'retire' and contract in because they believe in . Only the Kurds command a comparable degree of respect.

A fair number of French SOFers there as well.

And there is, last I saw, a vague report of at least 500 US trainers there too.  For sure there are a LOT of Westerners in the country helping in an unofficial capacity.

This is a game that Russia knows well.  Plenty of Soviet trainers were participating in every conflict the US was involved in during the Cold War.  And there's some sources that show that Russians were helping the Taliban.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

A friend of mine who's in a position to know tells me over a thousand British specialists have embedded with UA since March. A lot of them passed through previously as advisers post 2014 and have volunteered to 'retire' and contract in because they believe in . Only the Kurds command a comparable degree of respect.

A fair number of French SOFers there as well.

I would not be surprised in the least if the cafeteria at UA HQ looks like the bar scene from Casablanca.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

The HIMARS rocket systems the USA is giving Ukraine are totally capable of hitting targets deep in Russia. My jury is still out on if they should. If they do decide to, they should creep the fire in daily to scare/psych the Russians into  thinking they are losing ground day by day. Bryansk was 50% the distance between Kiev and Moscow. 50%, 60%, 70%,... distance to Moscow daily is very ominous and paints a very negative picture for moral purposes. 

Also, lots of sabotage/coincidences occurring in Russia right now. Is anyone keeping track of the attacks on Russian soil? Also the method(s) used in the attacks?

A note to all you... do not believe a damned thing that zerohedge says.  They are an alt-right wing site with extremely strong ties to Russian disinformation campaigns.  It is often part of conspiracy theory echo chambers.  It is unknown how deep the ties go with Russia, but it gets its money from somewhere so there is that.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A note to all you... do not believe a damned thing that zerohedge says.  They are an alt-right wing site with extremely strong ties to Russian disinformation campaigns.  It is often part of conspiracy theory echo chambers.  It is unknown how deep the ties go with Russia, but it gets its money from somewhere so there is that.

Steve

Over on the left, NakedCapitalism has gone similarly far up their own posteriors, and no, Putin isn't funding them.

People, even smart ones, don't need to be bribed or brainwashed to believe 'alternative facts'. They cherry pick them because they work backwards from a certain world view.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Over on the left, NakedCapitalism has gone similarly far up their own posteriors, and no, Putin isn't funding them.

People, even smart ones, don't need to be bribed or brainwashed to believe 'alternative facts'. They cherry pick them because they work backwards from a certain world view.

And that would be why we built this little chapel in the middle of all this, to try and navigate as true as course as we can.  So far I gotta say our record is not bad...once we got past the whole Ukrainian Bio Black Sites/the CIA can hear me through my fillings, unpleasantness. 

[Phantom Captain]

This! 

[dan/california]

 

8 hours ago, Fernando said:

The New Yoork Times has interviewed Gerhard Schröder. Unfortunately it is behind a paywall. Is there a way to read it for free?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

I read it, the short version is everybody took the Russians money. The only thing I regret is Putin rejecting my advice on Ukraine, and no I am not sorry, or giving the money back.

[keas66]

Interesting few threads in the Boardgame geek forums for the "NextWar"  series from GMT .

"NextWar-Poland" from GMT was a pretty recent release  ( 2017 ? ) but based a lot of its counter values off  previous ideas/prejudices about Russian unit effectiveness . Folks working through whats is happening right now versus whats in game  .

https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2848231/possible-lessons-war-ukraine

 

[Holien]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a game that Russia knows well.  Plenty of Soviet trainers were participating in every conflict the US was involved in during the Cold War.  And there's some sources that show that Russians were helping the Taliban.

Karma is paying back years of crap from Russia let’s hope it's a game changer. 

As for our British Defence minister I do wish he would keep his gob shut on stuff like that, he didn't need to say it, even if I or most folk have no problem with how Ukraine uses the weapons to win the war.

I wish our politicians would take some lessons from the Baltic countries or others keeping what they are upto closer to their chests. No need for propaganda own goals. 

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Over on the left, NakedCapitalism has gone similarly far up their own posteriors, and no, Putin isn't funding them.

People, even smart ones, don't need to be bribed or brainwashed to believe 'alternative facts'. They cherry pick them because they work backwards from a certain world view.

For sure, but if you followed Zerohedge when it started in 2014 they were often leading the English language with Russian disinformation points.  It could have been complete coincidence, of course, but we do know that Russia spends a lot of money covertly funding exactly this sort of activity.

In any case, it doesn't matter if Russia pays these guys to spout off nonsense or not.  The point is they spout off nonsense.  They are not a reliable source of information.

Steve

[Kinophile]

FWIW, Gepard is a tank. Just not an MBT.

It would certainly be useful protecting Dniper bridges.

This leads to my real point -

It seems agreed that the UA in its current semi-NATO/becoming NATO firm is able to stand up to and knock back the RA, operationally and tactically.

It's real strategy weakness are it's S/LOCs. In theory it has the advantage of interior LOCs - but they are long, vulnerable to air attack along their entire length (western border to Eastern front lines) choke-pointed by the Dniper bridges and seemingly not fully stood-up yet.

I posit that no real operational level UKR counteroffensive will happen (and has not happened) until UA untangles and properly militarizes (organisationally, with sufficient AA/AD) that situation.

This long exposed tail probably will suck up a disproportionate amount of AA assets, further limiting what's available for immediate cover to any offensive.

[Huba]

33 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

It's real strategy weakness are it's S/LOCs. In theory it has the advantage of interior LOCs - but they are long, vulnerable to air attack along their entire length (western border to Eastern front lines) choke-pointed by the Dniper bridges and seemingly not fully stood-up yet.

I posit that no real operational level UKR counteroffensive will happen (and has not happened) until UA untangles and properly militarizes (organisationally, with sufficient AA/AD) that situation.

Could you explain how you came to this conclusion? My impression is that in general Ukrainian strategic lines of communications are really very secure, there are hardly any cases of attacks against railway/ road infrastructure like bridges, save for some random cruise missile here and there. Manned sorties outside of frontline area are rather unheard of.

Edit: as to how efficiently those are operated, I don't have any idea, my impression is that to a large degree railways operate on a peace footing ,with scheduled passenger trains etc. Given that military traffic should have priority, is it really that big compared to usual civilian one? Counting 1000 tons per day per brigade (probably an overestimation?) It does not sound like a lot, as least as far as just moving it West to East it is concerned. Actually managing the what to send where and when being another matter, same as transporting it from the railhead to the units.

Edited April 26, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Ukrainian soldiers captured near Yampil, which is just southeast of Lyman.  Supposedly from 79th Airmobile Brigade, if I'm reading this correctly.

Steve

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Rosgvardiya moving through Melitopol.  What is the flag on the BTR?

 

[keas66]

Interesting discussion on thedrive about difficulties  manufacturing additional stingers due to  outdated electronic components in original design  :

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/raytheon-is-unable-to-make-stinger-anti-aircraft-missiles-quickly-enough

[riptides]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rosgvardiya moving through Melitopol.  What is the flag on the BTR?

 

From twitter postings - "This is the Russian Guard riot police and a collaborator from Kabarda, such is their technique."

[Huba]

nvm

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, riptides said:

From twitter postings - "This is the Russian Guard riot police and a collaborator from Kabarda, such is their technique."

I figured it was somewhere in the Caucuses.  Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, got it.  Thanks.

Steve