How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

More on Moldova related topic. This is the only land connection Ukraine has with Budjak region that does not lead through  Moldovan territory.

 

[kraze]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

More on Moldova related topic. This is the only land connection Ukraine has with Budjak region that does not lead through  Moldovan territory.

 

Yes but neither do russian forces have access to southern Moldova with roads leading to Bilgorod-Dnistrovski.

So if they move through Moldova to attack that area - that land is a fair game, not to mention that whole Transnistria is a fair game - and russian forces are nowhere near Odessa, unless they drop them onto mined and reinforced beaches.

Transnistria itself doesn't have enough forces to do much harm, not to mention they need to defend their own occupied land.

[Huba]

Not to mention that Budjak coast is so defensible by itself that territorial defense guys would do with stones and sticks probably  No ports there too. Russians can try airdrops/ landings (not).

Seriously though it is just posturing and desperate attempt at putting pressure on Moldova I think.

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Not to mention that Budjak coast is so defensible by itself that territorial defense guys would do with stones and sticks probably  No ports there too. Russians can try airdrops/ landings (not).

Seriously though it is just posturing and desperate attempt at putting pressure on Moldova I think.

Yeah but Moldova declared itself "russian neutral" according to the definition posted above.

So not exactly sure what would they be pressuring Moldova for. Especially now that russians are incapable of starting any new war.

[BeondTheGrave]

4 hours ago, Taranis said:

Clashes in Rubizhne and Popasna of Luhansk region, Russian troops failing to advance

 

Germany to authorise tank deliveries to Ukraine: government sources

 

Germany to allow delivery of tanks to Ukraine
Germany will authorize the delivery of Gepard-type tanks to Ukraine, a government source announced on Tuesday. The details, and in particular the number of tanks, specialized in anti-aircraft defense, must be revealed during the day by the Minister of Defense, Christine Lambrecht, during a meeting on the American military base of Ramstein, in Germany, at the invitation from his American counterpart, according to this source. These vehicles would come from the stocks of the German defense industry.

This announcement constitutes a major turning point in the cautious policy followed so far by Berlin in its military support for kyiv.

Source : Le Monde


Le Monde talk about Gepard. I don't know if it's a confusion with Leopard or if it's add to the Leopard

I had thought that as part of a separate deal Germany was training Gepard crews for transfer to the UA. This might be the final stages of this deal (actual equipment transfer) mixed with the fact that everything to the media is TANK. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I had thought that as part of a separate deal Germany was training Gepard crews for transfer to the UA. This might be the final stages of this deal (actual equipment transfer) mixed with the fact that everything to the media is TANK. 

You mean that the German military is already training Gepard crews right now?

That would require forward thinking and initiative. 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Yeah but Moldova declared itself "russian neutral" according to the definition posted above.

So not exactly sure what would they be pressuring Moldova for. Especially now that russians are incapable of starting any new war.

Let's see what happens, I think their aim is a general **** stirring on Ukraine's rear. Or there's something going one that Moldova/ NATO side initiated themselves (however unlikely at this point).

[BeondTheGrave]

Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

You mean that the German military is already training Gepard crews right now?

That would require forward thinking and initiative. 

That had been my impression, but maybe I was incorrect? It was something I saw here maybe 500 pages ago  I think the initial proposal was around the end of March and said UA personnel were already traveling to learn the system. 

If its fake news I can delete the post, I tried looking a bit for an article about it but news feeds seem caught up in the new deal. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

That had been my impression, but maybe I was incorrect? It was something I saw here maybe 500 pages ago  I think the initial proposal was around the end of March and said UA personnel were already traveling to learn the system. 

If its fake news I can delete the post, I tried looking a bit for an article about it but news feeds seem caught up in the new deal. 

Hey, I'm not saying this isn't true, I just didn't read anything about that at the time. 

From my experiences with the German defense bureaucracy, I simply can't imagine this kind of long-term strategic planning.

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

You mean that the German military is already training Gepard crews right now?

That would require forward thinking and initiative. 

Additionally there is no german military personal capable to do any trainings. The Gepard was phased out 2012 in GER, BE and NL armies. Only army in NATO which still has them (older model) is Romania. So only personal capable to do trainings are either romanian soldiers or KMW (Producer) technicians.

[CHEqTRO]

They sent their favorite clown, so we can be sure that something is definitively going to happen in Transnistia (or at the very least they want us to think so)

 

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Alexander Okruzhnov, senior artillery officer in VDV 104th Air Assault Regiment:

 

Lt. Col. Oleg Evseev, 291st (not 281st, as indicated below) Artillery Brigade:

 

Think this one may already be on list: Major Yegor Sannikov, artillery officer (?)

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

They sent their favorite clown, so we can be sure that something is definitively going to happen in Transnistia (or at the very least they want us to think so)

 

 

Actually that might be the reason for this whole circus - giving the internal audience impression that war is expanding, we are going into WW3, etc. so it's easier to swallow the need for mobilization. Additionally it puts a bit of pressure on Ukraine/ West, even if marginal. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

[Probus]

The HIMARS rocket systems the USA is giving Ukraine are totally capable of hitting targets deep in Russia. My jury is still out on if they should. If they do decide to, they should creep the fire in daily to scare/psych the Russians into  thinking they are losing ground day by day. Bryansk was 50% the distance between Kiev and Moscow. 50%, 60%, 70%,... distance to Moscow daily is very ominous and paints a very negative picture for moral purposes. 

Also, lots of sabotage/coincidences occurring in Russia right now. Is anyone keeping track of the attacks on Russian soil? Also the method(s) used in the attacks?

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I had thought that as part of a separate deal Germany was training Gepard crews for transfer to the UA. This might be the final stages of this deal (actual equipment transfer) mixed with the fact that everything to the media is TANK. 

 

The definition is pretty loose.

 

Tank: an enclosed heavily armed and armored combat vehicle that moves on tracks.

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tank

 

[Huba]

Just now, Probus said:

The HIMARS rocket systems the USA is giving Ukraine are totally capable of hitting targets deep in Russia. My jury is still out on if they should. If they do decide to, they should creep the fire in daily to scare/psych the Russians into  thinking they are losing ground day by day. Bryansk was 50% the distance between Kiev and Moscow. 50%, 60%, 70%,... distance to Moscow daily is very ominous and paints a very negative picture for moral purposes. 

Also, lots of sabotage/coincidences occurring in Russia right now. Is anyone keeping track of the attacks on Russian soil? Also the method(s) used in the attacks?

Was the HIMARS finally confirmed? Any numbers given? I only recall the vague notions about delivering "long range artillery". 

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, Probus said:

Also, lots of sabotage/coincidences occurring in Russia right now. Is anyone keeping track of the attacks on Russian soil? Also the method(s) used in the attacks?

IIRC, so far we had:

• the strike on the Russian airbase in Millerovo, Rostov oblast (Tochka-U)
• an ammunitions depot in Belgorod (possibly Tochka-U)
• the Mi-24 attack on a fuel depot in Belgorod
• the attacks on fuel depots in Bryansk (possibly Bayraktar TB-2)
• various unexplained fires breaking out

[Probus]

Just now, Huba said:

Was the HIMARS finally confirmed? Any numbers given? I only recall the vague notions about delivering "long range artillery". 

I saw alleged video footage of them being loaded on trucks on their way to Ukraine. 

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

the attacks on fuel depots in Bryansk (possibly Bayraktar TB-2)

Impossible, since Bayraktar's maximum range is 300km (meaning in the best case scenario it's 150km there and 150km back, in reality it's probably considerably less than that). Bryansk is about 150km from the actual border and Bayraktar needs some kind of an airfield to launch from.

So it wasn't Bayraktar.

What it was? Maybe russians are trying to spread anti-Ukrainian moods (like they ever needed to) by blowing up their own criticial infrastructure not that far from Moscow or... maybe UK may have given you a hint-hint, nudge-nudge right after it all happened.

Edited April 26, 2022 by kraze

[FancyCat]

So about Transnistria, let's assume Putin has asked and gotten them to militarily pursue objectives. Would it be expansion of it's territory into Moldovan controlled regions? Expansion into Ukraine? Assume a defensive position with intent to tie down further Ukrainian forces? Sortie into Odessa?

[Der Zeitgeist]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Impossible, since Bayraktar's maximum range is 300km (meaning in the best case scenario it's 150km there and 150km back, in reality it's probably considerably less than that).

Nah. 300km is the range of the line-of-sight comms. The drone can fly much farther than that. 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Nah. 300km is the range of the line-of-sight comms. The drone can fly much farther than that. 

Theoretically it could've been ER-GMLRS shooting at max range. If those were sneaked into Ukraine already. Not probable, but not impossible.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Nah. 300km is the range of the line-of-sight comms. The drone can fly much farther than that. 

Especially when the comms link is pushed thru a US satellite...hypothetically. 

Wiki says range is 4000kms, which means with comms link ups the thing could hit Murmansk and return.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2

Doesn't matter though because the Russians have shot them all down...twice.

Edited April 26, 2022 by The_Capt