How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

I see a pattern of Russians attacking at night or is it my idea. This probably to reduce the effect of drones and AT infantry assets perhaps.

Also their air force less prone to shoulder launched AA missiles. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by panzermartin

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am just imagining what a dozen or so switchblades could do to a roadbound column.  Destroy the lead elements, blocking the road, then follow on vehicles go around, chewing up the ground and pretty soon things are bogged.  Friction and destruction.

For trucks 300 should be enough, 40mm grenade equivalent going through the windshield is going to ruin your day. The 600 with 40km range - we already had a talk about drone warfare, sounds really scary. There aren't numbers yet to use those as generously as UA would like probably, but as recon assets those should also be very useful. 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

If timed well, a Switchblade 300 hitting a tank could be enough to screw up an attack or get them to abandon their tanks.  Russians have shown themselves to be pretty panic prone.

Steve

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, acrashb said:

This is hopeful.  Countering it, stuff has to filter to the front volume of action and be integrated from a training and doctrine perspective.  I doubt that happens meaningfully in three days. So stuff the UA already knows about (Javelins) will be in play but stuff they are still learning (switchblades) maybe no so much.

I recall that the operators are already trained and deployed (to a degree at least), as Switchblade 300 was reportedly already used in combat. Those were included in the previous batch of american support. Now US is just sending more rounds AFAIK.

Let's see what happens, we'll probably see a first mass use of those in next few days.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine military spokesman confirmed multiple towns were retaken in the Kharkiv and Izyum areas:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/825117.html

Yes but which towns.

There's the rub...

[The_Capt]

Just now, Huba said:

For trucks 300 should be enough, 40mm grenade equivalent going through the windshield is going to ruin your day. The 600 with 40km range - we already had a talk about drone warfare, sounds really scary. There aren't numbers yet to use those as generously as UA would like probably, but as recon assets those should also be very useful. 

 

The Switchblade 600 were rumoured as the bulk of the package has the Javelin warhead onboard and has an 80km range one-way, that is the one that can shred Russia arty and engineering vehicles.

Whelp I guess we will see how things stand in 24-48.  My guess is the Russians will make gains but will likely bog down quickly as they get strung out.  This might be a micro-remake of the larger opening phase, multiple axis of advance trying to overwhelm, that get soaked up and stall.  If the Russians do encircle/link up, then the question will be, can they consolidate quickly and exploit it, or will they spend all their combat power just executing the “big push”?

Given the prep time, operational enabler/conditions superiority, and brittleness of the RA,  my money is on the UA.

[Lurb]

It's me or the terrain between Kremmina and Slovyansk as you get closer to the latter looks like night impassable on Google Maps? That meandering river, what looks like marshes, dense woods, very crappy roads. Seems like any attack on that axis would have to take a detour either north or south and cross plenty of chokepoints.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If timed well, a Switchblade 300 hitting a tank could be enough to screw up an attack or get them to abandon their tanks.  Russians have shown themselves to be pretty panic prone.

Steve

Depends on the level of precision operator can achieve, but yeah, I see those going down hatches etc. Imagine the psychological effect on the crews (and anybody really) after few attacks, when word gets around.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Depends on the level of precision operator can achieve, but yeah, I see those going down hatches etc. Imagine the psychological effect on the crews (and anybody really) after few attacks, when word gets around.

Just needs to hit the tank.  Even if it causes no damage, it will make a boom and jittery tankers who aren't expecting a boom tend to get more jittery

Steve

[dan/california]

My two cents, probably worth less than that. The initial invasion plan was basically thought up by Putin and the FSB, they literally didn't tell a fair bit of the army what was actually happening, and made a whole series catastrophic assumptions we have discussed exhaustively. The results were more or less catastrophic. What is happening now is the army's plan. They now have a realistic view of what their forces can do, and what the Ukrainians can do. Although Putin may be channeling his inner Hitler, and rushing things. So this time a round the basic plan is less likely to be just stupid, although depending on the aforementioned pressure from above it may be under resourced. Of course a more rational plan doesn't fix the now obvious problems with their doctrine, force structure, procurement, and and general tactical incompetence. Hopefully the bill the the Ukrainians have to stop it isn't unbearable.

Edited April 18, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

 

26 minutes ago, Lurb said:

It's me or the terrain between Kremmina and Slovyansk as you get closer to the latter looks like night impassable on Google Maps? That meandering river, what looks like marshes, dense woods, very crappy roads. Seems like any attack on that axis would have to take a detour either north or south and cross plenty of chokepoints.

Looks like between Lyman and Sloviansk there's only one road/ railway line through the forests and over the river. With UA advantage in infantry it does not look good.

I was wondering if Russians could bypass Sloviansk and just got north of it through the forests. There are few roads there, if they captured them, and be prepared to bridge the river (quite narrow there) with the rest of plan going more or less as Steve has proposed. Their flank from the side of Sloviansk would be protected by forest and river, and after emerging from the forests they could proceed through Siversk to Bakhmut. Does that make sense? Instead of converging on Sloviansk, the two phase one pincers would converge on Lyman and then proceeded south-east. 

I know they can't advance through those forests, but the same was said about Ardennes in 1940. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

 

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just needs to hit the tank.  Even if it causes no damage, it will make a boom and jittery tankers who aren't expecting a boom tend to get more jittery

Steve

Where there is a tank, there will be a fuel truck very soon. Seems more profitable to wait unless things are desperate. Though there is a lovely thought about catching the BTG commander with his head out of the hatch.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just needs to hit the tank.  Even if it causes no damage, it will make a boom and jittery tankers who aren't expecting a boom tend to get more jittery

Steve

I read a story from OIF that crew of an M1A1 didn't know they were hit by a sabot round until they stopped the tank and went out. With the vehicle rolling they were insulated from outside noise to a degree that they didn't even notice.

I have no tanking experience, but this sounds plausible. If the tank is not in combat though, but just standing there while crew sleeps does maintenance, that would work great for sure

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Lurb said:

It's me or the terrain between Kremmina and Slovyansk as you get closer to the latter looks like night impassable on Google Maps? That meandering river, what looks like marshes, dense woods, very crappy roads. Seems like any attack on that axis would have to take a detour either north or south and cross plenty of chokepoints.

Yes, and thank you for pointing that out.

The terrain between Lyman and Slovyansk is terrible for the attacker.  Pretty much everything you don't want to have a mech force go through is there.  Especially since Ukraine has been defending this area for 8 years and there's not any viable way to bypass the obstacles.  It's going to be a slaughter for the Russians coming from that direction.  But I suspect that won't stop them from trying.

More amenable is coming in from the northwest of Slovyansk.  For the most part it is straight with lots of fields instead of trees and obstacles.  Which is why I don't think Russia has much hope of quickly taking Slovyansk from the east without a significant investment from forces coming down from Izyum.

Steve

 

[MSBoxer]

Now that the eastern campaign has begun, how does the equation change if Belarus decides to move from the north?  Merely a distraction or a more serious concern?

Not saying I think this will happen, more of a theoretical question.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, MSBoxer said:

Now that the eastern campaign has begun, how does the equation change if Belarus decides to move from the north?  Merely a distraction or a more serious concern?

Not saying I think this will happen, more of a theoretical question.

I think that ship has sailed as well as the Muskova.  I think if Putin was going to get Lukashenko to go in it would have happened by now.  Since Russia's withdraw much of its forces from Belarus there's less threat for Putin to apply than he had last month.

Steve

[Fenris]

More grim drone footage, URK mortars(?) hitting an occupied farmhouse. (PSA there are wounded and dead in the clip)

 

[DesertFox]

Lvov

 

 

[chuckdyke]

Germany's offer more political than anything else. We look at it for two months before we see this outdated but still useful tank in action. 

 

[dan/california]

anybody got a clue what the Italians can ship in three days or less?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

More grim drone footage, URK mortars(?) hitting an occupied farmhouse. (PSA there are wounded and dead in the clip)

Yet another example of Russia's motto... "every man left behind'.

This looks like DPR unit being shot up by 54th Mech Brigade fighting west of Donetsk.  Given the snow it was probably several weeks ago.

Steve

[danfrodo]

and so it begins.  Let's see if I get this right:  Thrust from the east must go through terrible terrain and into well prepared defenses in depth just to get to the city it can't take on its own.  Thrust from the NW from Izyum currently has LOC threatened and the farther it goes the more it can be cut.  And from the south has to go through defenses that have been working for 8 years. 

Ukraine surely has defense in depth plus the ability to move its smaller units around quickly to continually ambush the extending russian lines.  Russia could choose to protect it's lines except that would further deplete their already depleted advancing units.  So RA doesn't have the mechanized infantry to safeguard its LOCs and attack at the same time I think.

The initial Russian arty probably did a lot of damage to fixed positions, but once the war goes more mobile their lack of coordination will not allow their arty to continue to be so effective, along w UKR mobility and hard to target small units. 

And it's muddy.  And raining. 

Hopefully there will be a serious thrashing that leads to significant RA collapse in various areas.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com

Reposting this handy map.

[Battlefront.com]

Our old buddy Igor Bezler is back in Ukraine.  Wouldn't it be nice if he never left it?

 

[Kinophile]

Lyman to Slovyansk is a death march.

Even the terrain from Khrestyshcho to Slovyansk is a wide, bare slope completely vulnerable to long range fires from S/SE of Slovyansk. Just take a gander at this rough panorama:

From google maps, here:

Anyone coming over that horizon is visible from ~5 km (at this spot, above pictured):

to ~10km at this spot:

Enjoy that long descent into hell, ****ers.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Kinophile