How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

Setting aside what Russia really wants, some of the "public" demands Russia has made of Ukraine could easily be met, and offering to do so in some ways could mess further with their international position.

Zelensky and co have "diplomatically" accepted the possibility of Neutrality, and their (entirely valid and reasonable) insistence on outside-party guarantees (which the initial Russian demand-for-public-consumption hadn't specifically excluded as a possibility) showed the Russians up as negotiators-in-bad-faith when it gained no traction in the talks.

For example, Ukraine could, potentially offer to add provisions similar to those the Germans have in their law, against celebrating Nazism, and then go further by including the humanitarian offenses of the CCCP in those measures. Would that mess with Russian heads enough to be worth putting on the table?

Continuing to shine light on Russia's mendacity is important in maintaining the support of the rest of the world, and building the global consensus that Russia is the Bad Guy to increase the chances of their further isolation.

[chuckdyke]

17 minutes ago, womble said:

against celebrating Nazism,

What sort of nonsense is this? Nazism according putin's definition whatever that is. In a democracy people with different political views can start their own political parties whether right or left wing. Tolerance is not in putin's dictionary. I refuse to write that name with a capital. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by chuckdyke

[kraze]

27 minutes ago, womble said:

For example, Ukraine could, potentially offer to add provisions similar to those the Germans have in their law, against celebrating Nazism, and then go further by including the humanitarian offenses of the CCCP in those measures. Would that mess with Russian heads enough to be worth putting on the table?

Dude you serious? Have you missed at least the last 8 years? Russian definition of being nazi is speaking Ukrainian. Literally. It's literally written by putin's own personal ideologist in that RIAN article like that. Nazis speak Ukrainian. Nazi ideology is having a Ukrainian passport. And their demands are for Ukrainians to cease existing - which is literally what "denazification" means.

Edited April 16, 2022 by kraze

[womble]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

What sort of nonsense is this?

What's "nonsense"?

• Russia's initial demands, on record, shouted to the world, included the "denazification" of Ukraine. They didn't define it in their official public governmental level communications to the rest of the world (including to Ukraine). If they were to officially stand up and say outright that their official governmental goals are those of elimination of the Ukrainian national identity, the nations that are vaccilating about accepting accusations of genocide would get shoved hard towards that acceptance.
• Germany has statutes which ban the celebration of Nazism, including definitions. Ukraine could, it seems to me, fairly happily adapt those definitions of what constitutes badness and broaden them to include the Soviet era atrocities and crimes against humanity. What Putin thinks Nazism means is irrelevant unless he states it, and if he does he shoots his gang's prospects of getting their yachts back in the face.
• Nazi is derived from the proper noun, so gets a capital letter, same as Soviet.
• Drawing attention to the nonsense that Russia spouts by proposing something "reasonable" that Russia then ignores or refuses or changes their demands is, I reckon, a part of keeping the narrative on Ukraine's side.

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Ukraine could, it seems to me, fairly happily adapt those definitions of what constitutes badness and broaden them to include the Soviet era atrocities and crimes against humanity.

You do know we did that a very long time ago? Like literally in 1996 when our Constitution was written? Any nazi symbols haven't stopped being a criminal offense for a second. Granted we included commies in there only 2015. Sadly.

Edited April 16, 2022 by kraze

[womble]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Dude you serious? Have you missed at least the last 8 years? Russian definition of being nazi is speaking Ukrainian. Literally. It's literally written by putin's own personal ideologist in that RIAN article like that. Nazis speak Ukrainian. Nazi ideology is having a Ukrainian passport. And their demands are for Ukrainians to cease existing - which is literally what "denazification" means.

It's not what the world sees, though, is it? Russia has been feeding the world more lies over the last however-long than the world has been fed truth. The equivalence "Ukraine==Nazi" isn't the public posture of the RF; it has to be dug out of other peoples' (who have no official position) op-ed pieces. Making the rest of the world see it in the diplomatic arena will only solidify Ukraine's position and weaken Russia's. Currently they have plausible deniability on the stance.

[chuckdyke]

The political principles of the National Socialist German Workers' Party is the official definition. Nothing to do with a country with a multi-party system. 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, womble said:

It's not what the world sees, though, is it? Russia has been feeding the world more lies over the last however-long than the world has been fed truth. The equivalence "Ukraine==Nazi" isn't the public posture of the RF; it has to be dug out of other peoples' (who have no official position) op-ed pieces. Making the rest of the world see it in the diplomatic arena will only solidify Ukraine's position and weaken Russia's. Currently they have plausible deniability on the stance.

The only reason anyone would use russian accusations of Ukraine being "nazi" is only to promote his own position. Be it on a political level (e.g. refusing to impose sanctions for russian occupation so money can be made with russians), on media level (only one side being so uncomfortably evil making those generic bad guys in movies look tame by comparison), on whatever level. No other reason.

Because for any sane person a country that shoots people in basements and rapes children in suburbs of another country accusing somebody else of being a nazi would just not fly.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, well, well. I guess that's another problem. Germany never cleared itself of it's DDR past properly. You can bet that the Stasi and the KGB left a web of their agents behind, who continued their treacherous activities. 

I think you spelled "Manuela Schwesig" wrong. 

[womble]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

You do know we did that a very long time ago? Like literally in 1996 when our Constitution was written? Any nazi symbols haven't stopped being a criminal offense for a second. Granted we included commies in there only 2015. Sadly.

No, didn't know that. Didn't know you'd included "commies" either. And I'm pretty sure I'm not alone. But thanks for making it clear to me.

So, my proposed "messing with" Putin's negotiating position isn't actually necessary. Just having the UKR's diplomatic corps, and thence UKR's champions in the diplomatic arena, make it absolutely clear that UKR already have these positions will improve UKR's position in the war of public opinion.

Just so you know, I've witnessed plenty of UK "patriots" grumbling that the Russian attack on Ukraine is "none of our business" and that we should be spending our treasure on our local problems. They're a vocal and belligerent minority, who our "Government" tends to listen to (see Brexit and shipping asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing). If BoJo the Clown gets too much of a whiff of that public opinion, you might find his position on keeping the NLAWs flowing starting to soften. That is why public opinion outside Russia and Ukraine matters.

[womble]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

The only reason anyone would use russian accusations of Ukraine being "nazi" is only to promote his own position.

Unfortunately, the propaganda that Russia has attached to Azov over the last few years has worked to insinuate doubt into "the West". There is misinterpretation of "dedicated patriotism", and smearing of reputation. So an interpretation of Azov as "Neo-Nazis" persists in some quarters, and suspicion that similar attitudes are more broadly held stems from that. In that light "denazification" seems less of a ridiculous claim to some, and gives a fig leaf for those who are only promoting their own position.

Of course, it's still nonsense. It's also a much milder interpretation of "Nazi" than Putin's personal ideology, and "people over here" really aren't aware of that. The atrocities committed by the forces around Kyiv are accepted as atrocities, but not as ideologically-driven methodical attempts at extirpation of a people, more ruthless political removal of potential obstacles, per the "kill lists" of civic leaders etc that were exposed at the very start of the war, or the excesses of badly disciplined, uncivilised kids.

That thread to the narrative still needs building, out in the world that hasn't seen it up close.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I think you spelled "Manuela Schwesig" wrong. 

Human rights, but also speaking mildly about the DDR and Putin. Yes, one to take a closer look at for sure.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Setting aside what Russia really wants, some of the "public" demands Russia has made of Ukraine could easily be met, and offering to do so in some ways could mess further with their international position.

Zelensky and co have "diplomatically" accepted the possibility of Neutrality, and their (entirely valid and reasonable) insistence on outside-party guarantees (which the initial Russian demand-for-public-consumption hadn't specifically excluded as a possibility) showed the Russians up as negotiators-in-bad-faith when it gained no traction in the talks.

For example, Ukraine could, potentially offer to add provisions similar to those the Germans have in their law, against celebrating Nazism, and then go further by including the humanitarian offenses of the CCCP in those measures. Would that mess with Russian heads enough to be worth putting on the table?

Continuing to shine light on Russia's mendacity is important in maintaining the support of the rest of the world, and building the global consensus that Russia is the Bad Guy to increase the chances of their further isolation.

And admiting Ukraine has a Nazi problem, which it hasn't, thus feeding Russian propaganda. 

[SteelRain]

20 hours ago, kraze said:

Hey now, those refugees are guaranteed to stay warm.

Please Sir, at least try to hide your racist attitude a bit more. It's not the first time you exhibit such behavior. This and some other examples like the 2 numb nuts that were interviewed by the BBC wearing SS Deaths head Patches and some BS about Odin or Thor + Azov and Aidar support the fairy tale tellers in the Kremlin.

Edited April 16, 2022 by SteelRain

[kraze]

31 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

Please Sir, at least try to hide your racist attitude a bit more. It's not the first time you exhibit such behavior. This and some other examples like the 2 numb nuts that were interviewed by the BBC wearing SS Deaths head Patches and some BS about Odin or Thor + Azov and Aidar support the fairy tale tellers in the Kremlin.

I didn't realize disliking politicians with double standards is racism. Is the likes of Orban or Merkel a race? You mean pointing out that warming refugees with russian gas, buying which is why they were made refugees in the first place is me being a nazi? Oh noes!

As for Odin and Thor - I suggest you talk about them to upcoming nazis of Sweden and Finland.

Edited April 16, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

f there's a quibble to have with this, it's that the cultivation of fake sources, treating random contacts as producing agents, pocketing funding, concocting progress in unfriendly political environments, telling frightening bosses in Moscow pretty much whatever they want to hear was absolutely rampant in the KGB when Putin was an agent in Germany in the 1980's. As Masha Gessen puts it about one of Putin's tours:  "Putin and his colleagues were reduced mainly to collecting press clippings, thus contributing to the mountains of useless information produced by the KGB". 

This was the attitude that almost got everyone killed during the Able Archer 83 nuclear war scare.
Edit:

Thinking of it, is is not that bad of a parallel, maybe partially explaining how the FSB could've failed so much in it's intelligence gathering. As a person/ group of people who draw final conclusion from incoming reports will build a belief that something is going to happen (i.e. NATO is preparing to launch an attack or Ukrainians are going to fold and flee), every incoming report can be easily interpreted as corroborating it. The ones that oppose it are dismissed as fake/ untrustworthy/ maskirovka. This is not of course how intelligence work should work, but it might happen in a certain environment. It happened in 83 in USSR, arguably Iraqi WMDs could be another example.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Huba

[The Steppenwulf]

@kraze Both womble's comments and mine should be read with the word 'ostensible' inserted into the lines about what Russia wants in terms of negotiating aims. We are fully aware that there is a difference between what Russia states, and what they really mean or want, but the points are still correct within the given context.

Edited April 16, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[SteelRain]

36 minutes ago, kraze said:

I didn't realize disliking politicians with double standards is racism. Is the likes of Orban or Merkel a race? You mean pointing out that warming refugees with russian gas, buying which is why they were made refugees in the first place is me being a nazi? Oh noes!

Thank you for clarifying your Post. The lack of context in your first post lead me to completly miss the point.

 

49 minutes ago, kraze said:

As for Odin and Thor - I suggest you talk about them to upcoming nazis of Sweden and Finland.

I was refering to the combination of patches.

[LongLeftFlank]

Galeev sums up the pointless 'Nazis are whomever Holy Russia says they are' red herring quite nicely here.  Hopefully we can all move along.....

 

 

(Note: somebody will no doubt point out Galeev greatly exaggerates the influence of the Red Army in building up the prewar German war machine. I agree, he does. That isn't the relevant point here though)

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BeondTheGrave]

Interesting tidbit

 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, acrashb said:

Which makes me wonder what happens if Russian forces read this thread - there's no reason they wouldn't.

In the end I don't think they are operationally or tactically flexible enough to benefit from it.

I have considered this but I think the chance extremely remote.  

Also if any Russian command or staff are reading this then my advice is “quit now, surrender or mutiny and disperse”.   You are going to need a decade without a crippled economy to build the military they need to pull off this job.  Don’t do this job in the first place because it is a stain on the profession and historic disgrace.  You are not defending Russia, you are assisting in its destruction.  Get rid of the political rot in your government, they are driving you off a cliff out of greed, hubris and self-delusion.

And please come back to this thread for more free advice anytime you like.

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Interesting tidbit

 

Do we know if Russia has any capability in large bunker-busting munitions, akin to US MOP ? I know they have (used to have at least) large bombs up to 9 tons in their inventory, but as far as I can tell those were your typical HE bombs, probably not very useful against something designed to survive a nuclear blast. Any idea?

[Kraft]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

Do we know if Russia has any capability in large bunker-busting munitions, akin to US MOP ? I know they have (used to have at least) large bombs up to 9 tons in their inventory, but as far as I can tell those were your typical HE bombs, probably not very useful against something designed to survive a nuclear blast. Any idea?

They have been pulling these, posted some 200 pages agoOriginal source is Rus Telegram ~2? weeks ago as far as I can remember.

I can give no info on modern tech but looking at the state of this, I have doubts.

 

I hope this comment continues to age nicely

Edited April 16, 2022 by Kraft

[Huba]

Those can demolish anything above ground for sure, but against the nuclear bunkers ? Maybe collapse an entrance with a very lucky drop, but that's it I think.

[Kraft]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Those can demolish anything above ground for sure, but against the nuclear bunkers ? Maybe collapse an entrance with a very lucky drop, but that's it I think.

Yes, if the bunker complex is real and has been purpose built for this conflict, it will do nothing but move dirt or fall from rusty hinges on DPR conscript.

Updates from Azov appear to be from within a bunker if the leadership is in Mariupol which I think it is, because no war sounds in any video but always same underground background.

Maybe @Haiduk knows more about preparations in Mariupol, I know it was considered a Fortress already during the fight against Seperatists

Edited April 16, 2022 by Kraft