How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maquisard manqué]

44 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Good comic and a good rejoinder. I’m feeling uncomfortable!

Just to be clear, I said the above about the fellowship conscious that the Rohirim and Gondorians did almost all the fighting! 

Edited April 10, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[TheVulture]

 Fun implications on Russia's manpower problems from today's ISW update

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10

Quote

The Russian Defense Ministry is reportedly offering cash bonuses to incentivize forces withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to reenter combat operations. Radio Svoboda published images of a document on April 10 that it reported was issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense on April 2 offering specific bonuses for Russian troops in Ukraine.[1] The document specifies large payments including 300,000 rubles for destroying a fixed-wing aircraft, 200,000 for destroying a helicopter, and 50,000 for armored vehicles and artillery. Radio Svoboda stated the payments are intended to coerce units withdrawn from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions to reenter combat. We have previously reported several instances of Russian soldiers refusing orders to return to Ukraine after being pulled back.[2]

Russian forces are implementing increasingly draconian measures to conscript previously ineligible personnel. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 10 that Russian forces are now conscripting previously ineligible categories of people, including those with childhood disabilities and workers in protected industries.[3] The GUR reported that DNR/LNR authorities are enabling traffic inspectors to issue on-the-spot conscription notices and are establishing checkpoints on key highways. DNR and Russian military police are additionally reportedly destroying documents granting exemptions—such as medical records or work certificates—to forcibly conscript people.[4]

 

[sross112]

From today's ISW report:

Russian forces are implementing increasingly draconian measures to conscript previously ineligible personnel. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 10 that Russian forces are now conscripting previously ineligible categories of people, including those with childhood disabilities and workers in protected industries.[3] The GUR reported that DNR/LNR authorities are enabling traffic inspectors to issue on-the-spot conscription notices and are establishing checkpoints on key highways. DNR and Russian military police are additionally reportedly destroying documents granting exemptions—such as medical records or work certificates—to forcibly conscript people.[4]

So instead of handing out traffic citations their traffic police are issuing draft notices. I promise I'll never complain about a speeding ticket again!!!!

On a serious note there have been mentioned of increased conscription in the DNR and LNR areas a couple weeks ago. The Russians must be using human wave attacks to depopulate those areas and those are the places that are supposed to be Russian friendly. Sending skilled workers and physically unqualified into combat shows some pretty severe desperation.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, sross112 said:

From today's ISW report:

Russian forces are implementing increasingly draconian measures to conscript previously ineligible personnel. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 10 that Russian forces are now conscripting previously ineligible categories of people, including those with childhood disabilities and workers in protected industries.[3] The GUR reported that DNR/LNR authorities are enabling traffic inspectors to issue on-the-spot conscription notices and are establishing checkpoints on key highways. DNR and Russian military police are additionally reportedly destroying documents granting exemptions—such as medical records or work certificates—to forcibly conscript people.[4]

So instead of handing out traffic citations their traffic police are issuing draft notices. I promise I'll never complain about a speeding ticket again!!!!

On a serious note there have been mentioned of increased conscription in the DNR and LNR areas a couple weeks ago. The Russians must be using human wave attacks to depopulate those areas and those are the places that are supposed to be Russian friendly. Sending skilled workers and physically unqualified into combat shows some pretty severe desperation.

Somewhere in history there is a group that BLEEPED themselves worse than DNR/LNR folks, but I can't think of who. The Russians treat them like third rate serfs, and the Ukrainian opinion of them is......not good, let's say.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Haha but a bit more like this 

[chrisl]

29 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 Fun implications on Russia's manpower problems from today's ISW update

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10

 

Ukraine could offer Russian soldiers double that, and offer to pay in western currency.  It would both be a bargain for Ukraine and get rid of a lot of Russian materiel very quickly, since the Russian troops have better access.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Erwin said:

On February 26, Battlefront posted:  "I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest."

It's wonderful to have these discussion with you and everyone else.  But, the evidence seems to point towards a long-lasting stalemate.  Fortunately, this is not an abstract academic discussion, so we should know more RL results by May.

In many ways it was decided.  We knew the short war was gone as an outcome by the 5th day of this war.  All other options open to the Russians were consistently worse and worse, to the point that their initial concept of "winning" evaporated after the first week.  Then they re-defined winning several times since then to where we are right now - deeper in a strategic box of their own making.

As to long-term stalemate, well it might be an option but a lot has to happen for that to become a hard-wired reality and I disagree that "all evidence" points to this right now.  A stalemate means that both sides have run out of offensive options.  They have hit an equilibrium wherein one or both sides cannot conduct offensive operations without risking being able to continue defensive ones.  I can see Russia trying for this but again the frontages they are shooting for are simply too large.  They have walked back from 1300kms, to about 800, again the entire Western Front in WW1 was about 500-600 kms and both sides parked millions on that frontage in order to create a stalemate.  Russia is not going to be able to secure an airtight frontage of 800km with 200k or even 350k troops even if they rush those new recruits into service in weeks even with increased ranges and lethality of modern equipment.  Ukraine might be able to defend that frontage because just about every citizen left is going to be part of that defence and Ukraine has mobilized far more manpower.   If Russia goes full military mobilization, maybe but we are talking over 1 million troops at least, which might be tricky to equip at this point that they have left roughly 2750 vehicles and systems all over the Ukrainian countryside.

So we are likely to see a pretty porous frontage, assuming the current Russian offensive does not fall flat.  In this the UA methods of hybrid warfare (a combination of irregular and conventional) appears to work much better.  Russians really do not have a form of this at the tactical level so they are going to try and dig in and hold on as UA strikes their rear areas to distraction.  I mean technically they could pull this off with some sort of highly charged mobile defence in depth and waves of ISR but Russia has not demonstrated anything like this so far. 

The only way Russia can pull off a stalemate, which is about their best option right now, is to drastically reduce their frontages.  Of course they are going to bleed out even more in this ill advised pincer-move-in-the-making.  I avoid making predictions because they are really tenuous in these sorts of situations.  However, my bet is that Russian mass will carry them forward, raw dim-mass.  And they may even be able to pinch off this whole thing they are setting up...but then what?  How do you secure the line between Izyum and Donetsk? That is 130 kms with really pissed off, highly armed and depot stocked Ukrainians....on both sides.  I am sure there are visions of a glorious encirclement but its LOCs are going to be exposed from both sides and are going to get chopped to pieces.

So a lot of "ifs" here.  IF the Russians can employ their mass coherently across the entire operation.  IF they can establish air parity or at least deny the air above them (won't solve ATGM, arty or self-loitering but it might keep the big stuff off em).  IF they can actually gain a level of information parity and decision parity, which is by far one of their biggest sins this war.  IF the UA get rolled over and does not decide to attrit first and then save its mass in a c-attck.  IF they can hold the two pincer corridors long enough for the Hammer forces in the south to try and crush the "trapped" UA forces (assuming they don't pull out).  IF they can then do a whole bunch of pivots and relief/reinforcements in place to re-establish a very long frontage along their gains.  IF the UA then fail on the c-attks (because the conveniently got rolled over and left a lot of combat power in the pocket) and fail to erode the Russian LOCs.  THEN, maybe the Russians can get to a stalemate, declare victory and shoot for a ceasefire, or a long slog along a ridiculously long frontage while UA forces hit their rear areas. 

This whole, "let's take a badly mauled force, throw in a bunch of reserves with no real integration time, then try and execute one of the most difficult military operations possible against an even better armed and motivated opponent than the first time" plan, would be a hard fail at any war college but hey, let's see how it works out.

Edited April 10, 2022 by The_Capt

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Just to briefly call back to that UK ASM talking point.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512837866258419713?t=dHFviqY_y8YLe5CUL4oUmA&s=19

(Not sure if already posted)

And the Battle of Mariupol has now lasted longer that the 2nd Battle of Fallujah. And Hue.

I'm just wondering if the anti-ship missile might not actually be LMM/Martlet. The Ukrainians already have it and would appear to have shot down a drone using it. The weapon is designed to be capable against small boats and, although the RN uses it from helicopters, there seems to be apossible surface mount available.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martlet_(missile)

[Machor]

RE: Russian production capabilities

Orlan-10s will now be hard to manufacture, because... they require a commercial Canon photo camera.  (OK - They can probably switch to some Chinese camera - and you guys were mocking the bottle lid.  )

 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Many in Ukraine call Russia as Mordor, but.. no. What a f....g Mordor? Putin too ugly and paltry to be compared with evil lord %) Putin's Russia is Numenor of Ar-Pharason times ) Cult of Melkor (like a temple of War in Russia), cultivating of hate to West and it Lords, opression of Faithfuls and offering them as sacrifice to Melkor, Great Armament, Great Invasion to Valinor and... if you read Silmarillion, you should know  If not, you should read it after LoTR 

PS. Before 7 years in medieval re-enactment I about 6 years was a Tolkien-fan, participated in LARPs etc, was an archer  

And a huge Tolkien fan to boot! Haiduk, you continue to amaze me! My respect grows daily.

I’ve read all of the books by JRR. The only one I couldn’t finish was “Horn of Hurin” because it was just too dark and depressing for me. And now, I drop the Tolkien adoration. Sorry.

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Contemplating a decaying orbit in a malfunctioning spacecraft short-circuited by the free-floating graphite shards of a broken pencil point; trying desperately to solve the problem by sharpening the pencil some more and adding to the cloud of pencil shavings clogging the instruments.

58 minutes ago, womble said:

'Cept pencils shed graphite powder. Having conductive powder floating around a habitat that relies on sensitive electrics to maintain a survivable environment is... bold.

Urged on by this gentle mocking, I have become better acquainted with Wikipedia, destroying yet another comfortable myth acquired in childhood.  NASA did not spend millions on a zero-gee pen, and the Soviets used the privately-developed zero-gee pen as soon as it was available

Well, as Hapless acknowledged (thanks!), COTS is still a thing in military gear, I just picked a poor example to defend it!  Here is a very serious paper on the subject for those still interested and with an IEEE account: Commercial-off-the shelf (COTS): a challenge to military equipment reliability | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore - and something simpler from my frenemy, Wikipedia: Commercial off-the-shelf - Wikipedia  - it's a tidy summary of plusses and minuses of Mil-COTS.

My overall thesis is that there is enough wrong with the Soviet Russian prosecution of this war, and their equipment (either in design or maintenance or supply or effective usage or etc.) that we don't need to make up new, distracting, reasons for schadenfreude.
 

[Phantom Captain]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

LOL finally someone who's read the real book.  LOTR is just a small aside barely 6 pages or so.  Morgoth is the real deal.

And the Ukrainians have the Eagles!

 

[chuckdyke]

8 hours ago, asurob said:

The capacity we have for killing each other in mass and quickly has changed the nature of war completely. 

The 'War on Terror' Started by President Bush is still on going. We don't call war, war anymore but something else. Battles and campaigns don't last long. A war lasts as long till the other party surrenders. I can't see that happening for a few years. Putin may be toast by this summer, but I can't see the Kremlin surrendering. 

[Machor]

More evidence for 'guerrilla' TB2 operations: A mobile ground control station out and about in Odesa region:

 

[Ultradave]

19 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The 'War on Terror' Started by President Bush is still on going. We don't call war, war anymore but something else. Battles and campaigns don't last long. A war lasts as long till the other party surrenders. I can't see that happening for a few years. Putin may be toast by this summer, but I can't see the Kremlin surrendering. 

Not surrender, but cut losses and withdraw, and somehow claim victory - taught them a lesson, blah, blah. 

Dave

[akd]

Testimony from one of the remaining defenders of Mariupol:
 

 

[chuckdyke]

32 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Not surrender, but cut losses and withdraw, and somehow claim victory - taught them a lesson, blah, blah. 

Dave

They are beaten when they say they are beaten. Beating them up and then claiming victory is ludicrous. Cancer has the habit of regenerating. Here an Austrian perspective they were also a super power hundred years ago and have experience with Eastern Europe. It has English subtitles. They explain how the Ukrainian Forces deal with the Command and Control of the Russians. Better explained than the English speaking media. 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by chuckdyke

[dan/california]

https://acoup.blog/2021/09/17/collections-no-mans-land-part-i-the-trench-stalemate/

A really good essay on WWI trench warfare that might have some relevance for the coming clash in the Donbas.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

https://acoup.blog/2021/09/17/collections-no-mans-land-part-i-the-trench-stalemate/

A really good essay on WWI trench warfare that might have some relevance for the coming clash in the Donbas.

Yes, we only see the first trench usually. No communication trench command posts or the stores. 

[Rice]

Imagine if CM got as much dev time as this thread

[Benjamin Ritchie-Hook]

2 minutes ago, Rice said:

Imagine if CM got as much dev time as this thread

Yes, Cold War might finally solve its glaring omission of the Dutch armed forces.

[Fenris]

More "western media propaganda", we've really pulled out all the stops to discredit the glorious russian army haven't we.

 

 

[dan/california]

I suspect CM is getting plenty of love. But it is all for various MOD customers who have gone from interested too outright DEMANDING as they try replan a decade or two of procurement in light of what this war has revealed.

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Benjamin Ritchie-Hook said:

Yes, Cold War might finally solve its glaring omission of the Dutch armed forces.

Dutch Army, the BAOR and the Bundeswehr. I am just not interested in this game till they are included. Fair enough for a US resident to promote his country's contribution. Hope they enjoy themselves.  

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Fenris said:

More "western media propaganda", we've really pulled out all the stops to discredit the glorious russian army haven't we.

 

 

The Russian army has discredited ITSELF, utterly and completely. And it is going to pay for its crimes in the harshest way possible, massively increased NATO support for Ukraine, and far less pressure for the Ukrainians to accept a bad deal and let them off the hook. Hopefully another ten or twenty deserving Russian generals will be sunflower fertilizer by the time they give up and go home.